Each week, Footballguys staff members will share the big movers in their respective Dynasty Rankings. Since the contributors will rotate, please check in weekly. The focus of this article will be on the “why” more than the movement itself. Dynasty Rankings are fluid and we hope that sharing the rationale will help you in your quest to create dynasties with all of your teams. The diversity of rankings will result in a variety of opinions weekly.
Quarterback
Harstad
Terrelle Pryor - Pryor continues to show promise as a traditional passer, adding to his rushing prowess. While Pryor underwhelmed at Ohio State and was eased into the NFL, many forget that he was one of the top high school football prospects of all time out of Pennsylvania. His upside on a weekly basis is well within the top-12 quarterbacks and considering his age and still-untapped potential, is one of the preferred second quarterbacks on dynasty rosters going forward at a minimum.
Sam Bradford - Bradford was relying on volume and garbage time prior to his ACL injury for his fantasy value. The weapons that were markedly better than his previous NFL seasons were not performing well. Without much rushing production to speak of, Bradford will need to develop into a top-notch passer in 2014 and beyond to be in the QB1 discussion. That is a tall order as St.Louis still does not have above-average pass targets and Bradford's flashes indicate a tempered ceiling if things come together in the coming seasons.
Cummings
Michael Vick - Vick's most recent injury presents the possibility that he may be done as a starter in Philadelphia, and possibly even in the NFL. I think it's likely that he gets at least one more shot, but at the same time when you have a 33 year old running quarterback that's struggling mightily to stay healthy, you can't rule out the idea that he may just be done.
Eli Manning - I expected Eli to make a statement in this game, and we didn't get it. He has all the weapons he could ask for in the passing game, but the Giants can't keep a running back healthy and have a lot of work to do on the offensive line. I'm concerned that this constant barrage of pressure could have a negative long term effect on Manning's play at quarterback.
Jason Campbell - Campbell played a really good game Sunday considering it was his first start of the year and the defense he was facing. He's got very little competition for the starting job for the remainder of the year and there's no guarantee the Browns will get their guy in 2014. Campbell's likely a one-year rental, but he has weapons and likely a lot of garbage time.
Holloway
Matt Schaub – Schaub has been the starting quarterback for seven seasons and has thrown for over 4,000 yards in three of the last four seasons, but at age 32 and contracted salaries increasing from $11 M in 2014 to $13.5 M in 2015, and $15.5 M in 2016, he needed to lead the Texans deep into the playoffs this year to remain the team’s quarterback. Instead, his very first pass of the season was intercepted, he threw pick-six interceptions in four straight games, and the team’s record is 2-5 with little hope of making the playoffs. With several NFL teams lacking a viable quarterback, he might draw interest next year after he is released from the Texans, but his 9 interceptions this year against only 8 TD passes as well as his absolutely devastating plays in critical moments in games could depress his market next season.
Terrelle Pryor – Pryor surprisingly won the starting job for the Oakland Raiders over Matt Flynn and has led the Raiders to a 2-4 record and kept his team competitive in most games. His rise might be influenced greatly by perspective. A closer look finds that he has 5 interceptions against only 5 TD passes. He is completing 64% of his passes for a respectable 7.7 ypa. Pryor’s upside is primarily based on his rushing ability. He burst on the scene with 112 yards on 13 carries in the season opener, but has since only averaged 44 yards per game. His time as the Raider’s starting quarterback could be short-lived if he is unable to decrease his turnovers. His upgrade has been based as much on other quarterbacks falling down the rankings as by his play.
Christian Ponder – Ponder’s third NFL season has again been disappointing. Despite the team adding Greg Jennings and rookie Cordarelle Patterson, Ponder’s completion rate has fallen back to only 59%. In addition, he has 5 interceptions against only 2 passing TDs. His team added Josh Freeman, who was ceremoniously dumped by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Freeman started for the Vikings only one week later. Ponder got another chance this week at home hosting the Packers, (because Freeman was out) but managed only 145 yards passing, even though he completed 14 of 21 attempts. There was one terrible play where he scrambled to the right with no receiver on that side of the field and missed a wide open Greg Jennings running free. Ponder will be making only $1.7M in 2014, the last year of his rookie contract, so he could remain with the team as an inexpensive back-up.
