Footballguys.com

Footballguys #118 - 8/15 - The Secret To Winning Your League. Where To Draft Antonio Brown, Updated Everything, And MORE

Volume 21, #118 -- Thursday Night, August 15th, 2019

Note: Unsubscribe instructions are at the bottom of this emailView in Web Browser

Howdy Folks,

Y'all. Can we talk?

The number one question people ask me is simple. They all want to know the "secret" to winning their league.

Here's the secret: There isn't any secret.

The way to win is to be better informed than the other people in your league and to apply that knowledge with the right strategy and tools. That's it.

And I don't know of any better service on the planet that can help you do this better than a Footballguys Premium Subscription. Period.

Every single day I call out the new features we're bringing our readers. Today is no different.

Tons of you are already on board I know. Thank you. If you're on the fence, today is your day. Let's do this.

Now clear your morning out and jump into all the features for today.

J

SITE NEWS

A. Let Us Help You Win Your League
We give away a ton of free information at Footballguys. Thanks for being part of that. But everything we do for free is to showcase our Premium Subscriptions.

It's where we keep the content you need to gain the edge to win. For the cost of a couple pizzas and drinks, we give you access to everything at Footballguys from now until the Super Bowl.

Our friend Matthew Berry from ESPN says, "Footballguys is the best premium fantasy football only site on the planet." check it out here

Plus there's a 30 Day Moneyback Guarantee so there's zero risk.

At $39.95 for the Season Long Pro subscription, $49.95 for the Daily Fantasy Pro subscription or just $69.95 for the All-Pro that includes both, we think it's easily the best value in sports. Those prices cover the entire 2019 season so it's one payment for the season. Many sites charge that much per month. Even for the All-Pro subscription, that works out to less than 50 cents a day.

PLUS - Two big additional things we're doing this year:

1. The Premium Version of the Draft Dominator Mobile App had always been $5 and separate from our Premium Online Subscriptions. This year, people who purchase the Season Long Pro or the All-Pro Subscription get access the Premium Version of the mobile app for free.

2. For our folks who purchase the Daily Fantasy Pro or the All-Pro Subscription, we have a brand new Lineup Optimizer that is KILLER. You'll be able to create powerful lineups for DFS like never before.

Join us and let's win this thing.

B. When to Draft Antonio Brown
I asked our Footballguys Staff the question most everyone is asking this week: "When do you draft Antonio Brown?". Here's what they said.

C. The Gut Check No.479: 2019 Tiers And Confidence Levels
Our Matt Waldman breaks down his 2019 fantasy rankings into tiers and provides a confidence level for the listed players.

D. Top 300 Players Updated
Our David Dodds with his updated Top 300 Players.

E. Top 300 Players For PPR Updated
Our David Dodds with his updated Top 300 Players. This one is for PPR scoring.

F. Draft List Updated
Our David Dodds takes his Top 300 List and factors that aginst Average Draft Position to get a list more like what we'd actually draft with.

G. Draft List For PPR Updated
Our David Dodds takes his Top 300 List and factors that aginst Average Draft Position to get a list more like what we'd actually draft with. This one is for PPR scoring.

H. FREE CONTENT - 8 Deep Sleepers at Tight End
Our "Value Plays" series is one of the best things we do at Footballguys. We poll our Staff for the players they see as Undervalued, Overvalued and as Deep Sleepers. Then we tally the votes and ask our Staff to write their reasoning. Here are 8 tight ends the Footballguys Staff sees as Deep Sleepers.

I. 10 Value Plays at Tight End
In our "Value Plays" series, we ask our Staff to identify undervalued players who should outperform their draft position. Here are 10 tight ends the Staff sees as undervalued. They're the kind of players that win leagues.

J. 9 Tight Ends Who Could be Overvalued
In our "Value Plays" series, we ask our Staff to identify overvalued players. They may still be excellent players, but they're likely to cost too much. Here are 9 tight ends the Footballguys Staff sees as overvalued. Avoiding paying too much can be the key to winning your league.

