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IDP Strong/Weak Plays

This will be a weekly feature for IDP owners out there who are having some troubles deciding who to start on Sundays. I'm going to analyze the statistics in a few different ways to find favorable matchups and unfavorable matchups and then point out some players who are most likely to be affected by those matchups. I'll provide the reasoning behind these selections so you can think about it and decide for yourselves. I will also review my picks from the week before so you can see how accurate the picks have been. As most people know, predicting performance on a game by game basis can be difficult for offensive players, but that difficulty is often exaggerated with IDPs. Matchups are important, but there are so many other variables that come into play that sometimes you have to just stick with your best players and hope they come through with just one or two big plays. Good luck.

Review of Last Week's Selections


  • DL New York Giants (vs St. Louis Rams): DE Michael Strahan - 3 solos, 1 asst, 1 sack = 6.5 pts
  • DL New York Jets (@ Baltimore Ravens): DE Shaun Ellis - 3 solos = 3 pts
  • DL Buffalo Bills (@ New Orleans Saints): DE Aaron Schobel - 5 solos = 5 pts
  • DL Atlanta Falcons (vs Minnesota Vikings): DT Rod Coleman - 2 solos, 2 sacks, 1 FF = 10 pts
  • LB New York Jets (@ Baltimore Ravens): MLB Jonathan Vilma - 11 solos, 5 asst = 13.5 pts
  • LB Oakland Raiders (vs Dallas Cowboys): MLB Danny Clark (4 solo, 1 asst = 4.5 pts), OLB Kirk Morrison (2 solo, 5 asst = 4.5 pts)
  • LB Cincinnati Bengals (vs Houston Texans): MLB Odell Thurman - 3 solos, 1 sack, 1 PD = 7 pts
  • LB Carolina Panthers (vs Green Bay Packers): MLB Dan Morgan - 7 solos, 2 asst = 9 pts
  • DB San Francisco 49ers (@ Arizona Cardinals): SS Tony Parrish - 5 solos, 2 asst, 1 PD = 7 pts
  • DB Carolina Panthers (vs Green Bay Packers): CB Chris Gamble - 1 solo, 1 asst = 1.5 pts
  • DB Cincinnati Bengals (vs Houston Texans): SS Madieu Williams - (was injured on Friday, did not play)
  • DB Detroit Lions (@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers): SS Kenoy Kennedy - 7 solos, 2 asst = 8 pts

Hit Rate for Week 4: 8/12 (67%)
Year to date: 26/47 (55%)


  • DL St. Louis Rams (@ New York Giants): DE Leonard Little - 2 solos, 2 asst = 3 pts
  • DL New England Patriots (vs San Diego Chargers): DE Richard Seymour - 3 solos, 3 asst = 4.5 pts
  • DL Tennessee Titans (vs Indianapolis Colts): DE Kyle Vanden Bosch - 2 solos, 1 asst = 2.5 pts
  • DL Jacksonville Jaguars (vs Denver Broncos): DT Marcus Stroud - 4 solos = 4 pts
  • LB Philadelphia Eagles (@ Kansas City Chiefs): SLB Dhani Jones - 3 solos = 3 pts
  • LB New England Patriots (vs San Diego Chargers): OLB Mike Vrabel - 9 solos, 1 asst = 9.5 pts
  • LB New Orleans Saints (vs Buffalo Bills): MLB Courtney Watson - 1 solo, 3 asst = 2.5 pts
  • LB Denver Broncos (@ Jacksonville Jaguars): WLB Ian Gold - 4 solos = 4 pts
  • DB Arizona Cardinals (vs San Francisco 49ers): FS Robert Griffith - 4 solos = 4 pts
  • DB New Orleans Saints (vs Buffalo Bills): SS Dwight Smith - 5 solos, 1 PD = 6 pts
  • DB Minnesota Vikings (@ Atlanta Falcons): FS Corey Chavous - 3 solos, 1 PD = 4 pts
  • DB New York Jets (@ Baltimore Ravens): FS Erik Coleman (5 solos, 3 asst, 1 INT, 1 PD = 11.5 pts) CB David Barrett (3 solos, 1 FF = 5 pts)

Hit Rate for Week 4: 10/13 (77%)
Year to date: 28/49 (57%)

A brief note about the hit rates: To provide an objective standard to evaluate these selections, 5 fantasy points will be used as the cutoff for DL and 6 fantasy points will be used as the cutoff for LB and DBs. Thus, when a player is listed as a strong start, that means I think he has a good chance to top 5 or 6 points based on his matchup, and when I say a player is a weak start, that means I think he has a good chance to put up fewer than 5 or 6 points. I'll continue to evaluate my success throughout the season to try and provide you with the information you need to make your starting decisions.

