This week we discuss the following:
- Week 10 Breakouts
- Patriots Offense
- Saints Offense
- Foles-Cooper Connection
- Bears wide receivers
- Buccaneers running backs
- Colin Kaepernick
Week 10 Breakouts
A few guys had what could be considered breakout performances in week 10.
Andre Brown got his first playing time of the season, and jumped in with both feet, rushing for 115 yards and a touchdown. Is he a fantasy RB1 going forward?
Andy Hicks: Andre Brown had a great game against the Raiders. But it was against the Raiders. Granted, the Giants have a nice schedule in front of them as they begin their annual charge towards the playoffs, but Andre Brown is not the guy to base your fantasy team on. He is a fantasy RB2-flex kind of guy that you hope stays healthy. If he manages to defy expectations and remain injury-free, then he could end up being a fantasy RB1 for the next six weeks, but I'd bet heavily against it.
Matt Waldman: The schedule of defenses gives Brown a shot to produce as a nice fantasy starter. While Andy makes a nice point about the Raiders, let's remember that Brown isn't some one-trick pony who's never produced against a quality NFL defense during his career. The real issue that Andy points out is injury. If you can acquire Brown from the waiver wire or trade for Brown at RB3 value while obtaining the services of Peyton Hillis and/or Brandon Jacobs—I'd bet on Hillis—then why not take the chance on a player like Brown with 100-yard upside each week?
Kyle Wachtel: I'm all aboard the Brown train. Thirty carries in his first game back is a strong sign that they'll lean on him for the remainder of the season. Last season, when he saw extensive playing time in weeks two and three filling in for Ahmad Bradshaw, he totaled 220 yards and three touchdowns in those two games. Both Andy and Matt mentioned the Giants' friendly schedule. Combining that schedule with Brown's past success, I view him as a high-end RB2 and a top-15 RB for the rest of the season.
Andrew Garda: First rule of NFL coaches: they lie. Second rule of NFL coaches: THEY LIE. "Easing Brown into the lineup" looked a lot like giving Brown the ball a ton. Who can blame the Giants and Tom Coughlin, though? This offense is B-A-D. Peyton Hills was okay, but he wasn't really doing enough to keep Brown, a much more dynamic and solid back, on the bench. The Giants—and hold onto your hats because this feels odd to say—need to keep the ball out of Eli Manning's hands right now because he's way too generous with it. They'll run the ball, run it a lot and run it with Brown. I'm sitting right behind Kyle on the train for Brown and agree he's an RB2 the rest of the way. As has been pointed out, the schedule is a good one.
Tavon Austin has generally had a quiet rookie season, but his big-play ability was on full display in week 10. Are the Rams going to get him the ball more often, including some deep balls?
Andy Hicks: Two receptions and three targets are the key figures we need to remember. In only two games did he record less in the first nine weeks of the season. His previous longest reception was 25 yards on 31 catches and he was averaging 6.6 yards a catch. It has to be considered an anomaly against a Colts defense that had the day off. The Rams may try to get him the ball more often given the most recent success, but I'm sure they tried that strategy in the first nine weeks of the season.
Matt Waldman: I agree with Andy here. Austin had three great plays against a bad defense during a season where the Rams have struggled to get Austin in the situation to create big plays. I think this game is indicative of what Austin will do more consistently in the future, but first he has to show that he understands the offense better than he has thus far. Last week's production wasn't that kind of indication I'm seeking. Give me 4-6 catches per game and more reliable production on short and intermediate plays before I'm sold Austin has mastered the intricacies of the Rams' offense.
Kyle Wachtel: There's not much more I can add about Austin. His three big plays were flashy, but not something you can rely on or project with any consistency. He played only 15 of the Rams' 56 offensive snaps and has not received more than three targets in any of the past three weeks. Until his snaps and targets rise, this past Sunday will act as only an illusion.
Andrew Garda: I agree with Andy, Wildman and Kyle on this one—Austin's day was a bit of a mirage for this season, though potentially a window into the future. Putting this into more perspective: the Rams threw just 16 times on Sunday, making the big plays even more unlikely and odd. Like everything else this last week, it all seems like an aberration. They may throw more but I don't think we'll see repeating success with Austin at this point in his career. Not yet.
I will add that I don't much like Kellen Clemens, adequate though he has been two out of his three starts. I don't expect that to hold up either as I feel like he's slid by a few times when he shouldn't have. That too will hurt Austin's chances to replicate what he did against Indy.
Who is Rishard Matthews and what can he do for my fantasy team?
