This is a tough time of the season. Lots will change between now and next season, but we have very little hard evidence to follow. A few teams don't even have a head coach at this point, while others have free agents that they must prioritize. Understanding where pieces will go and what pieces will be prioritized over others in 2014 can't be gleaned just yet, but we can still set the table for what is going to happen in the offseason.
In recent weeks, I have spent a huge amount of time reviewing running back situations and scouting every player playing the position in the league. In a two part series, one piece posting this week and the other next week, I'm going to look at where I think each team's running back situation is going and who I like or dislike at the position.
Part one will look at the AFC. Part two will look at the NFC.
Buffalo Bills
Is there a Feature Back? Although his season was hampered by injury, I see no real reason to think C.J. Spiller won't be the focal point of the Bills offense in 2014. Fred Jackson played relatively well in 2013 and had a very productive year statistically, but he has slowed and he is 32 years of age now. Jackson doesn't have a huge amount of wear-and-tear on his body because of how the path of his career has gone, but typically running backs will drop off suddenly rather than gradually. It's hard to think that Jackson will last much longer, so Spiller will be expected to carry a much greater load in 2014. Spiller's struggles in 2013 were overblown, he was affected by his injury, but his burst was still there at times and he averaged 4.6 yards per carry.
Who is the Primary Backup? Fred Jackson should at least enter training camp next season in this role, but don't be surprised if the Bills look to add some formiddable competition for him to fend off. Fullback Frank Summers isn't scared of carrying the football or catching it out of the backfield, but the Bills need to find someone who can threaten the top of the running back depth chart.
Chances of Bringing in a New Face: This is very likely. Whether it's a veteran free agent addition or a mid-round draft pick, the Bills will likely look for someone who can either compete with Jackson for the backup spot immediately, or develop behind him as his heir. The starting role should be Spiller's for at least two or three years though as he is still only 26.
Miami Dolphins
Is there a Feature Back? It seems likely that the Dolphins will continue with Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas as their running back combination. Miller is the more physically talented player and he featured more in the offense in 2013, but Thomas has shown development since entering the league. He may never pry the bigger role away from Miller, but this could become more of a shared role moving forward.
Who is the Primary Backup? Behind Miller and Thomas, 2013 fifth-round draft pick Mike Gillislee is waiting for an opportunity. Gillislee didn't do anything to suggest that he should be the Dolphins starter in 2014, but it's clear he has talent. If he is to take over a bigger role in the offense, he will need to develop over the offseason and impress in training camp and the preseason ahead of the 2014 regular season. His presence should prevent the Dolphins from investing in another back, but it will be very difficult to track his progress without NFL film to keep track of. Marcus Thigpen is also on the roster and has shown some flashes of talent, but he is older than Gillislee and has seemingly hit his ceiling.
Chances of Bringing in a New Face: The Dolphins have depth and youth at the running back position, they made all their moves last offseason when they let Reggie Bush leave.
New England Patriots
Is there a Feature Back? There are two strong options for the Patriots moving into 2014: Stevan Ridley and LeGarrette Blount. Ridley is clearly the better all-around player, but fumbles ruined his 2013 season. Incredibly, if I had to pick a favorite for the bigger load in 2014 right now, I would pick Blount. Although he was cast out of Tampa Bay in favor of Doug Martin, Blount has been really valuable for the Patriots offense. If he could be a greater factor in the receiving game, he could easily be a full-time feature back. Unfortunately, he doesn't have that ability so he is somewhat limited. As a runner, he has vision, patience, strength and enough speed to make big plays. Ridley will have to fight for his job.
Who is the Primary Backup? The Patriots don't really have a running back depth chart. They have different players for different roles. Ridley and Blount should be the primary runners, while Shane Vereen acts as the receiving option. Vereen is a very talented runner also, so it's possible he will see more carries if the Patriots have better receiving options around him in 2014.
Chances of Bringing in a New Face: It's unlikely. Bill Belichick can be very unpredictable with cuts before the season, so the possibility can't be completely ignored, but right now it seems like they are set at the position moving forward.
New York Jets
Is there a Feature Back? This role should be Chris Ivory's, but 2013 was another season when he didn't crack 200 carries. He did have 182 and he looked very good when he was on the field, so the Jets must feel that they can keep him moving into 2014. Ivory and Bilal Powell both did enough in 2014 to feel aggrieved if they don't return, but neither really made a claim for the starter spot. Powell is a smart runner with enough physical traits to be a good runner, but he's not a very impactful player. It's the same old story with Ivory, he needs to prove his durability because he's got everything else.
