Cracking FanDuel - Week 6

Photo: Imagn Images

Footballguys has partnered with FanDuel and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests. This article will usually appear on Saturdays and not include the early Thursday games. This first release is coming early though as I will be in Vegas competing in the FFPC contests.

My approach to FanDuel's Daily Games

In salary cap games where other companies are determining prices, I like to see where their thoughts differ substantially from my projections. My value chart below matches up my projections against FanDuel's prices:

Some explanation of my Excel manipulation is in order:

• Everything is sorted by position
• I have converted my projections to FanDuel Fantasy Points. These figures appear in the FP column.
• The Price column reflects FanDuel's Week 6 Price
• The Price per FP column reflects the cost per projected fantasy point (the lower the value the better).
• I have highlighted player's names (in green) that should be strong considerations for your lineups. They generally reflect the most bang for the buck at their respective positions. Players in yellow also are worth consideration when building your roster.

General Thoughts

Situations that stand out to me this week.

• The Denver/Jacksonville matchup is among the biggest mismatches in the history of football. Vegas has the point spread at a whopping 26.5 points. Vegas under/over suggests Denver should score 39.75 points. Although that seems to suggest a lot of great fantasy play, I am not so certain that will be the case. I fully expect the starters to play a lot in the first half, but expect a huge dose of running backs once the Broncos get a big lead. My gut tells me the two biggest plays from this game are the Denver Defense and PK Matt Prater. RB Knowshon Moreno could also be in for a big day, but he will likely yield carries to Montee Ball in the 4th quarter. Despite the expectations on Denver, I am more intrigues in the "junk" plays of WRs Justin Blackmon and Cecil Shorts. I say junk plays as I see these two receivers getting the bulk of their yards after the game is well in hand. I like Blackmon more based on health, but both could do well.
• Frank Gore (153 rushing yards and 1 TD) and DeMarco Murray (175 rush yards, 28 receiving yards, 1 TD) all shredded the St. Louis rush defense lately. Arian Foster is salivating at the opportunity this weekend.
• Pittsburgh's usually mighty defense has yielded 6 rushing and 1 receiving TDs to running backs in 4 games. If that trend continues, NYJs Bilal Powell could be in for a huge week.
• I am expecting a lot of offense in the Washington/Dallas game. Both defenses have struggled stopping anyone. Look to load up your rosters with players from these teams

Sample $60K Roster - Projected Points = 138.6

• QB Alex Smith, KC - $6,500
• RB Jamaal Charles, KC - $9,400
• RB Arian Foster, Hou - $8,600
• TE Jason Witten, Dal - $7,000
• WR Justin Blackmon, Jac - $6,200
• WR T.Y. Hilton, Ind - $6,000
• WR Keenan Allen, SD - $4,500
• TD Denver Broncos - $5,900
• PK Matt Prater, Den - $5,800

Sample $55K Roster - Projected Points = 129.0

• QB Alex Smith, KC - $6,500
• RB Arian Foster, Hou - $8,600
• RB DeMarco Murray - $7,800
• TE Garrett Graham, Hou - $5,100
• WR Justin Blackmon, Jac - $6,200
• WR Vincent Brown, SD - $4,500
• WR Keenan Allen, SD - $4,500
• TD Denver Broncos - $5,900
• PK Matt Prater, Den - $5,800