Andy Hicks: Rishard Matthews is a second year guy from Nevada who was selected in the seventh round by the Dolphins in 2012. He had a nice rookie season where he recorded 11 receptions for 151 yards. He lost out the number three role to Brandon Gibson this year and with the injury to Gibson is getting his chance to perform. It was a great game against the Bucs where he was constantly able to get open, while the run game was going nowhere and Wallace and Hartline were well covered. Matthews is not going to get 100 yards and two touchdowns every game and it will probably be the best game he ever plays, but he'll be the hot ticket this week on the wire and his new owners will be hoping lightning strikes again. Hartline and Wallace aren't going anywhere and the run game will be tried again. Expect WR3 numbers at best for the rest of the season.
Matt Waldman: Bloom loves this guy. We had a conversation about him a month ago as an example of a player he had been holding onto and waiting for something like this to happen. While I want to disagree with Andy about this being the best game Matthews will ever play in the NFL because it's one of my favorite things to do and the idea that Andy is ready to dismiss a player because he's a seventh round pick differs from my sensibilities about talent over a data point, I have to agree with Andy that Matthews' production last week was the product of something more than a talented receiver. Matthews was running wide open through this Buccaneers defense in a way that I was wondering all night if they were even accounting for the guy. It was a pitiful effort of coverage on the slot receiver and few of Matthews' targets were plays that I would consider particularly skillful or athletic. However, I know Bloom liked Matthews and knowing Bloom's penchant for receivers with athleticism, I'm willing to take a flier on the guy if he's still available for a low-cost bid and few expectations.
Kyle Wachtel: Opposing defenses have been keying on Wallace and Miami's offensive line does not allow Tannehill a whole lot of time to stand in the pocket. As a result, the inside receivers, whether it's Dustin Keller, Charles Clay, Brandon Gibson or now Matthews, will end up seeing a fair share of targets. I'm not sure you can rely on him week-to-week just yet, but he's going to see plenty of snaps and isn't a bad desperation WR3 in PPR leagues—I wouldn't expect much more than that.
Andrew Garda: In one game, Rishard Matthews had more targets than he'd had the prior three games. It's not like he's been building the targets up either. Prior to his 14 on Monday—in a desperate bid by the offense to do something—he'd been targeted once, six times and four times. At best, he's number three behind Mike Wallace and Brian Hartline in an offense which, as Kyle said, isn't remotely safe.
The offensive line was terrible before they lost two more players post-week nine and Ryan Tannehill isn't playing all that well because of the pressure. The only upside I can see is that Mike Wallace looks like he doesn't care anymore. He's not making more than half effort in any route, and is basically uninterested in the game when he's not the primary receiver. He drops balls he should catch when he is targeted. He is—not shockingly at all—a big fat wasted paycheck.
At some point are the Dolphins going to throw more to other players who give a damn? Maybe. Like Waldman I won't write him off as a one-time wonder but I am hesitant to start him as anything more than a flex right now until I see some consistency.
John Carlson got the start in place of Kyle Rudolph, who is expected to miss about a month, and Carlson was the top fantasy TE this weekend. What can we expect from him going forward?
Andy Hicks: John Carlson started his NFL career with the Seahawks where he ranked as a TE1 for the first two years of his career. Then Pete Carroll came to Seattle and he wasn't used, similarly to Zach Miller now. He was Kyle Rudolph's backup last year in Minnesota and excelled in his first start. I would definitely take a gamble on him as the bottom end of the TE1 pool is shallow and Carlson has demonstrated both last week and in his first two seasons that he can be a useful fantasy receiver.
Matt Waldman: Wow, two questions in a row where I agree with Andy! Yep, Carlson's decline in production after two strong seasons was puzzling. He's a quality player who, like Anthony Fasano in Miami, may not be a high-end athlete that teams want as its top tight end, but he's good enough to produce as a valuable cog in an offense—and a fantasy owner's roster as a low-end TE1.
Kyle Wachtel: Kyle Rudolph was completely unreliable as a fantasy option this season, notching greater than 42 receiving yards in only two of his eight games. While Carlson may be a serviceable fill-in, there are several other borderline TE1s that I prefer to him, including Charles Clay, Coby Fleener and Tim Wright. Not to mention, Carlson's last game was versus a struggling Washington defense and he reeled in all seven of his targets.
Andrew Garda: Over the last year and a half, I'd thought John Carlson the most ridiculous signing anyone had made in a long time. For a glorified blocker, he was well paid, that's for sure. And with Kyle Rudolph, why bother? Well, we're seeing why. I'm not sure I can say he's going to be awesome the rest of the way, but there are a few things in his favor. Christian Ponder loves to throw short to his tight ends. It's a safety blanket for him. If he thinks there is pressure (and honestly, he's often wrong about it) he's looking to dump the ball off and quite often it's the tight end who is the target. Especially since they refuse to try and use the Percy Harvin plays with Cordarrelle Patterson.
I agree with the sentiment that he's a decent low-end TE1 but we should be cautious with him because the Vikings offense has been terribly unpredictable.
Patriots Offense
This offense has struggled with injuries and overall sluggishness for much of the season, but everything came together for them in week nine before their bye.
