In 2010, it was Arian Foster who rushed for 1'616 yards and 16 touchdowns. In 2011, it was Rob Gronkowski who caught 90 passes for 1,327 yards and 17 touchdowns. In 2012, it was Stevan Ridley who rushed for 1,263 yards and 12 touchdowns. In 2013, it was Michael Floyd who caught 65 passes for 1,041 yards and five touchdowns. In 2014, it will be....
Seemingly every year there is at least one second-year player who takes a significant step forward in his development and that development is reflected on the stat sheet. Considering the adjustment that must come with moving from college to the professional ranks, it's no surprise that the impact of drafted prospects may be delayed for a season or two.
It's not always easy to see who is going to be more productive in their second season. Some players are simply too talented to be restrained by their limited experience, while others see the situation around them dramatically improve. Even though this is one of the most inexact of all inexact sciences, this is the time of the year when we need to take stock of the notable names from a season ago and how we view those players moving forward.
With that in mind, here are 10 thoughts on players from the 2013 NFL draft class.
Tavon Austin Tactics
Rivers McCown, of Football Outsiders, writes a series that looks at NFL receivers called Factors. That series breaks down what a receiver did during the previous season by going through all of his targets analytically. McCown recently looked at a receiver who has peaked my interest this offseason, Tavon Austin of the St. Louis Rams.
Austin's rookie season saw him underwhelm as he caught 40 passes for 418 yards and four touchdowns. He also added nine carries for 151 yards and a rushing touchdown, but six drops and four fumbles made him an unreliable receiver whose explosion didn't mask his flaws.
Most onlookers blamed offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer for Austin's failings. It's easy to suggest that Schottenheimer didn't get the ball in his rookie receiver's hands often enough or he didn't put him in position to succeed on a regular basis. Those weren't the conclusions that McCown came away with when he finished his analysis of the Austin-Schottenheimer relationship and neither were they the conclusions I came away with when I went through Austin's rookie season.
Because he was the eighth overall pick in the 2013 draft and because he was somewhat of a controversial selection for the Rams who traded into the top 10 to take him, Austin was always going to be overly scrutinized as a rookie. The 22-year-old was billed as the next Darren Sproles, Wes Welker combination despite the fact that it took both of those players a few seasons to establish themselves as difference makers on the offensive side.
While his speed would make him an immediate big-play threat every single time he touched the football, Austin was still raw in terms of playing the receiver position at the NFL level.
McCown touched on Austin's inability to take advantage of space and his problems catching the football, but those can both simply be a result of a lack of comfort as he continues to adapt to the pace of the professional game. The real concern with Austin is his size. He stands at just 5'6" and 176 pounds. Size for a receiver isn't as important as many will tell you, but like anything it is something that needs to be worked around.
Austin was regularly knocked off balance when he ran his routes over the middle of the field. This is something that can be countered in two ways. The first is the direct correction, Austin could add some upper body weight to withstand hits from bigger defenders. The second is an indirect solution that would help him avoid contact, Austin could alter his route running to either angle his routes before the defender can touch him or be more deceptive within his breaks with better footwork.
These are normal issues for a young receiver to have regardless of his size. If Austin can develop in the same vane that Michael Floyd of the Arizona Cardinals did before last season, then he should become a very valuable fantasy receiver. Any concerns over Brian Schottenheimer's ability to get him the football should be pushed into the shadows.
Carrying EJ Manuel to Fantasy Relvancy
When the Rams traded up to draft Tavon Austin last year, the Buffalo Bills were the team that allowed them to break into the top 10. The Bills dropped down to 16th overall and selected EJ Manuel to be their quarterback of the future. Manuel really struggled during his rookie season and it could be argued that Thaddeus Lewis deserved to be the team's starter based on his play during the regular season.
Even though there is little to suggest that Manuel will be a quality starter for the Bills moving forward, he does look set to have some fantasy value.
