Welcome to "Money Talks". The general purpose of this column will be to give you some advice for one of the more popular methods of adding new fantasy players each week – the Free Agency Acquisition Budget, or "FAAB". What this is in a nutshell is a budget of money that every team is given to bid on free agents each week, much like in an auction. Usually this is done via blind bids, meaning that no other owner knows how much you have bid on a given player – unless you announce your bid in some sort of a poker-like bluff move. Some leagues do reveal all bids after the bidding is closed and waivers are processed, while other leagues just show winning bids. It can be fun to see if several teams bid on a given player or if an owner spent a ton of money on a guy no one else even wanted.
Enough of that for now. I will give both general advice and also some weekly assistance for this advanced waiver process in this column. I hope you enjoy and get the player(s) you want every week. Here we go.
ASSUMPTIONS
As with anything in fantasy football, not all leagues are the same. Some are big, some are small. Such is the way with FAAB waivers. Some leagues use a big budget of $1,000 per owner or more, while others use $100 or less. I will assume $1,000 for the purposes of this article and let you, the reader, do the math to adjust to your league. Another difference is that in some leagues the FAAB process is the ONLY way to get new players. Other leagues have the FAAB process first and then allow free transactions for that week on any player not getting a bid (so you can cover your kicker's bye, for example, for free). I will assume that is NOT the case here and think that every transaction will cost you something. If it does not, great – but at least you know why I might say to grab a kicker now for a buck.
Now let's talk about bidding in general. For many more experienced leagues, round numbers are the kiss of death. Even older leagues (and owners) start to see bidding trends over time ("Jeff loves to end in a 7"), which can be dangerous when you are trying to outbid everyone. The natural assumption is to bid in large round numbers – please avoid that temptation. $53 vs. $50 may seem like a trivial difference, but many more people bid $50 instead of adding a few extra bucks that can change who wins.
Another generally accepted rule – do not be stingy early in the year. Sure it is nice to hold on to extra "cash" in case a stud RB goes down for the year, but look around your league and count how many NFL backups are even available on the waiver wire. Not many? Right. Go big early on players who seem to come out of nowhere, like Victor Cruz last year. Most fantasy studs appear on the scene in September instead of weeks later.
There is a "ying" to the "yang" of the last rule – which is to not excessively churn your roster. While it may not seem like much, but if you drop 5-10% of your bankroll each week on bench players that never see the light of day in your lineup, then you are just wasting money. Think about it this way – if you save for a rainy day, you can be prepared to go all out for when you need that money to go "all in" on a player you really want. Of course the trick is figuring out which player is worthy of such a big bid.
Last comment for now – it is far better to bid on a player a week or two early instead of a week late. That can be the difference between a $3 player and a $300 player. If you really want Adrian Peterson’s understudy, get him now before Peterson pulls that hammy and everyone gets in on the action.
Week 3 Comment: Another item to discuss – who to drop. Keep perspective on your team. If you are short on running backs, you probably want to cut a different position player to grab running back depth. To say that another way, if you are strong and deep already at wide receiver, a sixth or seventh wideout is very unlikely to help. Let that steer your cuts.
Now, on to some specific players to target here in NFL Week 3 of the 2014 season:
BIG BUCKS
Big Bucks are reserved for immediate starter potential players (QB1, RB1/2, WR1/2/3, Flex, TE1) in most league formats.
- Matt Jones, RB, Washington ($425): Washington wants to run the ball and play defense, and Matt Jones sure looks like a considerable threat to Alfred Morris’ lead role in the backfield. Morris has never been a PPR guy, so Jones will be the third down back and has a ton of explosiveness as he showed in Week 2 with over 100 yards and two scores. Jones is a must add this week.
- David Johnson, RB, Cardinals ($327): I mentioned last week that you might be able to steal David Johnson for under $100 with some owners going after Chris Johnson this week. I hope that you did, and if you didn’t, well, the price for him is now much higher. Pretty soon everyone will see that David should start ahead of Chris, and you better own him if he does.
- Donte Moncrief, WR, Colts ($317): T.Y. Hilton came back on Monday Night Football, but he didn’t look 100% after a big gain in the fourth quarter. Moncrief had over 100 yards and a touchdown and looks like a strong WR2 (ahead of Andre Johnson) for the Colts, who need playmakers. Snap him up if he is available.