Who is the Primary Backup? Ivory and Powell covered for each other in 2013 and there is nothing of note behind them on the depth chart entering 2014. Mike Goodson is very talented, but he also barely played because of injury and suspension. Goodson will need to convince the Jets to keep him for camp, not least rely on him during the regular season.
Chances of Bringing in a New Face: The Jets can't afford to put a lot of money into a free agent or spend a high draft pick on a back, but they should look to bring in one or two pieces with starter potential.
Baltimore Ravens
Is there a Feature Back? It's almost impossible to argue for Ray Rice here. Rice is still relatively young and there are suspisions that his hip issue lingered longer than he let on during 2013, but Bernard Pierce is the favorite to carry the load for the Ravens in 2014. As much as Pierce's stock will elevate entering 2014, I'd still be wary of Rice. He will be 27 next season and there wasn't a major drop-off in his athleticism in 2013. Rice still showed excellent vision and the same strength he had in previous years. Everything was just slightly slower as if he was uncomfortable. That combined with his poor offensive line contributed to his underwhelming production. It's Pierce's job to win, but let's not bury Rice's career just yet.
Who is the Primary Backup? Rice will likely be the primary backup entering the season. He and Pierce should still rotate with each other next year. Bernard Scott is the third back, but he's a veteran who has hit his ceiling.
Chances of Bringing in a New Face: The Ravens let Bobby Rainey go this year. If they hadn't done that, he could have been their starter entering 2014. Instead, they will likely now be looking for a third back late in the draft.
Cincinnati Bengals
Is there a Feature Back? It'll be a disgrace if Giovani Bernard isn't the full-time back for the Bengals next season. BenJarvus Green-Ellis can hang around as a complementary piece, but Bernard is better on first and second down and he is a better receiver also. Green-Ellis' value to the Bengals is limited in a reserve role. He isn't a better short-yardage back than Bernard and he doesn't have the potential to break off big plays on fewer touches. Green-Ellis' strongest traits come before the line of scrimmage, so he is a high-volume runner. He could be playing for someone else in 2014.
Who is the Primary Backup? It could very easily be Green-Ellis if the Bengals are going to be conservative, but I don't think that would be a smart move. Rex Burkhead, a sixth round pick from the 2013 draft, is a viable candidate who could offer the same value to the Bengals in a backup role that Green-Ellis would. Cedric Peerman is also on the roster, but he hasn't done enough with his opportunities to this point in his career to suggest he can consistently contribute. Presuming they let Green-Ellis go, the Bengals would likely look to pick up a cheaper veteran free agent to fit in behind Bernard.
Chances of Bringing in a New Face: Again, this depends on Green-Ellis. Whoever comes in shouldn't be anything more than a complement to Bernard. Bernard may be short, but he's well built and has the talent to be an every down back.
Cleveland Browns
Is there a Feature Back? It won't be Willis McGahee and it shouldn't be Chris Ogbonnaya. Dion Lewis was impressive in the preseason before he landed on IR. Lewis likely won't be a feature back either, but he definitely has a chance to be a big contributor. Lewis is a versatile and agile runner who would be best in a complement role to a bigger back. Many have considered Ben Tate as a likely candidate for the Browns, but Toby Gerhart offers more upside. Gerhart has less wear-and-tear on his body and has been very impressive in limited time for the Minnesota Vikings. Tate has a previous torn Achilles and was slowed by injuries in 2013 also. It seems all but certain that the Browns will land a top free agent back or draft one in the top half of the NFL draft.
Who is the Primary Backup? Odds should be in Lewis' favour, but there is no clear candidate. Much like with the starting spot, the Browns could draft a prospect or sign a free agent to fill a backup role. Fozzy Whittaker offers some potential as a receiving back, but the glimpses of him in 2013 were too small to really project a role in 2014. Edwin Baker would be a surprise winner of any training camp competitions.
Chances of Bringing in a New Face: It's guaranteed. The only question is how many players they bring in to address the position.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Is there a Feature Back? LeVeon Bell is going to be the feature back for this offense in 2014. He was drafted in the second round of the 2013 draft and immediately became a focal point of the offense when he was healthy. Bell doesn't have breakaway speed, but he has exceptional vision, very quick feet, good power and the ability to be a big factor in the passing game. The Steelers fired their offensive line coach after the regular season, but the unit as a whole should continue to improve into next season. There is a lot of youth there and centers Maurkice Pouncey and Fernando Velasco could both return in 2014, giving them a flexibility to move pieces around.
