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Footballguys #81 - 7/9 - 3 Reasons Why Derrius Guice Will Disappoint, News And Notes And MORE

Volume 21, #81 -- Tuesday Night, July 9th, 2019

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Howdy Folks,

Good Wednesday to you. It's another big day of content as we roll into July with new content plus the News and Notes you need. Let's go.

J

SITE NEWS

A. Learning from History: Saquon Barkley
What can the past tell us about how Saquon Barkley's career is likely to turn out? Our Adam Harstad takes a look.

B. 3 Reasons Why Derrius Guice Will Disappoint
Our Daniel Simpkins with a detailed look at Derrius Guice's fantasy prospects for the 2019 season.

C. Beginner's Guide to Fantasy Football, Part 4: Starting Lineups
Our beginner's series continues. Our Alessandro Miglio looks into starting lineups for fantasy leagues.


1. CAR - QB Cam Newton to be full go at camp

Source: Charlotte Observer - Brendan Marks

Carolina Panthers QB Cam Newton (shoulder) is slated to be a full participant when training camp opens July 24. Newton struggled with soreness and tightness in his right shoulder stemming from scar tissue and cartilage damage that built up after his surgery for a torn rotator cuff.

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It's been all good news for Newton during this offseason. Newton had the shoulder cleaned out in the offseason and it was revealed the cartilage damage was much less severe than anticipated. He's changed his throwing motion in an effort to be less stressful on the joint. If healthy, Newton is a low-end QB1 for Fantasy GMs. His current ADP is QB11 (9.06) in 12-team PPR leagues.

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2. SF - QB Jimmy Garoppolo set for training camp

Source: ProFootballTalk.com - Charean Williams

San Francisco 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo (knee) expects to participate in full workouts during right away, according to Charean Williams of Pro Football Talk.

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The 49ers as a whole are in make-or-break mode...or at least they're getting close to it in 2019. Head coach Kyle Shanahan needs to start winning as he has a 10-22 record with the 49ers over the last two years. That comes down to Garoppolo staying healthy for the first time in his career. He's played nine games for the 49ers in two seasons. Fantasy GMs are taking a chance on Garoppolo at QB18 (12.04) in 12-team PPR leagues.

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3. DEN - WR Courtland Sutton set to become Denver's WR1

Source: 9News.com - Mike Klis

Denver Broncos WR Courtland Sutton has a 'great chance' to meet his own expectations and become the team's No. 1 receiver based on his offseason work with Joe Flacco, according to Mike Klis of 9News.com.'I'm excited going into this season knowing that I am going to get to be the No. 1 and I'll get all of the looks and all of the pressure,'' Sutton said.

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Fantasy GMs need to know there's a changing of the guard at the WR position in Denver. Emmanuel Sanders, when he's fully recovered from his 2018 Achilles' injury, is likely to be the No. 2 receiver for the Broncos with Sutton getting the top spot. Sutton has worked on his subtlety and nuance as a route runner this offseason to go along with his already great size/speed combination. The Broncos are a run-heavy offense, but Sutton provides Fantasy GMs with WR3 upside. His current ADP is WR45 (10.03) in 12-team PPR leagues.

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4. IND - TE Jack Doyle being patient with recovery

Source: CNHI Sports Indiana - George Bremer

Indianapolis Colts TE Jack Doyle (kidney) is reportedly happy with his progress from the kidney procedure he had late last season, but he is planning on being patient with how quickly he returns to the field.'I really am trying to take it one day at a time, not rushing anything. But I'm happy with where I'm at and happy with the progress I've made. It's definitely going in the right direction, and when it's time to get back out there, I'll be excited to be back out there. I promise you that,' Doyle said.

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No hurries, no worries here with the veteran tight end. Doyle lost 25 pounds during the process and is working to regain the weight the right way. He's hoping to be back for training camp.

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5. NYJ - WR Jamison Crowder poised for big season?

Source: New York Post - Brian Costello

New York Jets WR Jamison Crowder had an 'impressive spring' and 'looked fully healthy' during the offseason, according to Brian Costello of the New York Post.

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Poised for a 'big' season might be an overstatement. Poised for a 'good' season...that seems to be more reasonable. We love Crowder's ability to get open and provide his quarterback a reliable target on underneath routes, but he's the No. 3 receiver for the Jets behind Robby Anderson and Quincy Enunwa. Add in TE Chris Herndon and oh yeah, RB Le'Veon Bell and you can see how the targets could be spread a little thin for Crowder. Projecting him for around 50 catches in 2019 seems fair.

