Crunch time is upon us! All of our time and effort comes down to this four game stretch. Even is you are a game or two under the .500 mark heading into week ten, do not despair and absolutely do not throw in the towel if you are not mathematically eliminated. This game is all about getting hot at the right time and that time begins now.
Arizona Cardinals
At a glance the matchup with a struggling Houston team might seem a little questionable. The numbers suggest otherwise however. The Texans suddenly have reason for optimism at quarterback and despite being battered at the running back position, they continue to answer the bell with a solid power running game. Karlos Dansby and Daryl Washington are matchup proof every week starters for us and should be highly productive this week. Tyrann Mathieu is a bit of a risk when it comes to a possible part time role, but his steady production and upside make him a worthy risk for most of us. The guy I want to talk about here is strong safety Yeremiah Bell. He has been somewhat inconsistent in general but consider that Bell has totaled 12 or more fantasy points in four of his last six games. Also consider that in recent weeks three safeties have recorded 7 or more solo stops versus the Texans. Surprisingly Bell is on the waiver wire in a lot of leagues. He should certainly be on a roster in twelve team leagues that start three, and should be in a lot of lineups this week as well.
Atlanta Falcons
strong safety William Moore started hot but has exceeded 8 fantasy points just once since week three. Despite the disappointing season, he is a guy that deserves consideration this week based on a matchup with the Seahawks. The Seattle/St. Louis game in week eight was a fluke. Take that game out of the mix and since week five we have seen Yeremiah Bell go 7-0, Bernard Pollard 6-3-1 and last week Mark Barron 10-1 with a pick in the other three games.
Sean Weatherspoon is expected to practice late this week and is close to getting back on the field. This is the time to move on him if you want to avoid competition for his services. Weatherspoon will assume his every down role as soon as he is healthy enough. That could be as soon as this week. He would be a risky play in his first game back, but would have strong potential with this matchup.
Baltimore Ravens
Daryl Smith has been a quality start for us on most weeks and should be in our lineups this week against the Bengals. Over the past five weeks Brandon Spikes, Jerod Mayo, Kiko Alonso, Stephen Tulloch, DeAndre Levy and Phillip Wheeler have all recorded 7 or more solo tackles against Cincinnati. Most of those players totaled at least fifteen fantasy points.
Carolina Panthers
For the second consecutive week we need to consider other options at defensive end than Greg Hardy or Charles Johnson. This week's matchup with the 49ers is a good one for tackle producing Panthers Luke Kuechly, Thomas Davis and Mike Mitchell, but San Francisco ranks seventh having allowed only 15 sacks to date and just 5 total over the past five games.
Quintin Mikell and Robert Lester shared the strong safety position almost equally in week nine. The playing time did not seem to be based on any particular defensive packages and had no rhyme or reason. The bottom line here is that the this high potential position has been rendered useless until/unless something changes.
Chicago Bears
The good news for those who picked up Jon Bostic last week is that he was indeed on the field for all 55 defensive snaps. The bad news is that he was somehow unable to take full advantage of the opportunity when it comes to box score production. Bostic played better than his 3-1 total would suggest. The Lions have been a quality matchup for inside linebackers. Over their past four games they have helped A.J. Hawk to go 7-2 with a pass defended, Craig Robertson 6-2-1 and most recently Sean Lee 7-3 with a pair of picks heading into their week nine bye. It would be a leap of faith or maybe a matter of desperation to start Bostic this week but there are a lot of worse options. Khaseem Greene was slightly ahead of Bostic in fantasy points but do not let that fool you. Greene played just 24 of 55 snaps against Green Bay.
Cincinnati Bengals
With Rey Maualuga out and Taylor Mays landing on IR last week, the Bengals gave us a pair of new three down players. Vincent Rey stepped in at middle linebacker and put up a respectable 5 solo stops. That may not seem like much but consider that he was tied with Vontaze Burfict as the team's second leading tackler in the game. Rey has the potential to be a solid LB3 for the the next few weeks until Maualuga returns.
The other development is at safety where George Iloka has finally taken on an every down role. He led the team with 6 solo stops against Miami. Baltimore is an average at best matchup for safeties so I would not rush out and pick up Iloka to start this week. On the other hand, his week nine production is not going to garner a lot of attention so he will still be available down the road. Cincinnati has a string of matchups from weeks thirteen to fifteen that could make Iloka a sneaky DB3 option for your playoff run.
Dallas Cowboys
For anyone who was still holding onto hope for Bruce Carter, the time has come to move on. He has been splitting time with Ernie Sims for the past few weeks. In week nine he was bumped from the starting lineup and saw action on just 32 snaps.
