The statistics used in this column are those acquired from the Reception Perception methodology for evaluating wide receivers. To see full results of the project’s first full offseason, check out the tables at Backyard Banter. Additionally, use the #ReceptionPerception tag on Twitter to follow all the analysis from the series. Every week at Footballguys I'll profile one receiver whose recent numbers stand out as interesting. If you have a suggestion for the column, file it on Twitter.
Overall, Reception Perception had a good kickoff to the 2015 season. The top sleeper, Steve Johnson, had an 82-yard day capped with a touchdown. John Brown rewarded my top of the line enthusiasm with a touchdown catch predicated almost completely on Carson Palmer’s trust in him. Donte Moncrief looked quite good, and left rookie Phillip Dorsett far in the rearview mirror in terms of snaps played. The methodology was not all too kind to Davante Adams, and Aaron Rodgers defaulted to the familiar James Jones without hesitation over his new starting weapon. Brandin Cooks couldn’t do a thing to get off the far bigger Patrick Peterson’s tight press coverage.
However, there was one glaring, clear slack from Week 1; Allen Robinson’s dreadful one catch for 27 yards performance. No receiver outside of obvious star-caliber players received a Reception Perception report quite as glowing as Allen Robinson’s from late April.
All the evidence from the film of his rookie year indicated he was at an advanced stage of his route running given his age and experience. All the numbers told a story of a target hog waiting to happen in 2015. Offseason narratives and preseason optimism even laid hope for the case that his quarterback might actually be able to hold up his end of the bargain.
After as disappointing a Week 1 unveiling as could possibly be imagined we’re forced to stare off into the distance rub our eyes and wonder, “what happened?” Overreacting to Week 1 is one of the more dangerous things you can do as a football observer. However, there’s equal playing with fire in ignoring what could be just the beginning of a new reality.
At the very least, Week 1 demands we get a heat check on where we stand with Allen Robinson. Putting him through the same Reception Perception methodology that painted the picture of his breakout is very revealing.
Alignment Data
Everything drawn up from Allen Robinson’s profile paints him as a true X-receiver. He’s big, he has a clean release move and possess the athletic attributes to make good on his frame. In Week 1, the Jaguars still played him as such.
Robinson saw the vast majority of his snaps outside, mostly on the left side of the field. He also found himself aligned on the line of scrimmage, indicative of the X, due to his status as the number-one receiver in Jacksonville. The team did assign him with some slot snaps, at just around 12 percent. Given the proficiency demonstrated on film from 2014 for getting open underneath, this made complete sense.
The alignment data for Robinson’s 60 Week 1 snaps makes complete sense given what we gleaned from his rookie season. However, that is where things stop going to plan.
Target Data
Of all the data collected from Week 1, this was the most surprising. Allen Robinson was on a 130 target pace before he went down with an injury last season. Blake Bortles threw to him 24 times on third down, dwarfing the number for the next receiver in line. Yet, Robinson ran 37 routes in Week 1 and came away with only six targets—that was less than he received at any point when he and Bortles were both on the field as rookies in 2014.
Robinson did come off the field for a stretch after his lone catch with an injury, but still played 60 of 67 possible team snaps. It’s mystifying that he was targeted so infrequently based on the chemistry he shared with Bortles on film last year. One possible explanation lies with an early game drop. As the Jaguars were driving in the first quarter, Robinson ran a pristine deep comeback route that left emerging Panthers cornerback Josh Norman (more on him later) in the dust. Bortles threw it right on the money, but Robinson just let it clank off his hands. Robinson didn’t have a worrisome drop rate as a rookie, but showed some issues with them in the preseason. They seemed to have carried over into the regular season.
Drops can be a fluctuating proposition, and are largely a misrepresentation of a wide receiver’s overall skill level. If a player has a long history of drops, they can be a nagging problem and carry over year-to-year. Rarely do you see a wide receiver that has never displayed drop issues, like Robinson, suddenly develop them and be unable to shake it. This is something we’ll have to watch closely. If Robinson continues to drop passes, there’s every chance the trust Blake Bortles once had for him could evaporate. That was the reality of the situation on Sunday.
