Setting the Stage
C.J. Spiller was a track and football star in high school in Lake Butler, Florida. He was Florida 2A State Champion in both the 100 and 200-meters and ran for over 5,500 yards averaging just over 10 yards per carry. He was selected as a Parade High School All-American and Rivals.com ranked him as the #1 football player in Florida and the #1 all-purpose running back in the country. He was highly recruited nationally and signed with Clemson. He was outstanding in college, playing four years even after being projected as a first round NFL pick after his junior season. He totaled 4,480 yards rushing, 120 receptions for 1,362 yards, scored 51 TDs and also excelled at both punt and kick returns. He earned unanimous All-American as a senior.
At the NFL Combine, he ran a 4.37 40-yard dash and his already high draft stock peaked. He was selected as the first running back at #9 overall by the Buffalo Bills. Although Spiller has not lived up to expectations, he has been the second most productive running back in his class, behind Ryan Mathews, who was taken 12th by the Chargers.
Spiller had a disappointing rookie campaign as he lost three fumbles and frequently ran tentatively. He occasionally displayed a glimpse of what many expected, showing burst and almost unmatched speed, but these plays were few and far between. Spiller did total 1,179 return yards and one return TD, but had only 98 touches for 440 yards from scrimmage.
His second and third seasons under Chan Gailey were the most productive of his NFL career to date as he averaged 5.7 ypc rushing, caught 82 passes and scored 12 TDs without missing any games. He remained a large part of the Bill’s 2013 offensive game plan as Doug Marrone took over the head coaching duties in Buffalo, but was far less effective, only averaging 4.6 ypc and catching 34 passes in 15 games in 2013. Last year, he was used less early on and then suffered a broken collarbone in week 7. This injury resulted in Spiller missing 7 games and he had career lows in total yards from scrimmage, TDs and receptions.
His career statistics:
| Year | Games | Rushes | Yds | ypc | TDs | Targets | Catches | % Rec | Yds | TDs |
| 2010 | 14 | 74 | 283 | 3.8 | 0 | 32 | 24 | 75.0% | 157 | 1 |
| 2011 | 16 | 107 | 561 | 5.2 | 4 | 54 | 39 | 72.2% | 269 | 2 |
| 2012 | 16 | 207 | 1,244 | 6.0 | 6 | 57 | 43 | 75.4% | 459 | 2 |
| 2013 | 15 | 201 | 927 | 4.6 | 2 | 41 | 34 | 82.9% | 197 | 0 |
| 2014 | 9 | 77 | 299 | 3.9 | 0 | 22 | 19 | 86.4% | 125 | 1 |
| Totals | 70 | 666 | 3,314 | 5.0 | 12 | 206 | 159 | 77.2% | 1,207 | 6 |
The table below provides a comparison of the number of his rushing carries in each season for certain distances per rush. The statistics between his last two seasons with Gailey (11 and 12) and his two seasons with Marrone (13 and 14) strikingly reveal his decreased effectiveness during the Marrone years. For his two seasons under Marrone, Spiller ran for two yards or less on over 53% of his rushing attempts.
| Year | Rushes | Gain < 3 | < 3 % | Gain 3 to 9 | 3 to 9 % | Gain >10 | > 10 % |
| 2011 | 107 | 44 | 41.1% | 49 | 45.8% | 14 | 13.1% |
| 2012 | 207 | 72 | 34.8% | 103 | 49.8% | 32 | 15.5% |
| 2013 | 201 | 104 | 51.7% | 75 | 37.3% | 22 | 10.9% |
| 2014 | 77 | 45 | 58.4% | 28 | 36.4% | 4 | 5.2% |
The above numbers could be viewed with two entirely different perspectives. One potential view is that Spiller’s usage over the last two seasons was not a match for his abilities and he was not given the right opportunities to set him up for success. The other conclusion could be that Spiller has lost something, whether confidence or ability or perhaps both and has already peaked as a running back in the NFL.
Looking Forward to 2015
During the past two off-seasons, the Saints’ have talked a lot about increasing their focus on the running game, but this year it seems that their off-season moves have matched up with their talk. Prior to the draft, they traded Jimmy Graham and a 4th round pick to the Seahawks for their starting center Max Unger and 1st round pick. Mark Ingram was re-signed to a four-year $16 Million contract, with a guarantee of $7.6 Million. Spiller later signed a similar four-year $16 Million contract, but his guaranteed amount was $9.0 Million. Then, the Saints drafted OT Andrus Peat with the 13th overall pick, the second of two significant investments in the offensive line. They also traded Kenny Stills for defensive help, acquiring Dannell Ellerbe and a 3rd round pick and cut Pierre Thomas, who had been with the team for the past eight seasons.
