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Footballguys #123 - 8/20 - Andrew Luck To Miss Another Week, Perfect Drafts And News And Notes And MORE

Volume 21, #123 -- Tuesday Night, August 20th, 2019

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Howdy Folks,

Good Wednesday to you.

It's another huge day for content as we race towards drafts happening everywhere. Let's do this.

J

SITE NEWS

A. FREE CONTENT - Mid-August ADP for DRAFT
An in-depth look at Average Draft Position (ADP) from recent DRAFT leagues.

B. Mid-August ADP for FFPC and FPC
Our Clayton Gray with an in-depth look at Average Draft Position from recent Footballguys Players Championship drafts.

C. Critical Tier Drops: Quarterbacks
Our Chad Parsons looks at identifying the key value drop off points among 2019 quarterbacks.

D. True Fantasy Points: 2019 Quarterback Projections
Our Danny Tuccitto with a stats-based guide for separating skill from luck in quarterback projections.

E. Average Auction Values
Our Jeff Pasquino dives into summarizing average auction values for 2019.

F. Defensive Line Tiers
Our Aaron Rudnicki takes a look at the landscape for defensive linemen in 2019 and breaks them up into tiers to help with your IDP draft.

G. Updated - The Gut Check No.479: 2019 Tiers And Confidence Levels
Our Matt Waldman breaks down his 2019 fantasy rankings into tiers and provides a confidence level for the listed players. Updated August 19th.

H. ICYMI - Defensive Team by Committee
Our Jeff Pasquino looks into finding a defensive team by committee for 2019.


1. IND - QB Andrew Luck to sit out practice another week

Source: The Athletic - Zak Keefer

Indianapolis Colts QB Andrew Luck (ankle) will not participate in practice for at least another week, according to head coach Frank Reich, who noted Luck's issue is a matter of 'full-speed movement versus pain threshold.'

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Fantasy GMs are nervous about this Luck injury...and for good reason. Missing another week of practice further puts his status for Week 1 in question. We'll see if Luck can actually get out there for practice during the final week of the preseason.

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2. DAL - Other extensions not imminent for Cowboys?

Source: DallasCowboys.com - David Helman

Dallas Cowboys owner and general manager Jerry Jones said Tuesday, Aug. 20, is doesn't feel like there's any real movement on contract extensions for QB Dak Prescott, RB Ezekiel Elliott or WR Amari Cooper, according to David Helman of DallasCowboys.com. Jones added things could move fast.

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The Cowboys have some big-money deals to hand out, and they are dragging their feet at this time...at least with these three players. On Tuesday, the Cowboys signed LB Jaylon Smith to a new five-year, $64 million extension. We'll see if there's movement on any of the 'big 3' in the near future.

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3. CHI - RB David Montgomery has team swooning

Source: Yahoo! Sports - Terez A. Paylor

Chicago Bears RB David Montgomery has made an instant impression, and the team is 'in love' with him, according to Yahoo Sports' Terez A. Paylor, who just finished visiting the team's training camp. Paylor tweeted that Montgomery is 'a no-nonsense guy who takes football very seriously. The Bears love that, plus his receiving skills & make-you-miss. He will help this team immediately.'

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We love the intent that Montgomery runs with. He's your classic banger who can grind down a defense to get stronger as the game goes on. Montgomery isn't going to win with elusiveness but he wastes little motion as a runner and be be asked to carry a big workload. He should be the lead back for the Bears with Tarik Cohen serving as a pass-catching back.

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4. LAC - WR Dontrelle Inman back in the fold

Source: NFL Network - Ian Rapoport

The Los Angeles Chargers signed free agent WR Dontrelle Inman (Patriots) Tuesday, Aug. 20, according to a source.

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Inman was with the Chargers from 2014-2017 and has plenty of experience catching passes from Philip Rivers. He's now back to compete for a spot on the depth chart behind Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Travis Benjamin.

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5. DEN - TE Noah Fant dealing with ankle sprain

Source: The Athletic - Nicki Jhabvala

Updating a previous report, Denver Broncos TE Noah Fant (ankle) was diagnosed with a 'mild' ankle sprain Tuesday, Aug. 20.

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Fant might miss some time with this injury. He went down with the injury on Monday night against the 49ers. It doesn't seem like a serious injury, but the Broncos should be careful with their 2019 first-round pick. Fant could be a big part of their passing game in 2019.

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6. SF - RB Jerick McKinnon still limited to individual work

Source: The Athletic - David Lombardi

San Francisco 49ers RB Jerick McKinnon (knee) is not expected to take part in team drills this week as he continues to wait for his injured knee to respond to platelet-rich plasma injection he had 17 days ago.