The Cowboys got some good news this week when DeMarcus Ware returned to practice. The word is that he will not only play in week ten but will have a full workload. New Orleans has been a tough matchup for pass rushers on most weeks, but Ware has fresh legs and is worthy of strong starting consideration.
Denver Broncos
Wesley Woodyard has yet to put up more than 5 solo tackles in a game this season and has been much less productive than we expected heading into the campaign. He missed weeks six and seven with an injury before returning with a modest 4-1 against Washington in week eight. Coming out of the bye week he should be completely healthy and will have a good chance to redeem himself with fantasy owners against a Chargers team that continues to be a strong matchup for linebackers. Week nine saw London Fletcher and Perry Riley add their names to a long list of linebackers that have put up quality tackle numbers against the Chargers. Danny Trevathan has become a solid starting option for us on most weeks. He is a must start with this matchup and Woodyard is a worthy gamble as an LB3 with upside this week.
Detroit Lions
The Bears have been a strong matchup for tackle producing IDPs but keep in mind that only Detroit and Denver have allowed fewer sacks than Chicago's 12. Chances are no one is counting on Ezekial Ansah, Willie Young or any other Lions pass rusher at this point, but even if you are reaching for a starter this week, those guys should get little consideration.
Green Bay Packers
Injuries have hit the Packers hard on both sides of the ball this season. The loss of Aaron Rodgers is one that will have a big effect on the defense as well. Green Bay will not be playing with a lead as often which will mean fewer pass rush opportunities. The other side of the coin is that the defense is likely to spend more time on the field. More tackle opportunity could be a significant plus for Morgan Burnett, A.J. Hawk and Brad Jones. One of the things we were watching in week nine was the snap count of Jones. It was no shock to see that the coaching staff limited his snaps to 43 of a possible 77 in an effort to ease him back into action after the injury. Jones came through the Bears game healthy and should be ready to assume his normal three down role this week against the Eagles. A.J. Hawk has been an every down player while Jones was recovering. Philadelphia has been a quality matchup for inside linebackers so one of these guys would seem to be in line for a strong game. We have no way of knowing for certain which one that will be, but my money is on Jones.
Clay Matthews is expected to give it a go in practice this week to see if he can play in week ten. His return would give the team a much needed emotional boost but I have to wonder how effective he can be with his broken thumb in a club like cast?
Houston Texans
The week nine box scores will leave a lot of owners sour on D.J. Swearinger Sr after his disappointing production. If you are one of the many owners who picked him up last week, I suggest you look a little deeper before throwing him back in the pond. Shilo Keo managed to lead the Texans in tackles with 6 solo stops while Swearinger had only 2. Many will incorrectly read between the lines and assume that the two safeties shared a position and that Keo received the majority of the playing time. That however, was not the case at all. Swearinger not only started at strong safety, he was one of only four Texans defenders that participated in every defensive snap. Keo surprisingly started at free safety ahead of Ed Reed. In fact, Keo played 49 of 63 snaps at the position while Reed was on the field for 32 total plays. The disappointing numbers for Swearinger had much more to do with the stagnant running game of the Colts. Be patient with Swearinger. He is the hands down favorite to man the Texans strong safety position long term and should be a solid matchup based starter for us down the stretch. Particularly in the week sixteen matchup against Denver.
Darryl Sharpton was healthy enough to get the start against Indianapolis, was another of the four full time defenders for the Texans and finished second in tackles against the Colts (albeit with only 4 solo stops). He came through the game no worse for wear and will get the call again in week ten against a Cardinals squad that has been a decent matchup for linebackers over the past several games.
Indianapolis Colts
Pat Angerer has struggled with injury and inconsistency this season but appears to finally be healthy. He has been a full time player in each of the Colts last two games, has posted 14.5 and 15.75 fantasy points respectively in those two games, and was the top point scorer on the Indianapolis defense in week nine. Looking down the road, the Colts have a strong matchup with Zach Stacy and the Rams this week as well as a string of games versus the Bengals, Texans and Chiefs starting in week fourteen. Get this guy on your roster if you can and put him in your week ten lineup.
Miami Dolphins
We entered week nine looking for a sign that Cameron Wake was back at full strength. With 5 tackles, 3 sacks a forced and a recovered fumble against the Bengals, I would say he put up a billboard. Granted the Bengals were without starting left tackle Andrew Whitworth, but Wake was clearly his normal dominant self. The Dolphins have another matchup with a good pass blocking team in the Buccaneers but Wake is a must play against anyone going forward.
