Are you in or are you out?
At some point during every dynasty season an owner will ask themselves that question. Regardless of the answer, there are moves to be made. Objectivity is a fleeting thing amongst dynasty owners deciding their team direction and title chances. A fresh set of eyes are always helpful as rose-colored glasses are commonly worn by dynasty owners unwilling to let go of the current season. Over half of the fantasy regular season is in the rear-view mirror and now is the time to match acquisitions to team direction. Another installment of this will be released later this season outlining lower-tier players to stash from the waiver wire, but now is the time to trade. With the trade deadline looming, here are target players for both contending teams and ones looking to load up for next season:
Quarterback
Contenders
Peyton Manning is the ideal upgrade for a title-bound team. Outside of the strongest of contenders, Manning is not in the long-term plans. His ball is wobbling earlier than last season, but with the best quartet of targets in the league Manning does not need many deep balls to be one of the top fantasy options down the stretch. A late first round pick should get the deal done and is a worthwhile investment for strong teams relying in low QB1 or committee situations.
Pretenders
I continue to be impressed with Ryan Tannehill’s play week-in and week-out. His fantasy production is not matching the quick progressions he is making as a quarterback with limited career starts under his belt. Acquiring Tannehill as a QB2 now, especially as part of a bigger deal, will pay dividends in 2014 and beyond.
Terrelle Pryor is still developing as a pocket passer. The good news is his rushing production buffers the learning curve with fantasy points along the way. There are not many young options with QB1 upside on the quarterback landscape right now. Pryor fits that criteria and the general dynasty marketplace is still lagging behind on the trade market.
Jay Cutler is still out for a few more weeks, but he was still thought of as a committee option prior to injury. Cutler was top-8 in points-per-game in his full games this season and would be an inexpensive QB1 next season for teams looking to invest their capital elsewhere in the offseason. Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, and Martellus Bennett are an enviable trio of targets for Cutler.
Running Back
Contenders
The latest news is that Denver wants to dial down Knowshon Moreno’s workload down the stretch. While that is great in theory, Moreno is Peyton Manning’s security blanket in the backfield in regards to pass protection and doing all the little things well. With this news, Moreno’s trade value may have some cracks in the foundation especially for teams looking ahead to next season. With strong weekly running back options at a premium in start-two leagues, Moreno should be a strong target if he is on a non-playoff team.
Danny Woodhead is one of the most underrated short-term running back options. He has a very defined role in the San Diego backfield with a high weekly floor. Through Week eight, Woodhead has six straight games of 13 or more PPR points, including two performances of at least 20 points. That is with the oft-injured Ryan Mathews healthy. Mathews is on pace for a career-high number of carries this season, so color me skeptical that he makes it through the second half of the season unscathed. If Mathews misses a few weeks, Woodhead may very well be a top-5 weekly play down the stretch.
Pretenders
The Trent Richardson hype train is losing steam by the week as he continues to put up unspectacular stat lines since his trade to Indianapolis. The detractors will point to Donald Brown outperforming him, other running backs performing despite questionable blocking in front of them, and Richardson just plain not looking good regardless of the numbers. Richardson has looked better on film than his numbers suggest and the young running backs with a starting job on the dynasty landscape are few and far between. For teams willing to focus on potential production in future seasons, Richardson still holds RB1 upside if things come together. Considering the discount from just two months ago, it is worth inquiring if contending teams are looking for more dependable short-term production.
David Wilson’s story over the last two months has been enough for a full-length movie. Brandon Jacobs’ big game and Giants offensive line actually blocking well just when Wilson is out of the lineup was the cherry on top. Now, Wilson has a neck injury that clouds his future more than just the depth chart mind games and periodic fumbles. One recent deal was getting Wilson for Chris Johnson straight up, a worthwhile move for non-contending teams.
Wide Receiver
Contenders
While Tampa Bay may be imploding before our very eyes, Vincent Jackson is on pace for more than 200 targets. With Mike Williams out for the rest of the season, there really is little else in the passing game. Jackson’s age may scare some dynasty owners away, especially those out of the playoff race, but he is a rock solid WR1 for contending teams for the price of a WR2 or less.
Anquan Boldin should come far cheaper than Vincent Jackson in the trade market as he is older, has a lower weekly upside, and resides on a team far more committed to the run game. That said, he is a worthwhile addition for a later second round rookie pick or less. With four more bye weeks and functioning as injury insurance, Boldin can be an important depth receiver for competing teams.
Pretenders
Michael Floyd is working on five straight games with 11 points or more in PPR scoring. The Cardinals passing game is crumbling thanks to Carson Palmer and the offensive line, but Floyd is developing into a quality receiver through it all. Larry Fitzgerald may be on the move in the offseason and, at a minimum, Floyd will be toe-to-toe with Fitzgerald going forward in terms of target distribution if both are in Arizona. Paying anything less than WR15 prices for Floyd is a quality investment.
Aaron Dobson and Kenbrell Thompkins are in a dead heat in terms of PPR points-per-game on the season. After Thompkins had more snaps than Dobson in the first five games of the season, it is Dobson that has more playing time in two of the last three weeks. Dobson projects as the prototypical outside receiver that has a better chance at future impactful fantasy production. Recent trades include obtaining Dobson for a late first round pick or equivalent value.
Tight End
Contenders
Like Anquan Boldin, Vernon Davis is one of the few reliable targets in San Francisco’s passing game. Michael Crabtree may be back, but that is tentative until more details are known. Davis has the weekly upside to match the top tight ends like Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski. Davis has an unreal 24% touchdown rate through eight weeks. Considering Davis is the 49ers sole deep threat and a matchup nightmare downfield, even tempered expectations in the second half of the season can project a half a touchdown per game.
Antonio Gates is the poor man’s version of Vernon Davis for contending teams to acquire. Gates has had at least a 10% touchdown rate in every season since 2003. Thus far in 2013, Gates’ touchdown rate is just 4.8% and on pace for over 120 targets. This may be the last ride for Gates as a top-6 tight end option, but the schedule is lining up well down the stretch. The Chargers face just one pass defense in the top-10 the rest of the way and San Diego’s questionable defense will allow for their fair share of shootouts. Looking at recent deals, a late second or even a third round rookie pick may get Gates away from a rebuilding team.
Pretenders
Kyle Rudolph has just two gates with double-digit PPR points on the season and the Vikings are lost on offense, especially under center. Rudolph is not a special athlete, but his hands are rock-solid as well as his work in the red zone. With Adrian Peterson on the downside of a running back’s production curve and a quarterback situation that can only improve, Rudolph is an ideal stash for the future. He is not close to starting lineups for true contenders and is another tight end on the market in the range of a second round pick-type asset.
Robert Housler has enviable physical attributes, but like teammates Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd, it is tough to produce in Arizona’s offense. Housler is way off the radar in terms of being a weekly starter at TE37 in PPR points-per-game through eight weeks with just two games of more than one reception. The strength of schedule is tough for the rest of the season, which will keep Housler cost to acquire low into the offseason. Housler’s physical upside and low cost are an ideal combination for a cheap TE2 or TE3.