Who is the Primary Backup? There is a level of unpredictability with the Steelers when it comes to running backs. Jonathan Dwyer was cut before the 2013 season. Isaac Redman entered the season as the starter because Bell was sidelined. After just a few weeks, Redman was released and Dwyer was re-signed. However, Dwyer wasn't the clear backup, as Felix Jones became an unlikely contributor. This role could be filled by anyone in 2014. Dwyer and Jones will likely enter camp, but LaRod Stephens-Howling can't be forgotten. Howling impressed during the preseason and was set to be a third-down back for the Steelers, but he suffered a season-ending injury very early on.
Chances of Bringing in a New Face: It's unlikely. They could bring in someone to be the clear backup, but the roster has too many holes to invest anything more than a late round draft pick.
Houston Texans
Is there a Feature Back? With Ben Tate hitting free ageny, Arian Foster should resume his role as the bell-cow for the Texans offense. Foster is versatile and talented enough to fit into whatever offense Bill O'Brien decides to implement in Houston. It's tough to write Foster off even though he struggled with injuries last season. He has endured a huge workload in his career and he carries a slender frame. However, he also was very effective on a bad offense last season when he was on the field. If the Texans find the right quarterback and move to a scheme that takes focus away from Foster, he could thrive. The talent is still there, but just like with any veteran back, it's all about durability now.
Who is the Primary Backup? Last week I discussed the potential of Jonathan Grimes. Grimes was a late-season addition to the Texans offense and he fit the zone-blocking scheme that Gary Kubiak had established in Houston. He may not fit the Texans new offense, so it's hard to predict whether he will be the backup or not, but he does offer a skill-set that complements Foster's. Dennis Johnson also showed off potential during his rookie season, but fumble concerns that trace back to his college days and inconsistency during his rookie season is working against him.
Chances of Bringing in a New Face: I would expect the Texans to select a running back in the mid or latter rounds of the draft.
Indianapolis Colts
Is there a Feature Back? Trent Richardson was supposed to be the answer, but as you likely know by now he hasn't panned out to this point. The Colts won't ever need a feature back if they structure their offense around Andrew Luck. For most of this season offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton has run a tight, rigid offense that focused on running the ball. However, later in the year he opened the offense up and spread his weapons around Luck. This suits both Richardson and Donald Brown better. Much like Knowshon Moreno in Denver, Brown has enjoyed a late rise in his career. He still isn't a high-volume runner, but he has enough receiving ability and speed to rack up the yards on fewer touches. Brown won't be the bell-cow, that role likely falls to Vick Ballard. Ballard was the Colts' starter before injury sent him to IR.
Who is the Primary Backup? Trent Richardson will be the backup until he proves himself more capable of playing to his potential. The new spread out offense that the Colts appear to be moving forward with should actually suit Richardson better than the one that tried to focus around him.
Chances of Bringing in a New Face: Very unlikely.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Is there a Feature Back? The Jaguars roster is set to undergo a lot of surgery. With veteran back Maurice Jones-Drew hitting free agency, the logical expectation would be that he doesn't return. However, Jones-Drew played well in 2013 and there have been some suggestions that he will return to Jacksonville. The Jaguars relied on him heavily even though he entered the season still recovering from injury. Even if the Jaguars do bring back Jones-Drew, it's unlikely that he is a feature back. Instead, chances are he will split carries with current backup Jordan Todman. Todman has bounced around a bit in the league, but he is still only 23 and showed a lot while on the field last season. He has the explosion and intelligence to adequately complement Jones-Drew.
Who is the Primary Backup? Surpassed Todman and Jones-Drew, there doesn't seem to be many carries to go around. If Jones-Drew doesn't re-sign as a free agent, then Todman will likely be the starter. The Jaguars could bring someone else in to make him the backup, but it doesn't seem likely. Denard Robinson barely featured in 2013, but the talent is there for him to develop into a good backup. He didn't receive enough touches in 2013 to really be evaluated, so it's unclear how highly the Jaguars will think of him in 2014.
Chances of Bringing in a New Face: It seems unlikely. Re-signing Jones-Drew, who is 28, will determine everything. If Jones-Drew re-signs, they won't add anyone of note. If he leaves, they could sign someone or draft someone high, but it's still unlikely because they need to invest in the offensive line and on defense.