There are a few reasons to be optimistic about Manuel's potential production this season. The first is his health. When Manuel was drafted he was expected to become a dual threat quarterback similar to Colin Kaepernick in San Francisco with the 49ers. During his rookie season he played 706 snaps and ran the ball 53 times. While roughly half of those runs weren't by design, it still means he used his feet once every 13 snaps or on 7.5 percent of all plays. He turned those 53 rushing attempts into 186 yards and two touchdowns in 10 starts.
If Manuel is fully healthy, then the Bills should be more likely to call running plays for him or feature more option plays where he can decide to keep the ball.
It's clear that Manuel has the athleticism to become a greater rushing threat. He probably won't ever attempt over 100 rushes in consecutive seasons like Cam Newton, but he could see more designed rushes and during a full regular season come close to 100 carries. During Manuel's rookie season, C.J. Spiller wasn't 100 percent healthy. Spiller will be a key part of any potential read-option or designed quarterback run that features misdirection the Bills look to run with Manuel.
When Spiller is fully healthy, he is a threat to score from anywhere on the field. He has the kind of vision and speed that can consistently exploit the cutback lanes that come from a backside defender who must account for a mobile quarterback. When Spiller is on the field, that backside defender is more likely to crash down on the running back to give the quarterback a simple read and a clear path to the second level of the defense.
Furthermore, the addition of Sammy Watkins in the draft gives the Bills even more diversity in their rushing attack. With Watkins, the Bills have a player who can motion into the backfield to run the ball, run routes from the backfield or act as a pitch option with the quarterback after an initial fake.
Watkins figures to be an important player for the Bills offense both next season and over the coming years. He is audaciously talented and figures to be just as impactful on an offense as Percy Harvin was for the Minnesota Vikings when he and Adrian Peterson were the focal points. What made Watkins a special prospect was his all around ability. He should be able to beat defensive backs in many different ways in many different situations.
However, the trait that will define him early on in his career is his ability to gain yards after the catch.
YAC is an under-appreciated aspect of the passing offenses in today's NFL. It played a huge role in the Denver Broncos' success on offense last year, as over half of Demaryius Thomas' 1,430 yards came after the catch. Most of the Broncos' YAC yardage wasn't created by the individual receivers, but rather by how those receivers stretched the defense to create space for an incredibly intelligent quarterback. While the Bills weapons don't figure to be as intimidating as the Broncos', Watkins' individual ability to create yards after the catch should stil be evident.
The real beauty of any kind of yards after the catch is that it is yardage for the offense that the quarterback doesn't have to create. Every professional passer in the NFL is able to throw screen passes consistently and accurately. Every professional passer is also able to throw passes into the flat consistently and accurately. When you can allow your quarterback to throw more shorter, simpler passes instead of fitting the ball into tight windows down the field without limiting his production, then you have created the perfect scenario to take the pressure off of your quarterback.
While it's easy to understand how Watkins would ease the pressure on the quarterback position because he was the headline addition of the offseason, the 21-year-old isn't the only new receiver in town who should dramatically help Manuel.
Watkins aids his quarterback primarily by allowing easy throws to still result in big plays, whereas Mike Williams is the type of receiver who gives his quarterback a greater margin for error with his accuracy when throwing the ball downfield. Williams was acquired in a cheap trade from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers because of character concerns. He missed most of last season through injury also, but if healthy and on the field in 2014, he should become a critical figure in the team's receiving corps.
In 52 career starts, Williams has 25 touchdown receptions, 215 receptions and 2,947 yards. Those raw stats are impressive, but made even more impressive when you consider the situations he played in.
For the first two years of his career, Williams was essentially the Buccaneers only legitimate receiving option. He was immediately thrust into the number one receiver role while the relatively inexperienced Josh Freeman throwing him passes. When Vincent Jackson arrived, Williams benefited from being the second option on offense. He was able to consistently dominate the opposition's cornerbacks at the catch point, meaning that both he and Jackson were able to mask the accuracy issues that were plaguing Freeman. Accuracy issues that eventually contributed to him losing his starting job in his fourth season.
