I’ve written about what’s caught my eye over the past four months – including articles on coaching and scheme change issues and free agency developments and draft commentaries along with my combined draft board feature and tier updates at defensive line, linebacker and defensive back. But there are still lots of questions to be answered as we approach training camp and the regular season. So, this week’s RTD is focused on questions I’ve received on Twitter and on our IDP Forum at Footballguys over the past week.
I may gently edit some of the questions and I can’t promise to avoid all clichés, but unlike Jim Schwartz and Marvin Lewis, I’ll make every effort to actually answer the questions.
Special thanks to IDP forum posters Young 8 and themojoworkin, who provided many great questions for discussion.
What are the falcons to do without Sean Weatherspoon? Who plays alongside Paul Worrilow? Is there an immediate pickup here?
[ via @JeneBramel ]
Hopefully, the old saying that things happen in threes means that Sean Weatherspoon, who is likely done for the season after tearing his Achilles tendon this week, is the last of the every-down linebackers to see his season end before training camp begins.
It's already been a season of change for the Falcons, who made moves in free agency and the draft suggesting that they'd line up in a 3-4 front on base defensive downs this season, then confirmed that suspicion by showing that look often in OTAs. Weatherspoon was expected to play every down at strong inside linebacker, with Paul Worrilow the heavy favorite to play every down at weak inside backer.
There are two possible options to replace Weatherspoon, with one being much more likely than the other.
First, the unlikely option. There's already speculation that rookie Prince Shembo will get a serious look at stepping into the lineup immediately. Unfortunately, he wasn't an inside linebacker at Notre Dame and his best attribute is probably his pass rushing ability. I think it's unlikely that he transitions smoothly, if at all, and I doubt we'll see him take many snaps inside until midseason, at the earliest.
The other option is a known commodity and, barring a surprise veteran signing, the much likelier option. And that's Joplo Bartu. But, with the change to the 3-4 base front, this isn't as simple as sliding Bartu into Weatherspoon's slot as the Falcons did last year. Bartu weighs 230 pounds and while he wasn't terrible at shedding blocks and holding the point of attack at LOLB last year, it's not an ideal role. His best fit would be at weak inside backer, with Worrilow moving into a strong inside role. That's not a bad band-aid, but it's likely not what Mike Nolan had in mind.
Another consideration would be to scrap the 3-4 base and go back to last year's ROLB - LOLB setup. The defensive line / outside linebacker depth chart would support that decision, but additions Paul Soliai, Tyson Jackson and Ra'Shede Hageman are best suited to the 3-4 and the Falcons are hoping for a splash from Jonathan Massaquoi (more on that in a later question) at outside linebacker. And Mike Smith seemed committed to staying the course when addressing the media on Weatherspoon's injury.
So the add here is clearly Bartu, but I wouldn't expect LB2 upside despite the potential to hold down an every-down WILB gig.
We always hear about the importance of tiering players, but rarely hear about the process. Could you elaborate on tiering in general, and any tinkering you do with it?
[ via IDP Forum @spavogt ]
Before I transitioned from ordered rankings to tiers, I did a full set of projections as a starting point for my rank list. I felt the projections were invaluable to the process but flawed. It was hard to show a range of expectation in a single projection line or the rankings. It was hard to show a confidence level in a single projection line. There were times I felt comfortable with a projection but not where that projection slotted a player in the rankings.
While I don’t do specific projections anymore, certain plateaus stick in my head as natural cutoff points for each tier. They are derived from years of following statistics and year-end IDP rankings.
Linebackers with a strong chance at 100+ solo tackles and a reasonable floor of 90+ solo tackles are elite fantasy talents and get slotted into the Elite LB1 tier. Linebackers with 100+ solo tackle upside, but an unclear ceiling or a risky floor are slotted into the Elite LB1 upside or Risk-Reward LB tiers depending on how high I feel their ceiling may be or how risky their floor may be. I have similar plateaus in mind for defensive lineman and defensive backs.
That’s why some tiers are 10-15 players deep and others include just two or three.
I try not to tinker much. My first tiers are based on my assessment of talent, surrounding cast, expected snap count, scheme, recent trends, possible competition, durability risk and more. There’s a lot of thought that goes into the first set of tiers and it naturally results in a reluctance to move players significantly from their original tier.