Tennessee Titans
Is there a Feature Back? With Mike Munchak no longer in the head coach role, it appears inevitable that Chris Johnson and the Titans part ways. Johnson played well in 2013, but because of the expectations that come with a back who had previously run for 2,000 yards, his play is somewhat looked down on. Shonn Greene was the primary backup, with Jackie Battle also used throughout the season. Greene played well in a backup role, but he has proven that he isn't an ideal option as a starter in the past. Johnson could be released and re-signed to a smaller contract as a starter, but it seems likely that the Titans will draft a running back or add someone in free agency. Most likely in the draft.
Who is the Primary Backup? Anything could happen with a new head coach, but it would make little sense to remove Shonn Greene from the role he impressed in during 2013.
Chances of Bringing in a New Face: They'll likely need a new starter, but the new face could be Chris Johnson. Just a less expensive, presumably less confident version.
Denver Broncos
Is there a Feature Back? Maybe nobody has benefited more from Peyton Manning's arrival in Denver than running back Knowshon Moreno. Moreno has had a very impressive season. He will be viewed as replaceable, but there is a certain comfort level that his presence on the field gives to the offense. Montee Ball appears to be the obvious heir instead of Ronnie Hillman. Ball played well as a rookie. He appears to be very similar to Moreno as he is an all-around player who doesn't excel at one specific thing but also doesn't struggle massively with anything. Trust will be the key for the Broncos if they decide to move on from Moreno.
Who is the Primary Backup? If Moreno stays, then it's Ball. However, I can't see Moreno hanging around in Denver if Ball is the starter. He would get opportunities to contribute more with other teams. Ronnie Hillman and C.J. Anderson will battle it out for the backup spot if Ball is the starter. Anderson would likely be the favorite, but Hillman has enough talent to win the job.
Chances of Bringing in a New Face: Very unlikely.
Kansas City Chiefs
Is there a Feature Back? There is no question here. Jamaal Charles is the most important part of the Chiefs offense, outside of Andy Reid. Charles just turned 27, but he wasn't a work-horse early in his career so there shouldn't be concerns about his durability over the next season or two.
Who is the Primary Backup? In Week 17 and the Wild Card Round, Knile Davis proved that he has all the talent to play in the NFL. His primary concern, ball security, still exists because the sample size is too small to look past his issues coming out of college. Fullback Anthony Sherman should still be involved on offense, but Cyrus Gray should fall further into the background as Davis establishes himself at this level.
Chances of Bringing in a New Face: The Chiefs will only be looking for cheap, developmental guys for the next season or two.
Oakland Raiders
Is there a Feature Back? For a very long time, the Raiders hoped that Darren McFadden would be their feature back. It appears that the wait is finally over and McFadden won't enter 2014 as the primary option. Former Jacksonville Jaguars back Rashad Jennings played very impressive football in 2013, so he is set to enter 2014 as a starter. Sixth round pick from the 2013 draft Latavius Murray could be a surprise starter with a strong offseason, but Jennings will have the first shot.
Who is the Primary Backup? There are a variety of options here. Darren McFadden could re-sign as a free agent to a smaller deal for a smaller role. Latavius Murray could establish himself as a backup. Fullback Marcel Reese is always going to be involved, so he could be given a bigger role. There is a lot of uncertainty in Oakland as to who will be the backup, but it's almost certain that player will be playing behind Jennings as the starter.
Chances of Bringing in a New Face: Moves will be made. It's unclear if the Raiders are 100 percent committed to Jennings moving forward, even though it seems likely he will be the starter entering next season. They could look to draft a back early in the draft or invest in a free agent who isn't McFadden to give them a different option.
San Diego Chargers
Is there a Feature Back? Quietly, Ryan Mathews established himself as one of the best backs in the league in 2013. The Chargers will mix their personnel around because they have so many options, but Mathews remains their best runner.
Who is the Primary Backup? Ronnie Brown is 32 and a free agent, so it's unlikely he returns. He has played well in a limited role again this season, but the clock is ticking on his career. Danny Woodhead is also an impressive backup, but he is also very valuable as a receiver and not a viable starter if Mathews is injured. The Chargers will need to go off their current roster to replace Brown if he isn't brought back.
Chances of Bringing in a New Face: It all centers around Brown. The starter position is set and the complementary third-down back is also there. Fullback LeRon McClain also has the ability to carry the ball in short-yardage situations if need be, but there is no clear replacement for Mathews if he misses a start. If Brown returns, they could get by, but without him they will need another back who can carry the load.