New Orleans Saints
David Hawthorne's role and production continue to grow. Over the past four games he is 21-7-3 with a forced fumble. Hawthorne has averaged a little over 12.5 points a game over that span and for the first time this year he was on the field for all (62) of the Saints defensive snaps in week nine. His expanded may be a result of injuries at safety, but his play and production are likely to keep him in the game more regularly going forward even when everyone is healthy. With San Francisco, Seattle, St. Louis and Carolina (twice) on the upcoming schedule, Hawthorne has a strong shot at becoming an every week LB3 option down the stretch.
Kenny Vacarro was able to return to action in week nine while both Malcolm Jenkins and Roman Harper were sidelined for the game with their sore knees. Harper returned to practice on a limited basis last week and could be back in action as early as this Sunday. Jenkins has not yet practiced and there is speculation he may be a couple of weeks away. If you need to move early to beat the competition in your league, Harper could prove to be an excellent stretch run addition.
New York Giants
The move to strong safety has been a factor in the recent upswing of fantasy production by Antrel Rolle. What remains to be seen is if he will be moved back to free safety this week when/if Ryan Mundy returns, or if the Giants coaching staff has decided to leave Will Hill in the lineup. With the defense suddenly playing better during the current two game win streak, I am guessing they will leave the lineup as it was in week eight when they held the Eagles to 7 points. The Raiders have been a strong matchup for linebackers and above average for safeties in recent weeks. That points toward both Rolle and Jon Beason having good numbers for us in week ten.
New York Jets
The Jets are on bye this week but I wanted to mention Antonio Allen one more time anyway. Last week I suggested putting him into your lineup against the Saints. At a glance his 4-2 with a pass defended will seem like marginal production for such high praise. Before writing him off as the rant of a crazy man with sleep deprivation, consider that Allen played 40 snaps or about half of the game before going out with a concussion. He was on pace for about 18 fantasy points before the injury. With the bye week to rest up and recover Allen should be a go when the Jets return to action.
Oakland Raiders
After sitting out some of the sub package snaps in week eight, Kevin Burnett was back in his every down role against the Eagles on Sunday. He has not given us double digit points since week five but it is worth note that the Raiders have a murders row of quality matchups during the fantasy playoffs. Their schedule starts with the Jets in week fourteen followed by the Chiefs, Chargers and Broncos. So long as Burnett continues to hold that every down role he should be an excellent matchup based LB3 during that stretch.
Seattle Seahawks
It took a while but in week ten Bobby Wagner finally looked like the stud linebacker many of us drafted. His 18 fantasy points against Tampa Bay were a season high but most importantly he looked completely recovered from the ankle injury. The Seahawks have an average schedule down the stretch for the most part but the quality of his play make him an every week start going forward, regardless of the matchup.
St. Louis Rams
James Laurinaitis and Alec Ogletree have been every week starters for us regardless of matchup. This week however, it might be prudent of us to at least look hard at our list of options. Since week five no linebacker has exceeded 5 solo tackles against the Colts with only one player putting up more than four. Safeties have fared a little better with this matchup but the Rams safety situation gives us little to work with at this point.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This week's matchup with the Dolphins is the reason you have been sitting on Adrian Clayborn and/or Gerald McCoy all season. Or maybe it is the reason you should go pick them up. I for one have heard about all I can stand on the Jonathan Martin and Richie Incognito situation. It would be wonderful if the press would report this kind of thing and then move on to "football" issues until/unless there was something new to report. Instead they insist on beating the dead horse over and over again. The impact that matters to IDP owners is that Miami will now be missing two more starters from an offensive line that was already struggling greatly. The Buccaneers (and particularly this defensive unit) are a much better team than their 0-8 record would suggest. They are certainly good enough to take advantage of this situation.
Tennessee Titans
Colin McCarthy has produced double digit fantasy points in consecutive games for the first time since 2011. He was quick, aggressive and decisive against the Rams. More so in fact, than I have seen at any time since his injury two seasons ago. On the other hand, he continues to work in a two down role and is not seeing much f any action in sub packages. With his level of play against the Rams it may not be long before McCarthy reclaims his full time job and the leadership role he was building on two seasons ago. A matchup with the struggling Jaguars is all the reason we should need to sit McCarthy in week ten, but we will certainly be watching to see what his role will be this week.
That will do it for the week ten edition. Keep up the intensity for just a few more weeks a as always, Just Win Baby!