- Carson Palmer, QB, Cardinals ($275): Palmer lit up Chicago last week and with quarterbacks already hitting the injury report, you need two solid options. Grab Palmer if you have a bye week coming or if you suffered an unfortunate injury at the QB spot.
- Dion Lewis, RB, Patriots ($265): New England loves to run the ball and use backs in a short passing game, but temper the expectations here as the Patriots had to throw a ton in Weeks 1 and 2. If New England gets a lead, it is still unclear what running back will pound the ball in the fourth quarter. Lewis is certainly valuable, but be careful in how much you (over)spend.
- Devonta Freeman, RB, Falcons ($225): If Freeman is available, grab him as Tevin Coleman has a rib injury that could keep him out. That makes Freeman the lead back and has lots of PPR upside.
MEDIUM MONEY
Medium Money is reserved for players who could be bye week starters or that have upside potential on good matchups in most league formats.
- Jordan Reed, TE, Washington ($165, $221 in TE-PPR bonus leagues): Reed led all Washington receivers with 11 targets on which he produced solid numbers (7-63-1), making him one of the few bright spots in Week 1. He then followed that up with a perfect 6-for-6 on his targets in Week 2, racking up 82 yards. Reed looks like a TE1 going forward and should be rostered in all league formats (that need a tight end).
- Andy Dalton, QB, Bengals ($155): Dalton has to be on speed dial for anyone who lost a quarterback this week. Surrounded by strong receiving options at all the skill positions, Dalton can throw for three scores in any given contest.
- Cole Beasley, WR, Cowboys ($152): Beasley has to see more targets now with Brandon Weeden at quarterback and Jason Witten very banged up.
- Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Vikings ($140): If you need a starting quarterback, you can do much worse than Bridgewater. He is a solid option with limited upside due to Adrian Peterson, but Bridgewater can patch your roster if you need a QB.
- Isaiah Crowell, RB, Browns ($135): Could Cleveland be settling on a lead back? If so, Crowell looks to be the guy after a solid game with a touchdown, but Duke Johnson Jr does remain a threat for touches.
- Karlos Williams, RB, Bills ($131): Rex Ryan is going to run, run, run the ball this year, and if anything happens to LeSean McCoy, Williams will be the back to own. Williams found the end zone in both Week 1 and Week2 and he has value already in the Buffalo offense. Buy him now before he gets even more valuable.
- Derek Carr, QB, Raiders ($111): As long as Amari Cooper is putting up 100 yards a game, Carr has value. Throw in Michael Crabtree and in good matchups, Carr can be a decent starter.
- James Starks, RB, Packers ($103): If you own Eddie Lacy, you simply must own James Starks – it’s that simple. Starks is the lead back whenever Lacy is out, and while Lacy may be back for Week 3, Starks just showed everyone that he can carry the mail if asked.
CHUMP CHANGE
Chump Change is reserved for players who are relatively considered to be a good flier pick to stash on a fantasy bench in case he blows up over the next few weeks and becomes a potential immediate or spot starter.
- Jared Cook, TE, Rams ($97, $113 in TE-PPR bonus leagues): Nick Foles loves a big tight end, and for two weeks in a row, Cook has had five catches for the Rams. He has TE2 value with TE1 upside.
- Joe Flacco, QB, Ravens ($98): Baltimore threw a ton against Oakland in Week 2, but the Ravens still fell to 0-2. With tough matchups ahead, Flacco may have to throw a lot to keep his team in contests, which gives him a lot of fantasy upside. Quarterbacks are starting to get thin, so I like Flacco as a QB2 with QB1 potential in some matchups.
- Eli Manning, QB, Giants ($88): The Giants blew two leads in the fourth quarters in Weeks 1 and 2, and if New York continues to struggle, Manning will have to be throwing all game long. As long as Eli has Odell Beckham Jr., Manning will be a QB2 with QB1 upside.
- Marcus Mariota, QB, Titans ($77): Mariota had a perfect QB rating of 158.3 in Week 1 and a solid performance on the road against Cleveland in Week 2. If you need a quarterback, snap him up with the Colts ahead for him in Week 3.
- Lorenzo Taliaferro, RB, Ravens ($73): Taliaferro vulture a touchdown from Justin Forsett and he showed that he is clearly the best RB2 on the team. Not a ton of upside with Forsett healthy, though.
