Fantasy Football Info For Serious Players
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Rookie 100 Part 1 (Top 25)
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Posted 5/23 by Sigmund Bloom, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
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This article will be released in 4 parts (each 25 players long). It reflects Dynasty worth for this year's draft class.
- Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota – Peterson is unlikely to have surgery on the
collarbone he broke for the second time at the Fiesta Bowl, but I have a
feeling that his owners aren't celebrating just yet. The team physician
said he wasn't "overly concerned" that it won't heal properly (so he's
just moderately concerned?), and used other cautious language, not
completely ruling out surgery or a possible setback. Don't let this scare
you from taking Peterson first in non-PPR leagues. If Peterson does indeed
need surgery down the line, or re-injures the collarbone, buy, buy, buy!
- Calvin Johnson, WR, Detroit
– Kitna is impressed already, saying that it seems like Johnson doesn't
have the confused rookie face in the huddle (and Martz's offense confuses
vets). He's good enough to hit the ground running and finish as a top 15
or even top 10 WR this year, because playing in that offense creates
numbers – just ask Mike Furrey.
- Marshawn
Lynch, RB, Buffalo – Lynch's Bills debut in
minicamp focused on pass catching, which is only a good sign for the Cal product. There
is still no indication of the size of Lynch's envisioned role. He had 2/3
of the workload last year - not a true feature back load. You have to take
Lynch if you are sitting at #3 (except in start 2 QB leagues, and maybe
even not then), but I wouldn't blame you if you immediately tried to sell
high – I would start by making Lynch the centerpiece of a package to
obtain a proven stud RB like Willie Parker.
- Robert
Meachem, WR, New Orleans – Meachem has already hurt his ankle, probably
due in part to showing up to minicamp completely out of shape. Meachem's
physical condition drew some sobering words from Sean Payton about how far
Meachem had to go before he was in shape, and how far ahead his
competitors were in that category. Still, it's hard to be pessimistic
about a first round pick at WR who can look forward to receiving passes
from Drew Brees and line up opposite Marques Colston. Meachem doesn't have
to live up to his first round billing to put up pinball machine numbers,
he just has to be competent.
- JaMarcus
Russell, QB, Oakland - Like Calvin Johnson, Russell inspired
the kind of reaction a singular talent should when he makes a first
impression. He reportedly lost weight and hit the playbook hard between
minicamp and the beginning of OTAs, a businesslike approach that runs
counter to some of the pre-draft questions about Russell. Invest with
confidence – Russell's exceptionally high ceiling gives him a chance to
crash the party in the top 5 QBs in the future.
- Sidney
Rice, WR, Minnesota – Rice displayed the
natural ball skills and acrobatics that took over games at South Carolina
during the Vikes first minicamp. He will need more time to hit his stride
than the more experienced WRs in this class, so don't be afraid to pounce
on him as a buy low if he has a quiet 2007. Besides having to make up for
a somewhat premature departure from the college ranks (he's only 20), Rice
could have trouble producing in the first few years of his career if
Tarvaris Jackson doesn't live up to the Vikes lofty expectations.
- Dwayne
Bowe, WR, Kansas City – He was thirty minutes late to his first practice as a pro, then Bowe seemed
tight and battled the dropsies for the rest of the session. Not exactly
the auspicious start that most rookies look for when they show up for
their first day on the job. Bowe might not have much fantasy relevance
this year – Herm is hinting at using Bowe in a WR rotation with Jeff Webb
and Chris Hannon. I am bit worried that Bowe may have no one viable to
throw to him if Croyle busts, and I've never believed in Croyle.
- Brandon
Jackson, RB, Green Bay – Jackson
will get a chance to win the starting job in Green Bay, and if he stays healthy, he
could be the favorite. It's hard to picture Vernand Morency decisively
outplaying Jackson
in practice. He's missing a minicamp because of an obligation to the NFLPA
to attend a trading card photo shoot (among other things). Greg Olsen,
Garrett Wolfe, John Beck, Lorenzo Booker, Anthony Gonzalez are also
missing minicamps while they are at the event. Jackson said he wanted to go to the
minicamp, but the NFLPA barred him from attending. If Jackson wins the job and starts strong,
don't be afraid to sell high.
