This article is a weekly look at players generally ranked around the edge of those considered "startable". For the purposes of this article, I will define startable as all players on the edge of starting on a team that starts two defensive linemen, two linebackers, and two defensive backs. Therefore, about the middle of the DL2, LB2, and DB2 range are where the choices begin to get tough. Each position is covered in descending order beginning with the players who have the most prime matchups to those with more risk and less upside to those who are complete reaches. Your mileage may vary, but the idea is to discuss these players and provide you with some analysis that might help you make those difficult lineup decisions a bit easier. I hope that your expertise as an owner has filled your team with enough players that you don't need to consider players outside of the prime cuts discussed here. Good luck and always keep in mind that your feedback and comments are welcome. I also want to thank and give credit to Bob Henry for creating the format for this article.
NOTE: This article was written before the official injury reports were released, so please double check that any player listed in this article is playing. Also, you should always check the inactives on Sunday.
Defensive Line
Note: When I mention stats of the defensive linemen, the format will be solos/assists/sacks unless otherwised mentioned.
Prime Cut (Great matchup, strong sleeper)
Adrian Clayborn, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Buffalo)
Season stats: 33/13/4
Last week: 1/3/0
Buffalo sacks allowed per game/ranking: 2.7/Tied for 12th
Buffalo QB pressure allowed ranking: 5th
Clayborn has a great matchup against the Bills, who are fifth in the league in QB pressure allowed and just outside the top ten in sacks allowed per game. The Bills are near the top of the league in tackle opportunities allowed and defensive ends have posted strong tackle numbers against them. Clayborn is in the top ten in solo tackles among defensive linemen and should rack up a high number of tackles and that along with the Bills struggles pass protection makes Clayborn a sold prime cut sleeper this week.
Worth a Gamble (Good matchup, solid sleeper)
Kyle Williams, Buffalo Bills (at Tampa Bay)
Season stats: 30/20/7
Last week: 1/1/0
Tampa Bay sacks allowed per game/ranking: 2.8/Tied for 9th
Tampa Bay QB pressure allowed ranking: 14th
Williams has posted borderline DL1 numbers for most of the season, but he has five games with 5.5 fantasy points or fewer and for that reason I do not consider Williams to be an every-week starter. However, Williams is one of the first players I look at when penning this article and this week he faces the Buccaneers, a team that has allowed the ninth most sacks in the league. Williams is one of the best interior pass rushers in the league and that along with his solid tackle numbers makes Williams a strong upper-level sleeper this week.
Ezekiel Ansah, Detroit Lions (at Philadelphia)
Season stats: 14/9/7.5
Last week: 3/0/2
Philadelphia sacks allowed per game/ranking: 2.8/Tied for 9th
Philadelphia QB pressure allowed ranking: 11th
Despite missing two games and being inconsistent at times, Ansah has racked yp 7.5 sacks and flashed the elite pass rushing ability that the Lions saw when they made him the fifth overall pick in this year's draft. Ansah has had two sacks in each of the last two games and this week faces an Eagles team that is near the top ten in both QB pressure allowed and sacks allowed per game. The Lions have been excelling against the run in recent weeks and that has allowed the pass rushers to pin their ears back and get after the quarterback more than they normally would. Ansah figures to have several sack opportunities and that along with his recent high level of play places Ansah firmly in the upper-end sleeper category this week.
Solid Reach (Backup/situational player with upside)
Justin Smith, San Francisco 49ers (vs. Seattle)
Season stats: 26/16/3.5
Last week: 0/1/0
Seattle sacks allowed per game/ranking: 2.5/Tied for 20th
Seattle QB pressure allowed ranking: 1st
Smith has a solid matchup against the Seahawks, who are tops in the league in QB pressure allowed and tops in the league in rushing attempts per game. The athletic ability of Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson has kept the sack numbers down, but Smith should have a fair share of sack opportunities. Prior to last week, Smith had racked up 11 solos and 6 assists in his previous 3 games and should see plenty of Marshawn lynch and Wilson in the running game. Consider Smith a solid low-grade sleeper with a high floor this week.
Deep Sleepers (For desperate owners only)
Andre Branch, Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Houston)
Season stats: 20/4/3
Last week: 2/1/0
Houston sacks allowed per game/ranking: 2.6/Tied for 15th
Houston QB pressure allowed ranking: 6th
Branch was widely considered a bust earlier in the season, but in the last seven games, Branch has racked up 19 solos and three sacks, with two of the sacks coming in the last three games. Branch has a solid matchup this week against the Texans, who are sixth in QB pressure allowed and starting a rookie QB in Case Keenum. Branch should have a handful of sack opportunities and that along with his improved play of late makes Branch a solid deep sleeper this week. I'm not sold enough on Branch to classify him higher, but he is probably one of the better deep sleepers you will see among defensive linemen.
