Welcome to "Money Talks". The general purpose of this column will be to give you some advice for one of the more popular methods of adding new fantasy players each week – the Free Agency Acquisition Budget, or "FAAB". What this is in a nutshell is a budget of money that every team is given to bid on free agents each week, much like in an auction. Usually this is done via blind bids, meaning that no other owner knows how much you have bid on a given player – unless you announce your bid in some sort of a poker-like bluff move. Some leagues do reveal all bids after the bidding is closed and waivers are processed, while other leagues just show winning bids. It can be fun to see if several teams bid on a given player or if an owner spent a ton of money on a guy no one else even wanted.
Enough of that for now. I will give both general advice and also some weekly assistance for this advanced waiver process in this column. I hope you enjoy and get the player(s) you want every week. Here we go.
ASSUMPTIONS
As with anything in fantasy football, not all leagues are the same. Some are big, some are small. Such is the way with FAAB waivers. Some leagues use a big budget of $1,000 per owner or more, while others use $100 or less. I will assume $1,000 for the purposes of this article and let you, the reader, do the math to adjust to your league. Another difference is that in some leagues the FAAB process is the ONLY way to get new players. Other leagues have the FAAB process first and then allow free transactions for that week on any player not getting a bid (so you can cover your kicker's bye, for example, for free). I will assume that is NOT the case here and think that every transaction will cost you something. If it does not, great – but at least you know why I might say to grab a kicker now for a buck.
Now let's talk about bidding in general. For many more experienced leagues, round numbers are the kiss of death. Even older leagues (and owners) start to see bidding trends over time ("Jeff loves to end in a 7"), which can be dangerous when you are trying to outbid everyone. The natural assumption is to bid in large round numbers – please avoid that temptation. $53 vs. $50 may seem like a trivial difference, but many more people bid $50 instead of adding a few extra bucks that can change who wins.
Another generally accepted rule – do not be stingy early in the year. Sure it is nice to hold on to extra "cash" in case a stud RB goes down for the year, but look around your league and count how many NFL backups are even available on the waiver wire. Not many? Right. Go big early on players who seem to come out of nowhere. Most fantasy studs appear on the scene in September instead of weeks later.
There is a "ying" to the "yang" of the last rule – which is to not excessively churn your roster. While it may not seem like much, but if you drop 5-10% of your bankroll each week on bench players that never see the light of day in your lineup, then you are just wasting money. Think about it this way – if you save for a rainy day, you can be prepared to go all out for when you need that money to go "all in" on a player you really want. Of course the trick is figuring out which player is worthy of such a big bid.
Last comment for now – it is far better to bid on a player a week or two early instead of a week late. That can be the difference between a $3 player and a $300 player. If you really want Adrian Peterson’s understudy, get him now before Peterson pulls that hammy and everyone gets in on the action.
Week 3 Comment: Another item to discuss – who to drop. Keep perspective on your team. If you are short on running backs, you probably want to cut a different position player to grab running back depth. To say that another way, if you are strong and deep already at wide receiver, a sixth or seventh wideout is very unlikely to help. Let that steer your cuts.
Week 4 Comment: Bye weeks are starting now, so teams are going to be more active on the waiver wire, especially with six teams off in Week 4. Kickers and defenses will be added and dropped, so start looking ahead and you’re your lineups for the weeks where you will be short a starter or two. Depth is going to play a bigger part in the next several weeks, so do not be afraid to add players for a rainy day now instead of later.
Week 5 Comment: Bye weeks are here, so some of the best deals are both players on a bye week or coming off of one. For example, Denver and Seattle were both off last week. With the idea of "out of sight, out of mind", players on both teams could be bargain acquisitions – and this general trend will continue through Week 12.
Week 6 Comment: The fantasy regular season is nearly half over, so if you are sitting on some free agent money, it is probably time to buy some guys you might need – now or later. Even if a player is only startable for 2-3 games, that is a big percentage of the fantasy regular season. Shoot the lock off of that wallet.
Week 7 Comment: Not only is the (fantasy) season half over, injuries are starting to pile up. Once you can start to get past some bye weeks, depth on rosters will matter. Add players and handcuffs accordingly.
Week 8 Comment: Time for some fantasy self-reflection. If your team is 5-2 or better, you are likely a playoff team and you can start stacking your bench for the playoffs. If you are 3-4 or worse, you have to gamble and get wins, so bid big for any help you can get now.