- Lorenzo
Booker, RB, Miami
– Booker's immediate value went up with news of Ricky Williams reportedly
testing positive for marijuana yet again. Booker even has Ricky's old
locker (Insert drugs left in the locker joke here). Head Coach Cam Cameron
praised Booker's toughness, intelligence, and quickness after the first
minicamp session, saying Booker was "everything we thought". I believe
Booker will earn an increased role once the coaches see what he can with
his touches – since the draft I have become much more enamored with his
situation, and I'm more than sold on his talent.
- Drew
Stanton, QB, Detroit
– Something about the combo of Stanton and Martz just clicks for me. Stanton sounds like
he's completely on board for being torn down and rebuilt by Martz. Think
about this: when he becomes the starter (and he's virtually guaranteed a
shot as a 2nd round pick) Stanton
will be throwing to Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson. He can also rack up
fantasy stats with his leg. Even if Martz leaves and the Lions move to a
more conventional offense, the WR tandem and running ability are more than
enough to give Stanton top 10 QB upside.
- Michael
Bush, RB, Oakland – Lane Kiffin seems to be opening the RB job up to
competition despite Jordan's declaration that he's the starter, so Bush
could get a significant look if he can get healthy in time for training
camp. He doesn't have much fantasy
potential this year, as he's likely to share with Dominic Rhodes and Jordan, but he could settle in and
become the feature back in a potent offense in the future. Boom/bust
special as a first round talent who fell because his twice-operated-on leg
may never be the same.
- Chris
Henry, RB, Tennessee
– LenDale White was overweight, now he's pulled a hammy. Marc Faletti (a
fellow scout and owner over at Draftguys) said that he noticed a lot of
dancing and false steps behind the line watching Henry on tape – so, if we
see Henry hitting the hole with conviction in the preseason, he just might
be a new man on the field. Were the Titans just distracted by the fool's
gold of Henry's workout numbers, or did they find a diamond in the rough?
Henry is falling far enough to create obscene profits if he hits. A late
first is not a huge stake to wager that Tennessee actually does see something
that we don't when the payoff is a starting RB. The trigger becomes even
easier to pull if you can get White for a reasonable price.
- Dwayne
Jarrett, WR, Carolina
– The Panthers welcomed Jarrett by cutting his direct ancestor on the WR
family tree, Keyshawn Johnson. The franchise clearly wants Jarrett to
start opposite Steve Smith well into the future, but he'll have to contend
with Drew Carter for the time being. Carolina
guard Mike Wahle said Jarrett made a good first impression on the vets by
making an effort to introduce himself to all of them.
- Greg
Olsen, TE, Chicago – Lovie Smith said Olsen was "everything that was
advertised" in minicamp, but the Bears seemed more interested in talking
about rookie tryout TE Fontel Mines, a converted WR from Virginia who
earned a contract with his impressive play. Olsen also had to answer
questions about a racy rap song he contributed to as a freshman.
- Patrick
Willis, LB, San Francisco
– Willis is currently lining up as the backup to Derek Smith on the
inside, but that won't last long. Mike Singletary said Willis was good
enough to start for 10 years in mini camp simply because of his natural
ability, but wondered aloud whether Willis had the drive to be great..
Singletary even went as far as saying his technique was "not good". Willis
admitted that there were moments where he was lost during the practices.
- Paul
Posluszny, LB, Buffalo – It seems more likely by the day that Puz will
start in the middle, and Angelo Crowell will start on the strong side.
This will put the Nittany Lion in position to rack up tackles in London
Fletcher-Baker's old spot. He lined up in the middle during the rookie
camp. Dick Jauron hasn't confirmed that the middle will be Posluszny's
home, but Crowell is widely perceived to be more effective on the outside
because he lacks bulk. Puz is in the best position of any of the rookie LBs
to contribute to your fantasy team immediately – he's behind Willis
strictly because Willis has a higher ceiling.
