A new standard for what is and isn't a roller-coaster season has been established. For the foreseeable future at least, the Tamp Bay Buccaneers' 2013 season will set the standard for the most topsy-turvy, inexplicable twisting ride of highs and lows within a 16 game stretch.
The Buccaneers entered the season with Doug Martin and Josh Freeman leading their offense, while Darrelle Revis and Dashon Goldson had arrived to rebuild the defense. Superstar cornerback Revis was quickly shoved into the spotlight, as the Buccaneers refused to put him in the best position to succeed individually and the best position to harness his capability for making his teammates better. Quarterback Josh Freeman was embroiled in an ugly spat with his head coach that saw him benched before he was ultimately released. Goldson was as inconsistent as advertised as a free agent addition, while Doug Martin landed on IR.
Alone, those four aspects of the Buccaneers' 2013 season should have crippled them, but that was just the tip of the iceberg.
Head coach Greg Schiano continually set a tone that displeased many of those across the NFL landscape and seemingly those within his locker room also. Both defensive tackle Gerald McCoy and Revis questioned how they were being used, while the benching of Freeman was widely scrutinised in the media. Add in the MRSA outbreak that couldn't really be blamed on the head coach but still made his job much tougher and it was clear that Schiano was a lock to be fired before the end of the season.
Fast forward a few weeks and Mike Glennon soildified the quarterback position, upgraded it even, while Bobby Rainey provided a spark that Martin had been lacking at the running back position before he went out injured. Revis was now being used more to his liking, while McCoy was dominating opposing team's offensive lines because he was being used correctly.
Instead of falling apart and accepting their fate as a team set for a complete rebuild, the Buccaneers became a team that nobody wanted to face. A team that turned an eight game losing streak into a 4-2 stretch. A team that wasn't going to the playoffs, but one that could easily drag others down with them.
Schiano appears to have saved his job. Even though he can probably give some thanks to the Miami Dolphins for deflecting attention from him, he is still going to be under huge pressure moving forward. That is because Schiano has an incredibly tough choice to make in the offseason if he stays in Tampa Bay.
As with all franchises, finding the right quarterback is a must. With opportunities to draft potential franchise quarterbacks coming up in the 2014 NFL draft, the Buccaneers need to make a decision on Mike Glennon and they need to do it before they really have a fair assessment of him.
Glennon has played relatively well for a rookie. He clearly isn't Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, Cam Newton or even Robert Griffin III III, but he showed poise and enough NFL level talent to be a starting quarterback. Glennon took over for Freeman in Week 4 of the season and has started every game since. He has thrown for 2,231 yards, 17 touchdowns, eight interceptions and he has six fumbles during that time. He has been efficient despite the fact that key players such as Carl Nicks, Mike Williams and Doug Martin have all missed extensive time.
There is no doubt that the Buccaneers like what Glennon has done, but just like Nick Foles in Philadelphia, they need to decide if he is the best that they can get.
With Marcus Marriota already returning to school, reports suggesting that Teddy Bridgewater might do the same and the Chicago Bears' commitment to Jay Cutler, it's likely that the Buccaneers won't have many other options outside of Glennon. With two games left in the season, that means the odds are in favour of Glennon.
For fantasy owners, this is a crucial decision that will impact everyone. Not only could Glennon's individual value become much greater or flop to the point that he is overvalued, his presence will also affect Martin, Rainey, Williams, Vincent Jackson, Tiquan Underwood and Tim Wright. There is the makings of a very talented offense in Tampa Bay, but only if the quarterback can excel.
Against the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday, we got a mixed back from Glennon.
Vision
As with all inexperienced quarterbacks, there are times when they are going to make mistakes that will frustrate you.
Very early in the game, on third and seven, Glennon made a bad decision. However, it should be noted that the degree of bad decisions is not either/or but rather based on a scale. Here, Glennon makes a bad decision, but not a horrible one. The Buccaneers stack two receivers to the left, which draws the 49ers linebackers to that side of the field. One linebacker stays to the right side of the formation because there is another receiver tight to the offensive line with Vincent Jackson spread wide right.