Running Back
Holloway
Eddie Lacy – Even though Lacy missed all of week 3 and had one carry in week 3 before being injured, he has dominated the playing time at running back for the Packers. Since returning from injury, he has averaged 24 carries per game and averaged just over 4.0 ypc. After being rarely involved in the passing game, he has had 11 targets and 9 receptions the last two games. Lacy looks like a good bet to be the three down back for the Packers for the foreseeable future.
Giovani Bernard – Bernard has been the most productive running back for the Bengals thus far in 2013. He has been very effective in space, catching 26 passes on 33 targets for 242 yards and 2 TDs. He has been more efficient running the ball, averaging 3.9 ypc on 72 rushes and scoring 2 TDs. His upside has been limited by BenJarvus Green-Ellis remaining involved in the running game as he has totaled 110 carries, but averaging only 3.2 ypc.
Knowshon Moreno – Moreno has taken full advantage of the opportunities given him in 2013. He has been a steady factor in the running game, averaging 13.5 carries per game and 57 yards, but even more impressive is his consistent targets from Manning. Moreno has had only two games with less than 3 receptions and has caught 29 total passes on 36 targets. He has averaged 93 yards from scrimmage per game and has scored 9 TDs. It is obvious that he and Manning are comfortable with each other in the passing game. Even though it seems that Moreno has been around forever, he is only 26 years old and still has one more affordable season on his rookie contract. He will make only $1.31 Million in 2014 before becoming a free agent in 2015.
Harstad
Eddie Lacy - The Packers finally have a dependable lead running back and are not afraid to feed him. While I was not overly high on Lacy as a prospect, being young and having a defined role carries a lot of weight considering the running back landscape in dynasty circles currently. Consistent goal line opportunities and his situation elevated his value with so many of the productive backs being over 26 years old and nearing the end of the historical prime window of the position’s career arc.
Ray Rice - The bottom is already falling out of Ray Rice’s dynasty value. The Ravens have struggled to run the ball as a whole, but Rice looks like a shell of his former top-five self. Considering that Rice will be nearly 28 years old when next season begins, the window is closing to get anything close to top-15 running back value for the former stud.
Joseph Randle - Randle has done little with his extended opportunity for playing time with DeMarco Murray out of the lineup. Randle has reinforced the scouting report on him coming out of college which included his lack of power. He gets what is blocked without much fanfare, burst, or yards-after-contact. His lone trait that may keep him in the mix on a depth chart is his pass-catching ability. Randle’s limited skill-set pushes him down the long-term rankings.
Cummings
Steven Jackson - I still had some hope that Jackson would come back from his injury and look somewhat like his old self. Instead he came back and looked like Michael Turner circa 2012. If Roddy White can get back to full strength, and this passing offense starts clicking, Jackson might start to look like a RB2 again. That says nothing about 2014 and beyond.
Zac Stacy - If Stacy can do that against the Steelers defense, RB27 might not even be high enough. Stacy's performance was impressive as any rookie running back so far this season. It's hard to figure how he didn't start game one, but he's the clear starter now.
Wide Receiver
Cummings
Marques Colston - Colston's another player I'm afriad has just fallen off the age cliff this year. He looks slower than I've ever seen him, and he never looks open. Even when he's targeted he has no separation. Kenny Stills is coming on strong, Jimmy Graham is the clear number one option, and Colston's role in New Orleans is looking more questionable every week.
Terrance Williams - There's plenty of room for a stud WR2 in Dallas as Miles Austin has shown us in the past. Williams is now the clear WR2 in Dallas and Tony Romo looks to have all the faith in the world in him. Williams should only get better, and he's been pretty great already in 2013.
Ryan Broyles - It looks like it's time to accept that Broyles is just one of those guys that will not be able to stay healthy playing the game of football. Many say that fantasy football success = talent + opportunity and Broyles has both, but he doesn't have the ability to stay healty and that's a huge part of the equation.
Holloway
Vincent Jackson – This season has been a disaster for Tampa Bay as they have lost every game and run off their starting quarterback. Despite the turmoil and the switch to rookie Mike Glennon, Vincent Jackson has been almost unstoppable. He has long been a reliable receiver that was seemingly underutilized. This season, he is leading the NFL in targets and already has 41 catches, 623 receiving yards and 4 TDs. With the recent injury and subsequent IR for Mike Williams, Jackson will continue to receive the majority of his team’s targets.
