This might seem like the most uninteresting year to draft quarterbacks in typical start one quarterback leagues, and in some ways, it is (try Superflex/2-QB leagues for a change). There is still advantages to gain over the competition when you consider that Patrick Mahomes II had the biggest gap of any #1 player at his position to the #2 player. Advantages are advantages and even though waiting at quarterback can get you about 20 points in the bank every week at no cost, picking the breakout quarterback can help you beat those teams that waited at quarterback and the breakout quarterbacks will be cheaper than chasing breakouts at other positions. So the glut of options at the position will push everyone down the board and make it easier to get “your guy”. The name of the game is still taking players who will vastly outproduce expectations and there will be a few this year. Good luck finding them.
I've included my opinion on whether a player is undervalued (target), priced correctly, or overvalued (avoid) at conventional wisdom ADP.
The 24 Karat Gold Standard
Regression? What Regression?
Patrick Mahomes II - Priced Correctly
With Tyreek Hill facing no suspension, Sammy Watkins healthy and balling out, and the addition of Mecole Hardman, Mahomes might actually take a step forward from his astronomical 2018 numbers.
14 Karat Gold
If Deshaun Watson had an offensive line, the gap between him and Mahomes might be smaller than the gap between him and the #3 quarterback.
Deshaun Watson- Priced Correctly
If we ever get to see Watson play most of the season with a healthy Keke Coutee and Will Fuller, he could be the clear #2 overall fantasy quarterback. The offensive line is a worry, but the running game isn’t going to be leading this offense any time soon.
POTENTIAL Fantasy difference makers
You have to take on risk in this tier, but with it comes the reward of a potential top-three quarterback and the ability to be the #1 fantasy quarterback in their best weeks.
Aaron Rodgers - Slight Value
He looked like a quarterback in decline last year, but he has a new coaching staff and he was playing hurt for a good part of the year. With potential development from his young receivers and meshing with coaching that will make his job easier, he could return to top fantasy form.
Kyler Murray - Target
The Air Raid show with Murray and Kingsbury could be a flop, but betting on NFL defenses to be slow to adjust to innovation is usually a good bet. We’ve never seen a quarterback that is a top passing and running threat in a scheme that maximizes his numbers. A top-three finish with a good gap between him and the rest of the QB1 pack is possible for Murray.
Carson Wentz - Target
Wentz is healthy, he’s playing behind one of the best offensive lines in football, and he has the best array of weapons he has enjoyed in his career by a large margin. He could give everyone outside of Mahomes a run for their money this year.
Baker Mayfield - Priced Correctly
It’s easy to get excited about what Mayfield could offer in a Todd Monken offense with Odell Beckham. The offensive line has a few questionable spots and they could become more balanced when Kareem Hunt returns after an eight-game suspension, but Mayfield offers as much upside as a second-year quarterback who adds little as a runner can.
High Floor QB1
This group doesn’t have the risk of the group above, but with the exception of Newton, doesn’t offer the same kinds of rewards, either.
Cam Newton - Target
Newton is a perennial strong QB1 and it appears his shoulder woes are behind him. His young receivers are maturing and he gets Greg Olsen. The offensive line woes appear to be fixed. He is a slam dunk pick at ADP.
Matt Ryan - Priced Correctly
Ryan should benefit from an improved offensive line and the return of Dirk Koetter as offensive coordinator. He probably won’t finish in the top three, but he won’t finish outside of the top ten either.
Russell Wilson - Priced Correctly
Wilson will be limited by low volume, but maybe not early in the season when the team will be without their best defensive lineman for six games while they face the Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Arizona, Los Angeles Rams, and Cleveland offenses. Don’t be surprised if he’s top five after six weeks.
Andrew Luck - Avoid
Luck’s calf injury is becoming a non-trivial issue and it’s possible that the Colts defense will get them more comfortable wins and less passing volume for Luck. He’s still very safe, but his ceiling is lower than some of his ADP peers.
High Ceiling “Wait On” Quarterback
You’ll like the names ranked 11-20 on everyone’s boards no matter how you rank them. This group has a higher season-long ceiling, but a lower floor.
Lamar Jackson - Target
There have been lots of indications that the Ravens offense will have more passing dimensions this year while leaving Jackson’s rushing upside intact. An opening trio of Miami, Arizona, and Kansas City on the schedule makes him the most likely quarterback outside of the top ten to get off to a hot start.
Mitchell Trubisky - Target
He was running at a top 6-8 pace before his injury last year, and he should be even better in year two under Matt Nagy. The offense has also added more pass-catching backs and the top two receivers should be healthier this year.
Jameis Winston - Priced Correctly
Winston is paired with an ideal head coach in “no risk it, no biscuit” Bruce Arians. He’ll have to pass a lot to carry a team with a poor defense and questionable running game.
Josh Allen - Target
Allen was about as good as any quarterback in the fantasy playoffs last year. He gained a #1 receiver (John Brown) and slot machine (Cole Beasley) in the offseason and the new-look offensive line could help make his life easier.
Jimmy Garoppolo - Priced Correctly
If Kyle Shanahan was able to make this offense go without Garoppolo last year, how good can it be with him? The team also added Deebo Samuel in the second round and the young wide receiver corps should be healthier and better this year.