The above image doesn't show it, but both of the 49ers' safeties are deep creating a Cover-2 look.
The 49ers blow an assignment at the snap that means Underwood is wide open and running into space for an easy first down. If Glennon looks at him immediately, then he would have a simple pass for an easy completion. He does initially look to the left, but never recognises the blown assignment as he is too focused on his running back running out from the backfield. The 49ers are in man coverage and the deep safety is too deep to stop Underwood before the first down marker.
Missing Underwood at the snap isn't a major issue, but now that he is still wide open and demonstrating that he is wide open by waving his hands Glennon needs to see him. It's not like Underwood is on the other side of the field, he should be in his peripheral vision. The one excuse for Glennon's mistake is that his running back has beaten the linebacker and is in position to also have a chance at getting the first down.
However, as the play rolls on, we see that Underwood could potentially have had a big play because the safety closes to him was coming from the other side of the field and it's always better to throw to an open receiver instead of an open running back when you have the chance. This play failed to get a first down because the running back dropped the football.
Glennon made a good throw, but it really wasn't the play that you'd want from your quarterback.
As a rookie, that kind of play is acceptable if frustrating. If Glennon wants to be a long-term starter, then that's not the kind of play that he can continue to make. He has to see the field because the Buccaneers figure to have a very dangerous set of weapons. Missing them can often mean missing important plays.
Anticipation/Accuracy/Mechanics
For his first touchdown pass of the day, Glennon showed off many traits that hint that he could be a very, very good quarterback.
Very late in the second quarter, the Buccaneers were in scoring position on first and 10. The offense came out with three receivers bunched to the right. That, and the situation, spread the 49ers defense out and gave the Buccaneers receivers free releases of the line.
Glennon initially looks to his left, but he very quickly turns back to the right side of the field to diagnose the coverage. With bunched receivers and off coverage, it's easier for Glennon to recognize the 49ers' zone coverage because the defenders stay back and don't commit to a receiver when they cross behind each other. Therefore, even at this very early stage in the play, Glennon knows what receiver he must throw to.
This is the type of play that makes the Buccaneers' decision tough. Even showing that ability rarely is enough to hint that he could be the franchise quarterback they need, even if others appear more appealing during the offseason.
Mobility
Although he is lanky and doesn't really have any threat as a scrambler, Glennon is athletic enough and poised enough to extend plays with his feet. Against the 49ers, there was one particular play that was really impressive.
Late in the third quarter, backed up close to their own goal line, the Buccaneers come out with an offset fullback to the same side as a tight end and a receiver to either side of the formation. The 49ers are in their base package while playing off coverage outside.
At the top of his drop, Glennon surveys the field for a split second before Aldon Smith is in his face. Smith beats Donald Penn inside with ease so he is essentially unblocked. Glennon quickly recognizes that Smith is coming free. He shuffles his feet and drops his shoulder before escaping into the left flat. This allows Penn to seal off Smith to the inside and give Glennon time to survey the field while on the move.
Crucially, Glennon keeps his shoulders square to the line of scrimmage as he is running into the flat. This allows him to always keep the ball in a throwing position. Even if Glennon had the ability to scramble for a big gain, Justin Smith was coming free off the line of scrimmage so he wouldn't have had a huge amount of space. Instead, Glennon looks down the field for a receiver.
With perfect balance, Glennon finds an open Vincent Jackson down the field for a first down. Jackson came free on a double move as he faked to go inside before breaking back outside when Glennon left the pocket.
On this throw, Glennon showed off good recpognition of when he needed to leave the pocket and excellent balance and control when he was outside of the pocket. For his second touchdown pass, he showed off excellent pocket awareness also when he stepped up into space before finding Tim Wright down the right seam. With this kind of consistent awareness, Glennon could be the franchise quarterback for the Buccaneers.
The real question then remains about just how good Glennon can be. While he looks very awkward on the field at times and he's not on the level of Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Ryan Tannehill or even Colin Kaepernick as one of the very best young quarterbacks in the NFL, he does still have enough potential to suggest that he could be very productive in the right situation.
