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Footballguys #93 - 7/21 - Avoid These 11 Quarterbacks, Plus News And Notes And More

Volume 21, #93 -- Sunday Night, July 21st, 2019

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Howdy Folks,

Good Monday to you. We've got some killer new content today as our "Value" series starts rolling out. We tell you the players we see undervalued and overvalued as you head towards your Drafts. Plus we've got the News and Notes you need so let's go.

J

SITE NEWS

A. FREE CONTENT - 11 Overrated Quarterbacks
We polled our Footballguys staff members and asked them to discuss quarterbacks who are overvalued.

B. 14 Value Plays at Quarterback
The Footballguys staff finds value at the quarterback position.

C. 7 Deep Sleepers at Quarterback
The Footballguys staff digs deep for sleepers at quarterback.


1. KC - WR Tyreek Hill a trade candidate?

Source: ProFootballTalk.com - Mike Florio

Kansas City Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill could be traded early next season if a contract extension can't be worked out, according to Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com.

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The Chiefs have to pay Chris Jones and eventually Patrick Mahomes, so investing top of the market money in Hill while they have Mecole Hardman developing might not be the most attractive choice in cap management. Hill's value would obviously drop if he is anywhere but Kansas City, but that isn't a big concern for his value this year. The Chiefs tagged Dee Ford and then traded him this offseason, and they could pursue a similar strategy with Hill.

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2. CIN - RB Joe Mixon primed for huge season

Source: Pro Football Focus - Evan McPhillips

Cincinnati Bengals RB Joe Mixon is expected to have a breakout season is new coach Zac Taylor's outside-zone running scheme, in the opinion of Evan McPhillips of Pro Football Focus.

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The Bengals did suffer a blow on the offensive line when they lost first-round pick Jonah Williams, but overall the new offense should help Mixon, and he could be a more dangerous downfield receiver if he is used the way Todd Gurley was in Los Angeles while Taylor was on the staff. Mixon is worth consideration in the late first.

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3. DAL - RB Ezekiel Elliott planning trip?

Source: ProFootballTalk.com - Mike Florio

Dallas Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott is believed to be making plans for an out-of-country trip to begin a holdout as his teammates report to training camp in the coming week, a source said Saturday, July 20.

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Elliott still has to report by early August to get his accrued year and become a free agent next year, so we expect this to be a non-story in a few weeks.

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4. ATL - WR Julio Jones to report to camp

Source: MMQB - Albert Breer

Atlanta Falcons WR Julio Jones will report to camp with his teammates Sunday, July 21. Jones is seeking a new contract, and owner Arthur Blank said the team is amenable to giving him one.

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Jones deserves to be at the top of the wide receiver pay scale and the Falcons will save money if they lock him in now, but there's no sign that a new contract is impending at the moment.

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5. NE - WR Demaryius Thomas placed on PUP list

Source: ESPN.com - Field Yates

New England Patriots WR Demaryius Thomas (Achilles) is on the Active/Physically Unable to Perform list entering his first season with the Pats.

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This was completely expected. If Thomas can make the opening day roster it will be an upset. He is more likely to either be released or stay on the PUP list during the season. His health and Josh Gordon's status with the league will be key to first round pick N'keal Harry's redraft value.

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6. NE - RB Sony Michel unable to perform

Source: ESPN.com - Field Yates

New England Patriots RB Sony Michel (knee) opens training camp on the Active/Physically Unable to Perform list after undergoing a procedure on his knee this offseason.

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Michel needs to get back on the field soon if he is going to hold off Damien Harris. Harris is roughly on the same talent level as Michel as an inside runner and he should be a lot more durable. Every day Michel stays on the PUP should move him down and Harris up in ADP.

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7. HOU - WR DeAndre Hopkins on PUP list

Source: ESPN.com - Field Yates

Houston Texans WR DeAndre Hopkins (shoulder) will begin training camp on the Active/Physically Unable to Perform list.

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Hopkins had offseason surgery, so this isn't too alarming. If he isn't on the field by mid-August then we could revise that outlook, but for now this is only something to monitor.

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8. HOU - DE J.J. Watt opens camp on PUP

Source: ESPN.com - Field Yates

Houston Texans DE J.J. Watt (knee) was placed on the Active/Physically Unable to Perform list Sunday, July 21.

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Watt should come off of the PUP list soon after having offseason knee surgery. If he stays on the list until well into August, then it will be time to worry, but for now this is only something to monitor.

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9. HOU - WR Will Fuller likely to be ready for opener

Source: Houston Chronicle - Aaron Wilson

Houston Texans WR Will Fuller (knee) is expected to be completely recovered from his torn anterior cruciate ligament in time to play against the New Orleans Saints in Week 1, according to Aaron Wilson of the Houston Chronicle.

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We probably won't get to see Fuller in the preseason, but will be monitoring his practice reports closely. He has nearly been a WR1 for fantasy when healthy and receiving passes from Deshaun Watson, but the healthy part has been a sticking point. He is very cheap in drafts for a playing with his per game scoring history, but it's also possible that he is passed by Keke Coutee in the target pecking order if Coutee has a strong, healthy summer. Both Texans complementary wide receivers present upside at current ADP.