If I’m unsure of where a player fits or still feel there’s a wide range of expectation due to unanswered questions about snap count or role, I’ll leave a player in the Tier Jumper or Watch List category until I have a clearer idea of their value. The Tier Jumper group will be nearly empty by the third week of training camp. The ability to discuss those uncertainties was a big driving force behind adding tables and comments to this year’s tier articles.
Who do you think are the most overrated (or overdrafted based on ADP) IDP players for 2014?
[ via IDP Forum @Schulz ]
I'll have a clearer answer on this when the ADP data is robust enough to see a good trend. I'll also be detailing my under and overvalued players by position in future RTD articles again this July.
For now, I think that Olivier Vernon, Kiko Alonso, D'Qwell Jackson, Earl Thomas and Matt Elam are prime candidates to be overvalued this summer. I'd have absolutely had Barry Church on that list before Sean Lee's latest injury.
Do you see any impact on Lavonte David's production in Lovie Smith’s system?
[ via Twitter @TonyD_12 ]
The Tampa-2 base defense has always been one of the most favorable systems for weak side linebackers. (If you’re interested in the history of the Tampa-2 and why the weak side backer often gets a statistical bump, see this installment of my Guide to NFL Defenses) David is a perfect fit for the Tampa-2, so it follows that Smith’s playbook should have a positive impact on David’s numbers.
Unfortunately, it’s not that simple.
Smith doesn’t run the most traditional of Tampa-2 systems. He’s more aggressive. And there really is no “base defense” any longer. Teams play multiple fronts and spend more time than ever in subpackages to combat multi-receiver offensive sets. So the Bucs aren’t likely to play many traditional Tampa-2 snaps. But both of those factors play to David’s strengths (aggressive downhill run defense and elite coverage instincts), however, so no harm there.
The real question here is whether there’s any more value that David can squeeze out of his snaps. According to Pro Football Focus, David played 1048 snaps last season. He had 105 solos and 39 assists. He had a total of 30 quarterback pressures, hits and sacks (the NFL credited him with six sacks). Receivers in his zone were targeted 81 times (he had five interceptions and the NFL credited him with nine passes defensed). Lovie Smith’s playbook won’t negatively impact David’s opportunity in any way, but he’s arguably already at his statistical ceiling.
Who's the sleeper pickup in the dallas secondary with Sean Lee gone for the year?
[ via IDP Forum @spavogt]
I don't think there will be an undervalued IDP in the Dallas secondary this year. Barry Church will be highly sought after this summer and will rightly come off the board in or around the top five safeties. I like the upside of J.J. Wilcox and Morris Claiborne, but I don't think either are likely enough to hit their ceiling to be worth a draft pick.
Any concerns with Sean Lee or are his injuries of the variety that do not lead to long term effects on play?
[ via IDP Forum @themojoworkin ]
Sean Lee's medical file now includes ACL tears to both knees (one in college), torn ligaments in his neck, a plantar plate tear in his foot, a mid-grade hamstring injury and a dislocated wrist.
I've long been on record that the term "injury prone" is too often applied incorrectly and should be used more as a description of a player's past history rather than as a prediction for the future. But every injury on the list above is a soft tissue injury and all of them have been mid-grade or worse, costing Lee at least 3-4 weeks and often much longer. There isn't anything specific to any of those injuries that would keep Lee from playing at a high level in the future. But if I were to flag a player as a high risk of future injury, Lee would definitely make the cut.
Who is your first IDP LB off the board: Mosley or Shazier? (solo tackle heavy)
[ via Twitter @Victor0547 ]
I gave Mosley a late first round grade and Shazier an early third round grade in the first version of my combined draft board. But I’m still conflicted on Shazier. The Steelers are going to play him at weak inside linebacker. He’ll still have to shed blocks, but fewer than he would at any other position in the front seven. Shazier is also already seeing time with the first team, another strong sign that the Steelers are hoping he’ll be base defense material right away. I’m still concerned about his instincts and inconsistency in coverage and tackling, but I won’t argue with anyone who feels Shazier is worth a mid-second round pick.
If you’re looking to tier Mosley and Shazier for a 2014 redraft league, I think both belong in the Upside LB3 group for now. Both could move into the Risk-Reward LB2 tier if they’re confirmed as every-down linebackers.
The DL1 w/ Elite Upside tier is huge and listed top-down in order of highest floor. But could you offer additional early evaluation and gut feel as to who from this group is most likely to break out (return) to the Elite tier in terms of sacks (i.e. 15+)?