Justin Blackmon – Blackmon was held in check in week 8 action against the 49ers, but has averaged 12 targets, 7.3 catches and 104 yards since returning from his suspension in week 5. He and Cecil Shorts will continue to see plentiful targets as the Jaguars continue to fall behind early in almost every game and rush the ball for an average of 3.2 ypc. Blackmon is only 23 years old, but has already caught 93 passes in only 20 career games.
DeSean Jackson – Jackson has always had an awesome combination of break-away speed and quickness, but he has been lightly used. In his five previous seasons, 121 is his career high for targets and that came in his rookie year. In addition to that, he has caught only 52.7% of his targets. This year, he is on pace for 148 targets and has averaged 60.8% receptions. He still averages 15.0 ypc and has scored 5 TDs, also on pace for a career high. Jackson’s skills have been much better used in Coach Chip Kelly’s first season.
Harstad
Cordarrelle Patterson - Patterson continues to flash his athleticism and upside on a plain bad team. The limiting factors of quarterback and coaching staff appear to temporary speed bumps to Patterson’s development. While patience is required, Patterson remains a strong buy for owners that missed out on him in the first round of rookie drafts this past offseason.
Kenbrell Thompkins - Rob Gronkowski is back in the mix and Aaron Dobson projects as the more prototypical outside receiver in New England. Thompkins was a feel-good story in the preseason, but the long-term outlook in dynasty has a very tempered ceiling. His name value is waning, making him a strong sell before the trade deadline hits. Thompkins would be a player very dependent on New England not adding a noteworthy receiver through free agency or the draft. Also, 2013 rookies Josh Boyce and Mark Harrison are worth tracking down the line in the Patriots receiver corps.
Tight End
Harstad
Jordan Reed - While Reed does not possess the prototypical tight end size and athleticism, his situation and early production is ideal. The Redskins do not have a rock-solid lead receiver (sorry, Pierre Garcon) and have a capable quarterback in Robert Griffin III III. That combination is typically a good sign for tight ends in fantasy. Fred Davis’ implosion sped up the timetable on Reed’s arrival date as a weekly starter. It is tough to list more than seven or eight tight ends more valuable in dynasty formats than Reed.
Jared Cook - It seems like a year ago that Jared Cook broke out with his huge Week one performance. Since then, Cook has gone from matchup play to fantasy afterthought. Cook has more NFL value has a safety-occupying seam threat than dynasty value that something greater is coming down the line. Considering the young options available as TE2/3 types, Cook tumbles down the rankings as an older option that cannot even be started outside of the deepest of dynasty leagues.
Cummings
Charles Clay - Clay really seems to have developed a nice rapport with Ryan Tannehill and may even be his second favorite target behind Brian Hartline. Mike Wallace is still keeping the middle of the field open and Clay is taking advantage. Clay is a red zone target in both the passing and the running game, which only helps his value.
Holloway
Jordan Cameron – Cameron came into the 2013 season with career totals of 26 catches for 259 yards and 1 TD. He has blown up in his first six games this year, already having 49 receptions for 596 yards and 6 TDs. Cameron is almost keeping pace with Jimmy Graham, while having received passes from three quarterbacks over 8 games. He should remain in the top five tight ends for 2013. Cameron just turned 25 years old and has limited playing experience as he did not play tight end until his senior year at Southern Cal.
Julius Thomas – Thomas was injured in this week’s contest with Washington and only caught 3 passes for 29 yards. On the season, he has caught 39 passes on 52 targets for 451 yards and an amazing 8 TDs. Coming into the 2013 campaign, Thomas had played in only 8 games in two years, catching only one pass. Thomas has obviously gained Peyton Manning’s trust all over the field and particularly in the red zone as he has 13 targets there.
Jordan Reed – Reed, the third round selection out of Florida has made a quick transition to relevance in the NFL. Since returning from an injured quad that forced him to miss half of the week 3 game and sit out week four, he has caught 21 passes for 282 yards and a TD. His targets have steadily risen over those three games. Reed is only 23 years old and has already become Robert Griffin III’s second favorite target. He and Griffin will have many years to improve on their already solid connection.