Money Talks (Free Agent Bidding Advice): Week 4

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Welcome to "Money Talks". The general purpose of this column will be to give you some advice for one of the more popular methods of adding new fantasy players each week – the Free Agency Acquisition Budget, or "FAAB". What this is in a nutshell is a budget of money that every team is given to bid on free agents each week, much like in an auction. Usually this is done via blind bids, meaning that no other owner knows how much you have bid on a given player – unless you announce your bid in some sort of a poker-like bluff move. Some leagues do reveal all bids after the bidding is closed and waivers are processed, while other leagues just show winning bids. It can be fun to see if several teams bid on a given player or if an owner spent a ton of money on a guy no one else even wanted.

Enough of that for now. I will give both general advice and also some weekly assistance for this advanced waiver process in this column. I hope you enjoy and get the player(s) you want every week. Here we go.

ASSUMPTIONS

As with anything in fantasy football, not all leagues are the same. Some are big, some are small. Such is the way with FAAB waivers. Some leagues use a big budget of $1,000 per owner or more, while others use $100 or less. I will assume $1,000 for the purposes of this article and let you, the reader, do the math to adjust to your league. Another difference is that in some leagues the FAAB process is the ONLY way to get new players. Other leagues have the FAAB process first and then allow free transactions for that week on any player not getting a bid (so you can cover your kicker's bye, for example, for free). I will assume that is NOT the case here and think that every transaction will cost you something. If it does not, great – but at least you know why I might say to grab a kicker now for a buck.

Now let's talk about bidding in general. For many more experienced leagues, round numbers are the kiss of death. Even older leagues (and owners) start to see bidding trends over time ("Jeff loves to end in a 7"), which can be dangerous when you are trying to outbid everyone. The natural assumption is to bid in large round numbers – please avoid that temptation. $53 vs. $50 may seem like a trivial difference, but many more people bid $50 instead of adding a few extra bucks that can change who wins.

Another generally accepted rule – do not be stingy early in the year. Sure it is nice to hold on to extra "cash" in case a stud RB goes down for the year, but look around your league and count how many NFL backups are even available on the waiver wire. Not many? Right. Go big early on players who seem to come out of nowhere, like Victor Cruz last year. Most fantasy studs appear on the scene in September instead of weeks later.

There is a "ying" to the "yang" of the last rule – which is to not excessively churn your roster. While it may not seem like much, but if you drop 5-10% of your bankroll each week on bench players that never see the light of day in your lineup, then you are just wasting money. Think about it this way – if you save for a rainy day, you can be prepared to go all out for when you need that money to go "all in" on a player you really want. Of course the trick is figuring out which player is worthy of such a big bid.

Last comment for now – it is far better to bid on a player a week or two early instead of a week late. That can be the difference between a $3 player and a $300 player. If you really want Frank Gore’s understudy, get him now before he pulls that hammy and everyone gets in on the action.

Week 3 Comment:  Another item to discuss – who to drop. Keep perspective on your team. If you are short on running backs, you probably want to cut a different position player to grab running back depth. To say that another way, if you are strong and deep already at wide receiver, a sixth or seventh wideout is very unlikely to help. Let that steer your cuts.

Week 4 Comment:  Bye weeks are starting now, so teams are going to be more active on the waiver wire, especially with Green Bay off in Week 4.  Kickers and defenses will be added and dropped, so start looking ahead and you’re your lineups for the weeks where you will be short a starter or two.  Depth is going to play a bigger part in the next several weeks, so do not be afraid to add players for a rainy day now instead of later.

Now, on to some specific players to target here in NFL Week 4 of the 2016 season:

BIG BUCKS

Big Bucks are reserved for immediate starter potential players (QB1, RB1/2, WR1/2/3, Flex, TE1) in most league formats.