[ via IDP Forum @PhantomJB ]
There are three veterans I think could put up a mid double digit sack season: Demarcus Ware, Cameron Wake and Jason Pierre-Paul. If Pierre-Paul is healthy -- and he says he's back to the playing weight at which he had his best seasons and feels fully recovered from back surgery -- he is a strong bet to reclaim his elite tier status.
I have Ezekiel Ansah listed at the end of the tier currently, but he fits the same athletic and powerful mold that breakout plays like Pierre-Paul, Chandler Jones and Robert Quinn showed in past seasons. If there's to be a young player breakout this season, I'd put my money on Ansah.
Is Wesley Woodyard going to be a fantasy monster with the Titans if he stays healthy?
[ via IDP Forum @Young 8 ]
There's absolutely elite upside with Woodyard. Local writers already believe he's a lock to stick as the every-down weak inside linebacker, a position that has provided very favorable numbers for Daryl Washington and D'Qwell Jackson under Ray Horton. Durability and/or a surprise leap in play from Zach Brown would be the main factors that could keep Woodyard out of the top 20 overall linebackers. If Horton gives Woodyard the same pass rush opportunity he did Washington (10 sacks in 2012) and Jackson (just one sack but rushed on 15% of all quarterback drops last year per PFF), he could crack the top ten.
How will the puzzle pieces fit at ILB in Baltimore? How much of a role will Arthur Brown have this year?
[ via IDP Forum @themojoworkin ]
So there's no confusion here, I think Brown is a talented linebacker. I had concerns about his transition to inside linebacker last year, but I stand by my high ranking of him based on what looked to be great opportunity. A sports hernia in the preseason, the June signing and tremendous play of Daryl Smith and a midseason ankle injury all conspired to limit Brown's practice reps and developmental time as a rookie. Don't cross him off rank lists or cut him in deeper leagues.
But Mosley is a better fit for Baltimore than Brown. He's the best all-around talent to come out of Alabama in a long time, at least on par and probably better than Rolando McClain and DeMeco Ryans. He may have been drafted as the best player available on Ozzie Newsome's board, but I think he gets every opportunity to start immediately. And he's strong enough in coverage to keep Brown off the field in subpackages, too. In fact, if Brown does beat Mosley out for playing time in either package or in rotation this year, it's a very good sign for his long term potential.
There will be many linebacker battles to watch in camp, but this one is near the top of the list.
In tackle-heavy leagues, LB value in 4-3 schemes typically breaks down: MLB > WLB > SLB. Talent aside, I've always struggled determining which ILB spot is more favorable in a 3-4 scheme. With new ILB's in Arizona, Cleveland and Pittsburgh moving Timmons from one ILB spot to the other (while adding Shazier) I find the distinction more important than ever. Could you please explain the different roles/responsibilities and the fantasy implications of SILB vs WILB in a 3-4 scheme?
[ via IDP Forum @J Giles Band ]
This is a question that's difficult to answer in a Q&A setting.
There isn't a single "3-4 front" in use in the NFL today. Most base 3-4 teams use 1-gap concepts and function more like 4-3 fronts in many situations. Some of those looks ask the strong inside linebacker to take on blocks and function like a 4-3 strong side backer, while the weak inside linebacker functions more like a 4-3 middle linebacker. Others protect the weak inside linebacker well enough that he's more comparable to a 4-3 weak side backer. Some playbooks don't shift their inside backers according to strength or play two-gap principles along the line, making for no clear distinction between the two linebackers. Others use a combination of 2-gap and 1-gap principles along the defensive line, giving each inside backer different responsibilities depending on which lineman is playing which technique.
In the past, I used to note which team leaned toward 1-gap fronts (Phillips, Nolan, etal) and which leaned toward 2-gap fronts (LeBeau, Belichick, Crennel, etal). That's because the weak inside linebacker in most 1-gap fronts was clearly in the best role for fantasy production. But there's too much variation in playbooks anymore. And, although one could probably chart the number of snaps with three linebackers vs four linebackers, there's enough variation within the fronts themselves that even that distinction may be too general now. It's also important to note that teams are playing fewer and fewer base defensive snaps. A player may only see 350-500 snaps a season in his "base" defense.
In general, all other factors being equal, it's best to lean toward the 3-4 WILB. But, as I argued in the coach and scheme change article earlier this year, scheme and role within the scheme is becoming much less important to fantasy value than it used to be. Now, I think fantasy owners need to consider expected snap count, role in subpackages and value of the surrounding cast in all packages as critical factors to opportunity. Scheme and role in the base defense plays a role in that assessment, but it should no longer be weighted as strongly.
