Buy Low
CJ Spiller, RB, BUF (Redraft/Dynasty) - It’s getting bleak for Spiller owners, but that is exactly why it’s time to make an offer for him. He is getting more banged up instead of healthier, his offense is uninspiring, and his owner can’t trust him in their lineup right now. Spiller’s short-term schedule and outlook are harsh, but hopefully he can get better after the Bills bye and provide a kick for your lineup in the fantasy playoffs. Dangle any non-essential piece for him. In dynasty, Spiller is still a transcendental 26-year old talent. The Bills are still a team on the rise and one with good offensive minds running the show. This could be the best window to buy him for a long time.
Michael Vick, QB, PHI (Redraft) - Yes, Vick is a risk to get hurt again, maybe even right away. On the flipside, Vick is a strong QB1 play in any game that he finishes, and the Eagles have a fantasy playoff schedule featuring three of the six worst pass defenses in the NFL. With the porous Giants defense up this week, Vick could back to being the toast of the fantasy world again very quickly.
Darren McFadden, RB, OAK (Redraft) - It didn’t get the fanfare it should have, but McFadden actually came back quickly from an injury before the Raiders’ bye. Terrelle Pryor is making this offense viable, and with a week off to install more looks to leverage off of his mobility and running ability, McFadden could be a surprise success story in a tough year at the running back position. He’s a good moderately-priced buy if your team needs a shot in the arm at running back.
Terrelle Pryor, QB, OAK (Redraft/Dynasty) - Just another reminder that Pryor’s fantasy and NFL value are being collectively underestimated. With the Eagles and Giants up after this week’s tilt against the Steelers, Pryor could at least be a very good bye week play in short bench leagues.
Le’Veon Bell, RB, PIT (Redraft) - I’ll cop to being too harsh of the prospects of Bell after his injury and the Steelers offense after their slow start. With running back getting thinner by the week, Bell looks like a viable RB2, with some upside if the Steelers can build some momentum.
Philip Rivers, QB, SD (Redraft/Dynasty) - I’ll keep using this space to remind you that Rivers has the Giants, Raiders, and Broncos on the schedule during the fantasy playoffs. The Chargers pass offense is still humming. He’s a bonafide QB1 and one that could be on a lot a championship teams this year.
Jake Locker, QB, TEN (Redraft/Dynasty) - Few have noted that Locker has been a fantasy QB1 in his last three games. He has the deep passing ability and running acumen to be a borderline QB1 from here on out, with a terrific playoff schedule that includes Denver and then Jacksonville in week 16. He’s just another example of the depth at quarterback being at an unprecedented level this year.
Alfred Morris, RB, WAS (Redraft) - Roy Helu got three touchdowns because he is on the field with the hurry up offense. Morris is still running like a bull in a china shop and the Washington offense is finally on track. He is going to be a solid RB1 play from here on out.
Robert Griffin III III, QB, WAS (Redraft) - There’s the 2012 RG3 we’ve been waiting for. He is back to being aggressive as a runner in the open field and taking shots downfield after he extends plays with his legs. The Redskins defense will keep him in shootouts most weeks. Griffin might rival Peyton Manning in production for the rest of the season, starting in their head-to-head battle this week.
Andre Brown, RB, NYG, Shane Vereen, RB, NE, Percy Harvin, WR, SEA (Redraft) - I’m not sure why, but we as a community overestimated the negative effect on a player’s value when they are out due to injury. Judging by all outward indications, all three of these players will be ready to help your fantasy team by Thanksgiving if not earlier. We tend to give them all of their value back once they are on the field and discount their value by at least half while they are out. The reality is that they are closer to 80-90% of full value right with the positive news around their recoveries. Leaving them on the waiver wire is a sin at this point. If any of them are on a roster with a losing record in need of immediate lineup help, go fishing.
Kenny Stills, WR, NO (Redraft/Dynasty) - Jimmy Graham might be hurt. Lance Moore is hurt. Marques Colston isn’t getting it done. Darren Sproles can’t do everything by himself. Stills made the biggest play of the week 7 loss to the Patriots and the team should be focusing on getting him more involved out of the bye. He’s an easy waiver wire add in a lot of leagues right now.
Marvin Jones, WR, CIN (Redraft/Dynasty) - Here’s another guy that I’ll keep listing here until I think he is getting the due he deserves. Jones is making plays in the red zone and on key downs. He is displayed great ball skills and speed, and giving the Bengals their most dangerous complementary threat to AJ Green. Hold him if only to have the possible chance play him in week 16 against the Eagles, who give up the farm to #2 receivers.
Joseph Fauria, TE, DET (Redraft/Dynasty) - Tony Scheffler was cut because of the Lions belief in their undrafted rookie, not because of injury. Fauria is getting red zone targets every week, and now the Lions are targeting him on downfield routes between the 20s. Fauria is a pure pass-catching talent in a great pass offense. He could be in the TE1 mix in the next year or two, if not this year.
Everyone on the Green Bay Packers, including the D/ST (Redraft) - Here’s the next five games for the Packers: at Minnesota, Chicago (with Josh McCown), Philadelphia, at NY Giants, Minnesota. That’s practically a fantasy football all-you-can-eat buffet.
Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, ATL (Redraft) - There’s going to be drop in Rodgers’ value when Steven Jackson (maybe this week), but it could be an overreaction in PPR leagues. Rodgers has proven to be an excellent substitute for futile running plays as a receiver in the screen game, and he scored one of his touchdowns last week split out in the slot after an ankle-breaking move to get open.
Sell High
Adrian Peterson, RB, MIN (Redraft) - These buildings might be too tall to leap in a single bound. Paul Charchian (Leaguesafe) was on the couch this week, and he said that there are whispers about an undisclosed injury for “all day”. Save yourself anxiety and get off of your positions on Peterson this week. Try to make a lateral move to another elite RB1, and sweeten your side if you have to.
Justin Blackmon, WR, JAX, Cecil Shorts, WR, JAX (Redraft) - The good news is that Chad Henne is remaining the quarterback even though Blaine Gabbert is healthy enough to play. Still, both of these guys are banged up, and I hate relying on garbage time for points, even if it has been steady in recent years for this duo. Blackmon in particular could be an easy swap for a safer WR2. Most of his production is based on one busted coverage and a game without Shorts in the lineup.
Andrew Luck, QB, IND (Redraft) - There’s no way to spin the injury to Reggie Wayne as a good thing for Luck’s fantasy stock. This is a balanced team that doesn’t have to rely on Luck to account for four touchdowns to win most of the time. He’s one of the least desirable QB1’s to have leading your team into the fantasy playoffs with Kansas City looming in week 16.
Mike James, RB, TB (Redraft) - How is Mike James going to do any better than Doug Martin did? The team is in decline, Martin’s absence is not necessarily for the entire season, and James is a somewhat pedestrian talent. James is not the answer if you are ailing at running back.
Zac Stacy, RB, STL (Redraft) - I’ve been impressed with Stacy, and I liked him coming out of this year’s draft. He’s still in a major uphill battle to get points with Kellen Clemens at quarterback for the rest of the year. Find the team that just lost Doug Martin (or any other RB-needy squad) and try to get what you can for Stacy.
Harry Douglas, WR, ATL (Redraft) - Douglas exploited two blown coverages for big plays to fuel his big day against the Buccaneers. Could that continue to happen? Sure, but I am not betting on it. Cashing in Douglas right now is the best move in redraft leagues right now.