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10. HOU - Big role coming for D'Onta Foreman?

Source: Houston Chronicle - Aaron Wilson

Houston Texans RB D'Onta Foreman's performance this year will be a 'season-long audition' to show he deserves to be the lead back in 2020, according to Aaron Wilson of the Houston Chronicle.

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The Texans backfield is projecting to be a committee and it might not have enough production to support two weekly fantasy starters. Lamar Miller will need Foreman to be a flop to hold down the kind of workload he had last year, but Foreman might not be a hit even if he proves to be recovered from his 2017 achilles tear. It will be difficult to be eager about investing in this backfield.

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11. NE - Isaiah Wynn passes physical

Source: NFL Network - Ian Rapoport

New England Patriots LT Isaiah Wynn (Achilles) passed his physical Sunday, July 21, and will open training camp not on the Physically Unable to Perform list.

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A big sigh of relief from the Patriots, as the team lacks a seasoned swing tackle after Jared Veldheer retired. We'll be watching the reports on Wynn as the team will be relying on him to play a crucial role on the offensive line.

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12. ATL - TE Austin Hooper good to go for camp

Source: ESPN.com - Vaughn McClure

Atlanta Falcons TE Austin Hooper (ankle) will participate in training camp after missing minicamp due to an ankle injury.

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Hooper could be a solid TE1 if he gets the same target share as last year in what should be an even more efficient offense with the return of coordinator Dirk Koetter.

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13. NE - Yodny Cajuste placed on NFI to start camp

Source: ESPN.com - Mike Reiss

New England Patriots OT Yodny Cajuste was placed on the Active/Non-Football Injury list Sunday, July 21, heading into his first NFL training camp.

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Cajuste could be called on for contributions if the starting tackles can't stay healthy and the team doesn't make any significant additions at tackle, but if he's not healthy enough to practice in camp, it will be difficult to trust him as a backup during the regular season.

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14. CHI - RB David Montgomery drawing praise

Source: ChicagoBears.com - Larry Mayer

Chicago Bears RB David Montgomery is drawing praise from his head coach and general manager heading into his first NFL training camp. 'He's just so well-rounded. He can do everything,' said general manager Ryan Pace on Sunday, July 21. 'I think he should get a fair amount of carries in the preseason,' head coach Matt Nagy said.

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Montgomery will share with Tarik Cohen and Mike Davis, but he has a chance to lead the backfield in targets and get the majority of goal line and game finishing carries. He'll need to do that to justify an already optimistic ADP.

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15. CHI - WR Anthony Miller expected to be ready

Source: ChicagoBears.com

Chicago Bears WR Anthony Miller (shoulder) is expected to be ready for the beginning of training camp. 'We expect him to be ready to go but again we're going to be smart about how we build him in,' said general manager Ryan Pace on Sunday, July 21.

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Miller played most of last year with a bum shoulder and could be even better with the issue surgically repaired. The Bears pass offense still has a lot of mouths to feed, so Miller could be very efficient but inconsistent if everyone stays healthy. Mitchell Trubisky should be the main beneficiary of an improved set of targets, assuming he improves in his second year under Matt Nagy.

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16. CHI - TE Trey Burton expected for start of camp

Source: ChicagoBears.com

Chicago Bears TE Trey Burton (hernia) is expected to be ready for the start of training camp, according to head coach Ryan Pace on Sunday, July 21.

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The team will ease him back in, but it should be an uneventful return to action after a routine surgery. Adam Shaheen is the more healthy tight end and could make a bid for more targets if Burton is slow to return, but Burton will remain in the more fantasy friendly role.

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17. HOU - Houston designates 3 more

Source: Houston Texans PR

Houston Texans OLB Jamal Davis II was placed on the Active/Non-Football Illness list Sunday, July 21. NT Walter Palmore and TE Kahale Warring were placed on the Active/Non-Football Injury list.

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Warring was ahead of the development as a very raw athletic tight end, but this could slow down his bid for snaps in his rookie year and help Jordan Thomas's value.

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18. CLE - RB Duke Johnson won't be a distraction

Source: The Cleveland Plain Dealer - Mary Kay Cabot

Cleveland Browns RB Duke Johnson's public trade request won't hinder the team at training camp, according to WR Jarvis Landry. 'It will not be a distraction,' Landry said Friday, July 19. 'Our focus is pretty clear. We want to win a championship and the guys that are here, that's going to help us do that. We start on Thursday. Let's get it done.'

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Johnson's value will go up if he's traded, but there doesn't seem to be a strong market for his services. He does have the potential for a value bump and he's much better than his ADP indicates, so this could be a good time to deal for Johnson in dynasty leagues.

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19. SF - WR Jordan Matthews likely to make roster

Source: The Mercury News - Cam Inman

San Francisco 49ers WR Jordan Matthews is expected to make the 53-man roster along with Dante Pettis, Marquise Goodwin, Jalen Hurd and Deebo Samuel, according to Cam Inman of The Mercury News.