Things went much better in week 4. I hope the changes I made last week had something to do with it. Best of luck with your starting lineup decisions this week. Feel free to e-mail me at with any feedback or suggestions regarding this article.


  • DL Carolina Panthers (@ Arizona Cardinals): DE Julius Peppers, DE Mike Rucker
    The Cardinals rank #4 in fantasy points allowed to opposing DL and have given up 14 sacks on the season. Cardinals QB Josh McCown is not afraid to run the ball, and has also been sack and turnover prone during his brief career, so both Panthers DEs should be able to put up solid stats this week. While Peppers has been a disappointment to fantasy owners so far (9 solos, 4 asst, 2 PD, 1 FR) and has yet to record a single sack, this could easily be the week he breaks out. Last week against the 49ers, DE Bryant Young came up with 5 solo tackles and 2 sacks while matched up against RT Fred Wakefield. Mike Rucker has gotten off to a better start than Peppers (9 solos, 3 asst, 2 sacks, 2 FF), but he'll have a tougher matchup against LT Leonard Davis. Davis is a better run blocker than pass protector, but he had a solid performance against DE Marques Douglas of the 49ers (2 solos, 2 asst) on Sunday and could slow down Rucker. Rucker is probably a solid start this week as well, but his past inconsistency is cause for some concern.
  • DL Miami Dolphins (@ Buffalo Bills): DE Jason Taylor
    The Bills come into this game ranked #5 in fantasy points allowed to opposing DL and have given up 11 sacks through 4 games. Kelly Holcomb takes over for JP Losman at QB this week, and his lack of mobility should make him an easier target for pass rushers to track down. Taylor has gotten off to a solid start (10 solos, 7 asst, 1 sack, 1 PD, 1 FF, 1 FR) under the new defensive system implemented by HC Nick Saban and should have a huge advantage over Bills LT Mike Gandy. Last week against Gandy, Saints RDE Charles Grant finished with 7 solos, 1 sack, 1 PD, and 1 FF, so look for Taylor to fill up the stat sheet this week. On the other side, LDE Kevin Carter is also playing well with 7 solos, 3 asst, and 2 sacks over the last 2 games. Bills RT Mike Williams missed the last couple games with an ankle injury and is questionable to play this week. Saints LDE Darren Howard beat his replacement Greg Jerman for 2 sacks, and if the Bills slide their protection to deal with Taylor, Carter should be able to put some pressure on Holcomb this week.
  • DL Green Bay Packers (vs New Orleans Saints): DE Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila
    The Saints currently rank #6 in fantasy points allowed to opposing DL and have given up 9 sacks. KGB started off a little slow like he normally does, but he caught fire on Monday night with 7 solos, 2 sacks, and 1 FF against the Panthers. He's generally been a streaky sacker throughout his career and this could be the beginning of another hot streak. Bills RDE Aaron Schobel didn't manage a sack against the Saints last week, but he did finish with 5 solo tackles. LDE Aaron Kampman had a couple solid games so far this year, but was nearly invisible against the Panthers on Monday night. He's probably not worth a start unless you don't have any better options.
  • DL New York Jets (vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers): DE Shaun Ellis
    The Bucs rank #10 in fantasy points allowed to opposing DL and gave up 3 sacks last week to the Lions, who were without their best pass rusher James Hall for most of the game. This week, the Bucs may be without Cadillac Williams and will have to face a much tougher Jets front 4. RDE John Abraham is off to a great start on the year (17 solos, 4 asst, 3 sacks, 2 FF, 1 PD) and has to be considered a must-start when healthy. LDE Shaun Ellis has been somewhat of a disappointment thus far with just 11 solo tackles and 1 sack after 4 games, but if the Bucs focus their efforts on slowing down Abraham, he should be able to make his fair share of plays as well.