Consider how things changed in San Francisco when NaVorro Bowman took over at strong inside backer next to Patrick Willis. Or how the stats morphed when Karlos Dansby joined Daryl Washington in Arizona. Gone are the days when you could write the RILB down in ink as a stud IDP option -- as Donnie Edwards, Ray Lewis, Jamie Sharper, Patrick Willis, Jerod Mayo and many others drove a strong trend. Now, you must think twice before dismissing every-down strong inside backers with the skill set of Bowman and Dansby. This year, that means that Lawrence Timmons may not see a value hit unless Ryan Shazier is an immediate stud talent. The same holds for Daryl Smith and Larry Foote.
Who's going to play defensive end opposite Dunlap in Cincinnati?
[ via IDP Forum @Young 8 ]
The Bengals are likely to use a rotation of Wallace Gilberry and Margus Hunt, with Gilberry potentially moving inside to tackle in subpackages. If Hunt shows he can be effective against the run in the preseason, I think he'll get the majority of base defensive snaps. But both players could see 600+ snaps this season.
Koa Misi seems to be a liability on passing downs. Has he improved or is this a wake up call to Dannell Ellerbe and Philip Wheeler?
[ via IDP Forum @themojoworkin ]
Misi hasn't been terrible in coverage, but his role there has been limited. He's not been asked to play coverage often and he's never been asked to do so from an inside linebacker position. Miami's decision to move him inside and take a long look at his nickel coverage ability is an extension of what the team was doing late last year -- looking at other options to replace the disappointing additions they made in free agency.
The Dolphins clearly want to see Misi succeed inside and I think Misi will stick at middle linebacker. I'm not convinced he'll play in the nickel yet, however. I think one of those spots goes to Jelani Jenkins. Ellerbe and Misi will compete for the inside linebacker spot in the nickel. If Jenkins develops against the run, Wheeler won't see many snaps this year.
How come you're pretty low on Jamie Collins especially when he is solid in coverage for 3 down wlb spot?
[ via IDP Forum @jacobo_moses ]
If you're convinced that Collins will be the every-down weak side linebacker for New England this year, than leaving him in the upper half of the Redraft Watch List tier is too low. I think there's a good chance that occurs, but I'm not ready to cement Collins in a Upside LB3 tier (or higher) just yet. There's too many multiple front options for Bill Belichick and the addition of James Anderson could mean fewer snaps for Collins.
If Collins does develop into a base defensive weak side linebacker, the favorable New England stat crew and the potential for Collins to add some strong peripheral pass rush stats to his line could give him LB2 upside. But I think it's too soon to recommend him as a clear top 40 linebacker yet.
What will the Miami DL rotation with Olivier Vernon, Cameron Wake and Dion Jordan look like this year? How soon will Wake be transitioned out of a primary role?
[ via IDP Forum @themojoworkin ]
Jordan added weight this offseason and is now 265 pounds. Kevin Coyle talks of him primarily as a pass rusher. Taken together, it looks like Miami's long term plan is to leave Jordan at defensive end and use him in rotation until he's ready for a larger role. Wake and Jordan are still capable of 800+ snaps, so there isn't much room in the base front for Jordan. Reports from OTAs note that Jordan has been moved inside in some packages. It's baffling to me why the Dolphins won't put Jordan in space as often as possible, but at least they're looking at ways to get him on the field.
Though his sack numbers didn't reflect it, Wake was as dominant as ever before his MCL sprain last year. It's hard to handicap when Wake will fade, but this will be his age-32 season. If Vernon can become more consistent on a down-to-down basis and Jordan fits what they want from him, Wake could see his snap count dip as soon as this season. More likely, Wake remains an anchor for the defense until at least 2015.
What do you make of the Bears defensively? Jon Bostic vs DJ Williams. Jared Allen added. Rookie Brock Vereen starting possibly over Chris Conte at safety. It seems like they are all over the place.
[ via IDP Forum @saintfool ]
I think the Bears have the potential to be a solid defense. The pass rush was upgraded with Lamarr Houston and Willie Young, and Allen still has something left in his tank as a rotational end and edge rusher. Unfortunately, they may be paying a price for last year's reliance on athletic ability and "speed scores" as a basis for drafting Jon Bostic and Khaseem Greene. Bostic still has some upside, but I've never been convinced that he has the instincts or power needed to play between the tackles. Greene was compared to Lavonte David last spring, but may never be more than a subpackage defender.