- Crockett Gillmore, TE, Ravens ($71, $99 in TE-PPR bonus leagues): Joe Flacco loves to throw to tight ends, and if he has one that knows how to get open across the middle, he will find him. Gillmore does not offer much after the catch, but when you get open in the end zone and score twice, it really does not matter.
- Rishard Matthews, WR, Dolphins ($71): Matthews was probably the only Miami receiver not talked up this preseason, and all he did in two weeks was catch 10 passes for 149 yards and a touchdown. If you believe in Ryan Tannehill, you have to like a guy he has targeted 13 times already.
- Gavin Escobar, TE, Cowboys ($71, $99 in TE-PPR bonus leagues): Dez Bryant is out, so somehow Tony Romo is going to have to move the ball through the air. Escobar has pushed Jason Witten in the past for playing time, and with Witten banged up and Brandon Weeden used to working with the second string, Escobar has upside.
- Duke Johnson Jr, RB, Browns ($70): It looks like Isaiah Crowell is going to be the main guy for Cleveland after a solid game with a touchdown, but Johnson does remain a threat for touches as he had 12 carries compared to 15 for Crowell.
- Lance Dunbar, RB, Cowboys ($67): Dez Bryant is out, Jason Witten is banged up and Brandon Weeden is the quarterback. I see Dallas needing to dink and dunk passes all game long, playing into Dunbar’s strengths.
- Travis Benjamin, WR, Browns ($66): Explosive receiver that was targeted deep often by Johnny Manziel. Great home run pickup.
- Eric Ebron, TE, Lions ($65, $81 in TE-PPR bonus leagues): Ebron is seeing the field a lot for the Lions, but if Matthew Stafford is not at full strength, his value does decline. There are better options at tight end on the waiver wire.
- Jameis Winston, QB, Buccaneers ($65): Winston can run and throw for fantasy points and production, but he did just lose his big tight end (Austin Seferian-Jenkins) for about a month – but he should also be getting Mike Evans at full strength in his place. Winston is a solid QB2 with upside.
- Tyrod Taylor, QB, Bills ($64): The upside is here with Taylor’s dual threat status as both a rusher and a passer for Buffalo. The matchup against New England in Week 2 provided a lot of points for Taylor, but it remains to be seen if he will be asked to produce like that every week.
- Johnny Manziel, QB, Browns ($62): Lots of quarterbacks on the list for Week 3, and you cannot scratch Manziel off the list if you need one. He could be Cleveland’s permanent starter and he will throw the home run ball every game. Week 3 offers potential against Oakland.
- Brandon Weeden, QB, Cowboys ($57): If you lost Cutler or Romo this week and the waiver wire is bare, Weeden is the best “new starter” quarterback option because he will be starting for the next two months. If you want to take a huge flyer and have a deep, DEEP roster, consider Kellen Moore.
- Leonard Hankerson, WR, Falcons ($55): The WR2 spot in Atlanta has a lot of fantasy value, and we all know that Roddy White is getting old. Could Hankerson be pushing for that spot? Take a flier on him now in case he steals that role.
- Michael Crabtree, WR, Raiders ($53): Oakland actually looked pretty good in Week 2 against Baltimore, but the Ravens’ secondary may have helped here. Crabtree is worth an addition, but not sure about when to start him, especially with Amari Cooper as the lead receiver.
- DeAngelo Williams, RB, Steelers ($34): Williams still has some fuel left in the tank after all these years. If LeVeon Bell misses any time (again) then Williams is again a spot starter.
- Coby Fleener, TE, Colts ($25, $33 in TE-PPR bonus leagues): Sort of a hunch play here, but Dwayne Allen was hurt on Monday Night Football which could open things up for Fleener.
- Willie Snead, WR, Saints ($22): Over 100 yards and a touchdown already for this guy that no one is really on – yet. Speculative pickup but could pay off.
- Josh Robinson, RB, Colts ($15): Nice handcuff for Frank Gore owners to own. Grab and stash here.
- Kirk Cousins, QB, Washington ($11): A decent option if you need a quarterback, but not as good as other options that should be on the waiver wire.
- Jeremy Langford, RB, Bears ($7): Here is your handcuff, Matt Forte owners.
- Jimmy Clausen, QB, Bears ($5): Desperation addition only with Jay Cutler out a few weeks.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.
