It's hard to believe that we're just a week away from the start of the NFL regular season. For many fans, they're just now starting to pay attention. But for fantasy owners, for FOOTBALLGUYS, we're already many months into our preparation. As one of the contributors to the site's projections, I have to have the entire league modeled and projected by late April. Needless to say, a LOT of things happen between then and the beginning of September. I, along with the other staff, tweak our projections and expectations as we go along. But it occurs to me that very little is ever said about the way our opinions change. This article, and others like it, will highlight in a qualitative manner the assumptions that went into my initial projections that have since changed considerably. Enjoy.
On Second Thought...
…Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) will outperform Michael Floyd for another season
Last year, Michael Floyd had more yards (1,041) than Larry Fitzgerald (954) and it had many of us wondering if Floyd would continue his ascendance and overtake Fitzgerald in the fantasy rankings. However, the more I analyzed their respective seasons; I’m left to think Fitzgerald remains the more complete player and will be the main red zone threat yet again. Floyd may be the better fantasy play over the next three years, but not in 2014.
…Julio Jones (ATL) IS a top 5 receiver
I never doubted Jones’ ability, but I ranked him outside the top 15 for fears of a stunted recovery from his broken foot. I was clear from the start that if Jones was a full participant in the preseason, I would raise him back up the rankings. Needless to say he’s answered his critics over the last three months and deserves consideration as your WR1.
…Kelvin Benjamin (CAR) will finish as a top 30 receiver
Rookie receivers are a funny thing. While a rookie occasionally delivers a big season (e.g., Anquan Boldin), most rookies are over drafted. Benjamin is an exception this year as the stars have aligned for the former Florida State Seminole. His size and strength were known commodities, but this preseason he’s shown a full command of the Panthers route tree, and has run precision routes while catching everything thrown his way. Given the dearth of receiving threats in Carolina, it’s hard not to bet on Benjamin being a fantasy WR3 this year, at a minimum.
…Mohamed Sanu (CIN) is worth drafting, Marvin Jones is not
I wasn’t a Marvin Jones’ guy to begin with, but his preseason injury removes any incentive to draft him outside of deep leagues. Sanu has stepped into Jones’ role and been an instant threat in the red zone. He’s worth drafting in the later rounds as a WR4 or WR5.
…Miles Austin (CLE) will be the Browns leading wide receiver
Austin wasn’t on the Browns roster when my first rankings/projections were released, but he exits the preseason as the clear #1 on the Browns depth chart. Austin’s injury history precludes me from being too excited about Austin’s fantasy value, but he becomes the top CLE target on draft night, by default.
…Dez Bryant (DAL) will outscore Calvin Johnson (DET)
Dez Bryant is a consensus top 3 receiver, but few are projecting the Dallas playmaker to outscore Calvin Johnson. For me I think Johnson’s loss is Bryant’s gain in the form of OC Scott Linehan. I expect the Cowboys to be at or near the top of the league in passing attempts, and Bryant will finish as the #1 or #2 receiver while Johnson takes a minor step back as the Lions find more balance offensively.
…Wes Welker (DEN) should be avoided, Cody Latimer is draftable
Welker wasn’t a guy I targeted at his ADP, but I didn’t see him as particularly risky either, particularly in PPR formats. Yet a late August concussion (his 3rd in 10 months) is enough to knock Welker off my draft list. While I realize he appears set to play in Week One, he has to be one hit away from missing significant time. Meanwhile rookie Cody Latimer has been impressive from the first snap, and would step into the Broncos offense in Welker’s place. Anyone getting regular snaps with Peyton Manning is worth drafting.
…Jordy Nelson (GB) is better than Randall Cobb
I was a fan of both receivers, but had Cobb ranked higher than Nelson in early projections. While I still think Cobb can be a fantasy WR1, my perspective on Nelson’s has skyrocketed. I consider Nelson as a true WR1 that is all but guaranteed to finish in the top 6-8 of the position as long as he plays 16 games. Nelson is worth a late 1st round pick, and is a must add in the 2nd. Cobb is better targeted a round or two later.
…Reggie Wayne (IND) has another season left in the tank
A torn ACL last year seemingly closed the door on Reggie Wayne’s days as the Colts’ top receiver. Yet the more I look at T.Y. Hilton, the less convinced I am he can handle a true #1 role. With Wayne 100% healthy, I see no reason why he won’t pick up where he left off with Andrew Luck – which is to say Luck’s most trusted target.
...Dwayne Bowe (KC) is not worth the risk
The Chiefs need to throw to someone, and no other receiver in Kansas City poses a credible threat to Bowe’s targets. Yet, Bowe’s latest suspension and a completely uninspired preseason have me re-thinking Bowe’s position as a top 30 receiver.
…Mike Wallace (MIA) has top 20 upside and may be due for a bounce back season
Wallace was ill-suited to Mike Sherman’s West Coast offense, but that doesn’t mean Wallace is incapable of reprising the stats we saw out of him in Pittsburgh. New OC Bill Lazor will call a more aggressive, fast paced attack and is putting Wallace in routes that exemplify his skill set.
…Kenbrell Thompkins (NE) remains a part of the equation
Thompkins isn’t going to light it up, but he’s run with the first team throughout the preseason and it appears Tom Brady trusts the young receiver. Although there are plenty of other options in New England, Thompkins isn’t going to be the afterthought I projected back in early April.
…Kenny Stills (NO) is risky because of the readiness of Brandin Cooks
I thought Stills had the chance to take another step forward in 2014 particularly if Marques Colston continues to slow down with age. Yet, Stills has been hobbled at points in the preseason and rookie Brandin Cooks has been the talk of camp. Stills should be considered a backup and flex play, where your happiness will be tied to whether he breaks a long reception or not in a given game.
…Odell Beckham (NYG) is a 2015 story
Exiting the NFL draft, Odell Beckham was atop my rookie redraft rankings for several reasons. One, I believed (and still do) that Beckham’s game is the most NFL ready outside of Sammy Watkins. Two, Beckham was stepping into an offense that struggled last year particularly as Rueben Randle couldn’t run the right routs. Unfortunately Beckham missed almost the entire preseason with a bad hamstring, and that’s going to put him behind the 8-ball to contribute.
…Denarius Moore (OAK) isn’t in Oakland’s plans
Moore has been a top 40 receiver in each of his three seasons, but hasn’t evolved into a relevant, every-week fantasy commodity. I didn’t expect Moore to break out in 2014, but I did assume he would be a key part of a mediocre passing attack. However Moore has run with the backups throughout the preseason and isn’t even a lock to make the team. Avoid at all costs.
…Kenny Britt (STL) is a starter
Long-time readers know that I’ve been a harsh Britt critic. I’ve never understood the excitement for a guy that has missed so much time and been a thorn in coaches’ sides to boot. However, I can’t ignore the fact that Britt has been healthy (for once) and has run with the 1s in St. Louis throughout the summer. Given his draft day price tag, he’s finally fallen far enough to be worth the flier.