High Floor “Wait On” Quarterback
This group is safe and they are more likely to finish in the top 15 when the dust settles at the end of the season, but finishing in the top 6-8 is a stretch. They have matchup upside during the season, but over the long haul, the ceiling games probably won’t happen frequently enough to make them a true advantage over your competitors.
Jared Goff - Priced Correctly
Goff tailed off last year with the rest of the Rams offense, and the offensive line will feature two new starters, but he’s also getting back Cooper Kupp and added a weapon in Darrell Henderson. Camp reports have been positive, so he could be even better than last year if Sean McVay stays a step ahead of the league schematically
Dak Prescott - Target
Prescott is the discount Cam Newton. He has been a top ten fantasy quarterback basically any time he has been healthy and helming an offense that features Ezekiel Elliott. The offensive line is back together again and he added Randall Cobb and Jason Witten in the offseason, in addition to having his first full offseason with Amari Cooper.
Drew Brees - Avoid
Brees will still be good for some top five weeks, but when the Saints are comfortably in control, he can be bottom five on the week. He just doesn’t offer the season-long upside he did in years past but is still a fine starter if you can handle the peaks and valleys.
Philip Rivers - Priced Correctly
Rivers is consistent as they come, but he lacks big ceiling games. He’ll get Hunter Henry back this year to make up for the loss of Tyrell Williams, but Russell Okung’s pulmonary embolism resolving is key to his stock
Ben Roethlisberger - Avoid
Roethlisberger is due for a drop in attempts this year and he should also take a step back due to the loss of Antonio Brown. He’s still good for a few high ceiling games and seems to have shaken the road/home split that frustrated fantasy players in the past.
Kirk Cousins - Avoid
Cousins could be a lot more efficient and comfortable this year if the offensive line improves, but he’s going to be in a more conservative offense that should lean more on the running game this year.
Quarterback Depth is Absurd this year
You can neglect the position until the very end of your draft and still get a player who should produce at what was a viable clip in years past. This should encourage you to take more risks at the position because even if you pick flames out, the “punishment” is relying on someone from this list from the waiver wire unless some teams carry three quarterbacks.
Tom Brady, NE
Brady lost Rob Gronkowski and only has one proven wide receiver this year. Look for this offense to get even more reliant on running backs this year. He can still throw four touchdowns in any given week, but floor games will be more common.
Marcus Mariota, TEN
Early reports on Mariota are encouraging, but this should still be a conservative offense. He can add value as a runner and gives a higher weekly ceiling than others this low in rankings but is still better off left undrafted.
Andy Dalton, CIN
Dalton has a new offensive mind at the helm who should make things easier for him. But he lost his starting left tackle for the season and his #1 receiver will miss some time. There’s upside here, but there's risk to match.
Matthew Stafford, DET
Stafford is healthy again and he’ll get Marvin Jones back, not to mention the addition of TJ Hockenson. This will still be a run-first team, which means Stafford will only be bye/injury/matchup streamer material.
Sam Darnold, NYJ
Darnold could make a big step in year two if Adam Gase makes things easier for him. He’ll have an improved interior offensive line and a much better wide receiver group than last year if everyone stays healthy.
Derek Carr, OAK
Carr gained Antonio Brown and Tyrell Williams at wide receiver and Trent Brown on the offensive line this year, and he has a shiny new starting running back who can add value in the passing game. Jon Gruden’s offenses have never been laughable, but Carr has to be bolder than last year to matter in fantasy leagues.
2QB/Superflex Depth
Ryan Fitzpatrick, MIA
Fitzpatrick knows how to create fantasy value, but he’s still behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league with a wide receiver group that has more questions than answers. He’ll be better at creating value for his pass-catchers than himself.
Nick Foles, JAX
Foles will vastly improve the Jaguars passing game, but they might not even have two starting quality receivers by NFL standards and the offense will continue to lean on the run more than his arm, so he’s a bottom of the barrel option.
Joe Flacco, BAL
Flacco is a functional starter and improvement over what the Broncos have been putting out there at quarterback, but he’s not going to be to more than a desperation play in what figures to be a balanced offense.
Eli Manning, NYG
Manning will have maybe the most underwhelming wide receiver group in the league Week 1 and he might not be long for the starting job. Hopefully, you never have to start him this year.
2QB Superflex Stashes
Dwayne Haskins, WAS
If Washington is rational, Haskins will be starting Week 1 to learn on the job, unless he just isn’t ready to be on an NFL field. Even if he isn’t Week 1, he should have the most starts of any quarterback this year on what should be a rebuilding team.
Daniel Jones, NYG
Jones has rushing upside and the Giants will turn to him as soon as Eli Manning is the reason they go on a prolonged losing streak, or when they are out of the playoff race. So probably in October or November at the latest.
Josh Rosen, MIA
Rosen hasn’t been making a strong case to start Week 1, but the Dolphins should start him at some point this year to see what they have before making a decision on a first-round quarterback next year.
Jacoby Brissett, IND
Andrew Luck’s calf strain and setback brings Brissett starting Week 1 into play, and there’s always the chance of aggravation in season. The Colts have Super Bowl aspirations and will be extremely cautious with their starting quarterback.