On the other hand, I think Vereen is a good fit and an underrated all-around safety prospect. I'm not surprised at all that he's already seeing snaps with the first team. Barring an injury or unexpectedly good play from the Chicago journeyman veteran safeties, Vereen will start on opening weekend. He could be an every-week DB2 -- or better if the Chicago linebackers struggle.
With whispers that Keenan Robinson is getting first team reps at OTAs, is he the type of linebacker that can play on 3rd down?
[ via IDP Forum @themojoworkin ]
Robinson was noted for his pass rush at Nebraska, but has all-around talent. Durability has been his primary issue, but he's been on the RTD watch list for two seasons now. I think it's a good sign that he's getting looks ahead of Darryl Sharpton this early in OTAs. If he can avoid another major injury, he'll have a chance at LB3 value this year.
How do you see Jurrell Casey faring this year with the switch to defensive end? Where would you rank him amongst the field? Top 25?
[ via IDP Forum @hammertoes ]
Casey doesn't have the same skill set that Calais Campbell does, but Ray Horton may put him in a similar role this year. If that's the case, Casey won't be asked to 2-gap and take up blockers. He'll be allowed to continue to use his power and quickness to penetrate and he's likely to play a vital role in both the base defense and subpackages. He's just outside my High Floor DL2 tier right now, so a top 25 finish is certainly within reach.
Will Justin Durant really play middle linebacker for the Cowboys?
[via IDP Forum @Young 8]
He's getting the first shot to prove himself as the starter. But I'm not ready to rule out DeVonte Holloman, Anthony Hitchens or even Kyle Wilbur or Orie Lemon yet. Durant was a surprise addition to the first team in OTAs after rumors that he could be cut earlier this offseason. Holloman had my attention last season as a reserve with upside, but he struggled through injury and inconsistent play and failed to take advantage of last year's big opportunity. It's not a good sign that the team is looking at Durant ahead of him right now.
Why was Demario Davis so disappointing last season? I think part of it is due to the strong line play, but if you believe PFF, some was also due to him underperforming.
[ via IDP Forum @themojoworkin ]
Can I plead the 5th on this one? Sigh.
The ability of Muhammad Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson to shed blocks and make tackles against the run and the growth of David Harris as a physical presence between the tackles may be affecting Davis' disappointing tackle numbers. But it's stretching the bounds of IDP reason to blame Davis' poor production on competition from two 3-4 defensive ends, David Harris, Antonio Allen and Dawan Landry. Rex Ryan asks Davis to blitz more often that most inside backers, but scheme isn't killing Davis' IDP value either.
When I've recommended Davis over the past two seasons -- and he's been on nearly every one of my rosters at some point -- it's been based on what I thought was a raw but projectable mix of violent downhill ability and athleticism in coverage and pass rush. Those things are all there -- as they continue to be with Mychal Kendricks -- but Davis hasn't been able to combine them with instincts, positioning and fundamental tackling or coverage depth.
It's not been so bad that Davis is at risk of losing his starting job and every-down role, but there needs to be clear improvement this preseason before I'll again recommend him as rosterable. The competition for solo tackles inside and outside the box won't be any easier with the addition of Calvin Pryor.
Cincy LBs: How is this all going to shake out on 3rd down if Vincent Rey beats out Rey Maualuga at MLB with two other very good coverage LBs in Burfict and Lamur?
[ via IDP Forum @themojoworkin ]
Lamur is the player to watch here. I favored Rey over Lamur in my most recent tiers, but the coaches still have Maualuga as the starting linebacker. Paul Guenther was Mike Zimmer's linebackers coach. If he disagreed with Zimmer's assessment that Maualuga was a better fit than Rey, I think we'd have seen it early in OTAs. Lamur was immediately inserted back in the strong side linebacker spot during OTAs and has little competition. He's a very athletic 240 pounds and will have a great chance to send Maualuga to the bench on nickel downs.
Do the Raiders have two Khalil Macks in the real Mack and Sio Moore? This would seem to be a very interesting set of chess pieces for the DC, if they plan to use them similarly.