  • LB Detroit Lions (vs Baltimore Ravens): MLB Earl Holmes, OLB Boss Bailey
    The Ravens rank #1 in fantasy points allowed to opposing LBs and have given up big fantasy numbers in all 3 games played. In all 3 games the Ravens have played, every single starting linebacker they've faced has finished with more than 6 fantasy points, so this looks like a dream matchup for Lions linebackers. MLB Earl Holmes currently leads the team in tackles with 20 solos, but 12 of those came in one game against the Bears. SLB Boss Bailey has 16 solo tackles and 1 sack and should be able to put up solid numbers again this week. WLB James Davis and backup Teddy Lehman haven't done much this year and are riskier plays than the other 2 LBs mentioned.
  • LB Atlanta Falcons (vs New England Patriots): OLB Demorrio Williams, OLB Keith Brooking
    After 2 big weeks in a row, the Patriots now rank #2 in fantasy points allowed to opposing LBs this year. That total is inflated a bit because their last 2 games were against 3-4 teams Pittsburgh and San Diego, but players like Donnie Edwards (15pts), James Farrior (15pts), and Clark Haggans (17.5pts) have had huge games against them. Despite playing as the SLB for the Falcons, Williams currently leads the team in tackles with 26 solos and 8 assists, while also contributing 2 sacks. He has played extensively in the team's nickel package, and should be able to put up good numbers again this week. WLB Keith Brooking has picked up his numbers and has been a quality start in each of the past 3 weeks. He has also been playing in the team's nickel package and had a huge game last week against the Vikings (8 solos, 1 asst, 1 sack, 1 INT, 1 PD). MLB Ed Hartwell has been a fantasy disappointment since he has only been a 2-down linebacker thus far, but given the numbers put up by ILBs against the Pats the past couple weeks, he could be in for a big game this week.
  • LB Tennessee Titans (@ Houston Texans): MLB Brad Kassell
    The Texans rank #3 in fantasy points allowed to opposing LBs and should present a favorable matchup for the Titans. Domanick Davis is averaging 16 rushes/game, but also is tied for the team lead with 10 receptions so he will be actively involved and that should create lots of tackle opportunities. WLB Keith Bulluck has been productive in every game and is considered a must-start so this matchup shouldn't have much of an impact on him. It should benefit MLB Brad Kassel though, who has had 2 disappointing weeks in a row against some tough matchups. Look for him to rebound this week as every opposing MLB has scored at least 7 points against this Texans team. SLB Peter Sirmon had a solid game against the Colts last week (7 solos, 3 assists), but opposing strongside linebackers haven't fared very well against the Texans this year, so he's a risky play.
  • LB Denver Broncos (vs Washington Redskins): MLB Al Wilson
    The surprising 3-0 Redskins enter this game ranking #7 in fantasy points allowed to opposing linebackers and the production against them has been very consistent in all 3 games. All 3 MLBs they've faced have put up very good numbers, including Brian Urlacher (11.5pts), Nguyen (10.5pts), and Tatupu (12.5pts). Therefore, this looks like a great matchup for Al Wilson, who leads the Broncos with 23 solo tackles and has also added 1 sack, 2 FF, and 2 PD after 4 games. WLB Ian Gold has also been a solid fantasy producer through the first 4 weeks of the season (19 solos, 1 sack, 2 FF, 1 FR), but weakside linebackers haven't done as well against the Redskins. SLB DJ Williams only has 1 solo and 1 assist over the past 2 weeks and looks like he could wind up being one of the most disappointing fantasy LB this year.
