During the season, information and changes in the rankings are flying by with the swiftness of an early-morning flight. This week, I take a look at the biggest changes in my dynasty rankings (which have been updated as of October 15) since the preseason:
Quarterbacks
Philip Rivers was a mid-to-low QB2 on my value chart prior to the season. Now, Rivers is a high-priority QB2 with an argument to be a few spots higher. My approach as changed to the quarterback position to some extent where it is the least important position in terms of age impact. Consistency and top-6 upside are the most important factors whether a signal-caller is 25 or 35 years old.
I liked young guns like Blake Bortles, Teddy Bridgewater, Logan Thomas, and Zach Mettenberger quite a bit and they debuted in the QB2 range of the rankings prior to the season. With plenty of 'fallers' like Jake Locker, Robert Griffin, Geno Smith, EJ Manuel, and Sam Bradford to name a few, the rookies get the nod moving up a handful of spots each. Brian Hoyer looks like he will keep the Browns job for a bit and moved from the 40s to the 30s as a stopgap and especially a functional option in QB-premium leagues. There has been little movement within the top-10 at the position over the last eight weeks.
Running Backs
This position is always the most volatile to short-term production as injuries and depth chart changes shift the climate quite a bit. With double-digit touches each week, even run-of-the-mill 'talents' like Matt Asiata and Storm Johnson carry value in-season due to bye weeks, injuries, and poor play by supposed 'safe' running backs around them.
Montee Ball has fall 20+ spots on the positional board since August. I really thought that the situation would rise Ball's tide, at least for a year or two. Never a fan of his innate talent, Ball was proving prior to his injury that a back below the Mendoza line can torpedo those plans. Ronnie Hillman is pulling a 2012 Knowshon Moreno and C.J. Anderson and Juwan Thompson could both produce at or above what Ball did in the opening weeks.
Adrian Peterson is another major decline, which falls into the 'well, duh' category. Adam Harstad wrote a comprehensive view of Adrian Peterson in a dynasty setting already this season. I was one of the lowest rankers on Peterson prior to all the off-the-field adjustments as I am wary of all 29-year-old running backs in a dynasty setting when having to still investment a premium in them like Peterson prior to the start of this season. From RB16 in the preseason, Peterson now wallows in the RB45 range. From RB30 to RB50, the raw values on my board are very flat, so Peterson fits anywhere in there depending on team direction and risk tolerance. Peterson used to be a contending team only target, but now is a 2015 arrival date-type option that may have a season or two left as a fantasy starter. As my rankings indicate, I would side on young upside plays like Latavius Murray or Charles Sims instead, but do not see a big raw value difference between Peterson and those type of options.
Lamar Miller, Jerick McKinnon, and Isaiah Crowell were all highly-ranked compared to the consensus in the preseason, but have continued to rise since. Jerick McKinnon has developed nicely in the opening handful of games and his story from no-name college utility player to combine star to top-100 draft pick to Adrian Peterson's praise to toying with defenders in one-on-one situations to start his career show his untapped potential. Two months after few outside the dynasty and draft communities knew of Jerick McKinnon, he is a widely discussed redraft option by the mainstream. After Terrance West took the early depth chart lead behind Ben Tate in Cleveland, Isaiah Crowell passed him like West was standing still. With the lack of talented young options at the running back position for dynasty (for now *waits patiently for 2015 rookie class*), McKinnon and Crowell are in the top-15 mix with an argument to be as high as the top-8 for teams looking ahead to 2015. Lamar Miller has performed well and not gets a boost with Knowshon Moreno out of the mix for an extending period of time. Miller is in the RB6-10 range.
Eddie Lacy is concerning. Not just from a production standpoint (most had him pegged for top-5 numbers this year), but check out the tape. Lacy has some Trent Richardson moments (by some I mean many) where he is looking for as many collisions as possible to gain a yard or two. While fun to watch, those MMA and good old fashioned wrasslin' moments, I cannot see Lacy holding up for long. Lacy moved down to RB10, which is a big drop concerning, as I mentioned before, the lack of young, talented, and productive options currently available to dynasty owners.
Finally, Joseph Randle, Branden Oliver, Alfred Blue, and Tyler Gaffney all have risen 20+ positional spots from deep down the rankings since the preseason due to current production (Oliver), flashing lead back potential (Randle, Blue) or landing in a murky depth chart that could break in his favor for 2015 (Gaffney). Randle is a must for all DeMarco Murray owners considering his cheap price point, Murray's workload, and the potential for Randle to see 75% of Murray's title-winning weekly production in case of injury. Tyler Gaffney, if available, is a no-brainer stash as he is IR-eligible in fantasy leagues.