Against the Steelers in week nine, Tom Brady was the number two fantasy quarterback, Steven Ridley was the number three running back, Rob Gronkowski was the number two tight end, and Aaron Dobson and Danny Amendola were the number five and number eight wide receivers. (LeGarrette Blount was a worthy fantasy starter as well, clocking in at RB19.)
For the first time all season, it looks like the Patriots will have Shane Vereen, Rob Gronkowski, and Danny Amendola all healthy at the same time, and rookie Aaron Dobson appears to be getting the hang of things as well. With Brady and Ridley rounding out the skill-position slots, is this offense primed to dominate the final six or seven weeks of the season?
Mark Wimer: I think it is a little premature to proclaim the Patriots' offense as back on track based on the game vs. Pittsburgh—the Steelers' defense is ranked 19th in the NFL averaging 24.2 points allowed per game, just a smidgeon ahead of the Eagles at 20th (24.4 points allowed per game) and slightly behind Detroit at 18th (24 points allowed per game on average to date). Put in this context, I think one can see why I'm a skeptic that New England has suddenly reclaimed top form. They beat up a defense they should have, yes, but so have a lot of other mediocre NFL teams. Oakland scored 21 on the Steelers and had 197 yards rushing and three rushing touchdowns the week prior, for example, with Pryor throwing for a miserable 82 net yards and two interceptions during that game.
Andy Hicks: Like Mark said, we won't really know if this offense is back on track until they deal with the Panthers. The offense will be much improved with Amendola, Vereen and Gronkowski all on the field, but I'd be very surprised if they remain on the field for very long. Amendola and Vereen in particular cannot stay healthy.
After the Panthers game, though, the defenses on the rest of their schedule should give the Patriots a much better chance to really revert back to previous form.
Andrew Garda: I echo everyone's sentiment that one successful day against a terrible Steelers D does not a return to greatness make. Carolina is going to be a very tough test. Then come Denver, Cleveland and Baltimore. All of them can be tough matchups.
It is "Patriot Timing" that they get Amendola/Gronkowski and Vereen in time for the last portion of the season and why my fellow Jets fans and I hate them so very much.
Brady hasn't looked like Brady this year. Not just because he couldn't get things going with a bunch of JAGs—or perhaps because for once he couldn't find a way to do it. That's really my big concern here—is Brady going to start looking like the Good Old Brady fantasy owners love? I think the answer is going to be no, though he will be better than he has been.
Kyle Wachtel: Like everyone else, I'm also a bit hesitant to anoint the New England offense as the juggernaut they once were. However, I do believe they will be much more consistent during this stretch run and there's plenty of fantasy value to be had. The Panthers tough defense will be a tough test, but I'm optimistic for the Patriots future.
How will Shane Vereen's return impact the offense? What affect will it have on Ridley's fantasy value? What is Vereen's value going forward?
Mark Wimer: Unfortunately, the "hot hand" approach in New England means that Vereen will simply make the situation more unpredictable from week to week, rather than the reverse. The more running backs in this stable, the more opportunities for coach Belichick to play games with the mix at running back. It works in the real NFL, obviously, but is a headache for fantasy owners.
Andy Hicks: Vereen will affect the stats of Stevan Ridley as he will see significant playing time, but week to week it is hard to gauge which Patriot back will be a major part of the game plan. They have four backs that all offer varying skills and depending on what defenses are putting in front of New England will depend on who gets the playing time. Don't be surprised if any one of Blount, Vereen, Ridley and Bolden each has a week where they shine during the last half of the season.
Adam Harstad: I don't think Vereen is going to impact Ridley all that much. Ridley's already embroiled in a platoon; I think Vereen's return just changes the talent level of the guys he's platooning with. Ridley's got a role in that offense, and I think New England more or less keeps him in that role. I think the biggest losers upon Vereen's return are going to be Bolden and Blount.
Andrew Garda: I agree that Vereen probably won't impact Ridley all that much as Vereen will see more receptions than carries—which means Brandon Bolden is likely to find himself on the bench. Vereen is going to be a nice Flex or RB3 with upside in PPR leagues going forward.
Kyle Wachtel: Vereen is simply dynamic. We saw what he was capable in week one (21 touches for 159 total yards) and then an injury quickly killed his opportunity for a career season. He should return and be very effective from the start, having a positive impact on the offenses ability to move the ball. Vereen should be considered as strong Flex in standard and with increased value in PPR. Ridley will be adversely affected as his snap count will likely take a hit and I'd recommend selling him now.
Where do you rank Amendola and Dobson from here on out?
Andy Hicks: While Amendola is available, he will be used in the Wes Welker role, which should mean plenty of receptions and touchdowns. He will be very valuable when healthy and I'd consider him a WR1 whenever he plays. Aaron Dobson is being used heavily by the Patriots as well and will make a good WR2/WR3 play depending on the matchup. He has had at least five targets in each of his last four games and has developed really well in his rookie year.