Williams isn't a superstar receiver who dominates every facet of the game, but he has very impressive athleticism that allows him to get down the field in a hurry and leap over defenders to catch the ball. Even though he won't create yards after the catch or run a massively varied route tree, he can still prove to be very valuable in this singular role.
Adding Watkins and Williams gave the Bills two types of receivers that they didn't have last season. As good as Steve Johnson is at escaping coverages of all kind, he never excelled at the catch point or offered anything notable after the catch. To succed with Johnson, Manuel needed to throw the ball accurately and on time down the field.
Cordarrelle Patterson and the Minnesota Vikings QB Situation
The Minnesota Vikings receiver is clearly the darling of the 2013 NFL draft class for most fantasy owners entering the 2014 season. Patterson took his time before establishing himself in the Vikings offense as a rookie. He eventually finished the season with 45 receptions for 469 yards and four touchdowns, with 12 carries for 158 yards and three touchdowns.
Patterson came out of college as a very raw receiver who had huge upside because of his athleticism and open-field vision. While it would have irritated fans and fantasy owners alike, the Vikings were smart to be patient with Patterson early on to ease him into the offense.
Comparisons to Percy Harvin are inevitable because of the position he plays and the franchise he plays for, but Harvin was a more well-rounded football player than Patterson when he entered the league. Harvin is also what the Vikings want Patterson to become, not what he can realistically be expected to be during the 2014 season. While that doesn't mean he won't have a great season, right now it appears that expectations are becoming much higher than they should be.
The interesting dynamic with Patterson this season is with the quarterback position.
While Teddy Bridgewater is clearly more talented than Matt Cassel, Cassel is probably a better fit with Patterson. With Cassel as the starting quarterback, the Vikings will be more likely to use simple plays that focus on getting the football in Patterson's hands. Similar to what they did with him as a rookie. If Bridgewater is the Week 1 starter, then he is more likely to act as a more traditional pocket passer who throws the ball down the field. Bridgewater figures to excel on intermediate routes, which should make Greg Jennings and Kyle Rudolph his more preferred targets.
Zac Stacy, LeVeon Bell Facing Competition
Neither Zac Stacy or LeVeon Bell are exceptionally exciting talents at the running back position. Neither started 16 games as a rookie and neither had an overly impressive average per carry. Both the Pittsburgh Steelers, who Bell plays for, and the St. Louis Rams, who Stacy plays for, invested in significant players at the running back position during the offseason. In fact, the Rams gave up a third round pick for rookie Tre Mason after only spending a fifth rounder on Stacy the previous season. In PIttsburgh, the Steelers brought in journeyman LeGarrette Blount, but Blount is still young and coming off a very impressive season.
With this impending competition for both players and the seeming lack of explosive physical traits both players showcased as rookies, it would be easy to outline both players as fantasy busts this season.
It's true that Stacy and Bell are more likely to bust than fellow second-year running backs Eddie Lacy and Gio Bernard(even though the Bengals brought in Jeremy Hill in the second round of the draft also), but it's also true that there are reasons to be very optimistic about Stacy and Bell next year. Neither player was healthy entering their rookie season, yet both players eventually established themselves as consistent bell-cows who were able to mask the inefficiencies of their respective offensive lines.
As Chris Johnson and Brandon Jacobs have proven in recent times, the running back position isn't really about being the fastest or the strongest player on the field. Obviously it helps to be built like Adrian Peterson, but Peterson isn't only great because he's really fast and really strong.
Both Bell and Stacy excel in two crucial areas for consistent production from the running back position. Both have outstanding vision and a clear understanding of their blocking in relation to how the defense is set up. When you are able to anticipate holes opening in front of you and you are able to manipulate defenders who are already engaged with blockers or lurking on the second level, you are able to mask mistakes in your blocking upfront.