Wide Receivers
Not much change throughout the top-15 to top-20 of the rankings. Nothing dramatic happening within that range outside of Calvin Johnson and A.J. Green dealing with short-term injuries. Percy Harvin and Cordarrelle Patterson are off to slow starts, but I trust the talent long-term to require a longer string of deflated production to slide down the board.
Torrey Smith is a tough one to gauge as Steve Smith is playing out of his mind to temper expectations for the rest of the Baltimore passing options this season. Then Torrey Smith is a free agency in the offseason, where things could improve with a new team, but that is not a given. I have supported Torrey Smith through the up-and-down flashes, but time is running out to gain consistency and give reason to still project more than a mid-to-low WR2 ceiling.
Justin Hunter, Michael Crabtree, and Aaron Dobson are all down close to 10 spots in the positional rankings. I wonder about Hunter rounding out his game in the same sense as early career Torrey Smith. Crabtree's free agency is looming and I would project a WR2 possession-type role more than anything to elevate his value in future years. Aaron Dobson has been a favorite of mine since mid-2013, but now is in the doghouse on a passing offense that desperately needs an outside, down the line target. Dobson is looking more like a longer-term hold despite a stretch of WR2 numbers when healthy as a rookie last season.
Jeremy Maclin and T.Y. Hilton, along with Brian Quick get bumps up into the WR20-32 range. I am not enamored with any of them as pure physical talents, but their draft pedigree and recent production is enough to be WR3's or higher in dynasty. Quick was a value boon for folks that continued to buy (or hold) as he was highly-productive in college and small school receiver *can* (see T.Y. Hilton for the opposite) take additional time to get up to speed in the NFL. Quick is following the Vincent Jackson timeline of prototypical sized small school option taking an extra year or two. Quick was on some waiver wires this offseason and is now a weekly starter.
Jeff Janis and Kenny Britt both creep into the top-50. I discussed on the Under the Helmet podcast this week about the chances of Randall Cobb moving on in free agency this offseason. That is a benefit to Davante Adams the most on face value, but Jeff Janis receives a boost as well because of that possibility with his athletic and production profile coming out of college. Britt looks to have second life and is still just 26 years old despite causing dynasty owners headaches for seemingly a decade now.
Down the rankings Charles Johnson (formerly in Green Bay and Cleveland, now in Minnesota) moves up as an athletic freak that has stuck around enough to think something is potentially there. Mohamed Sanu has seen the biggest increase with Marvin Jones a non-factor, the instant plug-and-play appeal with A.J. Green on the mend and simple improved play from the slow start he had to his career after being a day two NFL Draft pick. Andre Holmes is another riser. Derek Carr looks functional at a minimum and the 'competition' for targets in the Oakland passing game is minimal (Sorry, James Jones) if Holmes continues to build on his promising physical attributes.
Finally, Victor Cruz was a topic of my reaction piece earlier this week breaking down the Giants wide receivers. In short, Cruz's age accelerates in my database due to missing the rest of the season, his ceiling is lowered (with a lower probability) in addition to a lower and more probable floor of future production. I was already lower than most on Cruz, expecting Odell Beckham to pass him as the primary receiver by the end of 2015 at the latest. Now, Victor Cruz resides in the WR45-50 range. Rueben Randle is at WR25, with Beckham inside the top-20 dynasty receivers.
Tight Ends
Not much action at tight ends since the opening of the season. Jimmy Graham takes over the top spot with Rob Gronkowski sliding to second. They were close prior to the switch and remain so now. Seeing the consistent gang tackling of Gronkowski and his general playing style lowers his long-range projection enough to break the tie in Graham's favor.
Travis Kelce continues to creep up the board. While not as higher as resident Kelce president, Sigmund Bloom, I am warming to Kelce as a long-term TE1 as the weeks progress. Ladarius Green is looking like a 'year too early' proposition as the dynasty community flocked to annoint him as the next stud this season. Antonio Gates is pulling his Tony Gonzalez impression of playing some of his best ball in his mid-30s. Derek Carrier was added to the rankings since the preseason with his strong college profile and sticking on an NFL roster. Josh Hill is another athletic option that is getting more buzz and could have a larger role in the coming seasons. Both Carrier and Hill are deep league or tight end-premium options exclusively, but on the radar as TE3/4 options. Kyle Rudolph is a noteworthy tight end that moved down into the TE2 range since the preseason. He is athletically average at best and with another lost season, others are passing him as a result.