Week two was a bit of a letdown for Bargain Buys as we only had a 50% success rate, leaving our yearly success rate at 55%. That being said, if you started DeSean Jackson (WR3) or Darren McFadden (RB8) you probably felt pretty good about our selections. As we head into week three, a lot of this becomes about what we've seen so far and what we think it means. As always, our Best bang for your Buck is based on David Dodds projections vs. FanDuel cost while our Bargain Buys will dig just a little deeper to try to find someone you can slide into your lineup for just the right dollar amount.
Quarterback
- Highest Priced Player: Peyton Manning- $9,800
- Average Priced Player: Tony Romo and Andy Dalton- $7,700
Best Bang for your Buck: Sam Bradford ($7,300) vs. Dallas. Bradford has been the 7th best quarterback in fantasy football through two weeks and gets to face a suspect and banged up Cowboys secondary. There's little chance that the Rams will be able to establish the run game against the Cowboys which means a bunch of attempts for Bradford.
Bargain Buy: Ryan Tannehill ($6,100) vs. Atlanta. Tannehill was a good buy last week and he's even a better buy in week three. The Falcons present the perfect combination of a high octane offense and a questionable defense. Expect the Falcons to take Mike Wallace away while Tannehill thrives with short tosses to Brian Hartline and Charles Clay. His price should creep up over the coming weeks because it doesn't currently accurately represent his fantasy value.
Running Back
- Highest Priced Player: Adrian Peterson - $9,500
- Average Priced Player: DeMarco Murray- $7,300
Best Bang for your Buck: Darren Sproles ($7,200) vs. Arizona. David Dodds has Sproles as his 6th best running back in week three and if you don't count the Thursday night game (and we don't) he's number five. Any league that gives even 1/2 a point for reception drives Sproles value way up. He's essentially a slot receiver that will get 5-8 carries as well. Arizona has a decent defense but they'll focus too much of their efforts on Jimmy Graham and Marques Colston to be able to stop Sproles too.
Bargain Buy: Bernard Pierce ($5,900) vs. Houston. This is one you may want to wait until Sunday morning for, but I have serious doubts about Ray Rice's availability this weekend. Even if Rice does play it's likely that we see more Pierce than Rice. The Texans defense is stout, but they've already given up decent games to Ryan Mathews and Chris Johnson. Don't be surprised if Pierce continues that trend.
Wide Receiver
- Highest Priced Player: Calvin Johnson - $9,000
- Average Priced Player: Andre Johnson, Victor Cruz, and Wes Welker- $7,300
Best Bang for your Buck: Julian Edelman ($6,700) vs. Tampa Bay. Tom Brady has to throw the ball to someone, and right now Edelman is the only reliable target he has. The Buccaneers aren't going to camp Revis on Edelman, which means he should have plenty of openings. It feels like Brady has something to prove in this one, and Tampa Bay has their backs against the wall.
Bargain Buy: Lance Moore ($5,600) vs. Arizona. Moore can kill your fantasy team occasionally but this feels like the kind of game where he breaks out for 100 yards and a score and we all feel silly for not starting him. At $5,600 you can afford to take a flyer, and like I said about Sproles above, the Cardinals don't have enough playmakers to shut down all of the Drew Brees' options.
Tight End
- Highest Priced Player: Jimmy Graham - $8,000
- Average Priced Player: Owen Daniels, Kyle Rudolph, and Antonio Gates- $5,800
Best Bang for your Buck: Brandon Myers ($4,900) vs. Carolina. The Panthers have a depleted secondary and their safeties this week will be exceptionally weak. Myers was disappointing in week two but we expect him to bounce back in week three. I'm not sure either of these teams can stop the other which should lead to a shootout. You should almost always take a $4,900 tight end in a shootout.
Bargain Buy: Charles Clay ($4,700) vs. Atlanta. Clay looked very impressive last week and like I said above, I expect the Falcons to focus on taking Mike Wallace out of the equation. Unfortunately for them, they can't take everyone out of the equation and that means Clay should have room to operate. He's also getting snaps at FB in short yardage which could result in an unexpected rushing touchdown.
Defense
Jets vs. Buffalo- This Jets defense has been pretty good so far and I love Rex Ryan with 10 days to prepare for a rookie quarterback. EJ Manuel was impressive in week two against the Panthers, but he's still going to have a few stinkers in his rookie campaign. Look for the Jets to get after Manuel early and often while focusing their linebackers on shutting down C.J. Spiller.
Kicker
Adam Vinatieri vs. San Francisco. I don't expect the Colts to score a lot of points against the 49ers after they were embarrassed in week two. That being said, I do think this offense can get into scoring position and the Colts will be happy to take any points they can get. This look like a game where the 49ers emotionally jump out to an early lead and then conservatively hold on for the victory as the Colts try to kick their way back into it.
Contact Heath at cummings@footballguys.com or on Twitter @heathcummingssr