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McKinnon might be able to participate in drills next week, and we think he's unlikely to be ready for the start of the regular season. The 49ers will use Tevin Coleman as their primary back with Matt Breida backing him up. McKinnon might begin the season on Injured Reserve.

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7. PHI - RB Jordan Howard not conceding much

Source: NJ.com - Zack Rosenblatt

Philadelphia Eagles RB Jordan Howard has 'ran the ball quite well throughout camp,' according to NJ.com's Zack Rosenblatt, who concedes that rookie Miles Sanders will 'almost certainly' overtake Howard at some point. However, Rosenblatt expects Howard will stay play a role and be one of the team's top options when it comes to short-yardage situations and in the red zone.

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Howard can be the banger for the team with Sanders working more as a 'lightning' type of back. If you play in a PPR league, then Sanders has more value because of his receiving ability. Howard has a current ADP of RB37 (8.05) and Sanders is at RB28 (6.01) in 12-team PPR leagues.

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8. NE - WR Demaryius Thomas cleared to practice

Source: ESPN.com - Mike Reiss

New England Patriots WR Demaryius Thomas (Achilles) was activated from the Active/Physically Unable to Perform list Tuesday, Aug. 20.

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Getting activated off the PUP list means the Patriots don't think Thomas will miss six weeks to begin the season. He might not be ready for Week 1, but Thomas feels like he could be. With Josh Gordon returning, any potential fantasy value Thomas had (if healthy) takes a hit.

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9. SEA - RB Rashaad Penny eyeing bigger Year 2 role

Source: ESPN.com - Brady Henderson

Seattle Seahawks RB Rashaad Penny has routinely flashed the ability to 'make one-handed grabs with the same ease as some of the NFL's stickiest-fingered receivers' and is expected to be a bigger factor than he was during his rookie season, according to ESPN's Brady Henderson.

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A first-round pick in the 2018 NFL draft, Penny didn't stand out as much as expected during his rookie season. Penny echoed sentiments from Seahawks RB coach Chad Morton that he and Chris Carson can become the same kind of one-two punch the New Orleans Saints enjoyed with Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram over the last two seasons.

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10. ARI - WR Hakeem Butler suffers serious hand injury

Source: NFL Network - Ian Rapoport

Arizona Cardinals WR Hakeem Butler (hand) was diagnosed with an avulsion fracture in his hand and is a candidate for the Reserve/Injured list, according to a source.

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Bad news for the big-bodied rookie here. Butler was working to carve out a spot on the depth chart with fellow rookies Andy Isabella and Keesean Johnson. That trio of rookie is of course behind Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk in the pecking order. Butler is now likely to be shut down for at least half of his rookie season.

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11. DEN - QB Drew Lock out for a while

Source: NFL Network - Ian Rapoport

Denver Broncos QB Drew Lock (thumb) was diagnosed with a badly sprained right thumb Tuesday, Aug. 20. Although he is out indefinitely, he will not require surgery, according to a source.

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Lock thought it was a mild sprain but it turns out to be a little more serious. This changes the Broncos pecking order at quarterback. Kevin Hogan is now more likely to make the 53-man roster as the backup to Joe Flacco. When Lock is healthy, he should take over that spot.

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12. HOU - RB Duke Johnson hits practice field

Source: Houston Chronicle - Aaron Wilson

Houston Texans RB Duke Johnson (hamstring) practiced with his new team for the first time Tuesday, Aug. 20, after being sidelined with a hamstring injury.

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We're excited to see how Johnson is used as the change-of-pace back behind Lamar Miller. Johnson is a fine pass-catcher and he can make plays in space. That gives him flex appeal in PPR leagues. Stay tuned.

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13. DAL - Two Cowboys coming off PUP

Source: ESPNDallas.com - Todd Archer

Dallas Cowboys DE DeMarcus Lawrence (shoulder) and DT Tyrone Crawford (hip) are expected to come off the Physically Unable to Perform list Tuesday, Aug. 20.

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Good news for Lawrence (and Crawford) here. The plan all along was to ease Lawrence into action so they could have him ready for the start of the regular season. That plan is on track.

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14. MIN - WR Olabisi Johnson showing versatility

Source: ESPN.com - Courtney Cronin

Minnesota Vikings WR Olabisi Johnson's versatility as a receiver and ability to play special teams have earned him more playing time, according to head coach Mike Zimmer. 'He's a guy that can play multiple spots, and I think the more he has done that, the more he's been able to get involved in the offense,' Zimmer said.