  • DB Carolina Panthers (@ Arizona Cardinals): CB Ken Lucas
    The Cardinals offense has given up more points to opposing DBs than any other team in the league. Their running game has been hit or miss, so they rely heavily on their two young stud WRs Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald. This means that opposing CBs should see plenty of action each week. Chris Gamble had a disappointing game against the 49ers last week (2 solos, 1 asst) but that had more to do with the 49ers poor time of possession than anything. He still ranks 3rd on the team in tackles, but unfortunately he hurt his ankle in practice on Wednesday and may not be able to play this week. The other starting CB Ken Lucas, had 10 solo tackles in week 2 vs the Patriots and grabbed an INT against the Packers on MNF. He should put up good numbers this week no matter which WR he winds up facing. Look for a nice game out of CB Ricky Manning if Gamble can’t play. The starting safeties Mike Minter and Marlon McCree have shown flashes but probably haven’t done enough to warrant a regular start, and don’t seem likely to benefit much from this matchup.
  • DB New Orleans Saints (@ Green Bay Packers): SS Dwight Smith, CB Mike McKenzie
    Everybody knows the Packers and Favre love to throw the ball, so it should come as no surprise that they rank #4 in fantasy points allowed to opposing DBs. Dwight Smith was recently moved from FS to SS, so he should be involved in more plays and also be able to assist in supporting the run. He currently leads the Saints in tackles with 17 solos and 3 assists, and put up 5 solos last week against a tough Bills matchup. You can count on Mike McKenzie being up for a game against his former team, and he will also likely be matched up against the Packers #1 WR Donald Driver, so he should get plenty of throws his way. The other CBs on the team are a bit too unpredictable and the new FS Josh Bullocks only has one start under his belt so it's hard to know what to expect from him.
  • DB Cincinnati Bengals (@ Jacksonville Jaguars): CB Deltha O'Neal
    The Jaguars rank #5 in fantasy points allowed to opposing DBs and allowed at least 34 points in all 4 games, so this looks like a great matchup to exploit. SS Madieu Williams would normally be the safest play, but he missed last week's game with a shoulder injury suffered in practice late in the week and is questionable to play this week. FS Kevin Kaesviharn had a strong game against the Texans (5 solos, 1 sack) and might also be worth a look. However, I'm picking O'Neal as a strong play from this group. O'Neal has 4 interceptions on the year and is always going to have the potential for a huge scoring week due to his playmaking skills, but he also ranks 2nd on the team in tackles behind MLB Odell Thurman. Both Broncos CBs finished with more than 7pts last week against the Jags, including 13 from rookie Domonique Foxworth. CB Tory James has also been solid this year (13 solos, 2 sacks, 4 PD) and might be worth a start.
  • DB New York Jets (vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers): SS Kerry Rhodes, CB David Barrett
    The Bucs rank #7 in fantasy points allowed to opposing DBs, and may need to throw more this week with Cadillac Williams banged up. Brian Griese looked very shaky last week against the Lions and threw 3 interceptions, so he could give a few gifts to the Jets DBs this week as well. Rookie Kerry Rhodes is having a great season so far with 25 solo tackles after just 4 games, and he should be able to keep it going against the Bucs this week. FS Erik Coleman began the year with high expectations, but didn't get his first quality start last week against the Ravens. CBs Ty Law has yet to make a big impact as most teams try to avoid him and pick on David Barrett, who looks like the second best play this week from the Jets secondary.