Cameron Heyward, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Miami)
Season stats: 22/15/3
Last week: 2/5/0
Miami sacks allowed per game/ranking: 3.8/1st
Miami QB pressure allowed ranking: 9th
After only having four solos and no sacks in his first six games, Heyward has played much better of late, racking up 18 solos, 9 assists, and 3 sacks in his last 6 games. Heyward has a great matchup this week against the Dolphins, who are tops in the league in sacks allowed per game and in the top ten in QB pressure allowed. I normally don't use 3-4 defensive ends with limited pass rushing ability, but Heyward has played extremely well of late and with a great matchup should be given consideration by teams that are desperate for help at defensive line this week.
Linebackers
Note: When I mention stats of linebackers, the format will be solos/assists/sacks unless otherwise mentioned.
Prime Cut (Great matchup, strong sleeper)
Thomas Davis, Carolina Panthers (at New Orleans)
Season stats: 63/31/4
Last week: 3/2/0
New Orleans rushing attempts per game/ranking: 24.5/22nd
New Orleans tackle opportunities allowed ranking: 7th
Davis has had an incredible season when you consider that he is coming off of the THIRD torn ACL on the same knee, which is among the most impressive recoveries from injuries in recent memory. Davis has a great matchup against the Saints, who, despite being outside the top 20 in rushing attempts per game, are seventh in tackle opportunities allowed. Drew Brees utilizes the entire field and his entire stable of weapons and his high completion percentage allows opposing defenders to rack up high tackle numbers. Davis will see plenty of tackle opportunities in coverage on passes to running backs and to other players in the short to intermediate zones, not to mention chances Davis will have in run defense. That along with the impressive performance by Davis this season makes him a strong prime cut sleeper this week.
Worth a Gamble (Good matchup, solid sleeper)
Zach Brown, Tennessee Titans (at Denver)
Season stats: 55/16/4
Last week: 7/1/1
Denver rushing attempts per game/ranking: 30.9/Tied for 5th
Denver tackle opportunities allowed ranking: 1st
Brown has a great matchup against the Broncos, who are tops in the league in tackle opportunities allowed and fifth in rushing attempts per game. The Broncos run an up-tempo offense and tend to run a high number of plays and that pads the stats of defensive players. Brown should have a high number of tackle opportunities and that makes him a strong upper-end sleeper this week. Brown's tackle numbers are average at best, which prevents him from being a prime cut sleeper, but the matchup dictates a high-level designation this week.
David Hawthorne, New Orleans Saints (vs. Carolina)
Season stats: 40/26/3
Last week: 5/1/0
Carolina rushing attempts per game/ranking: 31.4/4th
Carolina tackle opportunities allowed ranking: Tied for 11th
Hawthorne has racked up six or more total tackles in six of his last seven games and has five or more solos in four of his last six games. This week Hawthorne faces the Panthers, who are fourth in the league in rushing attempts per game and just outside the top ten in tackle opportunities allowed. The Panthers should run the ball enough to give Hawthorne a high number of tackle opportunities and in addition, Hawthorne is also a capable blitzer. That is enough to classify Hawthorne as a solid upper-end sleeper this week.
Solid Reach (Backup, situational player with upside)
Audie Cole, Minnesota Vikings (at Baltimore)
Season stats: 15/8/1
Last week: 4/5/0
Baltimore rushing attempts per game/ranking: 27.8/14th
Baltimore tackle opportunities allowed: Tied for 11th
Cole has started the last two games at middle linebacker in place of Erin Henderson and has posted an impressive 15/7/1 line, good enough to earn him another start. This week, Cole faces the Ravens, who are just outside the top ten in tackle opportunities allowed and have struggled to run the ball for most of the year. Cole has been a 3-down linebacker but Henderson is returning this week and reportedly will start at one of the outside linebacker spots. My gut says Cole will play three downs again but it is not etched in stone and Cole never impressed me as a player that would be solid in coverage. If news comes out that Cole will play every down this week, I'd consider bumping him up to an upper-end sleeper, but for now I'm keeping him down a notch. Keep an eye out for news on this situation.
Deep Sleepers (For desperate owners only)
Tamba Hali, Kansas City Chiefs (at Washington)
Season stats: 30/6/10
Last week: 2/0/0
Washington rushing attempts per game/ranking: 30.3/7th
Washington tackle opportunities allowed ranking: 3rd
Hali has a solid matchup against the Redskins, who are third in tackle opportunities allowed, seventh in rushing attempts per game, and tenth in QB pressure allowed. Hali has ten sacks and four forced fumbles and players that can cause turnovers when sacking the quarterback are often the type of player you may want to look into to start in a game in which you think you need some big scores to win. If you are in that situation, you might want to take a look at a deep sleeper like Hali. The only reason Hali is not a higher grade sleeper is because he does not have a sack in his last five games.
Whitney Mercilus, Houston Texans (at Jacksonville)
Season stats: 30/10/6
Last week: 2/1/0.5
Jacksonville rushing attempts per game/ranking: 23.5/27th
Jacksonville tackle opportunities allowed ranking: 28th
Mercilus has racked up six sacks this season and has shown flashes of being a strong pass rusher, but he has been plagued by inconsistency and is basically nothing more than a matchup-dependent desperation play for us. Mercilus has a great matchup this week against the Jaguars, who are near the top five in both sacks allowed and QB pressure allowed. They are not a good matchup for tackles, but Mercilus is a pass-rushing specialist and the Jaguars are not only poor in pass protection, they tend to throw the ball a lot in garbage time. For those reasons, Mercilus is a respectable deep sleeper for teams desperately in need of help this week, but this is a definite risk/reward situation so be aware of that.
