Each week, Footballguys staff members will share the big movers in their respective Dynasty Rankings. Since the contributors will rotate, please check in weekly. The focus of this article will be on the “why” more than the movement itself. Dynasty Rankings are fluid and we hope that sharing the rationale will help you in your quest to create dynasties with all of your teams. The diversity of rankings will result in a variety of opinions weekly.
Quarterback
Parsons
Case Keenum - Ever since his two-week run as a QB1 before Thanksgiving, it has been nothing but trouble for Keenum. Matt Schaub has spelled him in relief on occasion, Gary Kubiak has been ousted as head coach, and Houston is struggling enough to have a legit shot at the number one pick in the NFL draft. Keenum is a long-shot at best to be Houston’s starter in 2014.
Pasquino
Case Keenum / Matt Schaub – For the next three weeks, the Texans will be evaluating Keenum against their long term plans. Matt Schaub will not part of the future offense in Houston, but it remains to be seen if the Texans are targeting someone new in the draft or free agency for 2014.
Nick Foles – Not too much has changed in the past four weeks, but Foles is definitely the man going forward for Philadelphia and Chip Kelly. The Eagles are not going to be changing quarterbacks several times a season, barring injury, for the foreseeable future, and with Foles’ performances over the past month, he has to be considered a Top 10-15 quarterback for the next several years.
Mike Glennon – Tampa Bay started the year with Josh Freeman at quarterback and Mike Williams as the second wide receiver, and both are gone or injured. Mike Glennon took advantage of the “next man up” opportunity to shine, and he has helped Tampa Bay to be one of the better teams in the second half this season. He looks like the feature quarterback and the QB of the future for the Buccaneers.
Cummings
Nick Foles - Foles performance in the snow a week after being named the quarterback for the foreseeable future is enough for me to move him into the top ten. He's been an absolute fantasy stud (QB1 in PPG) since week nine and at this point we don't have any reason to expect less in 2013. If anything, Foles may be better nest year if the Eagles add another weapon to the receiving corps and Zach Ertz continues to develop. Foles should legitimately be a QB1 for as long as he's running Chip Kelly's offense.
Mike Glennon - Glennon's uptick isn't so much about his performance against Buffalo as it is about the Bucs getting their 4th win. At this point I feel like Greg Schiano has probably saved his job for another year which likely means Glennon is the Bucs quarterback in 2014. He's been QB20 since week five and next year he'll get Doug Martin and Mike Williams back. Glennon could very easily develop into a mid-range QB2, and his floor is pretty high for 2014.
Terrelle Pryor - Pryor receiving one series against the Jets tells us he's physically ready, and the organization just feels like Matt McGloin is a better option. Understandably he looked rusty throwing the ball and not nearly as dynamic running the ball. Pryor's only this high because his legs make him an interesting bye week replacement if he ever does get a chance to start again. At this point I'd bet against that happening.
Running Back
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Tampa Bay (Mike James hold, Doug Martin hold, Bobby Rainey up) – The Buccaneers have been a disappointment this season, but the ground game has been a bright spot in a dismal year. Doug Martin struggled then was sidelined with an injury, opening up the door for Mike James, who then got hurt himself. Now Bobby Rainey is the featured tailback and he jumped out to set a record with an 80-yard touchdown run in Week 13. SO what does it all mean? Tampa Bay could be the new three-headed ground game monster, like Carolina, as soon as next season. That would complement Mike Glennon with Vincent Jackson and a returning Mike Williams. The fantasy impact might be spread out too much amongst 2-3 options, but all of these tailbacks have long term value, especially if one or more winds up elsewhere next year or in the years to come.
Minnesota (Toby Gerhart up, Adrian Peterson down) – I love Adrian Peterson, but between age and injuries, the best years may start to be behind him instead of in his future. I still expect him to have 2-3 solid seasons in him, if not more, and my general philosophy is to give older players the benefit of the doubt to put up one more big year before I pull the plug. That often means I run players into the proverbial ground, but so be it. I will take Peterson’s production in my starting lineup for the next several seasons, regardless of his trade value. Frankly, those seeking to trade for Peterson would not offer more than Top 15 value, and I would not take that for Peterson. Gerhart is far more interesting, as he might be on display over the next three games in a virtual free agency audition. Not since Michael Turner has there been a stud with a stud ahead of him on the depth chart, but I like Gerhart’s chances to sign elsewhere in 2014 and become a Top 20 running back for the next few seasons.