The losses of Graham, Stills, Thomas and Cadet equate to the loss of 231 receptions, 2,494 yards and 15 TDs of Brees’ 2014 production. These numbers represent a little over half of his completions and passing yardage and almost half of the passing TDs. These player losses add to the potential for an increased emphasis on the running game.
The Saints under Coach Payton have prominently featured their running backs in the passing game. Khiry Robinson and Mark Ingram are the only running backs from 2014 still on the roster and those two have a total of 50 catches between them in the past three seasons. Granted that Ingram did have 29 of those receptions last year, but Spiller is obviously the most efficient receiving running back in 2015.
Spiller’s game is based on his speed and shiftiness, both of which have been a focus of Payton’s offensive schemes in the past. Additionally, he should be more effective on the Saints’ home turf inside the Superdome. Incidentally, the Saints have four road games this season in indoor stadiums, although the opener in Arizona is on indoor grass. Spiller’s speed should benefit greatly playing 11 of his 16 games on turf.
Positives
- Coach Sean Payton has outstanding success using running backs as receivers and that is one of Spiller’s strengths
- Spiller has had two seasons with over 50 catches and should easily top that in 2015
- Spiller has a career 5.0 ypc rushing average, compared to Ingram’s 4.2, so logic indicates he will also get running opportunities
- Eleven games on turf behind an improved Saints offensive line
Negatives
- Mark Ingram probably will get first shot as the Saints’ primary rusher, including goal line chances and is more familiar with the offensive system
- Spiller is coming off his worst statistical season
- Khiry Robinson has been effective for the Saints and averaged 4.8 ypc last season
Projections
| Name | Games | Rushes | Yds | TDs | Catches | Yds | TDs |
| David Dodds | 14 | 95 | 399 | 4 | 61 | 458 | 3 |
| Bob Henry | 16 | 95 | 430 | 3 | 73 | 600 | 3 |
| Jason WOod | 16 | 125 | 600 | 4 | 48 | 450 | 2 |
| Maurile Tremblay | 16 | 74 | 450 | 2 | 90 | 681 | 3 |
| Stephen Holloway | 16 | 135 | 675 | 4 | 70 | 550 | 2 |
Final Thoughts
The Saints running backs have averaged 139 receptions per year over the past three seasons and the players with 352 of those 418 receptions (P. Thomas, Darren Sproles and Travaris Cadet) are no longer with the team. The hold-over running backs, Ingram (70 targets, 53 career receptions and 5.4 ypc) and Khiry Robison (11 targets, 8 career receptions and 7.9 ypc) have both played their entire NFL careers with Brees and yet their production in the passing game have been adequate at best. Spiller’s skill set matches very well with what the Saints need and what Coach Sean Payton has a strong history of using. Even if Spiller does not get significant opportunity running the ball, he can be productive and his career average 5.0 ypc is the best on the team.
Other Viewpoints
Kevin Patra, Around the League Writer on NFL.com
With the Saints' roster re-tooling shifting focus from the aerial attack to the ground game, newly added running back C.J. Spiller said he would have been a "fool" not to consider hooking up with Sean Payton.
"I've been following this offense very closely," Spiller told reporters after inking a four-year, $18 million contract, per the team's official website. "We tried to do some similar stuff at Buffalo early on in my career. The way that they use their running backs in general is very intriguing. If you were in my position, you would be a fool not to visit or at least see how they could utilize your skill set, especially my type of skill set."
Mike Triplett, ESPN Staff Writer
"I wouldn't say that we went into free agency thinking that we were going to go after another running back, and certainly a player of his caliber," Loomis told reporters during the NFL owners meetings in Phoenix. "But just at some point during the course of free agency, it started to make some sense for us in terms of the makeup of our team and the cost to acquire."
Adding a dynamic playmaker like Spiller may have become an even higher priority for the Saints after they traded tight end Jimmy Graham to the Seattle Seahawks on the opening day of free agency.
When discussing the Graham trade with Pro Football Talk on Monday, Saints head coach Sean Payton singled out Spiller as someone who could help fill the void.
"Now it's our job as coaches to find additional targets. And we feel like we got one in C.J. Spiller, who's a completely different position but nonetheless a playmaker when the ball's in his hands," Payton said.
Payton put Spiller in the class of runner/receiver mismatches like Reggie Bush and Darren Sproles, who had previously thrived with the Saints in Payton's versatile offense.
Jason Wood of Footballguys.com player comments
Spiller’s fall from grace in Buffalo was perplexing, but I still believe in his talent. If he’s healthy in camp, I expect he’ll have a few eye-popping plays in the preseason and his ADP will skyrocket.