This week we discuss the following:
- Dennis Pitta
- Tom Brady
- Eagles wide receivers
- Fantasy ROY
- Colts Receivers
- Dynasty running backs
- Worrisome matchups
Dennis Pitta
Where do you rank Dennis Pitta among fantasy tight ends going forward this season?
Chad Parsons: Dennis Pitta is an automatic start as a top-six tight end the rest of the way. The Ravens have been lacking a possession target all season and Flacco looked his way often in Pitta's limited snaps last week, including in the red zone.
Jeff Pasquino: I am even higher on Pitta right now than Chad here. For those who wanted to play "give me one game to see," they saw all they needed last Sunday. Joe Flacco simply loves Pitta, and his presence makes that Baltimore offense far more viable. With two great matchups (at Detroit, vs. New England) in the next two weeks I have Pitta easily in my top five right now.
Stephen Holloway: I agree with Jeff and Chad that Pitta is an automatic start for the rest of the season. Dickson failed miserably with his opportunity and Dallas Clark has had only two productive games. I would definitely consider him top-five tight end for the remainder of 2013.
Jeff Haseley: I'd say he's definitely in the Top 10 and possibly 3-4 spots higher considering he had 11 targets in his debut game last week with a touchdown. Going forward, he should be a cornerstone of the Ravens offense that desperately missed him this season. The home game against New England for week 16 may be the game where he pays the biggest dividends. In my opinion, he's viable TE1 to start this week at Detroit and definitely next week against New England.
Greg Russell: With Gronkowski out, I would normally slot Pitta as the fifth best tight end going forward. However, there are some other factors at play for the end of the season that could move Pitta even higher. The Saints and Broncos have the possibility of locking in their playoff spots early, which could take Jimmy Graham and Julius Thomas out of the mix for leagues that play through Week 17, making Pitta an attractive option even for teams who already have an elite tight end.
Tom Brady
Tom Brady got off to a slow start this season, but over the last three weeks, he's been second only to Peyton Manning in fantasy points. Now that Rob Gronkowski is lost for the season, will Brady remain a fantasy stud, or will he revert to his early-season doldrums?
Chad Parsons: That's a tricky one. Gronkowski is a big missing piece as the statistic passed around lately is the huge PPG difference for New England offense without him. Shane Vereen's presence in the passing game helps a ton, as well as the continued health of Danny Amendola. The real key could be Aaron Dobson or Kenbrell Thompkins returning to the lineup in the next week or two. The yardage will be there for Brady, but the touchdowns I predict will be down from his peak stretch.
Jeff Pasquino: With no Gronkowski, Tom Brady is a marginal QB1 in general. The Red Zone efficiency plummets from over 70% to around 40-45% now. The Patriots no longer have that mismatch in their big tight end and they have to rely either on slot guys like Amendola or Edelman, big young targets for fades (Thompson, Dobson) or wheel routes or screens to Vereen. That's tough. Two road games to Miami and Baltimore are not the easiest schedule, either. At this time of year, however, you likely don't have a better option and at least Brady has performed well in the past, so I would be okay sticking with him as my starter but he's not a jump-up-and-down, get-excited-about-it option. For example, I might have Joe Flacco or even Ryan Tannehill ahead of him for fantasy production this week.
Stephen Holloway: Brady lost his favorite and most consistent producer in Gronkowski, but their next two games against Miami and Baltimore are against only the 13th and 14th best pass defenses and I anticipate that the Patriots will continue to pass early and often. Brady has averaged 32 completions for 378 yards and 2.3 touchdowns per game over the past three weeks and two of those games were against Houston (2nd) and Cleveland (8th) in the NFL for passing yards given up. He will continue to put up top ten quarterback numbers for the remainder of the fantasy season.
Jeff Haseley: I have a feeling the Patriots offense will revolve around three main players, Shane Vereen, Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola, with Stevan Ridley and LeGarrette Blount splitting the load running the ball. I don't think Brady will revert back to the doldrums of early 2013, but I also don't think we'll see many 300-yard games. In the two main fantasy games remaining, New England is at Miami, which won't be a jog in the park against Cameron Wake and the Dolphins, and then at Baltimore for week 16. Neither game looks like a good match up for Brady. In that sense, I don't see him keeping pace with the top three fantasy quarterbacks.