Cummings
Stevan Ridley - Ridley got out of the doghouse this week, kind of. He's still splitting carries with LeGarrette Blount, and Blount is outperforming him. A lot of times running backs that have to make a concentrated effort to hold on to the ball become less dynamic rushers. As much as the fumbling and Belichick's reaction hurts Ridley's value, nothing hurts it as much as the emergence of Shane Vereen. Because it's the Patriots we're talking about I could still see a situation where Ridley is once again a RB2, but he has an uphill battle.
Shane Vereen - Vereen is the #1 ranked fantasy running back under 25 in PPR PPG. The Patriots have all kinds of question marks in the receiving corps and a big question mark in the future of Rob Gronkowski. That likely means more target hogging from Vereen, who has been a target monster so far this year. I may still be a little low on Vereen, but I always have trouble trusting running backs under Bill Belichick.
Parsons
Shane Vereen - The rest of the Patriots running backs have a ‘revolving door’ feel to them, while Vereen continues to serve as the moveable chess piece that fits the game plan each week. While Vereen may not be a lock for double-digit carries any game, his involvement in the passing game is a PPR value boon and fits the new NFL (and fantasy running back landscape) to a tee.
Latavius Murray - Darren McFadden looks to be already out of Oakland and Rashad Jennings will be 29 years old this offseason and not new to the injury scene himself. Murray, while an unknown as a redshirted late-round rookie, is one of the cheapest potential week one starters going at the moment.
Knile Davis - He continues to play well with limited opportunities and would be an instant top-15 weekly option if Jamaal Charles were to miss time. Davis was an often overlooked third round NFL draft pick and was one of the best athletes at the position in the 2013 class.
Wide Receiver
Cummings
Keenan Allen - Thirteen games into his NFL career it's clear that Keenan Allen is the #1 receiver in San Diego. While that may not have meant a lot in 2012, it looks huge with the resurgence of Philip River and the Chargers offense. Allen has developed quicker than any of us predicted and it's time to reevaluate his upside. He could legitimately be a WR1 in 2014 and beyond. After all, he's been WR9 since week 5.
Cordarrelle Patterson - We always knew that Patterson had a really high ceiling, but it's always difficult to guess how long it will take a raw athletic receiver like Patterson to "get it". He's shown me enough over the last couple of weeks to show that he's starting to get it, and if Minnesota goes out and gets a franchise quarterback this offseason he could make a huge leap up the rankings. This offseason will be huge for Patterson, and not only because of the quarterback situation. He's made strides during his rookie campaign but he could make a even more in the offseason.
Da'Rick Rogers - Rogers is another of those high upside guys that we weren't sure would even get a shot in his rookie year. He landed in an ideal situation with a great quarterback and a dearth of quality receivers in Indianapolis. In his first game he showed why everyone was so excited by his upside. There are plenty of question marks about the future with Rogers, not the least of which is how well Reggie Wayne comes back from injury. All of those questions are enough to keep me from moving Rogers into WR4/5 range, but he's definitely on the radar.
Parsons
Josh Gordon - The discussion in the dynasty community a week or two ago was that Gordon is a locked-and-loaded top-six receiver. This week Gordon chews up another opponent for a huge fantasy day and gets drafted third overall in a startup draft. A bold selection, but not one that can be argued much based on what Gordon has shown this season. Without the shadow of a possible suspension, Gordon would be in that range for every owner. As it stands the upside, even with mediocre quarterback play, is proving too much for any dynasty owner to move him down much in the rankings.
Da'Rick Rogers - Rogers is the example of patience and betting on talent. He goes from an early round talent before the NFL draft to an undrafted, uncoachable red flag. Rogers cannot make the Bills roster, and then he ends up with the Colts. It takes a Reggie Wayne injury and other cascading moves for Rogers to see the active roster. He does not register a reception last week (but did draw a defensive pass interference penalty on Alterraun Verner). This week, Rogers led Indianapolis with nine targets, logging 107 yards and two touchdowns. Welcome, Da’Rick Rogers.