Week 9 Comment: Time to make some moves. With major stars on the bye week, it is either time to build some depth or to position your team for a playoff push. Throw the budget away and get some guys you want (and might need) for November and the fantasy playoffs.
Week 10 Comment: Time is running short to make some moves. With major stars on the bye week, it is either time to build some depth or to position your team for a playoff push. Throw the budget away and get some guys you want (and might need) for November and the fantasy playoffs.
Week 11 Comment: Bye weeks are almost behind us, with just six more teams to take a week off. Now it is time to roster some guys to back up your top backs and receivers and get the roster set for your fantasy playoffs.
Week 12 Comment: You are likely running out of time (and possibly dollars as well). Grab any applicable handcuffs and if you have enough money left, spend it now on a Top 5 waiver wire prospect. Even if you have a strong team, keep hot hands off of the opposing rosters.
Week 13 Comment: You are likely running out of time (and possibly dollars as well). Grab any applicable handcuffs and if you have enough money left, spend it now on a Top 5 waiver wire prospect. Even if you have a strong team, keep hot hands off of the opposing rosters.
Now, on to some specific players to target here in NFL Week 13 of the 2014 season:
BIG BUCKS
Big Bucks are reserved for immediate starter potential players (QB1, RB1/2, WR1/2/3, Flex, TE1) in most league formats.
- Isaiah Crowell, RB, Browns ($427): Ben Tate was cut and Crowell became the feature back in Cleveland this past week. Things move quick in the NFL. Two touchdowns later, Crowell is now a RB2 with RB1 upside and is a must add.
- Latavius Murray, RB, Raiders ($357): Murray exploded last Thursday with 112 yards and two scores against Kansas City before being forced from the game with a concussion. Grab him if you can afford him.
- Tre Mason, RB, Rams ($277): If Mason is still available, grab him. A starting tailback of this caliber must be on a roster this time of year.
- LeGarrette Blount, RB, Patriots ($215): Blount went from having no value after being cut by the Steelers to scoring two touchdowns for New England in the space of a week. Bill Belichick sure likes his guys, and you should too.
- Delanie Walker, TE, Titans ($214, $307 in PPR-bonus leagues): Delanie Walker had a huge day against the Eagles (5-155), and he is the top target for Zach Mettenberger since he took over under center. If Walker is available he is likely the best option for a TE1 for the rest of the year to add.
MEDIUM MONEY
Medium Money is reserved for players who could be bye week starters or that have upside potential on good matchups in most league formats.
- Jarvis Landry, WR, Dolphins ($175): I keep mentioning Landry, week after week. After another strong showing (7-50-2) with two touchdowns, he is a must add if you have room for a wide receiver – or an underperforming one. Landry is a WR3 in all formats with upside.
- Kyle Rudolph, TE, Vikings ($145, $185 in PPR-bonus leagues): Minnesota may play much better down the stretch with more receiving options and Teddy Bridgewater starting to get comfortable. If Rudolph is available he may be one of the last guys with TE1 upside out there.
- Kenny Stills, WR, Saints ($138): Brandin Cooks will be out for several weeks and Stills elevated his play on Monday Night Football, posting a solid 8-98 night and leading the Saints in catches against Baltimore. He remains more risky and matchup dependent, but is a solid WR3 option with Brees.
- Carlos Hyde, RB, 49ers ($135): San Francisco scored again late on the ground, and it was Hyde finding the end zone, not Frank Gore. Both are used by the 49ers but Hyde has big upside if Gore slows down or gets hurt. If you own Gore you must get Hyde if you can.
- Daniel Herron, RB, Colts ($131): Trent Richardson did not look the part of a starting tailback for Indianapolis (surprise), and Dan “Boom” Herron saw a lot of work in the backfield against Jacksonville. Snap him up and expect him to see more action in Indianapolis.
- Cecil Shorts, WR, Jaguars ($127): Terrible performance last week, but look at it as more of an aberration than a sign of things to come. Shorts is a WR3 and deserves another chance on your roster (even if you are scared to start him). If he is available grab and stash him.
- Theo Riddick, RB, Lions ($126): Reggie Bush was out for Detroit last week once again, and Riddick had five touches and 52 yards in a bad Detroit offensive game. If Bush remains down, Riddick will greatly benefit and could be a RB2 immediately.
