Targets and goal line carries are the lifeblood of quality fantasy production for the running back position. The starting role and receiving a high volume of carries is nice, but not near the end zone makes those touches empty-calorie opportunities. In short, they do not mean much. However, being a starter and high-volume back generally points to receiving more targets and goal-line chances for high fantasy-scoring plays. This weekly feature analyzes all 32 NFL depth charts for underrated and overrated running backs.
- Current RK: Team Ranking in Expected High-Leverage Opportunity PPR Points
- HLO: High-Leverage Opportunity Score Average Per Week
- GL: Rank in Goal-Line Carries (Inside the Five-Yard-Line)
- TGT: Rank in Team Running Back Targets
THE GOOD
Falcons
Atlanta had their best HLO weekly finish since Week 9 this past game. Bijan Robinson being utilized heavily in the passing game is a boon for the Falcons and also fantasy teams. They were 82% better than their weekly average and are now up to No.6 in running back targets on the season. Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson are in a full-blown committee on the rushing side of the backfield. The Falcons have one of the best aSOS running back matchups in Week 17 against Chicago.
Jets
New York rebounded from their season-worst No.29 HLO finish in Week 15 with a dominant showing and the top overall Week 16 finish, 99% higher than their weekly average. Breece Hall had a wide receiver-like receiving stat line this past week, fueling plenty of title game appearances in fantasy leagues. Israel Abanikanda has been elevated to the RB2 role over Dalvin Cook and could see extended time in Week 18 with the Jets out of the playoff race.
Cardinals
Arizona is surging with three top-five HLO finishes over their past four games. Emari Demercado has collected receiving production during the span. James Conner has 17.9 PPR points or more in each of the games as well. With another strong week, Arizona will climb out of the No.32 ranking on the season. Demercado is a quality dynasty stash for the offseason.
THE BAD
Bills
James Cook disappointed in Week 16, and Buffalo's No.32 HLO can be to blame. After averaging 4.8 targets over the past four games, Cook (and the entire running back position) was shut out of the passing game for targets from Josh Allen. Add in two fumbles, one lost, by Cook, and his 6.0 PPR points were his worst fantasy outing since Week 5. Leonard Fournette also rose to the RB2 role over Latavius Murray as a potential wild card factor for Buffalo down the stretch run.
Cowboys
Two of the worst three HLO weeks for Dallas have come over the past two games. Pollard was stuffed just short of a touchdown on the team's lone goal-line carry, which would have saved his fantasy day from his worst game of the season. Pollard had 43 total yards on 13 touches. Rico Dowdle, the clarified RB2 all season, is now out of time to benefit from a Pollard missed game for fantasy teams.
THE UGLY
Raiders
Las Vegas' swoon continues in the second half of the season and with their struggling quarterback play overall. Zamir White had a quality game fueled by a few chunk runs late in their win over Kansas City, but zero receptions and no goal-line opportunities led to White's 145 empty yards on the ground with no Josh Jacobs. Two weeks of starting opportunity for White has produced 39-214-1 rushing. With Jacobs' uncertain 2024 status, White is a quality stash for the offseason with possibilities of being the Raiders' Week 1 starter in a best-case scenario.
Vikings
Minnesota has arguably been the weakest HLO offense over the past month, finishing No.22 or lower every week. Ty Chandler has had a strong market share with Alexander Mattison missing time and now retaining the lead role despite Mattison being back. Week 16 was a trainwreck outcome, however, as they were 30th in HLO and only 39% of their weekly average, even as one of the weakest HLO teams in the NFL. Chandler survived with a rushing touchdown, but his 8-17-1 rushing stat line was a fraction of his Week 15 gem (157 total yards). Mattison is a dicey offseason proposition, losing his grip on the starting role and being pedestrian in his three months of starting time earlier this season.
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