Greg Russell: While I do not expect the Patriots passing offense to regress completely without Gronkowski, I think his loss is going to take a significant bite out of their passing game. Danny Amendola and Julian Edelman may be decent receivers whose short area speed is used well by New England, but Gronkowski was the only player on the team who was still a threat even when the defense made it their primary goal to take him out of the game. As Jeff points out, the Patriots red zone game is going to be particularly impacted by Gronkowski's loss.
Eagles wide receivers
Who is the better player right now, DeSean Jackson or Riley Cooper? (Is the answer different depending on whether we're talking real life or fantasy?)
Chad Parsons: I like Riley Cooper more with his ability to make the tough catches in traffic. Both Eagles receivers can get downfield for the big play, but the Foles-Cooper connection has some juice to it. Even in the blizzard last week, Foles took shots to Cooper downfield.
Jeff Pasquino: I have always been partial to DeSean Jackson, but even I know that he was not going to be that guy who helped you in a PPR league or would even go across the middle for the tough catch—until Chip Kelly arrived. Now Jackson has bought in, and he can explode on any given play at any time. Cooper is a solid second receiver, but no more. Jackson is a playmaker who can take over a game. I would take Jackson in the NFL or fantasy over Cooper—in all formats.
Stephen Holloway: Definitely agree with Jeff on DeSean Jackson as he has always has the ability, but just never got sufficient targets for consistent production. His targets have decreased considerably since mid-season, but he still has scored double digits in PPR every week but one.
Jeff Haseley: From a fantasy perspective, I have to side with DeSean Jackson here. He is more of a deep threat and can separate himself better than Riley Cooper. Neither receiver is apt to catch more than six passes in a game, but the odds on Cooper doing that seem more remote. In fact, investigating this further, Cooper has not exceeded three receptions in any of the last four games. He also has three catches or fewer in 10 of the 13 games this season. I'd much rather have Jackson.
Greg Russell: Count me in with those favoring DeSean Jackson. While Cooper is playing well and showing a tough streak in his play, I believe his contribution can be replaced by many competent receivers across the league. Jackson's speed and play-making potential are not easy to replace. I believed Chip Kelly was a star coach in the making when the Eagles hired him, and the team buying into his philosophy and system is going to pay off well for Philadelphia.
Fantasy ROY
Who's your pick for fantasy rookie of the year?
Chad Parsons: My vote goes to Giovani Bernard for his consistency in PPR scoring, with Keenan Allen currently the runner-up. In non-PPR, Eddie Lacy gets into the mix as well.
Jeff Pasquino: Rookies have not exploded this year, even with all the scoring up. For me this is a three-way race between a wide receiver and two running backs. Giovani Bernard is competing with Eddie Lacy for recognition, and I would lean towards Lacy over Bernard due to production and that Lacy is the feature back while Bernard is still yielding touches and touchdowns to BenJarvus Green-Ellis. The other player who could win—and I think he should—is Keenan Allen. Allen is the clear top receiver for San Diego, and he is on a pace to exceed 1,000 yards receiving with half a dozen touchdowns. Lacy might get more fantasy votes here because of the lack of RB value this season, but I like Allen as the best fantasy rookie for 2013.
Stephen Holloway: Keenan Allen is my choice for fantasy rookie of the year. He started out slowly with only four targets, three catches, and 30 yards over the Chargers' first three weeks. But since then, he has 58 catches for 872 yards and five touchdowns. He should easily eclipse 1,000 receiving yards as he faces the Broncos and Raiders over the next two weeks.
Jeff Haseley: I predicted Keenan Allen and Vincent Brown would be one and two in receptions for the Chargers this year. If Allen can outlast Danny Woodhead, who has 65 receptions compared to Allen's 61, I'll be half right. Allen is projected to finish with 70+ receptions and over 1,000 yards with at least six touchdowns. A rookie wide receiver with 60 catches deserves recognition, but adding another ten, plus yards and touchdowns to boot...that looks like a lock to me, especially when no rookie RB other than Eddie Lacy has made a big impact. Lacy is Allen's only threat, but ultimately Allen's body of work should win out.