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The 49ers have an embarrassment of riches at wide receiver. The last receiver or two to get cut from their roster should make another team. Matthews, Trent Taylor, Kendrick Bourne and Richie James all have experience but only one or two will make the roster.

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20. DEN - Denver RBs compared to former Falcons duo

Source: The Athletic - Nicki Jhabvala

Denver Broncos RBs Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman remind offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello of former Atlanta Falcons running mates Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman. Coleman has since moved on to the San Francisco 49ers via free agency.

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Freeman is better suited for short yardage carries and carries to finish games, and Lindsay is the better big play threat. Both should be used more as receivers this year. Most signs point to their workloads and fantasy values being closer together than they were last year.

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21. DEN - TE Noah Fant's blocking praised

Source: The Athletic - Nicki Jhabvala

Denver Broncos TE Noah Fant is impressing with his run blocking so far in training camp. 'One of the things I think was undervalued with him ahead of the draft is I think he's an excellent run-blocker,' Broncos offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello said Sunday, July 21.

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Fant's run blocking won't result in fantasy points for him, but it can get him on the field more as a rookie and earn the trust of his coaches. If he can become a clear starter and every down player right out of the gate, Fant could be a low-end TE1 this year.

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22. KC - Still no progress in extension talks for Chris Jones

Source: The Kansas City Star - Sam Mellinger

The Kansas City Chiefs and DT Chris D. Jones have not engaged in recent discussions regarding a contract extension, according to a source. He is entering the final season of his rookie deal.

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Jones might hold out, but has to show up by early August to get the accrued year and become a free agent next year. The team is also switching to a new defensive scheme, so the practice time is more important than a typical year. Chances are Jones will report without a new deal and possibly even get tagged next year if it isn't used on Tyreek Hill.

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23. WAS - Josh Harvey-Clemons to be used in nickel sets

Source: NBC Sports Washington - JP Finlay

Washington Redskins LB Josh Harvey-Clemons is expected to serve as the team's nickel linebacker this year, after bulking up in the offseason.

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The team lost Reuben Foster in the offseason to an injury and didn't bring back Zach Brown. Harvey-Clemons has the potential for an everydown role, but Shaun Dion Hamilton will also have a chance to seize the starting spot. Veteran Jon Bostic will also be in the battle although he won't play on passing downs in any event. Rookie Cole Holcomb is the fastest of the bunch, but probably needs to develop before being considered for playing time.

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24. SEA - WR Jaron Brown likely to start

Source: The Seattle Times - Bob Condotta

Seattle Seahawks WR Jaron Brown will likely enter the 2019 season as a starter in three-receiver sets, according to Bob Condotta of The Seattle Times.

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Brown has good physical tools and experience with Russell Wilson, although he's the most likely to lose snaps and targets if second-round pick DK Metcalf of fourth-round pick Gary Jennings are ready for regular roles this year.

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25. SEA - WR David Moore locked in as starter?

Source: The Seattle Times - Bob Condotta

Seattle Seahawks WR David Moore will open the season as a top-three receiver, according to Bob Condotta of The Seattle Times.

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Moore was showing big play ability at the end of Russell Wilson downfield passes. If DK Metcalf can't stay healthy or isn't ready for a big role at the beginning of the season, Moore will rosterable and maybe even relevant for fantasy leagues. He's a fine late round target to hold at the end of redraft rosters while we wait to see how this shakes out.

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26. HOU - Jordan Thomas the top TE in Houston

Source: Houston Chronicle - Aaron Wilson

Houston Texans TE Jordan M. Thomas enters training camp as the No. 1 tight end on the depth chart.

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Thomas was a good red zone target in his rookie year and his snaps and targets should grow. He is unlikely to be a consistent presence in the box score, but at a position where a touchdown equals a good start, he could be a solid matchup streamer with injury upside if the Texans wideouts have another injury-riddled year.

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27. DEN - Devontae Jackson shines in practice

Source: 104.7 FM Denver - Benjamin Allbright

Denver Broncos RB Devontae Jackson has performed well through the first three days of training camp, according to Benjamin Allbright of 104.7 FM Denver.

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Jackson could make the team as a third or fourth running back because of his return and pass catching ability. Devontae Booker has been only serviceable and will need to fight for his roster spot with a new regime making decisions this year.

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28. DEN - Bigger role for RB Royce Freeman?

Source: 104.7 FM Denver - Benjamin Allbright

Denver Broncos RB Royce Freeman could see a 'bigger market share of carries' this season, specifically near the goal line and in short-yardage situations, according to Benjamin Allbright of 104.7 FM Denver.

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Freeman should be more effective in a zone system than he was last year, and he has had all offseason to show the new regime what he can do while Phillip Lindsay was recovering from wrist surgery. This should look more like a committee than last year's backfield, but if the new offense clicks and Mike Munchak's coaching revitalizes the offensive line, Freeman can be a solid everyweek RB2/Flex play with Lindsay still returning RB2 value.

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That'll do it for today, Folks. Thanks for reading and thanks for being part of Footballguys. We'll see you tomorrow with the Update.

Peace,

J