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6. NE - TE Rob Gronkowski works out with Tom Brady

Source: MassLive.com - Andrew Callahan

Former New England Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski worked out in a private throwing session with Patriots QB Tom Brady Monday, July 8.

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We all want to know if Gronkowski is officially retired or if he could make a comeback later in the year. This workout is only going to fuel rumors that he could return. The Patriots could certainly use him as they've got Matt LaCosse as the top tight end on their depth chart while veteran Ben Watson is suspended the first four games of the 2019 season. On the other hand, many see this purely as two friends catching up in California. Don't expect this speculation to die down any time soon.

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7. PHI - QB Carson Wentz putting in work

Source: NFL.com - Kevin Patra

Philadelphia Eagles QB Carson Wentz (back) has been putting in work rehabbing this offseason after having his last two seasons cut short by different injuries, according to OT Lane Johnson. 'I love it, every day when I go in the building, all I see is him in there before everybody else, rehabbing, doing whatever it takes.' Johnson said of Wentz. 'I just think he's really on a different mental state than he's ever been as far as training and ignoring distractions and really trying to be the best player he is. So, I just see that worker and a guy who is about to do some big things this season.'

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Wentz has not played a full 16-game regular season since his rookie year in 2016. He needs to stay healthy and play like we all know he can so the Eagles can make a postseason run. If healthy, Wentz could finish the year as a top-5 fantasy quarterback. He's currently going off the board at QB8 (8.01) in 12-team fantasy leagues.

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8. CLE - RB Duke Johnson moves on from agent

Source: NFL Network - Ian Rapoport

Cleveland Browns RB Duke Johnson has parted with his agent, Kristin Campbell of 40 Sports & Entertainment Group, amid a trade request.

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It's an ...interesting move for Johnson to say the least. The Browns have shown little interest in trading away Johnson at this time. First, they need him as a backup to Nick Chubb while Kareem Hunt serves his eight-game suspension. Second, there are rumors they haven't really gotten much interest in him at all. Johnson has talent but his skill set is not that unique in the NFL and it would take an injury with another team for someone to really have legitimate interest.

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9. PHI - RB Jordan Howard primed for short-yardage role?

Source: PhillyVoice.com - Jimmy Kempski

Philadelphia Eagles RB Jordan Howard is expected to be sort of the 'meat and potatoes' back who will see the 'lion's share' of work in short yardage and in the four-minute offense, according to Jimmy Kempski of the Philly Voice.

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That sounds about right. Howard should be the lead ball-carrier for the Eagles in 2019, but he's going to work in a RBBC with at least rookie Miles Sanders (and maybe another back). He's got a current ADP of RB38 (8.05) in 12-team PPR leagues.

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10. MIA - RB Kalen Ballage struggled catching the ball

Source: The Miami Herald - Barry Jackson

Miami Dolphins RB Kalen Ballage appeared unnatural as a receiver out of the backfield during offseason practices, according to beat writer Barry Jackson, and he struggled with several balls thrown in his direction.

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That's a bit unusual given Ballage's skill set he showed in college at Arizona State. He's a big and swift runner who can also line up as a slot receiver if need be. It sounds like he needs to clean up his receiving game in training camp and the preseason. He was a natural receiver in college, so we're not sure why he's reportedly struggling in that department this year.

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11. NYJ - WR Robby Anderson to run wider selection of routes

Source: New York Daily News - Manish Mehta

New York Jets WR Robby Anderson will be more involved in the offense in 2019, according to head coach Adam Gase. 'We're just going to keep trying to think of ways to get him the ball, ways to create variety in his routes,' Gase said. 'Instead of just doing one or two things, maybe we can open that thing up to five, six, seven things to where he's a threat on multiple levels whether it be underneath, intermediate or down the field.' Anderson said his goal is to become 'the best receiver in the NFL.'

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Anderson should be able to thrive under Gase. Former Jets OC Jeremy Bates never really knew what to do with the veteran receiver. Anderson is a WR3 with upside for Fantasy GMs in 2019. He has a current ADP of WR31 (7.04) in 12-team PPR leagues.