Andrew Garda: Amendola will be a decent start most weeks, although I wouldn't go so far as to say WR1 anytime soon. I'd say he's a decent WR2 with upside both in PPR and non-PPR leagues. I don't think he'll ever be what Welker was to this offense in part because I don't think he'll ever be healthy enough to be reliable.
I agree that Dobson is a solid WR3 who could be a low-end WR2. He has really emerged as a frequent and fairly reliable choice for Brady lately and that will probably keep up. He should absolutely be in your lineup in many formats.
Kyle Wachtel: Amendola is a WR2 in PPR leagues, but I would not blame anyone from trading him while he is healthy for a more reliable guy for the stretch run. Dobson has taken a hold of the X role that Brandon Lloyd held last season and can finally be started with some confidence as a WR3/4.
Kenbrell Thompkins can probably be cut in redraft leagues, but what about Julian Edelman? Any reason to hold onto him?
Andy Hicks: Edelman is kind of a break-glass-in-case-of-emergency receiver. With Gronkowski, Vereen, Amendola and Dobson likely to be targeted ahead of him, he will remain in the role we have seen in the last two games, a few targets every game, but useless for fantasy purposes. When Amendola gets injured again, Edelman will be used and be useful to fantasy owners again.
Andrew Garda: I'd drop Edelman unless you have bench space. You probably should have sometime before now as Edelman hasn't been relevant since Week four. As Andy said, he could function as an emergency guy if or when Amendola goes down, but you'd better have room on your roster and nobody more consistent or with more upside should be available on the waiver wire.
But as Bloom can tell you, I've never been sold on Edelman, so I could be biased.
Kyle Wachtel: I'm not holding onto either of these players. There are too many guys ahead of them in the pecking order and I'd rather load up on lottery-ticket running backs.
What will Tom Brady's fantasy ranking be for the stretch spanning weeks 11-17?
Mark Wimer: I'm not sold that Brady and company are going to be compelling fantasy plays during the stretch run into the fantasy playoffs. This week's test against Carolina's dominant defense will give us a much better handle on just exactly how rejuvenated the Patriots' offense actually is right now.
Andy Hicks: I think he will fall into the bottom end of the QB1s . He will have a few weeks where he'll be pushing the top six and a few weeks where he will not do well, so at this stage is more of a committee option rather than an every week starter.
Andrew Garda: We'll know a little more post-Carolina but at most he's going to be a low-end QB1. He's got some matchups that look good either because it's bound to be a shootout (Denver, Week 12) or a powder puff matchup (Houston, Week 13) but Denver could be tougher than you think and the Browns and Ravens both could be tough matches for him. So there may be occasions where you could find him on your bench in favor of a Nick Foles or Russell Wilson. Who'd a thunk it?
Kyle Wachtel: I've been waiting for Brady to return as a QB1 for a long time, but I do finally think that time has come. While he hasn't been sharp this season and his accuracy has been spotty, a healthy receiving corps will go a long way. With the depth at QB, don't be afraid to play the match ups, but you'll be able to start Brady regularly as your QB1 from here-on-out.
Saints Offense
When this offense gets hot, it rains fantasy points.
In week ten, Drew Brees was the number one fantasy QB, Pierre Thomas, Darren Sproles, and Mark Ingram were all top-five fantasy running backs, and Marques Colston came to life with his first 100-yard game of the season, and his first touchdown since week one. He checked in as the number eight fantasy tight end. Although he had a down week against the Cowboys, we all know what Jimmy Graham can do when he is healthy.
With so many options on offense, is there any way to tell who's going to shine from week to week? Aside from Brees and a healthy Graham, it seems like the rest of the skill-position players are each boom-or-bust candidates pretty much every week. What's the fantasy potential of the running backs (Thomas, Sproles, Ingram) and wide receivers (Colston, Moore, Stills) going forward?
Mark Wimer: Having watched Mark Ingram consistently fail to excel in this offense through the years, I'm skeptical that he's suddenly "got it" at this level. I view his one-week outburst as a Roy-Helu-like event—an outstanding effort by a guy buried behind superior talents ahead of him on the depth chart. Going forwards, I'm much more interested in Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles as fantasy prospects—Thomas in non-PPR leagues and Sproles more in the PPR format.
The receivers are all going to get theirs from time to time, but it's hard to predict which guy will "break out" on any given week. There is a lot of trust between Brees and Moore, so I think as long as Moore stays healthy he'll be in contention for touches each week, similar to Colston and Stills who are also boom-or-bust starts from week to week. Colston's age and the wear-and-tear on his knees is catching up to him, while Stills is still learning the ropes at this level. I'd plug any of the three into my WR3-4 slot depending on league and hope for the best, but I wouldn't want more than one Saint wide receiver on my starting roster in any given week.
