The plate tectonics of the NFL never stop. In the flurry of activity to mark the open of free agency, dynasty and redraft value changed. If we aren’t constantly updating our best understanding of the NFL, then we aren’t paying attention. Which players gained or lost the most value during free agency?
Winners
Andrew Luck, IND - Hakeem Nicks (especially a Hakeem Nicks motivated to get paid in free agency next year) is a massive upgrade from Darrius Heyward-Bey. While losing Donald Brown will hurt, Ahmad Bradshaw could be a decent band aid, and hey, if the running game falters while it is led by Trent Richardson, maybe offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton won’t wait until the playoffs to unleash Luck this year.
Matthew Stafford, DET - Golden Tate isn’t quite the sharp route-runner to get open on short and intermediate passing play with ease, but he is still an improvement from anything the Lions have put out there at #2 receiver in recent years. Brandon Pettigrew might be overpaid, but his return provides continuity. Stafford will remain the centerpiece of the offense, and an additional viable option should help him reverse the backslide he went into late last year.
Colin Kaepernick, SF - The return of Anquan Boldin means good things for Kaepernick’s owners. He was a strong fantasy QB1 once he had both Crabtree and Boldin for the last five week of the regular season, and that carried over to the playoffs. With Crabtree back to full health and a full offseason to provide progress in Kaepernick’s development as a passer, he should be underrated going into fantasy drafts this summer.
Nick Foles, PHI - Riley Cooper and Jeremy Maclin are back, and Darren Sproles has been added to a team that was already highly efficient in the passing game with Foles at the helm. DeSean Jackson’s current shaky position with the team could roll back a lot of gains Foles’ made as fantasy quarterback in the last month, but for now, he is set up to be a top five option at his position in drafts.
Michael Vick, NYJ - Vick is not done as a fantasy factor quite yet. He is reunited with the offensive coordinator that oversaw his resurgence in Philadelphia in Marty Mornhinweg, and he might get reunited with his #1 receiver from that period - DeSean Jackson - before the dust settles. Assuming he starts (and former TB GM/current ESPN analyst Mark Dominik does), Vick will be risky from week-to-week because of the looming threat of injury, but a QB1 in most games that he starts and finishes.
Matt Schaub, OAK - Of all of the stopgap QB moves, Schaub is the one who is clearly going to start this year, and probably for the entire year. The Raiders restructured his deal, but he can still earn 13-15+ million over the next two years, which is much more than what Matt Cassel, Chad Henne, and Ryan Fitzpatrick got on the open market. Schaub will just be an emergency/injury option at quarterback in deep leagues, but that’s more than we were sure of just a few weeks ago.
Brian Hoyer, CLE, Matt Cassel, MIN, Ryan Fitzpatrick, HOU, Chad Henne, JAX - The rest of the stopgap options are mostly unattractive, and more likely to get submarined by a draft pick than Schaub, but most of them are intriguing to some extent. Hoyer was surprisingly good in both fantasy and real terms before his injury last year, Cassel gets Norv Turner as offensive coordinator, who oversaw Hoyer’s short-lived success, and Fitzpatrick’s newfound boldness as a runner allowed him to put up some good stat lines in relief of Jake Locker last year. With the prevailing opinion about the 2014 draft quarterbacks becoming more negative than positive, we could see a first round with only one or two of these options facing a strong challenge to start this season.
Josh McCown, TB - McCown was impressive in Marc Trestman’s offense last year, now he gets to start in Tampa offensive coordinator Jeff Tedford’s first NFL gig. McCown doesn’t have Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery, but he does have a solid offensive line and good #1 receiver. He won’t be more than a waiver wire option in redraft leagues, but he gained value in leagues that roster every starting quarterback.
Ryan Tannehill, MIA - Tannehill got a real left tackle (Branden Albert) and at least a warm body (Shelley Smith) at guard, so the post-Jeff Ireland Dolphins are actively trying to reduce the 58 sacks they gave up last year. It’s not a big leap in value, but at least they’re trying to keep Tannehill from contracting David Carr syndrome.
Joe Flacco, BAL - Flacco and his massive price tag drew chuckles in fantasy circles after a terrible season, but he may have the last laugh. Dennis Pitta and Jacoby Jones are back, Steve Smith has been added, and Eugene Monroe is going to anchor the new look offensive line under Gary Kubiak. Flacco still won’t approach QB1 numbers, but his situation is vastly improved from the 2013 dumpsterfire of an offense.
Carson Palmer, ARI - Don’t be shocked if Palmer is a QB1 for as long as he stays healthy. The Cardinals added the best offensive tackle they have had in a long, long time in Jared Veldheer, and the signing of Ted Ginn to add another vertical element to the pass offense will only help Palmer’s numbers. #7 overall pick Jonathan Cooper will be another addition to the offense after his early season-ending injury last year. The fact that the running game is led by Andre Ellington, who is not considered a true workhorse, will only help increase the share of the offense that falls on Palmer’s shoulders this year.
Terrelle Pryor, OAK/FA? - With the acquisition of Matt Schaub, Pryor's days in Oakland are basically done. While this is an immediate blow to his value in dynasty leagues, the net effect of ending up in an organization that values his services will preserve some chance of a bright future for the 24-year old. His lethal running ability makes him an attractive fantasy quarterback any time he is on the field, and easier to fit into an offense like Philadelphia, Buffalo, San Francisco, or Seattle if they choose to bring him in.
Losers
Drew Brees, NO - Darren Sproles and Lance Moore were so good on those high percentage passes that ended up being the functional equivalent of running plays. Now, the Saints will probably just turn to Mark Ingram and Khiry Robinson to execute actual running plays in place of those passes with Sproles and Moore gone. Brees’ relatively low attempt numbers in the playoff win over Philadelphia and first half of the loss to Seattle could portend a drop well below 650 attempts for the first time since 2009.
Cam Newton, CAR - The Panthers released Steve Smith, failed to re-sign Brandon LaFell and Ted Ginn, and the best wide receiver they signed in their stead was Jerricho Cotchery. Expect more up and down fantasy lines from Newton this season. The inevitable first-round pick at wide receiver will only marginally improve this anemic passing game in the short term.
Geno Smith, NYJ - Smith actually finished the season on a high note, with three strong fantasy stat lines in the final four games, but a full-blown competition with free agent signing Michael Vick is going to be tough for him to win. His dynasty value is not down as much as some may think, but another full year as a starter would have obviously been better for his development.
Mike Glennon, TB - Glennon was actually very good for a rookie quarterback thrown into the fire, but that wasn’t enough to persuade new head coach Lovie Smith to give him a shot. The Buccaneers spent like a pirate on Tortuga to push to contend this year, and they saw Josh McCown as much more compatible with that approach than Glennon would be. He is still worth stashing in deeper leagues, but Glennon’s development is blocked for at least this year.