  • DL Atlanta Falcons (vs New England Patriots): DE Patrick Kerney
    The Patriots rank #32 in fantasy points allowed to opposing DL and Tom Brady has only been sacked 6 times through 4 games. Kerney has been one of the most productive pass rushers in the league over the past 4 years or so, and he already has 2.5 sacks this year, but he only has 8 solo tackles so far and hasn't managed to break 5 fantasy points in 2 of 4 games played. Rod Coleman also could have trouble putting up solid numbers this week, but he has 4 sacks over the past 2 weeks and ranks #5 in DL scoring, so he'd be a tough player to put on the bench.
  • DL Buffalo Bills (vs Miami Dolphins): DE Aaron Schobel
    The Dolphins offensive line has done a great job of protecting Gus Frerotte, giving up only 2 sacks through 3 games. As a result, the Dolphins rank #29 in fantasy points allowed to opposing DL. After ranking 3rd in the league in 2004 with 46 sacks, the Bills only have 7 this year and just 3 of those have come from defensive linemen (all in week 1 vs Houston). Schobel has been a solid fantasy performer in the past, but he's struggling along with the rest of the team. He could break out at any moment, but this looks like a tough matchup for him if the trends hold up. The only other Bills lineman worth considering is Chris Kelsay, but he has just 1 solo tackle over the past 2 weeks combined (he does have an INT and 3 PDs as well).
  • DL Pittsburgh Steelers (@ San Diego Chargers): DE Aaron Smith
    Despite having a productive offense and strong running game, the Chargers only rank #28 in fantasy points allowed to opposing DL this year. Drew Brees has been sacked just 6 times in 4 games and is doing a good job of avoiding negative plays. Smith had one of the best years of his career last year, but he's off to a terrible start this year with just 4 solos and 3 assists through 3 games. He was completely shut out in his last game against the Patriots, and should have a hard time doing much better this week. None of the other Steelers linemen have much fantasy value.
  • DL San Francisco 49ers (vs Indianapolis Colts): DE Bryant Young
    The Colts enter this game ranked #27 in fantasy points allowed to opposing DL and Peyton Manning has yet to be sacked even once. Bryant Young has thrived in the new 49ers defense, and his 6 sacks have helped him lead all DL in fantasy points so far. This will be a very tough matchup for him, however, as Peyton Manning is the hardest QB in the league to sack and the 49ers secondary has been decimated by injuries. He may be able to rack up a decent number of tackles if the Colts get a big lead and run the ball a lot in the second half, but his upside is limited. DE Marques Douglas has been a solid addition for the 49ers this year, but he's only had 1 quality start out of 4 games played and is not worth starting this week.
  • LB Miami Dolphins (@ Buffalo Bills): OLB Junior Seau
    Thanks to an ineffective offense which has done a terrible job of sustaining drives, the Bills rank #32 in fantasy points allowed to opposing LBs. It is somewhat surprising to see them ranked so low because they do have one of the better running games in the league this year, but through 4 games they are dead last in the league by far. MLB Zach Thomas is off to a huge start and has been the top scoring IDP this year, so there's no way anyone should consider benching him. Therefore, Junior Seau looks like he could be the player most affected by this matchup. The only WLB to do anything against them was Keith Brooking (8.5pts) in week 3. Seau had a great game against the Jets in week 2 (10 solos, 2 asst, 1 sack), but didn't make much of an impact in the other 2 games he played. He's also listed as questionable on the injury report, but he practiced on Thursday and should be able to play. SLB Channing Crowder has yet to make much of an impact in the first 3 games, so keep him on your bench for this week as well.
  • LB Indianapolis Colts (@ San Francisco 49ers): WLB Cato June
    Despite a huge day by the Cowboys linebackers against them in week 3, the 49ers rank #31 in fantasy points allowed to linebackers on the year and things don't look to get much better this week. The Colts boast one of the league's best defenses and a great offense, which should add up to very few snaps for the 49ers offense. MLB Gary Brackett has been a very pleasant fantasy surprise so far this year and his 27 solo tackles lead the team. He has been a quality start in all 4 games so far this year, so he may be able to overcome this matchup and still post solid numbers. WLB Cato June, however, looks like his numbers have taken a slight hit with the arrival of Brackett this year. June has been solid with 19 solos, 9 assists, and 1 INT for a TD this year, but he looks like a risky play this week and may need a big play like a sack or INT to break 6 fantasy points. SLB David Thornton hasn't done much this year and this doesn't look like the week for him to rebound.
  • LB Cincinnati Bengals (@ Jacksonville Jaguars): WLB Brian Simmons
