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As a long time IDP dynasty league player, I understand the importance of always looking ahead and trying to be prepared for the future. Trade deadlines may be gone in most leagues, but the offseason will be here soon, and now is the time to start planning ahead.
For the next few weeks, I am going to be looking at the Buy Low/Sell High IDPs who we should be targeting during the early part of the offseason. Of course, things will change once free agency and the draft get here, but for now, it's time to peer into the future as best we can and see if there will be some deals to be made once your league's offseason begins. Beginning this week, I am going to devote one week each to DL, LB, DB, and rookies. Pay particular attention to their team's circumstances and any reports about the particular player for the rest of the season and more importantly, the early part of the offseason.
This week's article will focus on buying low on rookies.
Buy Low
DL Damontre Moore, New York Giants: At one point prior to the 2013 NFL draft, Moore was considered a possible top-ten selection. He has 12.5 sacks as a junior and that was very impressive given that he played against top-notch competition in the SEC. But Moore wound up sliding all the way to the third round and was scooped up by the Giants. With Jason Pierre-Paul coming off an injury-riddled season and the futures of Justin Tuck and Mathias Kiwanuka uncertain, Moore could be in line for a significant increase in playing time next season. At worst, Moore should be part of a rotation next year. The good news for us is that Moore has had very little playing time and should come at a relatively cheap price. I would make Moore a priority at the start of your leagues offseason because you want to move on Moore before news of Tuck's and Kiwanuka's future is determined.
DL Devin Taylor, Detroit Lions: Taylor, a fourth round pick in the 2013 draft, has played much more than expected, largely due to a rash of injuries at defensive end. Once they saw him on the field, Taylor has been a part of the rotation ever since at defensive end and has been making plays. Taylor is definitely a part of the Lions future but is still a player that is well under the radar. Taylor was not a very productive player in college but has the athletic ability and potential to develop into a solid player. This is definitely a player to keep an eye on early in the offseason.
DL Margus Hunt, Cincinnati Bengals: Hunt has rarely been on the field and given that it is difficult to know what he is capable of doing. However, Michael Johnson will be an unrestricted free agent and at this time it is uncertain as to whether the Bengals will sign him to a long-term contract, franchise him, or let him walk. Should Johnson leave, Hunt will likely see a significant increase in playing time but even if Johnson stays, Hunt should at worst be part of a rotation. Since we don't really know what is going to happen, the price is low. The time to buy is now. If you wait until all of the facts come out, everyone will know them and the cost will be higher.
DL Dion Jordan, Miami Dolphins: The situation with Jordan is one that must be monitored during the offseason. In other words, don't be in the same rush as with the players I have already mentioned. The Dolphins traded all the way up to the third spot in the draft to select Jordan with the thought of bookending him with Cameron Wake and terrorizing quarterbacks. That has not been the case as Jordan only has two sacks all season long. The important thing to not is there is uncertainty regarding what position Jordan will play next year. There is a chance he will play strong-side linebacker in the 4-3 defense. Before the draft I expected Jordan to be drafted as a 3-4 outside linebacker. The bottom line is the only way I would try to trade for Jordan is if I was certain that he would play as a 4-3 defensive end and even then I would not overpay.
DL Cornelius Carradine, San Francisco 49ers: Carradine, a second round pick in last year's NFL draft, has not played at all this year due to a torn ACL suffered when he was in college. There is little doubt Carradine would have been a first rounder if not for the injury. He has a relentless motor, great size and speed, and can play defensive end in either a 4-3 or 3-4 defense. I am extremely high on Carradine and injured players are always a target of mine so there are multiple reasons to inquire about the availability of Carradine.
LB Arthur Brown, Baltimore Ravens: Brown has not played nearly as much as most of us thought when the Ravens spent a second round pick on him in last year's NFL draft. I fully expected Brown to be a three-down linebacker from day one but that never materialized. In fact Brown has played less than a quarter of the defensive snaps and that is an extremely low number for a second-round pick. However, draft pedigree suggests Brown will be given every opportunity to earn more playing time next season, with "earn" being the key word. While I am not as certain about Brown's future as others on this list, I do know if the cost is low, I am more than willing to take a chance on acquiring Brown and seeing what happens. It seems like a low risk and potentially high reward situation. I absolutely would not overpay for Brown.
LB Kevin Minter, Arizona Cardinals: This is a difficult situation to handicap. When Minter was drafted by the Cardinals in the second round of last year's draft, he was expected to step right into the starting lineup, especially with Daryl Washington missing the first four games. Then the Cardinals signed Karlos Dansby to a one-year contract and Dansby has played well all season long. But even with that, Washington was still out the first four games and Minter was never able to earn any playing time. That is a major concern. Dansby only signed a one-year contract and it remains to be seen if he will return, especially given that his price should definitely be higher and the Cardinals may not be able to afford to keep him. I think taking a chance on Minter while his cost is this low is a good idea, but just know if Dansby is signed again, Minter will be virtually worthless. But if you buy for a dirt cheap price and it doesn't pan out, it's really not much of a loss.
DB Shamarko Thomas, Pittsburgh Steelers: I am generally not big on buying defensive backs because they are easy to find during the season, but Thomas impressed me enough to at least consider taking a look. Free safety Ryan Clark is on the last year of his contract and is 34 years old. Troy Polamalu has been injury prone and is also getting up in years, although I expect him to return. Regardless, my gut says Thomas will start at free safety next year and could eventually play strong safety, so if the cost is low enough, it doesn't hurt to ask about his availability. I definitely would not pay a whole lot.
DB Philip Thomas, Washington Redskins: Thomas has missed the entire season due to a Lisfranc injury and that cost him a chance and perhaps a good one of earning the starting strong safety job. That position has been problematic for the Redskins all season and I fully expect Thomas to compete for the job next year. The fact that he missed the entire season keeps his cost very low and anyone that reads my articles knows I am big on buying low on injured players that I am high on.