Rashard Mendenhall's Health
The Arizona Cardinals are on the brink of the playoffs. They may need some help because they have a tough remaining two games, but even if they don't make it to the post-season, Bruce Arians' first season in Arizona can only be considered a success. Arians and general manager Steve Keim very quickly rebuilt an offense that needed lots of work and revamped a defense that was losing key pieces.
One of those offensive additions was former Pittsburgh Steelers running back Rashard Mendenhall.
Mendenhall tore his ACL two seasons ago and never looked to be fully healthy when he returned for his final season in Pittsburgh. He was reunited with Arians in the offseason, but knee issues continued to dog his season early on. In recent weeks, Mendenhall has looked much better and much healthier. His average is still low, but that is as much a product of the offensive line in front of him as it is his inability. Crucially, Mendenhall has remained a very good goal line back, giving him eight touchdowns on 186 carries this season.
Five of those touchdowns have come in the last five weeks. If that kind of form continues for Mendenhall, he should still be considered a sleeper entering 2014. That is not solely because of his performance, but also because Arians has shown a lot of loyalty to him this year and Jonathan Cooper is expected to return next season.
Cooper as a former first round pick at left guard should be a key component of Arians' running game that looks to feature pulling guards regularly.
Mendenhall has been in the league for six seasons, but he is still just 26 years of age. He will turn 27 before the start of next season and he has under 1,200 touches for his career so far. Mendenhall may have a short shelf-life left after next season, but with the Cardinals reluctance to rely on Andre Ellington they should still be looking for big contributors.
Notes on Young Receivers
Kendall Wright was contained by the Denver Broncos last week, but he rebounded this week with an exceptional display against the Cardinals. Wright repeatedly beat Patrick Peterson, different linebackers and found soft spots in zone coverage. His ability to make plays down the field and create with the ball in his hands returned as he continued to star in spite of his quarterback. Wright had opportunities for much more than his 12 receptions for 150 yards, but Fitzpatrick missed him on a number of occasions.
A few weeks back Andre Holmes exploded for the Oakland Raiders on Thanksgiving against his former team, the Dallas Cowboys. Holmes noted after that game that he had extra motivation because of who he was facing, but he has continually made impressive plays since stepping into a role during the season. Holmes had four receptions for 58 yards and a touchdown, including one exceptional reception.
Rookie wide reciever DeAndre Hopkins has had an underwhelming season. Yesterday, his frustration showed late on in the game. Hopkins hasn't been featured in the Texans' offense much all season long. In fact, he's been underused. Whenever he gets opportunities, he generally comes up with impressive plays. Late in the fourth quarter against the Indianapolis Colts, Hopkins went above the defensive back for a 39 yard catch with an excellent catch. If the Texans fix their quarterback problems in 2014 and implement a pass-first offense, Hopkins should be able to have a big season.
Another rookie receiver dealing with bad quarterback play is the Buffalo Bills' Robert Woods. Woods has had an inconsistent season also, but against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 15, he arguably had his best game of the season. Woods made a variety of very impressive receptions on poorly placed passes. With his precise route running and athleticism, Woods has a lot of potential moving forward.
Notes on Young Running Backs
At this point, the 2013 class of running backs appears to be overflowing with high quality NFL players. LeVeon Bell's statistics in Pittsburgh don't reflect his performances for the Steelers. Eddie Lacy has found his perfect fit with the Green Bay Packers. Giovani Bernard and Andre Ellington just need to touch the ball more, something they should do as their careers continue to develop. Zac Stacy is simply a star for the St. Louis Rams.
One of the less talked about backs from this class has been Montee Ball of the Denver Broncos. Ball has had his struggles, but he's also made some impressive plays alongside Peyton Manning in the backfield. Importantly, Ball appears to fit perfectly for what the Broncos want to do. Much like Knowhson Moreno, he doesn't excel in one specific area, but rather he is able to do everything effectively and consistently.
Even though there may not be a Jamaal Charles or LeSean McCoy from this class, there are a number of backs who should be able to produce in the NFL for a very long time.