- Jon
Beason, LB, Carolina
– Beason spent the minicamp lined up behind Na'il Diggs on the weakside,
but don't read anything into that. He's good enough to pass Diggs by
opening day. Dan Morgan's history of concussions insures that Beason will
end up in the middle sooner than later - and start putting up high octane
IDP stats.
- Brady
Quinn, QB, Cleveland – Quinn is already getting attention he doesn't want
as the future of the Browns. Joe Theismann (also a Notre Dame legend)
criticized the condition of his hair at the draft, and Quinn got it cut.
He also threw some errant long passes in first practice, and didn't
improve in his second. I can't help but doubt Quinn, and the fact that he's
a QB will make it harder for him to have fantasy relevance unless he's
truly excellent in the pros.
- Anthony
Gonzalez, WR, Indianapolis
– Gonzalez had a solid minicamp, earning praise from Tony Dungy ("He's
what we thought he was going to be."). Gonzalez also said that Indianapolis was "the
team he wanted to go to" and insisted he was sincere. Great numbers await
Gonzalez if he can become a starter in the Colts offense down the line,
but I'm not convinced that he has the skills to do it against NFL
cornerbacks.
- Ted
Ginn, WR, Miami – The longer we go without getting definitive news about the
schedule for Ginn's return to Dolphins and his prospects for 2007, the
farther he falls in the rankings. The reality is that Ginn is probably a
terrific value – playmakers of his caliber rarely last into the late 2nd
round of rookie drafts.
- Steve
Smith, WR, New York Giants – Smith had a great minicamp, showing the
ability to beat fellow rookie Aaron Ross on multiple occasions. He also
impressed Head Coach Tom Coughlin with the sound the ball made when he
caught it – a "poof" instead of a "whack" (which indicates the receiver is
letting the ball get to his palms). Smith's immediate opportunity is tied
to the success of Amani Toomer's recovery
from ACL surgery, but he should have a chance to win the #2 job outright
no later than 2008.
- Craig
Davis, WR, San Diego – Davis got good reviews from Head Coach
Norv Turner before he was sidelined by a strained groin in minicamp. The
injury is minor and should not affect Davis ability to participate in the next
round of OCS's. If Davis develops well,
he'll start opposite Vincent Jackson in the future, but that role may not yield
great stats unless Davis can derail the
Chargers plans to have Jackson
settle in as their #1 WR.
- Mike
Walker, WR, Jacksonville – Walker was the talk of the Jags
minicamp. He showed great hands, body control, and ability to quickly
learn a new offense. He also made the incumbent Jags WRs look slow. This
is a situation to watch closely as Jack Del Rio has basically said playing
time at WR will have to be earned in training camp. He has emerged as the
leader of the prospects who went in the great WR run of 07.
- Jason
Hill, WR, San Francisco
– When the answer to the question "Who does this rookie have to beat out
to start?" is "Ashley Lelie", that's a good thing. Hill will have to live
up to his combine time in the 4.3s to seize that role, as the 49ers are
mainly looking for stretch the field speed from the split end position.
When Hill was informed that Mike Mayock said he was "fast, but not a
burner", he called Mayock a "hater".
- Kenny
Irons, RB, Cincinnati
– Irons will likely be long gone before this pick in RB hungry rookie
drafts. I was never quite sold on his ability to be a feature back because
he lacks the receiving and blocking ability to be on the field for every
down and the bulk to push the pile. That being said, if he had gone to Green Bay instead of Jackson,
he would be much closer to Jackson's
spot on this list. Other than your evaluation of Irons talent, you need to
ask yourself whether Rudi Johnson is really entrenched as the starting RB
for the long haul. If you believe the answer is no, then Irons becomes
much more worthy of a top 10-15 pick.
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