• Christine Michael, RB, Seahawks ($355):  If Michael is available, he is the top pickup this week as Thomas Rawls has a leg injury that will likely sideline him for several weeks.  After a strong performance against San Francisco (20-106-2), Michael leaps into the RB1 conversation. 
• Eric Ebron, TE, Lions ($277, $331 in TE PPR-bonus leagues):  Detroit is throwing quite a bit this season already, and that will continue with their top running back (Ameer Abdullah) banged up.  That means more volume for the starting tight end Ebron, who will continue to see lots of targets over the middle and in the red zone.  Ebron’s 5-69 day against Green Bay in Week 3 looks to be a typical performance, but with multiple touchdown upside each week, he offers starting tight end value in good matchups.
• Terrelle Pryor, WR, Browns ($203):  What a week (and game) it was for Pryor, who lined up as both a receiver and a quarterback for the Browns against Miami.  Pryor had a very unique stat line (4-21-1 rushing, 8-144 receiving, 3-5-35 passing) to be one of the most interesting addition candidates on the waiver wire this week.  Should he continue to split time at both receiver and quarterback, he offers great upside in fantasy and in Week 4 (at Washington).
• Jordan Howard, RB, Bears ($202):  Jeremy Langford is expected to miss 4-6 weeks with an injured ankle, so Jordan Howard immediately elevates to a starting role.  Given the concerns for the Bears overall and the likely game scripts leading away from a run game, I see Howard as more of a RB2 than a RB1, but he is certainly worth adding and probably using right away against Detroit.  He also gets a bump in value in PPR leagues after adding 47 yards and four catches in addition to 9-45 rushing vs. Dallas on Sunday Night Football.
• Kyle Rudolph, TE, Vikings ($201, $251 in TE PPR-bonus leagues):  Rudolph is probably on a roster in most leagues, but if he is not, Sunday showed why he should be.  Sam Bradford found the big tight end in the end zone for a score against Carolina for the lone offensive touchdown of the day, highlighting Rudolph’s strong 7-70-1 performance in Week 3.  Expect more action for the TE2 with TE1 upside going forwards.

MEDIUM MONEY

Medium Money is reserved for players who could be bye week starters or that have upside potential on good matchups in most league formats.