Adam Harstad: I agree with Wimer. You start Brees and Graham knowing they're going to get you numbers, but you start everyone else in New Orleans just hoping for the best. We know every week that there will be points to go around in New Orleans, but we don't know how those points will eventually be distributed. I think there's a similar situation brewing out in Denver, where we know Peyton is going to throw for a ton of yards and touchdowns, but we don't know which of his four targets will wind up with them. All you can do is start whichever players from those offenses you own, resign yourself to the possibility of a bad game, and then cross your fingers. In the long run, the upside is worth it.
Matt Waldman: I agree with the final analysis that Wimer provides about Ingram, but disagree with how he got there. Ingram is not a superior talent for this offense, but it doesn't make him an inferior talent as a running back. Put Ingram in Houston, Denver, Tennessee, the Jets, or even the Rams of late, and he'd be the superior talent on the depth chart. He's an I-formation, zone runner who gets better when he gets into the rhythm of the game. He's been hurt and he's on Saints team that rarely runs the ball like it did this weekend.
In recent years the Saints defense has been so bad, the offense is still throwing to maintain a lead for fear of the defense giving it up. Ingram is constantly in and out of the lineup most games and he tends to make errors that are a result of pressing too hard to make a big play. This happened early in the Cowboys game where he had a few nice runs but he ended them trying to bounce the play at odd angles to turn a strong run into a huge play. Once Sean Lee was lost for the game, the Cowboys defense got worse, Rob Ryan had the number of the Cowboys' offense, and Ingram will be written off as a bad talent with a good game.
Folks will accept this notion at face value because Ingram's production has been bad and he hasn't "won" the starting job. However, a healthy Ingram on a different team with a system like the ones I mentioned would reveal the player he can be.
Andy Hicks: Obviously Brees and Graham are the stars of the show, but I think people are selling Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles short. Both are at the bottom end of RB1 or top end of RB2 area and have been reasonably consistent to date. The return of Mark Ingram shouldn't affect Sproles too much, but Pierre Thomas could easily see a drop in his carries. He has averaged 13 a week in the last five to go along with his six receptions a game over the same time period. His 20 touches a game probably drops to 15 with the presence of a healthy and productive Ingram. Like others I doubt that Ingram is suddenly going to be a fantasy star in this offense, but the fact that he'll be there and get 10 carries has a ripple effect on others.
As for the receivers, they have been in the shadow of Jimmy Graham this year. Even the reliable Marques Colston, who had three really quiet games, then missed a game before the great one against Dallas. Still, he is the most likely of the group to be a good fantasy option week-to-week and remain on track for another 1000 yard season.
Kenny Stills has been productive as a deep threat, but is hard to rely on in any given week. Like Mark and Adam mentioned, he is a hit-and-hope kind of guy as he only gets about four targets a game. Stills is in the Devery Henderson-Robert Meachem role in this offense and until he gets more targets and receptions we can expect a few zeros or slightly better. Lance Moore has missed a significant portion of the season with injury and he will get basic stats, with the potential for more if the Saints need to play catch up.
Kyle Wachtel: In PPR leagues especially, I would be able to start both Sproles and Thomas confidently each week as my RB2 or flex. Ingram, on the other hand, is not someone I can consider starting unless my RB corps was in ruins. He's still only the third option out of the backfield and has marginal use as a receiver.
There's a glimmer of hope that Colston carries his momentum forward and becomes the reliable WR2 that we're used to, but I think much of that depends on the health of Graham, which limits Colston to a WR3 for the time being. Moore and Stills are the ultimate boom-or-bust players that could both either be left out of the box score or notch a few receptions for 150 and two touchdowns. If you need a prayer, then take a shot with them.
Andrew Garda: Here's what's interesting to me about Darren Sproles: he hasn't been very productive this season. Look at the games he's had this year:
Week 1: 110 total yards
Week 2: 62
Week 3: 56
Week 4: 142 + two touchdowns
Week 5: 41
Week 6: 73
Week 8: 0 (hurt)
Week 9: 2
Week 10: 88 + two touchdowns
Here we are talking about Sproles as anything but a major disappointment most weeks. Sure, he's better in PPR leagues, but overall he hasn't been good. The offense has shifted away from him in a big way to the point where he's basically another Saints wide receiver—unpredictable but able to put up big numbers when you have him on your bench.
I do like him this week against San Francisco, but as a flex more than anything else. You just can't trust his production this year.
Pierre Thomas has been more productive, though not more consistent. Both of them make okay flex plays but aside from Graham and Brees, as has been mentioned, you can't trust anyone on this offense week to week with any confidence.
I echo what Wildman said about Ingram—he might look much better in another offense. I will also point out that a lot of Alabama players come out of college topped out and prone to injury, or at least it seems. We're seeing it to an extent with Trent Richardson in Indianapolis—oft hurt and just looking tired. It could be that Ingram was run into the ground more than we thought back in college. He can still bounce back but he may never be what some people thought he could be.