Greg Russell: I am disappointed in my fellow Footballguys. Quick, which rookie is second in his position's primary NFL statistic, and is middle of the top ten in most fantasy scoring systems this year? Buffalo middle linebacker Kiko Alonso. Don't tell me you are all still playing in those tired leagues that use Team Defense? More seriously though, Alonso has been a fantastic pick for IDP leagues. I also want to mention Zac Stacy, who has been a top ten running back since he took over as a starter. As one of the best players this season who was available from waivers, Stacy probably saved quite a few fantasy seasons. While Stacy might not be my top pick, he deserves to at least be included in the conversation.
Colts Receivers
Once Reggie Wayne was lost for the season, T.Y. Hilton, Darrius Heyward-Bey, and Coby Fleener had a shot to become major parts of the passing offense, but they've been inconsistent. This past Sunday, DaRick Rogers and LaVon Brazill were the most effective receivers.
Is Rogers worth serious consideration as a starter in the fantasy playoffs, or was week 14 too likely to be an aberration?
Chad Parsons: Rogers is an ideal upside shot for underdogs in the fantasy playoffs over ho-hum veteran options in the WR3/4 range of the rankings. His physical make-up is that of a starting outside receiver in the NFL despite being kicked around NFL rosters up until landing on Indianapolis' active roster a few weeks ago.
Stephen Holloway: There is an obvious opening for DaRick Rogers to step in and secure playing time. He has the size and athleticism, but questionable character. His huge week last week against the Bengals might be a little misleading as he ran through two fairly weak tackle attempts on his 69-yard score and added only 38 more yards on five additional catches. Andrew Luck also had the second most passing attempts and yardage and the most TD passes of the season as the Colts rallied from far behind. I would not be comfortable starting Rogers against the Texans and Chiefs the next two weeks.
Jeff Pasquino: I would pass on starting Rogers, as I want proven commodities for fantasy playoffs. Rogers would only be in a best ball lineup or a last gasp situation where I would need a huge game to compete and win. The matchup (Houston) will likely be a favorable one, but Andrew Luck spreads the ball around too much to count on any receiver in particular for WR3 or better production, including Hilton.
Greg Russell: I agree that I would like to see another game of DaRick Rogers before starting him this week, though I may have to resort to using him as a flex fifth wide receiver this week myself. If Rogers continues to see enough targets to be viable after this week, I would feel more confident about him for fantasy leagues that continue through the last two weeks of the season.
What's the long-term outlook for this group of wide receivers and TEs, including Reggie Wayne and Dwayne Allen?
Chad Parsons: Hilton and Fleener definitely had their shots to deliver strong production with Dwayne Allen and Reggie Wayne out of the lineup. Largely they have disappointed. Hilton profiles as an effective third receiver in my book, but playing over his head as the de factor number one earlier this season. A healthy Reggie Wayne and a developed DaRick Rogers heading into 2014 would keep Hilton where he is best suited. Dwayne Allen should be a trendy name this offseason. He outplayed Coby Fleener when they were both rookies in 2012, is the better blocker to stick on the field on all downs, and Fleener has done little to separation himself with the role to himself this entire season.
Stephen Holloway: The Colts receivers going forward is a very interesting and likely fluid situation. Andrew Luck will be the centerpiece of the offense, so it would seem logical for them to seek outstanding receivers to match his strengths. Reggie Wayne has been a fixture in the offense, with eight of the last nine seasons having over 1,000 yards receiving, but he is 35 years old and coming off season ending surgery for a torn ACL. He will be in the last year of his contract in 2014 as well. Heyward-Bey was only signed for 2013 and his disappointing production should find him out of Indianapolis after this year.
Even though T.Y. Hilton is more suited to the slot, I like his long-term prospects the best of the current Colt receivers. Wayne could have issues recovering and even if successful, could be gone after next year. Rogers could make a nice turn-around and be a solid option outside, but I wouldn't count on him yet. I expect both tight ends to continue to split those targets, but all of these options should force defenders to minimize their focus on the slot receiver. Depending on Rogers' success the rest of 2013 and Wayne's recovery, the Colts could look to add another wide receiver in the 2014 draft, but Hilton will likely remain with his inexpensive contract for two more seasons.