• Trevor Siemian, QB, Broncos ($147): Carson Wentz is getting most of the press now, but Trevor Siemian was that other first time starter for a 3-0 team in the NFL.  Siemian answered the question of “what happens when a team shuts down the run game” with authority, throwing for over 300 yards and four scores against the Bengals for a big road win.  Siemian was accurate on all depths of passes, hitting deep strikes as well as short and intermediate passes.  The young passer looked poised and ready for all comers, and looks like a QB2 with very high QB1 upside if you need him as a starter.
• Steve Smith, WR, Ravens ($135):  The Ravens are one of the quietest 3-0 teams you would ever find, but that sleepiness can be to your advantage.  Joe Flacco is moving the ball through the air with all of his targets, and in Week 3 he went back to another veteran in Steve Smith Sr. for a strong performance (8-87) against Jacksonville.  With almost no ground game, Baltimore will be throwing often this season, making all the main receivers solid values.
• Fozzy Whittaker, RB, Panthers ($133):  Jonathan Stewart (hamstring) is out for several weeks, so the questions were which back would take over the load (or if a committee would form).  As I mentioned last week, the Week 3 matchup against the Vikings was a tough one so do not judge Carolina’s backfield by last Sunday alone.  Whittaker stepped up in a big way with 100 yards on just 16 carries and added three catches for 31 yards on four targets in Week 2, and he had 10 touches (five carries and catches each) for 56 total yards against Minnesota.  I still put Whittaker’s value as relatively high with three plus matchups (at Atlanta, Tampa Bay, at New Orleans) in Weeks 4-6.
• Cameron Artis-Payne, RB, Panthers ($131):  Carolina split their backfield workload between Artis-Payne and Whittaker now that Jonathan Stewart is out for several weeks.  Artis-Payne had 13 touches (12-47 rushing, 1-11 receiving) compared to 10 for Whittaker against the Vikings in Week 3, which strongly hints at a timeshare.  If you believe Artis-Payne will be the lead back for Carolina the next several weeks, he is definitely adding as Carolina has a relatively high value with three plus matchups (at Atlanta, Tampa Bay, at New Orleans) in Weeks 4-6.
• Cole Beasley, WR, Cowboys ($129):  Dak Prescott likes to target his slot receiver in Beasley, who leads the team in targets with 25 in three games.  Beasley nearly scored on one of his seven receptions against the Bears in Week 3, which would have turned his solid numbers (7-73) into strong ones.  Look for him to get in the end zone soon as he is fast becoming a PPR league WR3.
• Theo Riddick, RB, Lions ($127):  Detroit is filling the void created by the Ameer Abdullah injury with both Riddick and Dwayne Washington, but game scripts such as Week 3 (large lead by Green Bay) pushed Riddick towards more action.  Riddick is getting a lot of touches (10 carries, seven catches) but only 48 total yards, so do not bid too much here.
• Cameron Brate, TE, Buccaneers ($125, $157 in TE PPR-bonus leagues):  Tampa Bay gave up on Austin Sefarian-Jenkins, leaving Cameron Brate as the one and only starter at tight end for the Buccaneers.  Brate stepped up again in Week 3, pulling down five of ten targets for just 46 yards, but the more important part was two red zone touchdowns.  Brate is a big, reliable target for Jameis Winston, who looks like he will be throwing a lot this season.
• Coby Fleener, TE, Saints ($123, $145 in TE PPR-bonus leagues):  Fleener finally looked the part of a fantasy TE1 on Monday Night Football against Atlanta, reeling in seven passes for 109 yards and a score in Week 3.  With Willie Snead sidelined and Atlanta’s poor secondary, Drew Brees was able to connect with the big tight end several times on the night.  Fleener gets a plus matchup next week against the Chargers.
• Jameis Winston, QB, Buccaneers ($122):  I have been calling Winston a poor man’s Cam Newton for a while, and with numbers like he posted in Week 3 (405-3-1 passing, 4-13 rushing), that seems very justified . The big takeaway I saw was 58 attempts, which is about two away from his arm falling off, but volume is volume.  Winston has a lot of targets and with a porous defense he looks to be throwing a ton this season.  He has a rough matchup the next two weeks (Denver, Carolina) but I can see a lot of value in good matchups and in the fantasy playoffs (Week 15 = at Atlanta, Week 16 = at Los Angeles).  Great pickup now if you can wait on him for December.
• Carson Wentz, QB, Eagles ($121):  The rookie is 3-0 for the Eagles and looks like a veteran with zero turnovers in his first three starts.  The first two weeks could have been an aberration after wins over lowly Cleveland and Chicago, but a win over Pittsburgh?  Time to take notice.  Wentz had strong numbers (23-31-301-2-0) and looks like a great option for both the Eagles and fantasy teams alike.
• Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys ($120):  Another rookie under center that offers QB1 value, thanks to his dual threat status as a passer (19-278-1) and rusher (4-36-1).  Prescott posted strong numbers against the Bears and will be under center for quite a while with Tony Romo out at least half this season.
• Michael Thomas, WR, Saints ($120):  With no Willie Snead in Week 3, Michael Thomas saw a heavy workload as he worked from the slot against the Falcons.  Thomas showed no fear going inside and across the middle several times in heavy traffic, and he collected 7 of 11 targets for 71 yards and a short touchdown (and nearly had another).  Thomas offers WR3 value when Brees is on, which is usually at home.  Both get a plus matchup next week at San Diego.