K. The Gut Check No.480: Parsing the Chiefs Backfield
Our Matt Waldman examines the Chiefs backfield and suggests how fantasy players should approach it on draft day.

L. 5 Late-Round Wide Receivers You Should Be Targeting
Our Justin Bonnema analyzes five wide receivers who offer lots of upside for little draft capital.

M. 2019 Target-Avoid Fantasy Football Quarterbacks
Our Chad Parsons outlines the quarterbacks to target and avoid in fantasy football drafts in 2019.

N. Offensive Line Rankings and Notes: Preseason Week 2
Our Matt Bitonti with offensive line related news, injuries, and updates, prior to Preseason Week 3.

O. Mastering the Auction, Part 5: Bidding Strategies
Our Andrew Davenport looks into learning different bidding strategies to further your auction drafting skills.

P. Draft Dominator Classic For Windows Updated
The Draft Dominator Classic is our original Drafting Tool. It's updated for Windows here.

Q. Draft Dominator Classic For Mac Updated
The Draft Dominator Classic is our original Drafting Tool. It's updated for Mac here.

R. Value Based Drafting (VBD) Excel App Updated
For you Old School guys who love the Excel App, our VBD app is updated here.

S. Projections Dominator Updated
Make the our Detailed Stat Projections work the way you want them to with our Projections Dominator.


1. LAC - No progress in RB Melvin Gordon talks

Source: ESPN - Adam Schefter

Los Angeles Chargers RB Melvin Gordon has not make any progress in contract extension talks with the Chargers, according to sources.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

Nothing new here as training camp and the preseason rolls on. The Chargers seem content to wait this thing out, and they could go with guys like Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson if Gordon misses time. Gordon wants to return to the team before the start of the regular season but is prepared to sit out games if he does not receive a new deal.

Back to Top


2. MIA - RB Kalen Ballage assumes top spot for now

Source: The Miami Herald - Adam H. Beasley

Miami Dolphins RB Kalen Ballage will serve as the team's starting running back until RB Kenyan Drake (foot) is ready to return.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

Ballage will have a tough draw Week 1 against the Ravens if he starts, but he'll be worth a flex play. Mark Walton projects as the third down back for now, although he could face a suspension.

Back to Top


3. LAC - WR Keenan Allen may miss rest of preseason

Source: ESPN - Adam Schefter

Los Angeles Chargers WR Keenan Allen (ankle) suffered an ankle injury during practice this week and could miss the last three preseason games, according to a source.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

The Chargers don't want any setback here, and with a few weeks to go before the season opener it's wise to shut the veteran down. Allen is expected to be ready for the start of the regular season.

Back to Top


4. OAK - QB Derek Carr more comfortable with Jon Gruden

Source: ProFootballTalk.com - Michael David Smith

Oakland Raiders QB Derek Carr said Thursday, Aug. 15, he is feeling more comfortable talking with head coach Jon Gruden this year than last. 'Year 2, we're having different level of conversations,' Carr said. 'I have two offseasons under my belt, almost two training camps under my belt, I have a full year of experience under my belt, of knowing what checks he wants, what he wants me to get to, what his thought process is on third-and-short, on second-and-short, I know what routes he wants me checking to versus different looks. I'm doing my best just to execute this difficult offense. There's just so much on the quarterback's plate that it's different from some of the other systems that I've been in.'

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

Carr has playmakers around him on offense, so it's up to him to translate that into production and points. Getting comfortable with Gruden and his high expectations is nothing but a good thing. Carr could easily outperform his current ADP of QB23 (14.07) in 12-team PPR leagues.

Back to Top


5. DAL - RB Ezekiel Elliott staying in game shape

Source: ESPN - Adam Schefter

Dallas Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott's weight is in the low 220s, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter, Thursday, Aug. 15. It's Elliott's lowest weight since his rookie year, a source adds. Elliott remains away from the team during a contract holdout but will be ready to play as soon as he signs.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

It sounds like being out of shape because of an extended holdout is not a worry for Elliott.

