Right about now is when the fantasy season officially gets interesting. Super-stud Calvin Johnson missed a start this past weekend, Julio Jones could potentially miss the rest of the season, and Michael Vick and Ryan Mathews are back to missing action. Okay, the first two of those are more surprising than the last pair, but owners are to the point where bye weeks and injuries are going to begin to mount. Decisions on players to start are about to get very dicey outside of the deepest of teams.
Trouble in Hotlanta
The first thing that came to my mind when Atlanta lost at the buzzer to the upstart Jets, at home, on Monday Night Football was Steven Jackson. The storyline this offseason was that Jackson finally gets out of St.Louis to play for a real contender, the 2013 Falcons. They are currently 1-4 and four games back of the New Orleans Saints in their own division. The streak of Steven Jackson playing on poor non-playoff teams is likely to continue. Roddy White has yet to be productive and healthy. Not to mention Jackson has been on the shelf with an injury. Now, the news comes out that Julio Jones could miss the season with a foot injury. I will leave the specific injury analysis of Jones and his future outlook and recovery to the good doctor, Jene Bramel, but for Atlanta the season looks to be close to over.
Julio Jones trades since Monday Night:
- Julio Jones and Lamar Miller for Brandon Marshall, Reggie Bush, 2015 first-round pick
- Julio Jones and Dwayne Bowe for Randall Cobb and Le'Veon Bell
The takeaway is that there is a little bit of a discount to be mined is looking for a crack in Jones’ value to acquire him right now. These prices are down from the ‘untouchable’ status this past offseason. So if an owner had their eyes on Jones, but the cost was out of range, now is the time to revisit a deal. One of my trade mantras is that the best time to acquire big-time talents is when they are hurt or are announced they will miss a few games or more. Examples of this were Percy Harvin or Rob Gronkowski months upon months ago or Justin Blackmon when his suspension was announced. Adrian Peterson when he tore his knee up late 2011 is another recent example. When everyone is concerned about a talented player, for one reason or another, that is the time to strike. It takes being bold and the ability to stomach the short-term loss of production.
Patience is one of the most important qualities for a dynasty owner to possess
Acquiring a known injured player requires the most patience at this time of year. The season has two months to go in the fantasy regular season. Outside of a team that is 1-4 or 0-5 with little prospects for a late-season run, all the teams are still alive and looking for the playoffs. That makes it tough for owners thinking primarily about the here-and-now to pony up the currently-producing capital it would take to acquire Julio Jones from a team probably doing well. Jones was off to a hot start and is likely on more teams with a winning record than a losing one. Maybe a few deals go down involving choice prospects and future draft picks, but I imagine most owners trading away Jones will be acquiring fantasy starters for the 2013 season. Similarly to acquiring Percy Harvin this offseason, targeting Jones is a move that will likely decrease an owner’s chances to make the playoffs or win a title this season. Saying that, I want to throw in the discussion found in the ‘Dynasty Rankings’ mega-thread from the Footballguys message boards on pages 393 and 394. That discussion centers around the real impact of a single player, even a dominant one, on a fantasy team’s chance at a championship. There was great discussion about the subject, but the summary is ‘not as much as one would think.’ Using that information, the proposition of losing some current production in a 2013 lineup should not be a limiting factor to acquiring Julio Jones for foreseeable future.
That topic of how to value future seasons and ‘selling out for current-year championships’ could fuel multiple installments of this weekly article, but that will be for another time, probably the offseason. The summary for Julio Jones is that now is the worst time to sell him as the vultures will be circling trying to get a discount far greater than is warranted. On the buyer’s side, it is a great time to work the trade lines to acquire the stud for something below his previous top-5 receiver status.
Atlanta offense quick hits
Matt Ryan takes a hit. Not as much on my board because I was lower than most, but think QB10-15 range for the rest of the season. Roddy White is still not right physically and Harry Douglas has not stepped up as a starting receiver when having the opportunity in the past. Douglas is closer to a replacement-level slot receiver than passable outside NFL receiver. Tony Gonzalez may actually receive triple coverage in the near-term. He may have the stickiest hands of any receiver or tight end in the league, but there actually may be no window for the ball to get to his hands. That said, the target volume will be closer to the last two weeks for Gonzalez (28 total targets) and he will be a rock-solid top-5 tight end for competing teams down the stretch. The running backs are in trouble (as if they were great options before) as Julio Jones kept safeties back and sustained drives. Fewer scoring drives and an extra defender in the box are negatives for any running game.
Replacements
Mining through the potential stopgaps for teams with a hole at receiver with the loss of Julio Jones, I came up with a few names. I was thinking about productive players (varying levels) that can be acquired for a reasonable price for competing teams. In a perfect world, the Jones owner has a deep core of receivers and each player on the depth moves up a notch with the loss of Jones not being as painful
Reggie Wayne: On pace for close to 140 targets this year, a far cry from 2012, but still plenty to be a quality option in the WR18-30 range especially during bye weeks. The Colts look to be leaning on the run game more this year than the ‘sling it around the yard’ style of a year ago, but Wayne is getting 27% of the team targets through five weeks. Paying anything lower than a future first round pick is appropriate, adding a lower-level young prospect if needed. This should be an easy deal to make if the Wayne owner is falling out of playoff contention.
Brian Hartline: Quietly Hartline is on pace for 128 targets. He has six or more targets in all but one game. With Mike Wallace’s on-again-off-again presence in the Miami offense, Hartline can be a top-30 option many weeks. While that is not earth-shattering, it is inexpensive depth on a weekly basis with upside of 15-18 PPR points.
Nate Washington: Like Hartline, Washington is a ho-hum option that is likely to have weekly consistency with his targets. Washington has seven or more targets in all but one game and should come dirt cheap in the dynasty trade market.
Austin Pettis: He is another receiver with a decent target load and an affordable price tag. The Rams have one of the highest passing volumes in the league. Pettis is the closest thing to a red zone threat on the team and has four touchdowns on the season as a result.
Vincent Jackson: He is battling a rib injury and the prospects of a rookie quarterback from here out. On the positive side, Jackson is an established high-level talent, on pace for 160 targets, and Jackson’s strength with deep targets matched Mike Glennon’s boldness to throw 50-50 passes downfield.
Steve Smith: The Panthers offense, outside of the game against the even more dysfunctional Giants, has looked pretty putrid. Smith is still getting the targets to be a starter through bye weeks, but nothing more than a WR3/4.
Chris Givens: The Rams are spreading the ball around and Givens has not been able to convert enough of his targets into catches this season compared to his quality rookie year. A lot of that is due to the offensive line and the inability of Sam Bradford to get the ball downfield with regularity. Givens is still one of the better deep threats in the league and he is likely to get more touchdowns down the stretch (zero scores on 15 catches to-date).
Roddy White: Finally the direct replacement to Julio Jones as the lead receiver in Atlanta. The Falcons defense is quite plainly not good, so the offense will be throwing the ball quite a bit later in games. Jones had a whopping 59 targets through five games (pace of 189) as White took a clear backside with a little more than a third of Jones’ total while nursing an ankle injury of his own. White will get all the targets he can handle (think 2010-2011 seasons) once he is up to speed physically. Given his age and lack of production through nearly a third of the season, White’s price tag is more affordable than recent years. Since the season started, White has been traded for Markus Wheaton and a 2014 second round pick. That is the type of deal I would look to offer for White’s services, a future second and added a lower-tier prospect.