Foles-Cooper Connection
The Nick Foles-to-Riley Cooper connection looks like it's for real. Are these players you'd be looking to sell high right now after their recent hot streak, or do you think public perception hasn't yet fully caught up with their true value?
Mark Wimer: As Foles was just named the starter for the rest of the season by Chip Kelly, I have to say that I'd be holding Foles and Riley if I had them on my teams. Foles has put up multiple touchdowns passing almost every time he's started a game this year and has 16 touchdowns vs. zero interceptions and counting. Somebody besides just DeSean Jackson had to be the beneficiary of all that scoring and it looks like Cooper is that guy with five touchdowns from Foles in the last two games. Hold these guys and reap the rewards during fantasy playoffs, in my opinion. As Kelly put it earlier this week "16 touchdowns, no interceptions, Why would we change?"
Adam Harstad: As with everything, it's going to depend on the cost. I think that Foles is a legitimate low-end QB1 the rest of the way, and Cooper is a solid WR3. If I can find an owner who will pay me more than that kind of value for them, that makes them a strong sell. One nice thing about Foles and Cooper is they're kind of like finding a $10 bill between your couch cushions- it's just free money. I doubt many owners were counting on Foles or Cooper being starters for them the rest of the way, which means those owners have a lot more flexibility in how they deal with the pair. Whether you keep them and sell your current starters, or keep your current starters and sell Foles-Cooper, you should be able to use the windfall to make an improvement somewhere else in your roster as you prepare for the final push to a championship.
Matt Waldman: You can read about this with analysis in my latest Gut Check column. I'd ride the hot streak out, but I have some ambivalence about their dynasty value.
Andy Hicks: A lot of people won't believe until it's too late, but they could be this year's Billy Volek to Drew Bennett combo from 2004, which I wrote before I checked Matt's Gut check article for this week. As he says, whether it is a long-term proposition or just lightning in a bottle, you have to ride these things while you can. Instead of writing more, I recommend to any readers that they check the excellent Gut Check article on Foles and Cooper this week and try and get these guys now at a reasonable cost.
Andrew Garda: I think it's for real at least for this year and as has been pointed out, you might as well ride them while they're hot. Like Wildman, I'm not sold on them long term, especially Cooper. I really like Adam's take—Foles to me is very much a low-end QB1 and there will be weeks I like him even more than that. Cooper feels best to me as a WR3, though another multi-TD game and he might creep into a very low end WR2 space. And absolutely see about selling him for more than that, though holding him is just as smart.
Kyle Wachtel: I'm sold on Foles as a QB1 and with the friendly schedule, I'd be happy to lock him in as my starter for the rest of the season. His poor performance versus the Cowboys now looks to be the outlier. Chip Kelly has this offense humming and Foles is even adding a few points each week with his legs.
Cooper's crazy stretch has been elevated by a high-touchdown rate (five of last eight receptions have been touchdowns) and high YPR (23.1 over last five games). Both those numbers are likely to regress and I'd hold him for one more week for the matchup and then sell if your trading deadline permits that.
Bears wide receivers
Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall have received the same number of looks this season (targets plus rushes). Marshall has more touchdowns, but Jeffery has more yards. Which of these guys do you prefer in dynasty leagues?
Mark Wimer: Jeffery's star is ascending in dynasty circles, while Marshall (who will be 30 next March) is still playing at a high level but approaches the 30-years-old wall. If I were a dynasty owner I'd hold or attempt to trade for Jeffery while either holding or attempting to trade Marshall.
Adam Harstad: I'm not a "well, if you take out his big game..." kind of guy, but it has to be noted that so much of Alshon Jeffery's yardage all came from a single game. I always say there's no sense trading for a player who has had a big game, because that game will continue to hang around and inflate his total statistics for weeks to come. I like that Brandon Marshall has managed to build his season totals without the aid of a huge game or a hot streak. I also like Marshall's much longer track record of success. Most of all, I love the respect that defenses still pay to him. While the total looks for the two players might be comparable, there's no question who is still the better WR. Alshon Jeffery's arrow is pointing up, but I'd still much rather have Marshall, even if he is six years older.
Matt Waldman: I'm still giving Marshall the edge because he has proven he can get the job done without a quality receiver opposite him. I can't say the same for Jeffery despite having confidence he'll develop into that player and he has a good 8-10 years of production left in the tank if he stays healthy. I wouldn't blame you for taking Jeffery over Marshall in a dynasty league, but I can see Marshall producing at a high level for another three years and that's too long for me to ignore.