    Through 4 weeks of the season, the Jaguars rank #30 in fantasy points allowed to opposing LBs. Fred Taylor is averaging over 20 carries/game, but his 3.3 average suggests that most of the tackles are probably being made by defensive linemen. MLB Odell Thurman is leading the team in tackles, while also contributing 1 sack, 1 INT, and 2 FF. Broncos MLB Al Wilson put up 12 points against the Jags on Sunday, so Thurman could do enough to overcome the tough matchup. WLB Brian Simmons, however, looks like a very risky play this week. Despite collecting a sack and an INT in the past 2 weeks, he only has 10 solo tackles on the year. Broncos WLB Ian Gold (4pts) saw his numbers drop off with a game against the Jags, and the same thing could happen to Simmons this week. SLB will be split between Landon Johnson and David Pollock, so neither looks like a very promising play this week.
  • LB Chicago Bears (@ Cleveland Browns): WLB Lance Briggs
    Coming off their bye week, the Browns offense ranks 28th in fantasy points allowed to opposing LBs. The offense has played reasonably well, but they rank near the bottom of the league in rush attempts with just 64 after 3 games. Bears MLB Brian Urlacher has put up good numbers in all 3 games and is a must start, but WLB Lance Briggs has been less impressive and could be in for another down week after his 4pt effort against the Bengals. Colts WLB Cato June (4pts), Packers WLB Robert Thomas (4.5pts), and Brian Simmons (5pts) have all failed to do much playing against this Browns offense. SLB Hunter Hillenmeyer has minimal fantasy value and shouldn't be given any starting consideration.
  • DB San Diego Chargers (vs Pittsburgh Steelers): FS Bhawoh Jue
    The Steelers currently rank dead last in fantasy points allowed to DBs, thanks to their heavy reliance on the running game. Chargers SS Terrence Kiel ranks 3rd among all DBs so far, and will likely be used often as an 8th man in the box to try and slow down Willie Parker and the running game, so he should be fine. The other DBs, however, probably won't see much work given how rarely the Steelers pass the ball down the field. FS Bhawoh Jue has been a solid pickup for the Chargers this year and has contributed 3 solo tackles in every game along with 2 INTs in the past 3 weeks, but this is a bad matchup for him. The Chargers CBs Drayton Florence (12 solos, 5 asst, 4 PDs) and Quentin Jammer (12 solos, 1 asst, 2 PDs) haven't done enough to warrant starting consideration this week.
  • DB Indianapolis Colts (@ San Francisco 49ers): SS Mike Doss
    The 49ers enter this game ranked #31 in fantasy points allowed to DBs. 1st pick overall Alex Smith will get his first start at QB this week, but he's not likely to do much against a defense that is allowing an NFL-low 6pts/game. The 49ers will almost certainly be playing from behind in this game, which could lead to plenty of pass attempts and some INT opportunities, but the Colts should also be able to move the ball at will against the 49ers defense and dominate time of possession. Mike Doss had a good debut in week 2 with 9 solo tackles, but he only managed 4 points in each of the past 2 weeks. FS Bob Sanders ranks in the top-10 among DB scoring and is probably a must start no matter what the matchup looks like. The 49ers targeted rookie CB Eric Green of the Cardinals last week and he wound up with 7.5 points, but there's no comparable player in the Colts secondary for them to target so none of the CBs seem worthy of starting this week.
  • DB Miami Dolphins (@ Buffalo Bills): FS Tebucky Jones
    The Bills passing game has been terrible through the first month of the season, and as a result they rank #29 in fantasy points allowed to opposing DBs. They will make a switch to Kelly Holcomb at QB this week, which should improve their ability and willingness to pass the ball downfield, but it might not matter much if the offensive line doesn't give him much time in the pocket. SS Lance Schulters has been productive and shown big play ability with 2 interceptions and 1 sack in 3 games played. Look for the Dolphins to play him closer to the line of scrimmage in order to try and limit McGahee, so he could do enough to warrant a start this week. FS Tebucky Jones, however, looks like a risky play with just 1 quality start so far this year. CBs Sam Madison and Reggie Howard are even riskier since neither of them have put up good tackle numbers in any game this year.
  • DB San Francisco 49ers (vs Indianapolis Colts): SS Tony Parrish
    The Colts currently rank #27 in fantasy points allowed to opposing DBs, which many might attribute to their increased reliance on the running game this year. But, they ranked low in this stat last year as well, and it is primarily because Manning is so accurate in his delivery and rarely throws interceptions. Tony Parrish is having a great year (23 solos, 8 asst, 2 INTs, 4 PD) and leads the team in tackles, so he's probably a must-start for most fantasy owners but he should see a significant dropoff in his production this week. Over the past 3 weeks, the opposing SS has done very little against this Colts offense - Titans SS Tank Williams finished with just 2 solos and 1 assist, Browns SS Chris Crocker only managed 1 solo and 2 assists, and Jaguars SS Deke Cooper had 2 solo tackles. The rest of the 49ers secondary has been decimated by injuries, but none look like great starting options this week. The best of the group is probably 2nd year CB Shawntae Spencer, only because he's the healthiest CB, but Marvin Harrison or Reggie Wayne should be able to have their way with him.

FBG standard scoring system for IDPs

  • Solo tackle = 1pt
  • Assist = .5pt
  • Sack = 3pts
  • INT = 4pts
  • Pass Defensed = 1pt
  • Forced Fumble = 2pts
  • Fumble Recovery = 2pts
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