In the final pre-combine edition of the 2014 rookie primer, the tight ends are front and center. In the previous installments the running back class, looking at the receiving game specifically for the running back position, and the wide receivers were the focus. The tight ends are a more straight forward position for a couple of reasons: the yearly player pool of draft-worthy (and ultimately drafted) tight ends is smaller than either of the other two positions, and the projection model is rock solid in getting the ‘this player or this player’ choices within a draft tier correct.
Like the other projection models, a player gets an overall score (1-100 scale) which mixes together data like their age, physical attributes, and age-weighted production based on their market share of their college team’s passing game. All of those factors compare every player to every other drafted tight end since 1999 and is all weighted together.While setting it up initially is time-consuming, the annual update with the previous season’s data is rather efficient.
As a precursor to the 2014 class, here are a few highlights about the model:
Stingy with high scores
Prior to this year’s class, just 12 tight ends had overall prospect scores of 80 or more. That group is largely a who’s who of the impactful players at the position over the past decade. Here is the list with a little information on each:
Todd Heap (82)
Jeremy Shockey (80)
Jason Witten (82)
Kellen Winslow Jr (87)
Marcedes Lewis (81)
Vernon Davis (87)
Martellus Bennett (86)
Travis Beckum (83)
Dorin Dickerson (81)
Aaron Hernandez (82)
Rob Gronkowski (90)
Ladarius Green (87)
Of this group, seven have had at least three seasons above the TE12 threshold. The two busts of the group, Travis Beckum and Dorin Dickerson, were low-cost investments as later round NFL draft picks. Missing on either of them resulted in churning that TE2/3 spot into another option within the first couple of seasons. Both Beckum and Dickerson lacked ideal tight end size in looking for common characteristics. Aaron Hernandez and Vernon Davis were also on the smaller side, but found success as split-out passing targets in the NFL. The final name on the list is Ladarius Green, one of the hottest names at the tight end position this offseason. The receiver-like pass catcher in San Diego was one of the most efficient players at any position in limited opportunities in 2013 and Antonio Gates is on the clear downside of his athletic career arc.
This year’s class features two potential additions to the above list pending the combine results. Both are well-rounded in terms of estimated size and speed along with a high-level of team market share production in college.
Kings of the mountain
All of these prospects currently have higher overall scores than any of the drafted tight ends a year ago with only Ladarius Green besting them from the 2012 class. This is shaping up to be the strongest tight end class since the 2010 crop that featured Jermaine Gresham, Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, and Aaron Hernandez. That 2010 class has five players that have accumulated above-baseline seasons, the most of any draft class since 1999.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins
ASJ, as he is commonly referred to as in the fantasy community, currently has the second-highest tight end prospect score since 1999. Only Rob Gronkowski’s 90 has a higher mark. ASJ has an outside chance to raise his score with a strong combine if he gets into the 4.65-4.70 range for the 40-yard dash or performs well in other drills. Even with the on-again, off-again perception of his play at Washington, ASJ has one of the best production scores in 18 and 19-year-old seasons on record.
Colt Lyerla
Like Seferian-Jenkins, Lyerla is not without his concerns as a prospect. Lyerla has off-the-field issues and may plummet on draft day as a result. Outside of that, Lyerla is a rock-solid projection on the field. Lyerla is one of the most athletic prospects at the position could challenge for a 40-time in the 4.5s. Even if Lyerla falls into day three or undrafted status, his metrics warrant moving to the top of his ultimate draft tier. The current state of fantasy tight ends means that upside is the name of the game. There is little difference between TE8 and TE20 and Lyerla has the profile to become an impact player.
Eric Ebron
Ebron falls just below Lyerla in the pre-combine phase of the rankings. Ebron lacks prototypical size and needs a strong combine to lock in above-average athleticism in the model. With a poor combine, Ebron falls into the Tony Moeaki mold. On the flip side, Fred Davis or a less-productive Kellen Winslow are possible comparisons with strong marks in the drills.
Jace Amaro
Amaro is solid across the board in the projection model. His size, athleticism, production, and age are all in the above-average range for prospects since 1999. With an estimate of 260 pounds, Amaro needs to break 4.70 to check the box in terms of speed for his size. Amaro’s raw production numbers were impressive in his final college season, but adjusting for the strength of the offense and his age, they sagi into the merely good range. He also has a little bit of a one-hit-wonder streak to his career arc, nearly doubling his previous yearly high in his final collegiate season.