[ via IDP Forum @themojoworkin ]
If Justin Tuck and Lamarr Woodley stay healthy and if Antonio Smith takes to the 3-technique role and if Mack and Moore develop into the all-around talents they should and if the secondary finally comes together healthy at the same time, the Oakland defense is going to be something to watch.
I'm very pleased that the Raiders are looking at Moore ahead of Kevin Burnett in OTAs at weak side linebacker. If he wins that job, he'll have an excellent chance to play every down regardless of what role Nick Roach has because I expect to see Mack and Woodley at end and Tuck and Smith inside in the nickel. And I think Mack can be everything Von Miller has been for Denver.
Root for the Oakland defense to be healthy and productive this year. It might make for some frustrating competition and more variance that IDP owners would hope to see, but it'll be fun to watch on All-22.
Why no ranking for Andre Branch? Seemed he heated up late last year and could be someone to target.
[ via Twitter @dirty__harry_ ]
Branch had six sacks in 2014 and five in his final seven games. From Week 5 to Week 16, he averaged nearly three solos a week. But, even though I liked what I saw from Branch on tape in college, I’m still not sold on his NFL upside. The Jaguars seem to agree. He was rumored to be available in trade before the draft and Jacksonville added Chris Clemons, re-signed Jason Babin and added Chris Smith in the draft. All three are capable of handling the same role Branch would play. If Branch looks like he’ll get another 500+ snaps this year, he might fit into the DL3 with Matchup Value tier, but I’m not comfortable recommending him there yet.
On tape it seems like Kyle Van Noy is always around the ball. With a three down role, will he be valuable this season?
[ via IDP Forum @themojoworkin ]
I'm very interested to see how the Lions use Van Noy. It's possible that the Lions move DeAndre Levy to the strong side (or LOLB should Teryl Austin not shift his linebackers according to offensive strength) and allow Van Noy to play in space on the weak side then move him into a pass rushing role on nickel downs. If that happens, his ceiling may be 60-65 solos and 6-8 sacks this year and higher in the future. That's an optimistic projection for his usage and production, but it isn't a pipe dream.
I think there will be too much variance in his stat lines to roster him in balanced leagues this year, but big play owners should move on him if his role looks favorable.
Was Manti Teo's 2013 due to performance or injury?
[ via IDP Forum @themojoworkin ]
I think the implication here is that Te'o was disappointing last year, but I'm not certain so I won't edit this question at all.
Three things held Te'o back last season. First, the injury hindered his development in camp and cost him multiple games at the start of the season. Second, he was never able to earn snaps in subpackages. That was probably by design as much as concern for his coverage ability, which isn't poor. Those two factors limited Te'o to around 600 snaps last year. Project his 42-20 and four passes defensed over a full season and he's working himself into High Floor LB3 range without any improvement.
The third and primary concern is whether Te'o will hold up against the run in the NFL. He has the size and instincts to handle the inside linebacker job, but he'll have to shed blocks and pursue more aggressively to make tackles as a strong inside linebacker. It won't be easy to overcome Donald Butler and Eric Weddle around the box. I expect some improvement this year and he'll have a shot to play every down, but his ceiling is probably 80-85 solos, with 70-80 a more likely result.
Are there any sleeper or newly assigned defensive tackles worth rostering?
[ via IDP Forum @Cato ]
I listed 18 defensive tackles I think are worth rostering in DT-required leagues in the DL Tiers article.. Antonio Smith fits the "newly assigned" category, as he moves from his 3-4 defensive end role in Houston to a rotational 3-technique and subpackage pass rusher role in Oakland. The Raiders added Justin Tuck, LaMarr Woodley and Khalil Mack to their pass rush this offseason. If the pieces come together as they hope, Smith could see lots of one-on-one opportunity on passing downs. He won't put up big tackle numbers, but a 6-8 sack season is within reach.
Depending on how deep your league may be, Jay Ratliff, Linval Joseph, Sylvester Williams, Sharrif Floyd and rookies Aaron Donald and Dominique Easley might fall into the sleeper category.
Is Brad Jones losing ground to Lattimore in Green Bay?
[ via IDP Forum @Young 8 ]
I think there's more competition here than there's been in the past two years when, if Jones was healthy, he was clearly atop the depth chart. I'm not certain this competition matters that much, though. The Packers are expecting to be at full strength in the secondary entering camp for the first time in years and have added Ha Ha Clinton-Dix. It won't be a surprise to see Dom Capers line up with six or seven defensive backs in subpackages. Since the Packers are likely to spend 60-70% of their snaps in those subs, the linebacker who plays next to AJ Hawk may not see that many snaps anyway. I'd bet on Jones here, but he should be considered high variance depth only.
