Coaching Change Analysis: Detroit Lions

Darrell Bevell is replacing Jim Bob Cooter as the new offensive coordinator (OC) this fall in Motown. When asked about the hire, General Manager, Bob Quinn stated, "I think we want a balanced attack, like we talked about before. We want to be able to run the ball, we want to be able to use our quarterback because he has a ton of talent. So, we want to be diverse." Matt Patricia said, "The great thing about Bevell is that he's so adaptive to what is best for the players we have and the quarterback position obviously being the most critical. We'll start there and we'll build and go from there."

Both pointed to Matt Stafford as the starting point for Bevell's design. Since that time, Bevell has stated, "We're going to run the football, we're going to run it very well." Interestingly, compiling those quotes together gives us a glimpse into how Bevell has traditionally helped is quarterbacks - through the run game. Let's dig into Bevell's history for more clues on what to expect in 2019.

Play Volume - No Change

Darrell Bevell and Lions former OC, Jim Bob Cooter, each have averaged about 1,000 plays per season for their careers. Each also averages about 960 attempts.

Jim Bob Cooter Attempt Volume and Splits

Darrell Bevell Attempt Volume and Splits

2019 Projected Attempts: 965

Pass vs. Run Splits - Increase in Running

Over the past 12 seasons, Bevell has been one of the most run happy coaches in the NFL. In that period his team rushing attempts have surpassed passing attempts an astounding 50% of the time. His commitment to the run shines through in every game situation – leading, tied, and trailing.

Bevell did move to a more pass-heavy attack in 2016 and 2017 with Marshawn Lynch no longer shouldering the load.

Cooter, on the other hand, has been one of the pass happiest coaches.

Don’t expect the Lions to reach the point of running more than passing without a running quarterback like Russell Wilson. However, we can expect them to run more than last year.

2019 Projected Splits: 55% Pass (-4%) and 45% Run (+4%)

scheme and personnel utilization notes

Expect the Lions to utilize play-action and challenge the vertical boundaries of the field much more under Bevell. Under Cooter, this offense never eclipsed 20% play-action or 12% deep passes (over 20 yards). Bevell offenses eclipsed both each of the last six seasons minus missing the deep passes by 1% in 2014.

Bevell has targeted a pass catcher more than 22% (prorated per game) on one occasion – Percy Harvin (24%) with Minnesota in 2010. Bevell typically deploys a balanced attack across multiple weapons in the passing game with the top two options each garnering approximately 20% of the targets.

Bevell has never targeted any running back over 11% and has only hit the 20% mark for the tight end one time (2015).

The three-headed running back approach Matt Patricia grew up on is not in Bevell’s vernacular. Bevell historically has utilized one back more often than not. He has gotten to deploy Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch the majority of those seasons which is likely a factor. Monitoring this situation is pivotal to determining Kerryon Johnson’s fantasy value.

Fantasy stock impact

Matthew Stafford – Holding Steady

Expect Stafford’s attempts to fall but anticipate an increase in yards per attempt and touchdowns per attempt. This passing offense will be built around creating big plays in the passing game. This likely nets out as neutral from a fantasy perspective.

Kenny Golladay – Down

Golladay has limitations in his on-field application due to separation and route-running concerns, but that is a separate topic. The issue at hand is Bevell’s 12-year track record showing commitment to balance instead of target hogs. Temper expectations due to an unlikely spike in target share in an offense that will pass less. Efficiency could spike via big plays, but it will be hard to depend on - Marvin Jones is also a solid vertical weapon.

Kerryon Johnson – Up

If Bevell’s historical approach to backfields wins out, it could be a boon to Johnson. At a minimum, more overall rushing attempts for the team is a positive. For a full breakdown on this situation see Johnson’s Player Spotlight.