Back to Top


6. SEA - RB Chris Carson the clear No. 1

Source: NBC Sports Northwest - Joe Fann

Seattle Seahawks RB Chris Carson is the clear No. 1 back, and he could see two-thirds of the workload, in the opinion of NBC Sports Northwest's Joe Fann.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

Carson's ADP is stealing right now. He's available in the fourth and fifth round of drafts, but has an outlook similar to third round backs, with second round upside. He finished 2018 with his strongest performances to date.

Back to Top


7. NYJ - Le'Veon Bell to sit again

Source: ProFootballTalk.com - Josh Alper

New York Jets RB Le'Veon Bell will not play in the preseason game Thursday, Aug. 15.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

The Jets are taking it easy on Bell since he sat out the entire 2018 season. He might get some work in the dress rehearsal for the regular season aka Week 3 of the preseason.

Back to Top


8. GB - QB Aaron Rodgers ruled out

Source: Packers.com

Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers (back) will not play in the preseason game Thursday, Aug. 15, because of back tightness.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

No need to force Rodgers out there. The team says holding Rodgers out is a precautionary move.

Back to Top


9. HOU - WR Will Fuller wants to play in preseason

Source: Houston Chronicle - Aaron Wilson

Houston Texans WR Will Fuller (knee) said he hopes to receive some playing time this preseason so he can knock off some of the rust.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

Fuller only made it through seven games in 2018 before this knee injury shut him down for the year. He's talented, has a great connection with QB Deshaun Watson and can be one of the best deep threats in the game when healthy. Fuller has a current ADP of WR33 (7.05) in 12-team PPR leagues.

Back to Top


10. CLE - WR Odell Beckham sits again

Source: The Cleveland Plain Dealer - Mary Kay Cabot

Cleveland Browns WR Odell Beckham Jr. (hip) did not participate in practice Thursday, Aug. 15.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

No worries here. Beckham is not worried about this hip injury and he would be playing if it was the regular season. He's good to go for Week 1.

Back to Top


11. CLE - TE David Njoku remains sidelined

Source: The Cleveland Plain Dealer - Mary Kay Cabot

Cleveland Browns TE David Njoku (knee) did not participate in practice Thursday, Aug. 15.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

The Browns may just be using caution here. Njoku's knee has been an issue for a couple of days. We'll see if he can get back into action next week.

Back to Top


12. NE - WR Maurice Harris misses practice

Source: ESPN.com - Mike Reiss

New England Patriots WR Maurice Harris (undisclosed) did not participate in practice Thursday, Aug. 15.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

The injury is undisclosed, so there's no way of knowing what is going on or what kind of recovery he's facing. Most reports indicate Harris has been the best wide receiver at Patriots camp. We want to see him on the field but will have to wait.

Back to Top


13. NE - WR Demaryius Thomas does some work

Source: The Athletic - Jeff Howe

New England Patriots WR Demaryius Thomas (Achilles) was doing full sprints on a side field during practice Thursday, Aug. 15.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

Thomas is a bit of a wild card in the Patriots WR corps. If healthy, he could become a favorite target of Tom Brady -- especially in the red zone. However, Thomas has struggled to stay healthy in recent years and is not quite the same player he used to be. We'll watch him as training camp and the preseason rolls on.

Back to Top


14. IND - Daurice Fountain injury update

Source: NFL Network - Ian Rapoport

Updating a previous story, Indianapolis Colts WR Daurice Fountain (leg) suffered a dislocated and fractured ankle Thursday, Aug. 15. He's expected to have surgery right away.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

Bad news for the young player here. Fountain is done for the year with this injury and faces an uncertain future as he recovers. He's set to be an ERFA in 2020.