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Zimmer was originally disappointed with the 2019 seventh-round pick out of Colorado State. Earlier in camp, reports surfaced that Olabisi was struggling with picking up the offense. That no longer seems to be the case, and Olabisi could push for a spot on the 53-man roster. The Vikings are looking for an upgrade at the No. 3 receiver behind Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs.

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15. GB - Jake Kumerow pushing for time

Source: ESPN.com - Rob Demovsky

Green Bay Packers WR Jake Kumerow is 'in line for a significant role' this season, according to Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com, and QB Aaron Rodgers said Kumerow is the type of receiver he likes working with. 'He's just a very smart guy, cerebral guy, and you guys know I love playing with those kind of guys,' Rodgers said.

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This has been a consistent drumbeat all offseason long. Kumerow is a dynasty prospect we've stashed in deeper leagues, but he could carve out a larger role than expected in 2019. He could provide Rodgers with a consistent target as a No. 3 or No. 4 receiver for the Packers this season.

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16. PHI - WR DeSean Jackson thriving in Philly

Source: ESPN.com - Tim McManus

Philadelphia Eagles WR DeSean Jackson has made 'at least one splash play' during each practice, according to to Tim McManus of ESPN.com, and McManus believes Jackson is going to 'do some damage this season.'

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It's just like old times. Jackson returns to the Eagles this year to be the deep threat for Carson Wentz. That role and his skill set make Jackson a flex-worthy player for your fantasy team. Jackson has a current ADP of WR48 (10.06) in 12-team PPR leagues.

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17. JAX - DJ Chark standing out

Source: ESPN.com - Michael DiRocco

Jacksonville Jaguars WR DJ Chark has been 'the most impressive receiver' during training camp, according to Michael DiRocco of ESPN.com.

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The Jaguars may not have a high-powered passing attack, but they do have a talented group of receivers. Chark has speed to burn and can blow by defenders downfield with ease. While Dede Westbrook is getting drafted as a WR3/flex play for Fantasy GMs, Chark is currently not getting drafted in 12-team PPR leagues on average. That means you can grab him with the last pick if you want a 'lottery ticket' wide receiver or just keep Chark on your waiver wire speed dial at the start of the season.

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18. CLE - Derrick Willies working with starters

Source: ESPN - Jake Trotter

Cleveland Browns WR Derrick Willies has worked as a starter in three-receiver sets during training camp. 'You can tell he was working in the offseason and showed up ready for camp,' QB Baker Mayfield said.

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Willies has a great size/speed combination, measuring in at 6'4" 210 pounds. He runs fast, jumps high and can make big plays downfield. We'll continue to monitor the former Texas Tech receiver in super deep dynasty formats.

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19. BAL - TE Mark Andrews thriving with QB

Source: ESPN.com - Jamison Hensley

Baltimore Ravens TE Mark Andrews has been a 'touchdown monster' during training camp, according to Jamison Hensley of ESPN.com, and offensive coordinator Greg Roman said Andrews and QB Lamar Jackson are building a special relationship. 'The chemistry he's developing with Lamar, that's something you can't manufacture,' Roman said.

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Andrews built strong chemistry with Jackson last year when they were both rookies. He was a favorite target of Baker Mayfield in college at Oklahoma, and Andrews has looked like Jackson's favorite according to camp reports coming out of Baltimore in training camp. Consider the second-year tight end a TE2 for fantasy purposes, and clearly has has low-end TE1 upside because of that connection.

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20. NE - WR Jakobi Meyers impressing Tom Brady

Source: ESPNBoston.com - Mike Reiss

New England Patriots WR Jakobi Meyers has 'taken advantage of his opportunities,' according to QB Tom Brady. 'The football doesn't care how much experience you have,' Brady said. 'It just knows that when I let that ball go, it's got to be in the hands of the guy who it's intended for.'

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Meyers was consistent in college at North Carolina State as a slot receiver. He's not crazy athletic but Meyers knows how to get open on underneath routes. We'll monitor him in super deep dynasty formats.

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21. MIA - Bright future for WR Preston Williams?

Source: ESPN.com - Cameron Wolfe

Miami Dolphins WR Preston Williams 'can be special,' according to CB Xavien Howard. 'There's so much room for improvement with him, but he's going to be a No. 1 receiver one day,' Howard said.

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Character flags caused Williams to go undrafted but the talent he possesses is off the charts. A transfer from Tennessee, Williams put up strong tape in his lone season with Colorado State. Williams has a size/speed/athleticism combination that reminds some in the scouting community of Martavis Bryant. If healthy and focused, Williams could be quite the steal for the Dolphins. Scoop him up in dynasty formats.

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That'll do it for today, Folks. Thanks for reading and thanks for being part of Footballguys. We'll see you tomorrow with the Update.

Peace,

J