Defensive Backs
Note: When I mention stats of defensive backs, the format will be solos/assists/interceptions/passes defended unless otherwise mentioned.
Prime Cut (Great matchup, strong sleeper)
Donte Whitner, San Francisco 49ers (vs. Seattle)
Season stats: 48/11/2/9
Last week: 7/2/0/0
Seattle passing attempts per game/ranking: 26.3/31st
Seattle passes defended allowed ranking: 31st
Seattle tackle opportunities allowed ranking: 14th
Whitner has posted mid-DB2 numbers this season and that comes as a big surprise because he has never produced much in terms of big play numbers and also because it is tough to rack up big tackle numbers playing behind inside linebackers Navorro Bowman and Patrick Willis. But Whitner has exceeded expectation in all categories this year and now faces the Seahawks, who lead the league in rushing attempts per game. Despite being only 14th in tackle opportunities allowed and near the bottom in passes defended allowed, strong safeties have generally posted big tackle numbers against the Seahawks this year and I see little reason to expect anything different this week. Whitner is a must start prime cut sleeper this week.
Worth a Gamble (Good matchup, solid sleeper)
Tashaun Gipson, Cleveland Browns (at New England)
Season stats: 47/21/2/8
Last week: 4/1/0/0
New England passing attempts per game/ranking: 39.2/Tied for 6th
New England passes defended allowed ranking: 32nd
New England tackle opportunities allowed ranking: 2nd
Gipson has a great matchup against the Patriots, who are second in the league in tackle opportunities allowed and near the top five in both rushing attempts and passing attempts per game. Gipson should see more than he wants to of stud tight end Rob Gronkowski and with the Patriots tending to run a high number of plays, Gipson is a safe bet to register a relatively high number of tackles. The Patriots have given up several big games to free safeties, albeit not consistently. The presence of Gronkowski and Gipson's solid numbers this season is enough to designate him as a strong upper-end sleeper this week.
Nate Allen, Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Detroit)
Season stats: 53/18/1/6
Last week: 7/1/1/1
Detroit passing attempts per game/ranking: 41.7/2nd
Detroit passes defended allowed ranking: 4th
Detroit tackle opportunities allowed ranking: 10th
The Eagles defense has not played well and in fact the Eagles have allowed the most passing yards in the league. The secondary's poor play has allowed starters like Allen to post solid fantasy numbers, largely due to not being able to get off the field. This week Allen faces the Lions, who are second in the league in passing attempts per game and fourth in passes defended allowed. If the Eagles play like they have been, they will be on the field for long stretches and that should give Allen plenty of chances to make plays in coverage and that makes Allen a solid upper-end sleeper this week.
Solid Reach (Backup/situational player with upside)
Janoris Jenkins, St. Louis Rams (at Arizona)
Season stats: 42/6/1/10
Last week: 2/0/0/2
Arizona passing attempts per game/ranking: 36.5/14th
Arizona passes defended allowed ranking: 5th
Arizona tackle opportunities allowed ranking: 20th
Jenkins has a solid matchup against the Cardinals, who are fifth in the league in passes defended allowed. The Cardinals struggle at times to run the ball and Carson Palmer is often forced to air it out and that combined with poor pass protection forces Palmer into rushing his throws, which explains the high passes defended ranking. Jenkins should have plenty of chances to make plays in coverage and that classifies him as a solid low-end sleeper with upside this week.
Deep Sleepers (For desperate owners only)
Brandon Flowers, Kansas City Chiefs (at Washington)
Season stats: 49/3/1/6
Last week: 3/0/0/0
Washington passing attempts per game/ranking: 36.6/Tied for 12th
Washington passes defended allowed ranking: 10th
Washington tackle opportunities allowed ranking: 3rd
Flowers has not posted the big play numbers that we have been accustomed to seeing, but he has had six or more solos five times this year and his overall tackle numbers have remained respectable. Flower has a solid matchup this week against Washington, a team that ranks third in tackle opportunities allowed and tenth in passes defended allowed. Flowers is likely to post respectable tackle at worst this week and that should prevent a poor statistical game. Consider Flowers a safe deep sleeper that should be considered by owners who want to play it safe at problematic positions this week.
Johnthan Banks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at Buffalo)
Season stats: 35/5/2/5
Last week: 1/2/0/0
Buffalo passing attempts per game/ranking: 34.2/23rd
Buffalo passes defended allowed ranking: Tied for 17th
Buffalo tackle opportunities allowed ranking: 4th
Banks has a solid matchup against the Bills, who are in the top five in both tackle opportunities allowed and rushing attempts per game. Despite being in the middle of the pack in passes defended allowed, the Bills have given up some big games to cornerbacks this season. Banks should see plenty of action because the Bills will likely try to avoid throwing anywhere near Darrelle Revis and that is enough to make Banks a solid deep sleeper this week for teams in desperate need at cornerback.
