The odds of finding an eventual fantasy starter at wide receiver plummet outside of the top-four NFL draft rounds. As a group, the odds are close to 5% of picking (and holding at the right time) that needle in a haystack, 1-in-20. Are you feeling lucky?
Increase Your Odds
This article has little application for dynasty leagues with less than 22-25 roster spots. Building a quality watchlist is vital in any league regardless of the depth the rosters. It always pays to be up on the potential breakout players a year or two down the line. Here are the projection model averages in the different categories for receivers drafted in round five or later plus undrafted free agents that stuck in the NFL on a roster:
Details on the Scores
- Each category scores a prospect in relation to all other receivers since 1999
- The range for each category is 1-100 with and average of 50
Age: 43
Size: 50
Athleticism: 46
Production: 37
Late-round receivers are typically older, lack some athleticism, and as a whole did not produce at the college level. As a result, the NFL passed on them multiple times or altogether. Now, here are the averages for the VBD-producing wide receiver prospects acquired in this range:
Age: 51
Size: 74
Athleticism: 53
Production: 43
Putting the score increases into a percentage, here are the hits versus the overall late-round wide receiver group:
Age: +19%
Size: +48%
Athleticism: +15%
Production: +16%
Size Matters
The elephant in the room is size with a 48% increase. I mine tons of production data in the months of January for college prospects. While the projection model balloons with wide receivers from every level that possesses above-average production, the enthusiasm must be tempered. The physical measurements for these small school (typically) standouts are very rough estimates and usually in the player’s favor. That 6’3”, 220-pound prototypical outside receiver on paper or the school website may come in at 6’1” and 198 pounds when pro days come around. That is an extreme example, but weight, thickness, hand size, arm length, and other measurements are a factor and for most prospects an unknown until later in the draft process. Victor Cruz had a size score of 79. Pierre Garcon, Steve Johnson, Marques Colston, Miles Austin, Wes Welker, and Riley Cooper all had size scores of at least 68. Size matters.
Age Matters
The second factor is age. Ask Jon Moore (@TheCFX) of Rotoviz.com how difficult it can be to track down a small school prospect’s age. I will save some time: it is a time-consuming task. Combing those recruiting websites, school rosters, and more can be just the start. My philosophy is if I cannot obtain a small school player’s age, assume they will be a 23-year-old rookie in the NFL until I verify otherwise. While not a perfect system, they tend to gravitate to the older side of the prospect spectrum. So finding a larger, thicker, and younger late-round wide receiver are important factors in the hunt for the next productive fantasy starter.
Fit the Profile
2012
While not too late entering year three, time is running out to continue to stick on NFL rosters and have a legitimate chance.
- Gerell Robinson: great size and was a hair under 23 years old entering the NFL. The rest of his profile is middling, so not the best flyer.
- Jarrett Boykin: The criteria at work. Boykin emerged in 2013. His profile included top-notch size and 22.8 years old starting his NFL career.
- Jermaine Kearse: Another player that had (and has) some dynasty buzz compared to the typical late-round or undrafted receiver. Size and 22.6 years old as an incoming rookie.
- Jeff Fuller: Size score of 88 plus 22.4 years old as a prospect. His window is closing to gain a role, but Fuller fit the criteria along with a production score of 62 to boot.
- Rishard Matthews: A well-balanced profile with good size, 22.9 years old, plus athleticism and production each above-average.
- Greg Childs: We will never know because of injuries with Childs. A 92 size score and 83 athleticism score were highly-intriguing otherwise. Victor Cruz was one of the very few late-round (or undrafted) wide receivers with similar size and athleticism scores like Greg Childs.
2013
- T.J. Moe: A Wes Welker-like inside receiver with ideal size for his height. Passable age, average athleticism, however, it looks like a role is not going to be found.
- Josh Lenz: Size score of 75 and athleticism of 90 is ideal, but anemic production in college and on the outside looking in for an NFL role.
- Mark Harrison: Size score of 98, athleticism size of 85. Woeful production, but Chiefs passing game is up for grabs outside of Dwayne Bowe. Needs to harness his physical gifts.
- Da’Rick Rogers: Ideal size plus above-average athleticism and production marks. Add to that his 22.2 age entering the NFL and easy to see why dynasty owners continue to stash Rogers. The drafting of Donte Moncrief is a long-term concern and signing Hakeem Nicks this offseason to a short-term deal hinder Rogers’ chances in both regards.
2014
- Kofi Hughes: Size score of 74 with average athleticism. 22.4 years old and passable production.
- Willie Snead: The youngest late-round option fitting this criteria since 2011 at 21.9 years old. Bottom 10% athleticism, however, that offsets his average-level production.
- Eric Thomas: Thick, athletic, productive and young. Landed in Indianapolis with a stacked depth chart, but good profile to stick with the Colts or elsewhere with a strong 69 overall projection model score.
- Brandon Coleman: One of the more well-known 2014 prospects on this list. Commonly a late-round rookie draft pick as Coleman landed with the Saints. Size score of 61 lower than most would assume considering his raw height. Lacks athleticism (score of 25) to make his overall profile questionable as the heir to Marques Colston. Consider him a very poor man’s version of the long-time productive Saints wide receiver.
- Jordan Harris: A deep dynasty name to remember. One of the highest production scores in the model period with ideal size and average athleticism. Another metric-favorite stashed by the Indianapolis Colts following the NFL draft.
- Albert Wilson: Getting some buzz in Chiefs camp and highly-productive with above-average size and athleticism. Only 22.2 years old as well. One of my favorite stash players in dynasty leagues with 25 or more roster spots.
- Quincy Enunwa: The Jets have questions in the passing game after Eric Decker. One of the few wide receiver prospects since 1999 to have score of at least 95 in terms of size and athleticism. Was a one-year wonder in college. Has theraw tools and is 22.3 years old for week one.
- Robert Herron: Another potential Wes Welker with ideal thickness as a shorter, likely interior NFL receiver. Average athleticism and production. 22.3 years old. Lowest overall projection score of any of the 2014 wide receiver prospects on this list.