Jeff Pasquino: I think Mr. Holloway captured the long-term situation very well. Reggie Wayne will be on a farewell tour soon enough, and it is a given that Luck loves two viable tight ends. A feature tailback who can catch (Trent Richardson, they hope) will be the single back set with 12 personnel in most situations, which means they want a Wayne-type and a solid WR2 on the other side. Rogers and Hilton could be those two, and maybe a free agent, LaVon Brazill or a draft pick with suitable size can push Hilton to the slot when they go three-wide in 2014 and beyond.
Jeff Haseley: I agree with the consensus here that Reggie Wayne will come back for probably one last year. That's what we should expect. Anything different would be a big surprise. You have to assume that he is motivated to come back strong and play with a purpose. Otherwise he would just retire and ride off into the sunset. But that's not how Reggie Wayne functions. I think we'll see him play the WR1 role next year with DaRick Rogers or T.Y. Hilton on the opposite side. Dwayne Allen's return should be significant. I also see the Colts using a two-tight end set on base downs using both Allen and Coby Fleener. This would minimize the slot role, which could potentially limit Hilton's presence in the offense. I'm not sure the Colts want to do that, so there could be some variations of how they will line up. I am also in the camp that believes Trent Richardson will eventually evolve into a much more involved player. Next year, he will have a full training camp to get more acclimated to the offense, which will increase his comfort level and above all, confidence.
Greg Russell: Since Fleener's rookie season I have felt like he is too highly regarded in fantasy circles. Allen is better as both a blocker and a receiver. The red zone is the one place where I see Fleener as a legitimate upgrade over Allen. However, as long as the Colts continue to desire a power running game as the mainstay of their offense, Fleener will see significant snaps for the flexibility that a two tight end set gives them. But I would not want to put much faith in him for fantasy purposes.
Dynasty running backs
Who are your top five dynasty running backs right now?
Chad Parsons: LeSean McCoy is the perfect blend of age, proven track record, and system to fuel his production. He's my number one.
Giovani Bernard, LeVeon Bell, and Eddie Lacy all have a good share of the backfield touches for their teams and are under 24 years old when the 2014 season kicks off, so I'll put them at two, three, and four.
The final spot is between Doug Martin and Jamaal Charles on my board. Martin gets the nod as Charles is right on the edge of his prime production window where trade value and difference-making production fades a bit. The question mark with Martin is bouncing back from a sophomore slump where his backups excelled later in the season. This will end up as Charles' career year and I am typically conservative on players (especially running backs) coming off seasons like that.
Stephen Holloway: My top five are:
1. LeSean McCoy
2. Doug Martin
3. Jamaal Charles
4. Adrian Peterson
5. Eddie Lacy
Running back is such a difficult position for athletes to stand out among their peers in today's NFL. There are so few true three-down backs, both because of their inability to stay healthy and the general trend among owners and head coaches to develop committees to share the load. McCoy has the perfect blend of talent, age, and heavy usage in a system that fits his skills. Martin is another young back that can handle a heavy load and is a good receiver. Charles is a little older, turning 27 later this month, but his top notch speed and shiftiness enables him to avoid a lot of hits. Peterson will probably not make a lot of these lists, but he is the best running back of his time and his unbelievable work ethic convinces me that he still has two or three elite seasons left. Eddie Lacy has played very well as a rookie and has an excellent opportunity to fill a need in Green Bay. I expect that he will be more effective in his second year and be used more in the receiving role.
Jeff Pasquino: I'll go with:
1. LeSean McCoy
2. Jamaal Charles
3. Adrian Peterson
4. Eddie Lacy
5. Doug Martin
LeSean McCoy has to be the top back right now. Jamaal Charles is also in the Top five. Those two backs, along with Adrian Peterson, should be the Top three names off any redraft board next year, and the only knocks on Peterson is injury and age. I tend to devalue that age argument, especially for running backs under 30, because athletes take better care of themselves now and also because the position has such turnover from year after year that you must account for consistency. I would love to have two of these three guys for the next 2-3 seasons, and I think teams with a combo like that have a dynasty run on their hands.
The next group is tougher to call, and that is the younger guys who look to have feature back futures—Eddie Lacy, Giovani Bernard and Doug Martin healthy this category. I would lean to Lacy and Martin right now as Bernard still is in a timeshare, which makes me pause that he either won't be able to be a 20-touch guy every week or Cincinnati thinks that a committee is the right approach going forward. Bernard just misses the cut for me, as do veterans Matt Forte and Marshawn Lynch.