Tre Mason, the rookie coming in to compete with Stacy, is coming from a college system that didn't really ask him to be patient behind the line of scrimmage. Mason figures to at least push Stacy for goal line carries and potentially take more of Stacy's carries away from him as the regular season develops, but it may be a year before he can really compete for the starting job.
LeGarrette Blount, the veteran free agent coming in to compete with Bell, understands how to manipulate the defense and adjust to his blocking schemes on the fly, but he isn't anywhere near as well-rounded as Bell. Unlike Bell, Blount is essentially a non-factor as a receiver out of the backfield and he's not as reliable in pass protection. Blount brings more power to his runs than Bell, but not significantly more.
Tyler Eifert Time?
When the Cincinnati Bengals initially drafted Tyler Eifert last year, the selection was met with curiosity and intrigue more than expectation. That wasn't because Eifert wasn't worthy of a first round pick, but rather that the Bengals didn't appear to have any need for another pass catcher in their offense.
That is essentially how Eifert's rookie year played out. He was effective, but limited by his offense. Eifert finished the year with 39 receptions for 445 yards and two touchdowns.
At 6'6" and 250 pounds, Eifert entered the league as a mismatch player. As he continues to develop technically and physically, he should evolve into a dominant receiving option second only to A.J. Green on the Bengals' roster.
Eifert is being somewhat overlooked this season because of Zach Ertz and Jordan Reed, while even Eric Ebron and Lardarius Green will be viewed as preferable options by some. Even though his situation may not be as good as others at this stage, Eifert's individual talent is greater than that of any other young tight end in the NFL.
While we can't be certain because he has never had these kinds of weapons at his disposal before, we can hope that Hue Jackson will alter the approach in Cincinnati to focus more of the offense on Eifert.
DeAndre Hopkins' Despair
Things appear to be bleak for DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins is a stellar talent who enjoyed a relatively impressive rookie season that was limited by playing with arguably the worst group of players to man the quarterback position of anyone in the NFL last year. The only hope for Hopkins in 2014 at this stage appears to be an Andre Johnson trade that would force the offense to completely focus on Hopkins.
Of course, if the offense is completely focused on Hopkins then so will the defense.
Ryan Fitzpatrick is not a good quarterback, but he has put up some relatively impressive numbers during his career. He won't provide Hopkins with consistent service, but he should do enough to improve upon what Schaub and company gave Hopkins during his rookie season. Hopkins is a bully of a receiver who has big hands and the aggressive approach that is required to consistently win contested catches. In Gary Kubiak's offense, he didn't get opportunities to make plays in the end zone on a regular basis so he finished the 2013 season with just two touchdowns.
More touchdowns is the one area that Hopkins should definitely improve upon in 2014, but overall the outlook will remain bleak until the quarterback situation resolves itself. When the quarterback situation does resolve itself, Hopkins should quickly become an in-demand player. It's worth taking note of his talent while the Texans endure the upcoming season for future fantasy drafts.
The Running Back in the Shadows
The 2013 running back class was exceptional. Even though none were worthy of a first round pick at the time, it'd be hard to imagine Eddie lacy, LeVeon Bell and Giovani Bernard falling to the second round again if we redid the 2013 draft. What makes this class potentially special is the depth. Surpassed Lacy, Bell and Bernard, there is also Montee Ball, who impressed as a rookie and is set to start for the Denver Broncos this year, Christine Michael, a very gifted runner who is waiting to take over for Marshawn Lynch in Seattle, Knile Davis in Kansas City, Andre Ellington in Arizona, Marcus Lattimore in San Francisco, Mike James in Tampa Bay and Zac Stacy in St. Louis. Each of those players has the potential to be a long-term starter for their respective franchises.
In total, there were 27 running backs drafted by teams last year.
