Ever since he was drafted, Christine Michael has divided the fantasy community.
Those of us who believe heavily in metrics are attracted to Michael by his off-the-charts levels of athleticism. His explosiveness and general athleticism made him a SPARQ star. SPARQ is a formula that was developed by Nike and used by the Seattle Seahawks when selecting Michael in the second round of the 2013 NFL draft. Michael's explosiveness translated to the NFL as it was easy to see his short-area burst and long speed in space when he got the ball.
Yet, Michael didn't get the ball very often. Trapped behind one of the very best running backs in the NFL, Marshawn Lynch, he logged just 52 carries and one reception over his first two years in the league before the Seahawks traded him to the Dallas Cowboys this week.
Supporters of the 24-year-old running back will suggest that Michael would be a star by now if Lynch wasn't already embedded as a starter in Seattle. However, that claim is hard to make because Michael was also behind Robert Turbin during his time in Seattle. When Turbin suffered a long-term injury at the end of the preseason this year, instead of turning to Michael as their primary backup, the Seahawks brought in veteran Fred Jackson to take over the primary backup role. This is what allowed the team to trade Michael, replacing him with rookie Thomas Rawls.
On the other side of the divide lies those who have watched Michael run in the NFL. While he has high averages for both of his seasons in the league, he has proven to be a hugely flawed player.
Ball security is the most notable concern. Michael has only one career fumble, but career fumble records don't include preseason games. Over this preseason, last preseason and last year's regular season, Michael has four fumbles on just 89 carries. That kind of ratio doesn't figure to improve when acting as a feature back and it would handicap an offense as it currently stands. His fumble rate is a major problem, but not his only problem. Michael's inability to execute plays as designed in Seattle was a consistent source of frustration for the coaching staff.
Considering both sides of the divide, being wary of Michael's move to Dallas is necessary. While cautious optimism makes sense with any back who plays behind the Dallas line, Michael's flaws aren't going to be fixed by it.
On this play, Michael's poor ability as a runner is highlighted. The Seahawks are running a read-option look, with one edge defender left unblocked and Michael alongside Wilson in the shotgun. The unblocked edge defender is very aggressive against Wilson, immediately leaving a wide open cutback lane for Michael to turn towards once he gets the ball. On the inside of the unblocked edge defender is a bigger defensive lineman who is working against the Seahawks right tackle. The tackle isn't controlling the defensive lineman, but he does have outside leverage at this point of the play.
At this point of the play, Michael should either be looking to make one plant with his left foot to cut back against the grain of the play or push it further towards the left tackle and allow his blocking to develop.
Instead of making one cut to aggressively cut back, Michael hesitates after he takes the ball from Wilson. He shows off heavy feet as he attempts to shift his weight back to the right side of the offensive line, giving the defensive lineman to that side enough time to work back to the outside of the right tackle. A quick footed player such as Marshawn Lynch would have quickly adjusted to this movement in front of him to accelerate back inside. Michael's heavy feet instead brought him to a complete stop as he literally leaned on the blocker in front of him.
Despite his poor play before the line of scrimmage, the Seahawks outstanding blocking on the play and the read-option look that dragged one defender away from the play set him up for success. He had an opportunity to show off his acceleration and long speed by simply being aggressive downfield. In this situation, Michael isn't guaranteed to outrun the angle of the defender working across the field, but a player with his measurables suggests that he should be able to. Beating that defender would give him an opportunity to run in a 22-yard touchdown run.
At the very least he would gain four or five yards before the defender could even touch him if the play is executed as it should be.
Michael isn't aggressive downfield. From the moment he passes the line of scrimmage he isn't accelerating. Instead he stops his feet again to set up a cutback that was completely unecessary. He follows the yellow arrow to beat one defender before running into another, limiting the gain on the play to two yards. Not only did he fail to follow the red arrow and run away from the incoming defender, he never even drifted that way as he advanced upfield to take away the defender's angle.
This is the kind of play that frustrates coaches as much as a fumble. Michael did everything he possibly could have wrong and the Seahawks lost a potential big play because of it.
In Seattle, this kind of outstanding execution on the offensive line was rare than it will be for him in Dallas. Therefore, Michael wasn't getting as many opportunities to correct these mistakes as he will in Dallas. The concern for him with the Cowboys is if he does this kind of thing even once, the coaching staff won't feel compelled to keep him on the field. The Cowboys already moved on from Lache Seastrunk this offseason, a player who possesses similar strengths to Michael with the same flaws. Seastrunk's inability to adapt meant that the Cowboys simply went with their more reliable options.
While there are plenty of examples of Michael's flaws, there are also positive examples of him working between the tackles. This one comes from the same game against the Arizona Cardinals last season.
On this play, Michael never stops his feet. He reads his fullback's block and adjusts while moving forward. After protecting the ball while passing through the line of scrimmage, he fends off one tackle with his upper body strength before driving his legs through the next to create further yards through contact. This is the kind of aggressive, quick-footed play that Michael needs to show off to get the most out of his physical ability.
Running from the shotgun is something Michael likely won't be doing as much of with the Cowboys. The Cowboys run a lot of outside and inside zone plays, making use of their offensive line's athleticism upfront.
While the Cowboys offensive is on a completely different level to the Seahawks offensive line in terms of individual talent, the style of each unit is similar. This should benefit Michael. He may not have consistently executed the Seahawks scheme while playing in it over the past few years, but he does at least already have that experience working the same principles he will in Dallas. He isn't going to have to learn a completely new scheme or run an overwhelming amount of power between the tackles.
This is the type of play that Michael and any other Cowboys running back will see a lot of this season. The young back follows his fullback before reading the second level block to make a subtle change of direction upfield. On this play, he maximized what his blocking gave him and didn't go looking for the big play outside without good reason. If Michael can become consistent doing this while also learning to protect the ball, he would be one of the most productive starters in the NFL behind the Cowboys line.
Rare do you find a player whose floor is so distinctly defined as offering nothing while his ceiling is distinctly defined as being the most productive player at his position. That is the risk with Michael. Many will have extreme opinions on him in either direction, but the truth, like it often does, should land somewhere in between.
The value of the Cowboys offensive line is greater for a back with limited physical ability and consistent vision/technical prowess. It creates space for backs who can find it so there is no added value for a back who is turning away from the space he is given. A less physically-gifted player such as Lance Dunbar is more likely to get the most of the yards that this situation offers. Justin Forsett is a great example of that type of player. He doesn't possess anything close to Michael's physical talents, but his vision, footwork and discipline allowed him to be hugely productive behind a great offensive line in Baltimore.
Making a strong waiver claim for Michael or spending a late round pick on him in any kind of draft would be smart, but there is significant risk that he won't even get on the field ahead of the Cowboys other backs. Joseph Randle is likely still the best back to own on that roster, while Dunbar fits best as a third down back. The ambiguity is such in Dallas that Darren McFadden could even take the bulk of the carries ahead of all three players.