One thing we’ve seen from Bortles in his short career, at least during the regular season, is his quickness to hit the panic button. When Carolina pressured him in this game, he dropped his eyes and abandoned the play. He preferred dumping the ball off to Rashad Greene Sr, their fifth-round slot receiver, or trying to bail on the pocket as opposed to letting things settle. Granted, the Panthers defensive line was a mismatch for the Jacksonville protection unit, but Bortles panicked too often on Sunday, following the trends of his rookie year.
When Bortles was in trouble last season, the beneficiary was Allen Robinson. He piled up targets running nuanced short and intermediate routes for a quarterback that needed an outlet. On Sunday, something was different.
Success Rate Versus Coverage Scores and Route Analysis
What pulled my attention in the direction of Allen Robinson so forcefully was his route running as a rookie. His release moves were pristine; he gained easy separation on intermediate patterns and didn’t lack for diversity in his assignments. In Week 1, the Jaguars rolled out a utilization plan for Robinson that was, for lack of a better word, puzzling:
Even watching the game on Sunday it was hard not to notice that you didn’t see much of Robinson in your screen. His Reception Perception from 2014 featured him running a variety of routes that carried him to the middle of the field. I was completely stunned after charting his Week 1 game this year just how often the team sent him on vertical routes, with 37.8 percent of his 37 routes being of that variety. Last year, Robinson was the possession receiver and the chain mover, while Allen Hurns handled the deep routes. Did Jacksonville forget which Allen was which over the offseason? It’s likely just a factor of game script; as the Jaguars built a two-minute drive at the end of the half and played fruitless catch up late in the fourth.
The nine-route frequency dwarfs the rest of his route percentages. Robinson scored an 89.5 percent SRVC on dig routes last season, which was stunning for a rookie. And yet he didn’t run a single on in Week 1. He ran two slants all game, barely hit the curls and was never sent into the flat. The vast majority of his routes were deep patterns or out-breaking ones, which diminishes the value he could bring to this offense. The same value he brought to it during the first 10 weeks of last season.
It’s almost impossible to expect Allen Robinson to post a quality stat line with a route tree like this. Remember that 2014 Reception Perception sample identified separation in the deep game as his one weakness. Agility, burst and quickness for his size are what set him apart, not speed for his size. This is what helped him earn such great SRVC scores one short and intermediate routes as a rookie. In Week 1, he didn’t perform nearly as well:
(SRVC denotes success rate versus coverage for each route. PTS indicates how many PPR fantasy points a receiver earned on each particular route)
To give a hat tip to the “players don’t change” theory, Robinson’s nine route SRVC score was almost right in line from the one taken from his 2014 sample. For all the improvement Robinson was said to have made in the offseason it did not carry over into his double moves. They are still too exaggerated and the Panthers cornerbacks did not fall for them. At this point, he’s still not a deep threat, which makes his high frequency of nine routes all the more perplexing.
Let’s not beat around the bush though; this whole chart is not encouraging enough to just wave off his stat line. Robinson normally got blotted out when he ran a post, his next highest percentage figure. He seemed to lack the determination and burst he carried as a rookie at the break point of those routes. Perhaps that early injury played a part, but that is beginning to stack up as a disturbing trend too. Considering he ended his rookie year on IR and also left a preseason game for stretches with a malady, the injury occurrences are piling up.
Of course, there’s some optimism in the rest of the chart. Even if the scores are not eye-popping, he still got open more often than not on those out-breaking routes. Robinson’s two fades in the end zone were well executed (falling under the “other” route), even if his quarterback’s attempt to hit him on one was laughably futile. His curl route SRVC was one of the few marks that qualified as an above average score. Robinson still showed the foot frequency and discipline to snap back to the ball and present his quarterback with an open target. All hope is not lost for his progression into one of the better big receiver route runners in the NFL outlined in his 2014 Reception Perception.
This is not an excuse-making piece, as we can clearly see Allen Robinson under-delivered on expectations in Week 1. His SRVC scores make that plain to see:
Red indicates the figure is below the NFL average, Green is above and Yellow is within one percentage point.