Andy Hicks: All the guys have made good points, but ultimately I agree with Matt. Marshall should still produce at his current level for another two years and that is good enough for dynasty leagues. Jeffery hasn't proven as much, but will be just as valuable, if not more so in some leagues, than Marshall. The key with dynasty leagues is not forgetting the here and now, while keeping one eye on the future. Too many people sacrifice one or the other. I would rate Marshall ahead of Jeffery for the exact same reasons as Matt, but Jeffery would probably fetch more in a trade deal.
Andrew Garda: If this were a start-up dynasty league I'd also take Marshall over Jeffery....for now. Because like Matt I see another two or three years of very productive football in Marshall's future and Jeffery, while very talented, isn't quite on the same level.
I would counter Adam's point about Jeffery's numbers coming all in one big game by mentioning that Jeffery actually has three other 100 yard games in addition to that 218 yard affair and for two of them he also added a few points running the ball (which is how he has more yards than Marshall, who actually has more straight-up receiving yards than Jeffery does).
It's not as if he's had one good game and then the rest are all 60 yards and a cloud of double coverage. He's a legit fantasy player. Does he need more work? Absolutely. But the leap from last year to this has been phenomenal and I believe he'll be a big factor in the NFL for a long time.
Buccaneers running backs
The Buccaneers' offense looks a lot different now than they did early in the season. Gone are Josh Freeman, Doug Martin, Mike Williams, and now Mike James. Is there anyone left in the Tampa Bay backfield who has decent fantasy potential? Brian Leonard? Bobby Rainey? Or is there nothing of value here?
Mark Wimer: In PPR leagues, Leonard has some value as he's becoming the main target out of the backfield in recent weeks, while Rainey has big-play ability and will get increasing opportunities in coming weeks thanks to James' injury. With Mike Glennon playing fairly well for a young starter, the Buccaneers' reserve backs will have enough touches on the football to make them flex-worthy starters going forwards, in my opinion. A tasty matchup with the Falcons' collapsing team is up this week which should yield decent numbers for fantasy owners in the short term.
Adam Harstad: I've been surprised by just how good every single RB has looked since Martin got injured. I think Tampa is a team that's going to get some fantasy points from the RB position going forward. I think the biggest risk is that Leonard and Rainey wind up splitting those points, effectively ruining any fantasy value either one might have had. Still, for the price of a waiver claim, I'd be glad to grab one of them and see what happens. We've certainly seen weirder things happen before. Ladell Betts started the second half of 2006 in place of an injured Clinton Portis and finished as the 10th best fantasy RB. Samkon Gado was a fantasy hero in Green Back way back in 2005. Even Ron Dayne managed to be a force in the fantasy postseason not once but TWICE in Houston, in 2006 and 2007. Based on name value, a lot of owners turned up their noses at these guys. The ones who took a chance on them were frequently rewarded with championship trophies. Will either Leonard or Rainey be the next Samkon Gado or Ron Dayne? I don't know, but I don't see any reason why they couldn't be. Despite Rainey having the bigger game, I'd prefer Leonard since it looks like he'll be first in line for touches.
Matt Waldman: I also covered this question in this week's Gut Check. I think both players behind this improving offensive line offer potential. Both players can catch, Leonard has power, and Rainey has skill in space. Leonard looked a lot like Peyton Hillis at Rutgers but with more agility. However, he didn't bulk up his body into a stiff Alstott clone like Hillis and shoulder issues reduced him to a player the Bengals labeled as a third-down, utility back. Both players offer RB3 potential, but I wouldn't be surprised if Rainey gets hot.
Andy Hicks: Tampa Bay isn't a bad team. They have had bad luck, bad management and bad coaching. It reminds me of the Chiefs unit from last year. They'll get a high pick next year, hopefully a new coach and the pieces are in place for this team to go far and get there quickly. Maybe Schiano can lift this team and keep his job, although it would seem to be in everyone's interest to get an experienced coach next year to maximize the squad's skills. The room is obviously there for any running back as the line works more cohesively and Mike Glennon has been a lot better than expected. Rainey and Leonard will each have their uses for decimated fantasy squads and while neither will get to the RB1 promised land, each offers RB2/Flex potential upside.
Andrew Garda: I'm with Waldman in that I think Rainey gets hot. Both have Flex/RB3 value and Leonard is a bit more stout than Rainey is. I definitely worry that Rainey could end up hurt because of his build. That said, he's a more dynamic back and has a higher upside, though his floor isn't much different than Leonard who will get plenty of carries regardless of how Rainey does because of size.
Kyle Wachtel: I ran through this situation in this week's Forensics Report. For the time being, Leonard's workload last week indicates him as a flex play going forward and he does receive a bonus in PPR leagues. Rainey is the more talented runner, but will only serve as a handcuff until he's able to either pass Leonard or the injury bug hits yet another Bucs' RB.
Colin Kaepernick
What's wrong with Colin Kaepernick?