One of the 'other' backs who didn't make a major impact as a rookie was Joseph Randle, a fifth round pick of the Dallas Cowboys. Randle played college football at Oklahoma State where he carried the ball 564 times for 3,085 yards and 40 touchdowns. He also had 108 receptions for 917 yards. As a 21-year-old coming out of college, Randle wasn't highly thought of. He didn't have any spectacular physical trait to project as an immediate short yardage back or third down back. With that in mind, it was no surprise that Randle carried the ball just 54 times for 164 yards and two touchdowns while adding just eight receptions for 61 yards.
Randle averaged just 3.0 yards per carry, an underwhelming number but a number that doesn't really reflect how well Randle played.
The sample size is simply too small to use that 3.0 average per carry against Randle. Randle had six negative carries in 2013, if you turn those negative runs into runs for no gain, then Randle averaged roughly 3.4 yards per carry. That is too big of a swing for so few carries, therfore the sample size and all of the numbers that Randle produced last year don't carry any value moving forward. However, we can still evaluate what he did on tape when he was on the field.
The first thing that must be noted about Randle is that he is a very well-rounded back.
The Cowboys used Randle in a variety of ways. He saw carries at the goal line and played as a receiving option in shotgun formations on third downs. When he ran routes out of the backfield, he looked very comfortable and proved to be a natural catcher of the football. What does this mean? It means that Randle was able to adjust to poorly thrown passes, catch the ball without altering his direction in his route, catch the ball with his hands away from his body and adjust to find space when his initial route was well covered. On this screen play we got to see Randle's comfort in space also.
If we freeze the play as the ball arrives to Randle, we can see that he catches the ball away from his body with his hands. While he doesn't have to fully extend his arms, the purpose of catching the ball this way is that it allows him to keep his feet moving towards the sideline and turn his head around to read the defense before the ball has arrived. If he caught the ball into his chest, he would need to be facing his quarterback and it would elongate the process of turning to run down the field.
Randle is a good technician, but even though he doesn't have one overwhelming physical trait, he has enough ability to consistently break tackles in space. When he turns upfield here, he subtly angles back inside as the first defender arrives, before accelerating to shed the tackle of the second defender. DeAngelo Hall, the cornerback on the second level, throws himself at Randle's feet to knock him to the ground, but Randle finishes the play falling forward for a good gain. He was able to get to this point because of how he caught the ball and because he is a well-rounded athlete even if an unspectacular one.
When watching Randle, one name kept coming to mind. Maybe it's simply that this back was also overlooked and under-used during his rookie season, but I like to think that the connection is born out of a similar skill set. Randle reminds me of Arian Foster.
Foster is cleary the more established player, but it can be tough to remember that Foster didn't actually establish himself as a starter until his second season. The undrafted prospect made the Texans roster during his rookie season, but he needed to bulk up physically to become an effective back. Like Randle, Foster doesn't play with great power or speed, instead he relies on well-rounded athleticism with exceptional vision and quickness. Foster is the perfect cutback runner who is able to slip through tight running lanes but also run over smaller defensive backs in space. Furthermore, he also is a very valuable receiving option.
Replicating Foster's athleticism isn't that tough to do. Replicating his vision is what sets him apart from his peers.
Randle's vision was inconsistent during his rookie season, but most of his negative runs(fewer than two yards outside of goal line situations) were a result of poor offensive line play rather than his own poor vision/decision-making.
Too often the Cowboys offensive line gave Randle nowhere to go. He regularly had to run into a pile of bodies at the line of scrimmage just to gain avoid being trapped behind the line of scrimmage for a loss. According to Pro Football Focus, Randle averaged 2.2 yards after contact last season. That is an incredible number considering he only averaged 3.0 yards per carry overall. When he did get opportunities to cut through the defense, he generally took them and made some impressive plays.
The addition of Zack Martin to the Cowboys offensive line and the expected development of center Travis Frederick should allow the Cowboys offensive line to be a lot more effective next year. Because of that offensive line, much more is expected of DeMarco Murray entering this season. Murray is an excellent talent who enjoyed a good season last year, but he also has proven to have durability issues in the past that could open the door for Randle.