Cordarrelle Patterson - Patterson was one of the few players largely unaffected by the blizzard in the northeast this Sunday. He was explosive with the ball in his hands and has acceleration matched by only a handful of NFL players. With the game on the line against Baltimore, the Vikings dialed up arguably their best offensive play, a wide receiver screen where Patterson is at his best. All told Patterson had a career-high 141 receiving yards and his third career offensive touchdown, all of which have come in the last five games. Patterson is a rookie receiver surging in the second half of the season and a fast riser to watch in upcoming startup drafts.
Pasquino
Arizona (Larry Fitzgerald down a little, Michael Floyd up) – For those of you who also follow “For The Win”, I have been harping on the underrated Cardinals for weeks as a very solid team. Arizona has a passing game to match that defense, as Carson Palmer is hitting both Fitzgerald and Floyd with regularity. Floyd’s value is solid and on the upswing, and with youth on his side, he could surpass Fitzgerald as Arizona’s top target next season. Fitzgerald will remain a Top 20 player, but he only has so many years left.
Alshon Jeffery – Even Brandon Marshall had Jeffery as a possible stud in the making, and all who had Jeffery as such have been proven right of late. The Bears may be on a backup quarterback, but Jeffery is a WR2 at worst with WR1 upside on a weekly basis for the next several seasons, and he is likely to continue to improve as he gets more and more games and targets under his belt.
Josh Gordon – Gordon has had a record three-week stretch, and considering that his quarterbacks will only get in the Hall of Fame if they buy a ticket at the door, you have to admire Gordon’s skills and production. I like Gordon to have Jeffery-like value going forward with fantasy numbers to match, and if Cleveland builds up their offense then Gordon has an even better long term outlook.
Tight End
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Dennis Pitta - Pitta was largely forgotten as he missed most of the season following a hip injury. He returned to immediately take back his much-needed possession role in the Baltimore offense with six receptions and a red zone touchdown. Pitta is a locked-and-loaded mid-level TE1 for the short-term.
Luke Willson - Willson has been on the field a ton as a second tight end this season. He was a fourth round pick this past draft, but an afterthought in all but the deepest of dynasty leagues. Seattle does not throw the ball much and Zach Miller is still the first option at the position. Willson had the best game of his short NFL career to-date against the 49ers, leading Seattle in receiving yards, 70, and notching his first touchdown. He is averaging more than 15 yards per catch and has arguably the best pre-draft athleticism at the tight end position since Vernon Davis. Zach Miller is no lock to be on the team with his high salary in a year or two and Willson is an ideal dynasty stash in leagues that accommodate a roster with three or four tight ends.
Pasquino
Ladarius Green – Antonio Gates is a veteran stud, but Green is such a good player and playmaker that San Diego cannot keep him off of the field. Two tight end offenses have been the rage for the last several seasons thanks to New England, but Gates will not last forever. Green could be the main starter as soon as 2014 for San Diego and he offers Top 10-15 value with Top 5-7 upside with his unique and outstanding abilities as a receiver.
Cummings
Rob Gronkowski - I know this isn't popular so I want to be thorough. I absolutely think Rob Gronkowski is one of the top two fantasy options whenever he is healthy. I was not one of the people calling him injury prone before the season. However, whether he was injury prone or not has now become a mute point. He now has two injuries (back and knee) that absolutely put him a larger risk for re-injury than if he'd not suffered the injury. Gronkowski has shown that he only needs around 12 games to post top five tight end numbers. That's why I've put him at #5. You can't realistically acquire Gronkowski and expect more than 12 games from him. Also, if you're going to have Gronkowski on your roster, you must plan on investing another roster spot on a high end TE2.
Charles Clay - Clay has flown under the radar for too long. He's posted TE5 numbers this year and is the #1 scoring tight end under the age of 25. There's no reason to believe he won't be the tight end for the foreseeable future in Miami and the Dolphins already have their quarterback of the future. Clay is a low end TE1 with the ability to post top five numbers on any given week.