Mark Wimer: A lack of credible receiving options, especially with Vernon Davis now in the NFL concussion protocols (and Michael Crabtree sidelined by injury this year, don't forget). The return of Mario Manningham may help if he can get into football shape quickly, but beyond Davis there isn't much talent at the receiving positions right now. Anquan Boldin flashed a big game to open the season but has been of marginal help since—the 49ers' receiving corps is not loaded with top shelf talent this year and it is showing in Kaepernick's results. Also, teams have had a year to adjust to the 49ers' offense as it functions with Kaepernick under center, and with the defensive adjustments Kaepernick isn't taking teams by surprise here in 2013. It's a combination of less surrounding talent and more defensive preparation that is weighing down Kaepernick, in my opinion.
Adam Harstad: He's still a one-read quarterback. That's phenomenal for Vernon Davis owners, and it will be phenomenal for Michael Crabtree owners once he's healthy again. It's bad for the 49ers, though. Hopefully, Kaepernick will continue to develop and improve, as young quarterbacks are wont to do. I wouldn't expect him to make huge strides in the middle of the season, and I don't think Crabtree will come back healthy enough this year to make a dramatic difference, so I think in redraft, what you see is what you get. In dynasty, though, I remain very optimistic about Kaepernick's long-term prospects.
Matt Waldman: I agree with Adam on this one. Take away Crabtree and Davis and Kaepernick isn't much better than Terrelle Pryor. The concern folks should have with Kaepernick long term is that the NFL has done a better job defending this read-option play. I can say that Washington is working to transition Robert Griffin into more of a pocket player. I'm not sure this is happening with Kaepernick. The potential is there, but I haven't seen enough quality play as a quarterback to be as optimistic as Adam. It can happen though. Randall Cunningham did it once he got to Minnesota. Donovan McNabb did it. So did Steve Young and Steve McNair. But I thought the last three of these four were already much better passers than I've seen from Kaepernick. The 49ers QB is most like Vince Young but with greater maturity.
I'd rather buy a player with proven pocket skills who can run like Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck, Griffin, and possibly E.J. Manuel. However if forced to choose between Kaepernick and a guy like Ryan Tannehill, Jake Locker, or Mike Glennon, I'd probably opt for Kaepernick.
Andy Hicks: Kaepernick can't make a five star dinner from table scraps and that is what he has had with Michael Crabtree injured, Vernon Davis struggling first with injury and now a concussion, Anquan Boldin a shadow of his former self, and every other receiver from last year gone. To think that the 49ers allowed a team with very few weaknesses to let an inexperienced quarterback struggle along with old or unproven receivers is a major error in retrospect. Maybe Crabtree, Manningham and Davis all come back at the right time to let Boldin move into a secondary role and if Kaepernick gets these guys back, opposing defenses will have to fear more than one option on passing downs. Kaepernick is at his best when the defense has to respect his arm. Randy Moss last year helped clear a path, purely on reputation. Crabtree and Davis kept the middle and short passing game away from Kaepernick's area allowing him more room to make decisions and run when the opportunity presented itself. Now teams just go for him knowing he hasn't got the receiving threats to make them pay.
Andrew Garda: A bunch of things are wrong with Kaepernick, but first I have to vehemently disagree with the idea he isn't a pocket passer. If that's true, what were we seeing from him frequently last year? The Niners frequently asked Kaepernick to stand in the pocket and deliver the ball, and that was evident in the playoffs last year.
While he's regressed badly and has not shown any confidence in the pocket for most of this year, I don't think it's because he's a one-read or read-option only guy (which is a play they aren't even running much this year, by the way). It's at least in part because he has one valid wide receiver in Anquan Boldin who can't get any separation on coverage. This isn't a shock because Boldin hasn't been able to do that in years, but losing Crabtree and a surfeit of other decent wide receivers with Crabtree out has made Kaepernick's job much tougher.
Last year saw not just Mike Crabtree able to get away from coverage, but Randy Moss and Mario Manningham at times as well. Throw in a healthy Vernon Davis, and the offense was much more complete than it is at present.
It's one thing to ask Brady or Rodgers to pull receivers off the street and make them stars—Kaepernick is too young and raw to ask that of. I think he'll bounce back but they have to concentrate on getting him more consistent depth around him because you shouldn't have a passing offense fall apart. I will absolutely agree in taking Wilson, RG3 or Luck ahead of Kaepernick but how many quarterbacks can you not say that about? Seven? Eight?
Kyle Wachtel: In dynasty leagues, I'm buying Kaepernick as quickly as I can. He still has all the physical traits to reach elite QB1 status, but is severely lacking weapons and needs some polishing, specifically going through progressions and beginning to anticipate throws rather than relying on his arm strength. In redraft leagues, his value will stay sunken unless Davis and Crabtree are able to stay healthy and play at a high level for him.
That will do it for this edition of the Footballguys Roundtable. Please join us again next week.