Randle isn't a big name and you likely won't need to spend a draft pick on him in even the deepest of leagues, but he is definitely a player to keep your eye on moving forward. Lance Dunbar isn't a bad backup, but Randle should expect to take his place on the depth chart before the end of training camp this year.
Resetting Denard Robinson
Former Michigan quarterback Denard Robinson was drafted to be a running back in the NFL by the Jacksonville Jaguars. Plenty of excitement surrounded the selection of Robinson because of his electrifying plays he made in college with the ball in his hands.
The question mark for Robinson entering the NFL focused on his ability to be effective within the structure of an offense as the running back. There was no question that he could make plays from the quarterback position when the play broke down and there was space to take advantage of, but reading the defense and understanding blocking schemes were completely different issues.
During his rookie season, Robinson couldn't get on the field. He had just 20 carries for 66 yards and three fumbles for the whole season. It appeared that Robinson failed to make his transition to a new position and function within the structure of the Jaguars offense. However, after the season we found out that wasn't the case.
After the season it was revealed that a lingering issue with a nerve in his hand made it difficult for Robinson to hold onto the football. This injury didn't make him inactive on gamedays, but it did all but sideline him in terms of on-field touches.
Although the sample was tiny, Robinson actually looked impressive with his few carries last year.
With players who are unfamiliar with the workings of the position, you expect some level of discomfort that reveals itself through rushed decisions and panicked feet. While Robinson's average didn't reflect it, he didn't rush his decisions with the ball and he didn't panic when he was reading the defense.
Robinson won't be the primary ball carrier for the Jaguars, that role clearly belongs to Toby Gerhart. However, he should be able to carve out a bigger role if he beats out the quietly impressive Jordan Todman. Todman has more experience and some talent, but he doesn't have the same explosiveness as Robinson with the ball in his hands.
A Quarterback Competition, A Weapons Arsenal and Mike Glennon
I've previously written about Mike Glennon's impressive play during his rookie season. The Buccaneers didn't seem to share my view entering the offseason, as they named Josh McCown the starting quarterback after signing him in free agency. Once McCown and Glennon got onto the practice field, there appeared to be a slight change of heart.
Right now there is less certainty about who will start for the Buccaneers, but McCown is definitely still the favorite.
McCown will be able to be productive for the Buccaneers, but not enough to be relevant in fantasy terms. Glennon on the other hand has enough talent to really show off the flurry of weapons that surrounds the quarterback position on that offense.
With Mike Evans, Tim Wright, Vincent Jackson, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Brandon Myers and Doug Martin on the field, the Buccaneers have the ability to excel throwing the ball deep with Glennon as well as high quality complementary pieces underneath.
Khiry Robinson Competing
Pierre Thomas is a 29-year-old running back who was never a great athlete and is coming off of a season when he ran for 3.7 yards per carry. Thomas is showing all the signs of a player who is beginning to wear down even though he only has roughly 1,000 career touches. Thomas should remain a part of the Saints offense, but he may fall further into a third-down role.
Instead of relying on Thomas to carry the ball, he will primarily help the team account for the yards and receptions lost by Darren Sproles departure. He and Brandin Cooks should be able to mimic what Sproles excelled at for the past few years in Sean Payton's system.
With Thomas focusing more on passing downs, there should be more carries to split between Mark Ingram and Khiry Robinson.
Ingram improved last season as he looked quicker on his feet and more decisive as a runner. However, Robinson is the back who showed the most potential. Robinson doesn't appear to be a spectacular receiver, but he does show good burst between the tackles, an aggressive approach to contact and the awareness to get the most out of his blocking.
He may be diminutive in stature, but Robinson appears to be a resilient runner who can carry the load rather than a receiving specialist like the departed Sproles.
