This article is a weekly look at players generally ranked around the edge of those considered "startable". For the purposes of this article, I will define startable as all players on the edge of starting on a team that starts two defensive linemen, two linebackers, and two defensive backs. Therefore, about the middle of the DL2, LB2, and DB2 range are where the choices begin to get tough. Each position is covered in descending order beginning with the players who have the most prime matchups to those with more risk and less upside to those who are complete reaches. Your mileage may vary, but the idea is to discuss these players and provide you with some analysis that might help you make those difficult lineup decisions a bit easier. I hope that your expertise as an owner has filled your team with enough players that you don't need to consider players outside of the prime cuts discussed here. Good luck and always keep in mind that your feedback and comments are welcome. I also want to thank and give credit to Bob Henry for creating the format for this article.
Note: There are not a great deal of people that play fantasy football in week 17, but whether you do or not, I'm sure you are aware of how unpredictable week 17 is because many teams will not play their starters for all or even part of the game. For that reason, I am going to continue what I have done in the past regarding week 17. Instead of trying to find specific sleepers, I am going to offer some general suggestions that could help you with your lineup decisions in week 17. In addition, since I am not listing any specific players, I will answer any specific questions to anyone via e-mail. Just send the email to borbely@footballguys.com and you will get a response. I only request that you send your questions as early as possible. Unfortunately, my schedule will not allow me to answer any e-mails that I receive after 10:00 AM Eastern Time on Sunday morning, so please get them to me as soon as possible. Barring loss of my internet connection or something unforeseen, I will guarantee an answer to any e-mail that I receive before 10:00 AM Eastern Time on Sunday morning.
As for things to look for, one obvious thing is to know if a team is locked into a specific seed. A prime example is the Kansas City Chiefs. They are locked into the fifth seed in the AFC no matter what happens on Sunday. Teams like that generally do not play their starters long and using any of them in your starting lineups this week is extremely risky. In situations like this, I am generally very leery of coaches stating that they are playing to win or will play their starters as if there was something at stake. I usually go under the assumption that teams will rest their starters (or play them a series or two) if they have a specific spot clinched. There are exceptions though.
On the opposite side of the spectrum are teams that are playing in a game with everything on the line. The Bears and Packers are playing for the NFC North title and the Eagles and Cowboys for the NFC East. In both cases, the losing team is eliminated from playoff contention. These are by far the easiest games for a fantasy owner to make decisions on because neither game is influenced by other games. You know these teams will be going all-out and will not be resti9ng any players this week. Another important thing to note is with several teams potentially resting starters this week, even marginal players on the Bears, Packers, Cowboys, and Eagles could have significant value this week.
Next on the list are the 4:00 PM Eastern Time games. We have no idea of some of the teams that play at 4:00 PM Eastern Time will have a playoff spot or specific seed clinched. Some will clinch as a result of the earlier games. Since we don't know who will clinch and who won't, it makes it tough to count on any players on those teams.
One more thing to be leery of is playing any player on a contender that is battling an injury. Unless a team is in a must-win situation to make the playoffs, these players represent a big risk. With banged-up players, you must pay attention to injury reports, late breaking injury news during pregame warmups, and the inactive lists. A player battling an injury may be active, but it is still questionable whether the player will play the entire game. Be careful in situations like this.
That leaves a few different situations that we can use to help us with our lineups. Basically, the contenders that play at 1 PM Eastern Time and have something to play for will play their starters as they do any other week. A great example is the Carolina Panthers, who clinch the NFC South and a first-round bye with a win or a loss by the Saints. The Saints do not play until 4 PM Eastern Time so the Panthers will not have any idea what will happen and thus will be going all-out to win. Several contenders, namely for wild card spots, play at the same time as the teams they are battling for playoff spots with, so they are not many things that will change during these games. Even in this situation there are exceptions, such as a team having a huge early lead in the game. There are always situations that cannot be predicted in week 17 and this is one of them. I advise everyone to double and triple check all of the possible scenarios for contending teams before making a lineup decision.
The teams that are out of contention offer a mixed bag, but for the most part they tend to play their starters more often than not. Teams like the Jaguars have a low time of possession and that means their defense is usually on the field a lot, so they offer some solid starters. Again, there are no guarantees here.
It is important to pay attention to player news this week, especially from the time the Friday injury reports come out until right before gametime. Teams sometimes offer hints as to what their plans are, but nothing is etched in stone. It also might be beneficial to look back at news from earlier in the week of important players that you have to make a lineup decision on. As I stated, week 17 is much more difficult to predict than any other week. News changes once teams that play in early games clinch a playoff spot or a seed so you also must pay much more attention to news during the early games.
As I stated above, since I did not offer a list of specific players this week, I will answer any questions via e-mail that you have for week 17. Please be specific and give the important things that are needed to answer lineup questions, such as league scoring (at a minimum list points per solo tackle, assist, sack, interceptions, and passes defended). In addition, list the number of starters, the NFL opponent of the player in question, whether the player plays home or away, and any other important fact you deem necessary. It would also help greatly and be beneficial to you to give your thoughts on the players in question. Please send the e-mail to borbely@footballguys.com and barring something unforeseen, I will guarantee an answer to any e-mail that I receive before 10 AM Eastern Time. I believe there are too many circumstances that will arise this week to give a general list and in my opinion this is one of the few times that answering specific questions is better. Please follow what I mentioned earlier in this paragraph regarding giving me as much information as possible. I want to wish everyone good luck in bringing home a championship this week.