Back to Top


15. CLE - Trio working on side with minor injuries

Source: The Chronicle-Telegram - Scott Petrak

Cleveland Browns DT Devaroe Lawrence (knee), S Juston Burris (hamstring) and RB Dontrell Hilliard (hamstring) are working on the side during practice Thursday, Aug. 15.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

Watch Hilliard to see how long this hamstring injury has him working on the side. He's a talented player who should fill in as a pass-catching option behind Nick Chubb.

Back to Top


16. CAR - WR Curtis Samuel causing coverage issues

Source: Charlotte Observer - Brendan Marks

Carolina Panthers WR Curtis Samuel has been 'practically impossible to cover' in training camp, according to Brendan Marks of the Charlotte Observer. Head coach Ron Rivera said Samuel is 'light years ahead' of where he has been in past training camps.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

Samuel could make a leap this year, and Fantasy GMs can scoop him up at a good value -- for now. He had one touchdown every six touches in 2018, and he is looking for a larger role in 2019. Samuel is a mismatch every time he's on the field and one of the most explosive players in the game today. He's got a current ADP of WR38 (8.06) in 12-team PPR leagues.

Back to Top


17. MIA - Nick O'Leary looking like Dolphins' best TE

Source: The Miami Herald - Armando Salguero

Miami Dolphins TE Nick O'Leary is the team's best pass-catching option at the position, according to Armando Salguero of The Miami Herald.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

This has been the consistent word out of Dolphins camp. While O'Leary is playing well, second-year TE Mike Gesicki continues to struggle both with blocking and pass-catching.

Back to Top


18. MIN - TE Irv Smith impressing with blocking

Source: NFL Network - Tom Pelissero

Minnesota Vikings rookie TE Irv Smith has been surprising coaches with his blocking, according to assistant head coach Gary Kubiak, Thursday, Aug. 15.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

Smith is a good all-around tight end, but he's had some struggles this offseason. He'll work into the mix as a reserve player behind starter Kyle Rudolph. We'll continue to monitor Smith in dynasty formats.

Back to Top


19. CLE - WR Rashard Higgins in line to be WR3

Source: BrownsZone - Scott Petrak

Cleveland Browns WR Rashard Higgins is the leading candidate to be the team's third wide receiver during WR Antonio Callaway's suspension, according to Scott Petrak of BrownsZone.com.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

Higgins has great chemistry with Baker Mayfield and he'll get favorable matchups while defense are worried more about Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr. He's worth a late round flier in deep leagues.

Back to Top


20. PIT - WR Donte Moncrief back at practice

Source: ProFootballTalk.com - Josh Alper

Pittsburgh Steelers WR Donte Moncrief (finger) had not practiced for six straight days with a broken ring finger before returning to the field Wednesday, Aug. 14.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

Moncrief appears to be penciled as the #2 receiver in Pittsburgh despite the injury but James Washington and Diontae Johnson will play a role along with one of Eli Rogers or Ryan Switzer in the slot.

Back to Top


21. MIA - WR Isaiah Ford impressing

Source: The Miami Herald - Armando Salguero

Miami Dolphins WR Isaiah Ford has consistently worked with the starters and had a strong week of practice. He's expected to play with the starters in the second preseason game.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

Ford was a Matt Waldman favorite and the regime change in Miami gives him an opening to make the team. It sounds like he is taking advantage of it.

Back to Top


22. MIA - WR Albert Wilson on the mend

Source: The Miami Herald - Armando Salguero

Miami Dolphins WR Albert Wilson (hip) is hopeful to begin team drills next week, and he is on track to play in Week 1.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

Wilson's return has been slow and he still hasn't built any rapport with the Dolphins new quarterbacks in the team's new offensive system. Kenny Stills could be a big factor in the slot early if Wilson and Jakeem Grant are not yet full speed to open the season.

Back to Top


That'll do it for today, Folks. Thanks for reading and thanks for being part of Footballguys. We'll see you tomorrow with the Update.

Peace,

J