• Jamison Crowder, WR, Washington ($119):  Another solid week (4-78-1) for the slot receiver in Washington.  Crowder found the end zone on a great run after a short wide receiver screen pass against the Giants.  Washington has some plus matchups ahead (Cleveland, at Baltimore) so Crowder is a solid WR3/flex/bye week filling option for your roster, especially in PPR leagues.
• Zach Miller, TE, Bears ($118, $151 in TE PPR-bonus leagues):  The Bears are not very good, and they just lost Jeremy Langford due to an injury.  That all points to throwing quite a bit in games going forwards, which bodes well for their receivers.  Highlight Zach Miller here with two touchdowns and good overall numbers (8-78) against Dallas in Week 3.  Chicago has great matchups the next few weeks (Detroit, Indianapolis) so he could be a TE1 both weeks.
• Hunter Henry, TE, Chargers ($117, $147 in TE PPR-bonus leagues):  With Antonio Gates out, Hunter Henry had the chance to show everyone why he was a second round pick this year from Arkansas.  Henry collected all five of his targets for 76 yards, and he helped San Diego move the chains.  He will be remembered for a key fumble late in the Colts contest, but the talent and upside is clearly there if Gates continues to miss starts.
• Devante Parker, WR, Dolphins ($117):  In case you have missed it, Miami is struggling to run the ball and are falling behind nearly every week.  That favors the passing game, so getting a piece of it with Parker is not a bad idea.  The Dolphins often line up with three wide receivers on the field, making both Parker and Kenny Stills WR3/flex options.  In strong matchups like Week 3 (vs. Cleveland, 3-51-1) he has WR3 / flex appeal.
• Charles Sims, RB, Buccaneers ($116):  Doug Martin tweaked his hamstring in Week 2, which opened the door for Charles Sims to take over lead back duties for Tampa Bay.  Sims posted over 100 combined yards and a touchdown against the Rams in Week 3, but tough matchups loom (Denver, Carolina).  Temper expectations if you want to add him and use him in the short term.
• Kenyan Drake, RB, Dolphins ($115):  Starting running backs are always worth a pickup, but in this case Miami is still running a committee with Drake and Jay Ajayi.  Compounding the issue with a big bid here is that the Dolphins have not produced much with their running backs and ground game, so temper expectations with a high bid on Drake.
• Darren Sproles, RB, Eagles ($114):  Great week to add Eagles players as most will be off them with their bye week.  Sproles sees action as a rusher, returner and receiver, and can break any play for a big gain as he did in Week 3 against Pittsburgh with a 73-yard catch and run on a broken play.  Sproles finished with a strong 6-128-1 line as a receiver and offers great value as a flex player every week.
• DeAndre Washington, RB, Raiders ($113):  Starter Latavius Murray may have found the end zone, but he now has company in the Oakland backfield.  Rookie tailback DeAndre Washington was only on the field for 18 snaps, but he made the most of it with 6-57 rushing and a five yard catch on his only target.  Washington has a lot of speed and quickness, so if Murray starts to fall out of favor or gets banged up, Washington owners will have a value fantasy asset.
• Jimmy Graham, TE, Seahawks ($109, $121 in TE PPR-bonus leagues):  Finally!  Jimmy Graham caught six balls for an even 100 yards and a score in Week 3 against San Francisco.  The question is, did Russell Wilson look in his direction more on purpose, or was it because Tyler Lockett was only playing limited snaps?  Either way, Graham deserves a roster spot in most leagues as a TE2 with TE1 upside.
• Tavon Austin, WR, Rams ($111):  Austin finally found the end zone (and saw some deeper targets) in Week 3, breaking a tackle to waltz in for a touchdown to highlight his 5-82-1 day.  The Los Angeles offense is still rather unreliable, but he is worth flex spot and bench consideration.
• Kevin White, WR, Bears ($109):  Similar story as Zach Miller: the Bears are not very good, and they just lost Jeremy Langford due to an injury.  That all points to throwing quite a bit in games going forwards, which bodes well for their receivers.  White had a solid performance against Dallas (6-62) and has great matchups the next few weeks (Detroit, Indianapolis).
• Jack Doyle, TE, Colts ($107, $135 in TE PPR-bonus leagues):  Doyle’s value was questionable after Week 1 with two of his three catches going for scores against Detroit.  Week 2 added to the intrigue as he played 45 snaps and posted a 4-37 day on five targets.  Now in Week 3 he outplayed Dwayne Allen again, catching all six targets for 65 yards against San Diego.  His upside is tied to touchdowns, but with Andrew Luck clearly liking the big tight end, he is a TE2 at least with TE1 upside.
• Adam Humphries, WR, Buccaneers ($105):  Okay, I can hear you all saying “WHO?” really loudly now, but bear with me.  Tampa Bay threw for over 400 yards in Week 3, and Humphries had 100 of those yards on nine catches.  He is basically their possession and slot receiver, and he is getting a lot of volume.  Great WR3 for PPR leagues and sneaky add this week.
• Orleans Darkwa, RB, Giants ($104):  The Giants have been looking for some help in their backfield, and now that Shane Vereen (triceps) and Rashad Jennings (thumb) are both hurting, Darkwa may be that next man up.  He looked solid against Washington, finding the end zone once on his 10 carries for 53 yards (he also added a nine-yard catch).  Darkwa is probably not a fantasy starter yet, but he has bench value and some upside if his role continues to grow.
• Robert Woods, WR, Bills ($103):  If you need some wide receiver depth in a PPR league, consider Robert Woods.  He was the top receiver for Buffalo in Week 3, but it was pretty much by default with Sammy Watkins (and Greg Salas) out.  Woods had a pedestrian performance (eight targets, 6-51 receiving) so unless he breaks a big one, he offers little upside as not much more than a flex / WR3 option.   