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12. PHI - RB Miles Sanders has work to do

Source: PhillyVoice.com - Jimmy Kempski

Philadelphia Eagles RB Miles Sanders needs to work on his ball security, pass protection and receiving ability, in the opinion to Jimmy Kempski of the Philly Voice. Kempski also notes Sanders is behind in his development after having missed all of spring practices with a nagging hamstring injury.

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Sanders has big-play ability and can be a dangerous satellite back for the Eagles behind starter Jordan Howard. He needs to hang onto the rock and stay healthy if he wants that rather large opportunity in 2019. We'll see if the rookie from Penn State can impress during training camp and the preseason.

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13. CHI - RB Mike Davis did work on zone read runs in 2018

Source: Pro Football Focus

Chicago Bears RB Mike Davis - as a member of the Seattle Seahawks last season - averaged 4.9 yards per carry on 53 zone-read runs, topping Chris Carson's 4.07 mark on 88 attempts and Rashaad Penny's 4.71 average on 34 carries, per Pro Football Focus.

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Davis has always been a talented runner but his production in the NFL has been inconsistent (just like it was for him in college at South Carolina). He'll work in a RBBC with Tarik Cohen and rookie David Montgomery. Davis is not getting drafted right now, while Montgomery has a current ADP of RB21 (4.03) and Cohen at RB28 (5.12) in 12-team PPR leagues.

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14. GB - Green Bay taking a look at Jalen Thompson

Source: DraftAnalyst.com - Tony Pauline

North Carolina State S Jalen Thompson visited the Green Bay Packers following his workout Monday, July 8, in order to complete their medical evaluations - the results of which will be shared with the other 31 teams - and interviews on him prior to the supplemental draft on Wednesday, July 10, according to DraftAnalyst.com's Tony Pauline.

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The Packers could end up spending a late-round pick on Thompson in Wednesday's Supplemental Draft. He's a bit smaller than the team usually likes in their secondary, but Thompson is fast, is a sound tackler and has good ball skills. He seems to have generated the most interest out of any player that declared for the Supplemental Draft.

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15. DET - S Glover Quin retires

Source: ESPN.com - Michael Rothstein

Free-agent FS Glover Quin (Lions) announced his retirement Tuesday, July 9.

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No surprise here. Quin was released by the Lions back in February and has been contemplating retirement ever since. A fourth-round pick of the Texans in the 2009 NFL draft, Quin had his best seasons with the Lions including a Pro Bowl selection for his 2014 performance. In 10 years, Quin played 159 games, compiled 579 tackles, 4.0 sacks, 10 forced fumbles, 24 interceptions and 87 passes defensed.

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16. WAS - TE Jordan Reed needs to stay healthy

Source: NBC Sports Washington - Ryan Homler

Washington Redskins TE Jordan Reed was clearly not healthy in 2018, playing in 13 games while playing through multiple injuries. When he is 100 percent, he might be the most dynamic receiver on the roster.

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Everyone knows that Reed is incredibly talented as a receiver...and everyone already knows that he has an injury history that reads like Infinite Jest. Reed is a boom/bust player for Washington who provides plenty of upside...along with plenty of risk...as a low-end TE2 in fantasy leagues.

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17. WAS - WR Terry McLaurin impressing early on

Source: NBC Sports Washington - Ryan Homler

Washington Redskins WR Terry McLaurin was impressive during offseason work, and he might end up getting a shot at a starting job on the outside opposite WR Josh Doctson.

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We love McLaurin's upside and value in dynasty formats. The Ohio State receiver has some nuance to his route-running game and certainly has the speed to be a threat deep in the pros. He was a standout player during the week of practice at the Senior Bowl earlier this year and we'll monitor him in dynasty leagues to see if his polish can turn into production in the NFL.

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18. WAS - WR Paul Richardson could be deep threat

Source: NBC Sports Washington - JP Finlay

Washington Redskins WR Paul Richardson (knee, shoulder) could be a deep threat for the team if he is able to stay healthy this season. He did not participate in team drills during offseason workouts.

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This always seems to be the case with Richardson. He's dealt with the injury bug dating all the way back to his college days at the University of Colorado. Richardson has speed to burn and tracks passes with ease over his shoulder. Talent has never been an issue, but seemingly constant knee problems have plagued his football career. He only made it through seven games in 2018, his first season with Washington.

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That'll do it for today, Folks. Thanks for reading and thanks for being part of Footballguys. We'll see you tomorrow with the Update.

Peace,

J