Is Bruce Irvin, the new "Leo"in Seattle, and if so, shouldn't he be getting some love?
[ via IDP Forum @themojoworkin ]
If Irvin recovers well from offseason hip surgery, I think he's the most likely candidate to play Leo on nickel downs. But he won't play there full time and his role -- base SAM and nickel LEO -- won't be that much different than it was last year. At times, Irvin has looked like Von Miller. He's not there consistently yet. Big play owners need to follow his pass rush development closely, with those who play in balanced scoring systems waiting on a little more consistency in all phases.
Is this is a redshirt year for Dominique Easley due to the ACL tear?
[ via IDP Forum @themojoworkin ]
That depends on your definition of redshirt. I think Easley will start the season on the active roster and see playing time early in the year. He was impressive enough during his pro day workouts to convince teams that his explosiveness would be back and he'd be recovered in time to participate in training camp.
That doesn't mean he'll see the majority of snaps, however. I think he'll be eased into the rotation as a subpackage player initially. Should he prove healthy enough to be as explosive as he was before his latest ACL tear, he'll be very hard to keep off the field as a disruptive 3-technique on base downs, too. Conservatively, expect him to play between 300-500 snaps and improve as the season progresses. He may never be a 40 solo tackle player, but he will have yearly 8-10+ sack upside.
I am wondering what your thoughts on Jonathan Massaquoi are. He is listed as a DL in my league, Atlanta fans seem to value him highly, and it seems like he could get a lot of snaps in Atlanta's new defense. I noticed he isn't represented in the projections currently.
[ via IDP Forum @777 ]
Massaquoi isn't in my tiers. The Falcons are going to be a multiple front defense this year and will likely submit a base defensive depth chart that shows a 3-4 set. Massaquoi has been an outside linebacker in OTAs in those fronts and is already listed there in the Rotoworld depth charts. That's what MFL uses to set their positional classifications and therefore what I use to generate positions in my tier features.
For those who may be able to use Massaquoi at defensive end, this article is a great introduction to what the Falcons are trying to do with him this year. If he develops into an all-around player and plays well enough to be trusted with 600-800 snaps, he could finish among the top 25 defensive lineman. If Massaquoi looks good in training camp, he'll find his way into my Matchup Rush LB tier later this summer.
What do you think about Malik Jackson in Denver, both this season and going forward? A good dynasty pickup? Ceiling/Floor?
[ via IDP Forum @thaniz ]
I like Jackson. He's a quick, penetrating disruptive force who can succeed at end and tackle and he's likely to continue to improve. There are two fantasy concerns with him unfortunately. First, he played 600 snaps last year. I think that's probably his ceiling this year, as the Broncos will have Demarcus Ware and Quanterus Smith available to play end and should be ready to give Sylvester Williams more time at tackle.
The other concern is positional classification. Jackson played the bulk of his snaps at tackle last year, but Rotoworld (and therefore MFL) have him classified at end. If Jackson were classified as a defensive tackle, I'd have him near the top five at that position. At end, he'll need at least 600 snaps and have last season's 30-6 season to be considered his floor to be clearly within the Matchup DL3 tier.
Jackson is a great name for watchlists, however. All he needs is a slight increase in snaps, continued development and maybe a positional reclassification to become a valuable IDP.
Thoughts on Dakoda Watson? Is he ticketed for a Von Miller type role in Jacksonville? Should he be on our radar as a matchup play?
[ via IDP Forum @themojoworkin ]
Watson is going to play a position that Gus Bradley calls the "Otto" -- which is essentially a strong side linebacker that will be given some rush duty on early downs. It's a little different from what Von Miller does in Denver. The primary pass rushing job in Jacksonville will be handled by the "Leo" lining up on the opposite side of the formation, though Bradley has said that Watson may have some Leo responsibilities on nickel downs. Confused yet?
Watson played a similar role in Tampa Bay in some of the dime packages, where he was used as a hybrid pass rusher with drop responsibilities. In this role, he'll take on more blocks on base downs. He'll also be battling LaRoy Reynolds for base snaps. Until we know exactly what the rotation will be, it's hard to recommend Watson. The competition for tackles from Paul Posluszny, Jonathan Cyprien and (probably) Telvin Smith will also be limiting factors.
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