Good Enough
This is a strong tight end class at the top, making this pre-combine tier a little lost in the shuffle compared to the running backs and wide receivers in the overall mix. While the top tier has top-15 appeal in rookie drafts, outside of a choice landing spot or monster combine, these prospects lag well behind. Each of the tight ends drafted in the top-60 of the 2013 draft (Tyler Eifert, Zach Ertz, Gavin Escobar, Vance McDonald) had overall projection scores in a similar range as this group:
Joe Don Duncan
Duncan’s collegiate numbers are eye-popping (and WR-like). Despite being on the old side, Duncan’s age-weighted marks are in the top 1% of drafted tight ends in the past 15 years. His size and speed in more in line with an H-back at the next level and a late day two selection in the draft would likely be his absolute ceiling. Without the athletic characteristics of the other successful (and highly productive) tight end prospects, Duncan is a wild card at best.
Ryan Corbin
The Southwest Oklahoma State product is well off the radar for the general populous, but scored well in the projection model. His age-weighted production is fourth amongst his 2014 peers and compensates for his likely middling athleticism and size.
Gator Hoskins
Hoskins falls into a similar mix as Corbin (more production than athlete) but has much more appeal in terms of where he is projected in the draft. With a strong combine, Hoskins can elevate to the Dustin Keller or Aaron Hernandez level of shorter, but athletic receivers. On the other end of the spectrum, a time in the 4.60-4.70 range pushing Hoskins closer to late round picks like Orson Charles or Eric Johnson of years past.
Middling Options
This group features prospects with decent overall scores, but a wart or two on their resume that makes them blend into the overall rookie landscape. Outside of tight end premium leagues, they are long-shots to warrant much attention at this pre-combine juncture.
Crockett Gillmore has the size and decent college production, but may run one of the slowest 40 times in this class. In the era of tight ends emerging as legitimate receiving weapons, Gillmore fits the mold of a blocker and occasional secondary tight end receiver at the NFL level.
Xavier Grimble is the wild card of this bunch as his size and projected athleticism are both above average. His USC production was down throughout his career, but a time in 4.6s would be a big boost as a worthy flyer and move him up a tier in the model.
C.J. Fiedorowicz has that ‘jack of all trades, master of none’ profile without a score above 64 in any category. If he confirms his passable athleticism through the drills, he becomes very situationally-dependent prospect with a stacked deck against him becoming a fantasy-relevant option.
Richard Rodgers is a smaller, less productive version of Fiedorowicz. He lacks a defining characteristic to his projection profile and fits the mold of NFL depth option more than anything.
Rob Blanchflower is an interesting small school prospect. He was highly productive at Massachusetts with dominated age-adjusted seasons at 22 and 23 years old. Of course that means he enters the NFL at 24 years old, a demerit compared to a majority of successful prospects in the past. He has passable size, but could put up very weak drill times, moving him from the ‘monitor’ category to off the radar.
Justin Perillo, like Blanchflower, was productive but did it off the beaten path in college (Maine) but needs strong drill times to bump up his athleticism score.
Need Help
Nick O’Leary is the best of the rest in this tier with an overall score of 47 in this pre-combine phase. He has a middling production score from his Florida State days and the best thing about his overall profile is his age, where he will be 22 years old on Week one.
Troy Niklas is the surprise name this low on the list. The Notre Dame product is well-known compared to most of the names outside the top tier, but does not score well according to the model. His size and age are the bright spots of his profile, but he is likely to be a middling athlete through the drills and the production was forgettable. Only one tight end since 1999 with his level of age-adjusted production turned into a difference-making fantasy option at some point in his NFL career to-date, Donald Lee for a single season. Niklas has the look of a secondary tight end more than lead option on a depth chart.
Michael Flacco was productive at new Haven, but is one of the oldest prospects in recent memory. He is not projected to be a strong athlete, leaving him in the bottom tier for this year’s tight end crop.
Jacob Pedersen, like Flacco, is on the old side and also is lacking even average production at Wisconsin, putting him at a big disadvantage for future relevance.
Arthur Lynch and Jake Murphy both fall into the Troy Niklas group where the production was lacking enough to derail any positives about their size or good athleticism. They are well off the radar outside of the deepest of tight end premium leagues.
Marcel Jensen has noteworthy size at 6’5” and already confirmed long arms and good hand size. Unfortunately, his production is in the lowest 5% compared to over 200 historical tight ends in his days at Fresno.
Jake Murphy currently has the lowest projection score for the 2014 class. His size is decent, but he could run in the 4.9s and he had just a single (older) season of even decent production at Utah.