CHUMP CHANGE

Chump Change is reserved for players who are relatively considered to be a good flier pick to stash on a fantasy bench in case he blows up over the next few weeks and becomes a potential immediate or spot starter.

• Brandon Coleman, WR, Saints ($98):  Coleman saw a heavy workload on Monday Night Football, catching 7 of 8 targets for 78 yards.  With Willie Snead out and against a weak Atlanta secondary, Drew Brees was able to get the ball to Coleman early and often.  If Snead is out once again, Coleman has a plus matchup against the Chargers in Week 4.
• Kenny Stills, WR, Dolphins ($95):  Miami is struggling on offense, especially on the ground, but the passing game looks to be the one strong suit.  The Dolphins often line up with three wide receivers on the field, making both Stills and DeVante Parker WR3/flex options.  Stills produced a solid stat line (5-76) against Cleveland in Week 3, which hints at WR3/flex potential in good matchups.
• John Brown, WR, Cardinals ($91):  Arizona did not look good in Buffalo in Week 3, but one small bright spot was John Brown.  Brown led the team in targets (11) and receiving (6-70), and he was on the field quite often (47 snaps), which hints that he may be back in the mix as the third receiver for the Cardinals.    Once Carson Palmer rights himself, Brown will have some bench value and if anything happens to Larry Fitzgerald or Michael Floyd, Brown becomes a hot pickup.  Brown is one of those rare adds for both “WR handcuff” and bench value, so consider adding him if you have Fitzgerald or Floyd and a deep bench.
• Wendell Smallwood, RB, Eagles ($85):  Great time to add Smallwood as Philadelphia is on a bye.  Could he be emerging as their top rusher?  Smallwood had 17 carries for 79 yards and a score, and he looked impressive.  If ever there was a good time for a team to change starters, over the two week bye week break is the perfect time.  Pick him up and hope that is how it plays out.
• Ryan Griffin, TE, Texans ($77, $93 in TE PPR-bonus leagues):  The Texans had to move the ball somehow against New England, and they chose short tosses to their big tight end.  That resulted in eight catches for Griffin but only 52 yards, making him not worth much except in very favorable PPR leagues.
• Terrance Williams, WR, Cowboys ($67):  Four targets, four catches and 88 yards looks good in Week 3, but only eight targets all year.  Tough to pick him up just yet.
• Brian Hoyer, QB, Bears ($45):  Most of his stats (317 yards, two touchdowns) were from garbage time as Dallas had Sunday Night Football well in hand.  That said, Chicago is going to have to throw a ton with a bad defense, so he offers QB2 value with some upside in good matchups, which he does get the next two weeks (Detroit, Colts).
• Corey Brown, WR, Panthers ($33):  Aside from TE Greg Olsen, Cam Newton does not really target a particular receiver with regularity.  That makes Corey Brown’s 4-57 day in Week 3 someone forgettable, because predicting his next performance spike is extremely hard to do without injuries to one of the top three receivers. 
• Chandler Catanzaro, PK, Cardinals ($15):  In case you missed it in a blowout loss for Arizona, Catanzaro nailed a 60-yard field goal at Buffalo.  A big leg like that for a team that needs to increase points is worth picking up if you need a kicker, especially in a league with distance bonuses.     

Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.

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