Jeff Haseley: I am more of an "I want results now" kind of dynasty owner. I still believe Jamaal Charles is the top dynasty back. Andy Reid and his style of offense isn't going anywhere and Charles still has a clean bill of health. As long as the two are together, Charles should continue to put up big numbers both as a rusher and receiving back. The same can be said for Matt Forte and Marc Trestman. Getting a ton of receptions and being able to get decent rushing yards on a weekly basis is the new blueprint for success among fantasy running backs. The total yards metric and ability to score is what's most important in my book.
My Top 10 Dynasty running backs are:
1. Jamaal Charles, KC
2. LeSean McCoy, PHI
3. Eddie Lacy, GB
4. Matt Forte, CHI
5. Doug Martin, TB
6. Giovani Bernard, CIN
7. Shane Vereen, NE
8. LeVeon Bell, PIT
9. Adrian Peterson, MIN
10. Zac Stacy, STL
Worrisome matchups
Which presumed fantasy starter would you feel most uncomfortable with in your lineup in week 15?
Chad Parsons: Andre Brown against Seattle. I have been playing Brown consistently in the daily formats and as a regular RB2 in my redraft leagues since returning to the Giants lineup. This week has the smell of a disappointment for owners that auto-start Brown against the stingy Seattle defense.
Stephen Holloway: Zac Stacy for the St. Louis Rams against the New Orleans Saints. Drew Brees and the Saints got their wake-up call in Seattle and they are on a mission. The Rams give up the third most yardage per pass at 8.4 yards and you can expect the Saints to come out and attack their defense. If they are as successful as I expect, the Rams will be forced into playing catch-up and lose interest in the running game. The strength of the Saints defense is not stopping the run, but their offensive production frequently masks this deficiency and it should happen again this week.
Jeff Pasquino: I am going to go in a different direction, as Top 24 running backs almost have to start for you this time of the year. There are a number of wide receivers who have some tough matchups this week. Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall face Cleveland, and Joe Haden can only cover one at a time, so I would be okay with either in my lineup. I would be worried about Vincent Jackson against San Francisco, as the 49ers can shut down top receivers and make Mike Glennon look pretty bad when the San Francisco defense is geared up. The 49ers have to keep winning and this is a must-win game, so I don't trust Jackson to put up strong numbers this week.
Jeff Haseley: I mentioned this in my Cliff Notes article this week, but I am leery of Jamaal Charles at Oakland. I don't know if it's the dirt infield or if the black hole fires the Raiders run defense up, but opposing running backs haven 't fared too well in Oakland this year. This sounds like a good match up on paper, but after further investigation, Oakland is pretty stingy at home against running backs. No running back at Oakland has rushed for more than 73 yards (Chris Johnson) and only two rushing touchdowns have been scored on the Raiders at home all year. No RB has had more than three rushing first downs at Oakland. In fact, 14.40 non-PPR Fantasy Points is the most any opposing RB has reached at Oakland this season. Running backs who finished with less than 14.40 FP at Oakland include LeSean McCoy (14.0), Chris Johnson (8.1), Alfred Morris (7.1), LeVeon Bell (10.9), Maurice Jones-Drew (2.8), Ryan Mathews (0.8) and Danny Woodhead (13.3). This is definitely not the best match up for Charles. That's not to say he won't produce, but if you believe in trends, this one is not in his favor.
Greg Russell: I am worried about Ben Tate playing against the Colts. So many things about the situation make Tate seem a good idea at first glance. Indianapolis has surrendered over 100 rushing yards in six straight games, and Houston will no doubt wish to establish the run to make things easier on quarterback Case Keenum. Yet there are other factors that give me pause. Tate has only had one above average performance since taking over as a starting running back with four broken ribs. That game was only exceptional in that Tate got into the end zone for three of the four touchdowns he has on the season. The Texans offense is not moving the ball with any consistency with Keenum under center. How will the team respond after the firing of coach Gary Kubiak? For all the faults that Kubiak has as a coach, I believe he is a better play caller than offensive coordinator Rick Dennison. If Houston falls behind early which is very possible, Tate has been a modest part of the passing game at best. Despite the Colts being weak against the run, I can see this turning into a six fantasy point performance for Tate.
That will do it for this edition of the Footballguys Roundtable. Please join us again next week.