- John Brown, WR, Cardinals ($126): With Larry Fitzgerald out with a knee sprain, Brown stepped up (3-61) and had a highlight reel catch on the sidelines against a tough Seattle secondary. He is a solid addition if he starts and even if he does not he has big play capability.
- Ryan Tannehill, QB, Dolphins ($126): Tannehill has put up QB1 scores in four of the past eight weeks, and his solid showing in Denver last week adds to his resume as a QB1. Add him if you need depth or a starter.
- Terrance West, RB, Browns ($125): West ascended to the RB2 role behind Isaiah Crowell in Cleveland after Ben Tate was released. West is a solid add as the next man up if Crowell gets hurt or slows down.
- James Jones, WR, Raiders ($124): While Andre Holmes continues to be the boom/bust option in Oakland, James Jones is the more consistent target for PPR and modest yardage production every week. Jones will not be a big producer most of the time, but his production floor is higher than Holmes, making Jones a solid WR3/4/flex type player.
- Charles Johnson, WR, Vikings ($122): The second-year player from Grand Valley State accumulated six catches and 87 yards two weeks ago and found the end zone in Week 12 for Minnesota. Not a bad pickup as a WR3/flex option but is matchup dependent. Good news is that the Vikings get Carolina and the Jets the next two games.
- Timothy Wright, TE, Patriots ($121, $157 in PPR-bonus leagues): After the top tight ends right now, it feels like a total gamble to find a viable option. With Wright scoring two touchdowns and being the clear handcuff to Rob Gronkowski he has TE1 upside every week and is worth rostering.
- Juwan Thompson, RB, Broncos ($108): Thompson saw limited work behind C.J. Anderson, but he is one injury away from a huge upside role for Denver.
- Zach Mettenberger, QB, Titans ($101): Mettenberger has been asked to throw more for Tennessee, and he has posted two passing touchdowns in three out of the last four starts. He is a solid backup at this point.
CHUMP CHANGE
Chump Change is reserved for players who are relatively considered to be a good flier pick to stash on a fantasy bench in case he blows up over the next few weeks and becomes a potential immediate or spot starter.
- Andre Holmes, WR, Raiders ($97): Oakland had a respectable passing game against Kansas City, and Holmes was the main target – but still only had a 5-55 day. Holmes is a decent bench wideout but not startable yet.
- Greg Jennings, WR, Vikings ($90): Teddy Bridgewater was respectable on Sunday, and Greg Jennings as the possession receiver for Minnesota benefited as a result. Jennings had a decent performance (4-38-1) and the Vikings get Carolina and the Jets in the next two games, making him a sleeper WR3/flex option.
- Marqise Lee, WR, Jaguars ($88): Jacksonville was terrible against Indianapolis, but Lee showed good flashes of speed and ability to catch the ball on limited chances. Lee could push for more snaps as the Jaguars try and evaluate players for 2015.
- Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Vikings ($77): Bridgewater is still learning his way in the NFL, but the signs of improvement are there. He is a modest QB2 with some upside, especially with good matchups against Carolina and the Jets in the next two contests
- Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, Falcons ($77): Rodgers is an interesting add, as he is the backup now for Steven Jackson and he is getting third down work (and PPR love) with Antone Smith done for the year. Roster him in big leagues or if you own Jackson.
- Justin Hunter, WR, Titans ($55): Hunter had good numbers against the Eagles in Week 12 (4-64-1) but the lucky deflection / catch touchdown really accounted for most of it. Hunter has the talent but not much opportunity yet – and he is not doing enough in practice to warrant more targets.
- Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Texans ($55): Fitzpatrick is the new starter (again) in Houston after Ryan Mallett (pectoral tear) was lost for the rest of the year. Fitzpatrick is okay if not solid as a QB2.
- Toby Gerhart, RB, Jaguars ($45): Strange to see, but Gerhart was a bigger part of the action against the Colts, especially as a receiver (3-19 receiving) in a very bad performance by the offense in Week 12. Very risky add, but he does seem to be getting more touches.
- Eddie Royal, WR, Chargers ($44): Royal accumulated decent numbers in Week 12 (6-50) but the game was a shootout most of the contest. Royal could be a bench guy in deep leagues, but do not go crazy.
- Louis Murphy, WR, Buccaneers ($11): Murphy had over 100 yards receiving against the Bears, but Tampa Bay was in full-on catch up mode in the second half and Murphy was finding openings against a prevent defense. Move along.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.