Robison scored below the seasonal NFL average charted from the 2014 samples. The Panthers cornerbacks were able to blot him out in man coverage and he got lost in their tight zones, as well. Again, it’s hard to expect these scores to be much better considering how often he ran deep routes, but they still are not good.
However, Robinson did face some stiff competition. While the narrative is that Josh Norman, who did shadow a bit last season, shut down Robinson but the two only met on just over half of his qualifying pass routes. In reality, all of the Panthers corners had a hand in the effort. Charles Tillman did not look like he’s lost any step at all, and Bené Benwikere is one of the best young slot corners no one knows about. This trio played out of their minds, and was nearly impossible to beat combined with the pressure put on Bortles by the front seven. They look like a force to be reckoned with throughout the season. After watching the tape, I’m more inclined to talk about their impressive feats than Robinson’s disappointment.
One thing that still stood out as a strength of Robinson’s that reminded of 2014 was his score against press coverage. He still knows how to set up a release, and possesses the fluidity to dodge arms and the fight to swat them away. While he didn’t always separate from man coverage in this one, if he’s running more of the routes he excels on in the future, we know he can still get off the line cleanly.
Going forward
After hyping Allen Robinson more than any other receiver this offseason Week 1 was a disappointment for Reception Perception. However, it’s just one week. I am far from ready to pull the plug on one of my favorite young players’ prospects after just one game, but I’ll admit to being more concerned than I was just less than a week ago. The worst thing you can do with new data is to ignore it.
While there were lumps in Week 1, it was not an abject disaster and combined with the overwhelming positive tape from 2014, I’m confident better days are ahead. But just how soon are they from arriving?
In chatting with my friend Eric Stoner, he believes the sunshine could peak from behind the mountain when Julius Thomas returns from his injury. The Jaguars signed the former Bronco because they wanted to improve their middle of the field passing game, and add another body for defenses to worry about. Without Thomas, that plan was shut down, as Bortles did not target a single tight end on Sunday. With no presence in the middle of the field, the Panthers corners were able to just post up on the outside receivers. Without Thomas, Stoner indicated the Jaguars are easy to defend if the defense just sits in cover two or two-man and waits for Bortles to mess up. Due to his inability to read zones, it’s a sound plan. It worked perfectly for Carolina on Sunday.
When Thomas gets back, defenses will have to drift attention to him, meaning more off coverage for Robinson. If they’re intending to use him as more of a downfield weapon, this is absolutely paramount. More off coverage will allow him to “build up speed and set up his double moves” as Stoner put it. Of course, Thomas might be out for another three weeks, at best, and until then Robinson might be nothing more than a bench stash in fantasy leagues. Of course, I think it’s a stash worth holding.
Even without the off coverage and Thomas, we cannot completely erase what we know about Robinson’s talent. His 2014 Reception Perception was too good for us to completely write off him having an excellent game as soon as next week. If the expected passing volume returns, it will certainly be more likely than not. We should be encouraged to see Robinson potentially drawing matchups In Week 2 with diminutive Dolphins corner, Brice McCain, who does not compare to any of the Panthers’ trio. In general, you can count maybe two or three defenses we can realistically expect to put up the fight Carolina gave Jacksonville. Week 1 was just one piece of the puzzle. Any time now we could see the piece laid that makes us forget the negative feelings we all have after this opening day disaster.
For fantasy leagues, I won’t even entertain dropping Robinson until after Week 4 at the earliest. And he’d need to have all ugly games leading up to it. Until then, I’m fine with benching him for another viable alternative and treating him as a “wait and see” stash. I have to believe the six targets he saw in Week 1 will be the low mark of this season. His route assignments should also begin to normalize back to what we were familiar with from last season.
Week 1 was disturbing enough to raise serious red flags on Allen Robinson’s 2015 outlook. However, you can certainly tell a realistic story in where Robinson regains trust early, and we clearly look back on this game as the lowest point of the season. I’m far from ready to pull the plug, but just the fact we’re mentioning it is proof enough we are reacting properly to Week 1’s data.