The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. These are players that will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. In an attempt to point out these players, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should underperform their draft position.
Player Receiving 6 Votes
Josh Allen, Buffalo
Phil Alexander: Allen is a fine best-ball target but you can do better if you're looking for a "set it and forget it" starter in redraft leagues. With running quarterbacks, you want the rushing stats to be the gravy, not the meat. Eventually, Allen will fail to score eight or nine touchdowns on the ground in a season (the addition of bruising running back Zack Moss in the draft doesn't help) and his mediocre passing stats won't be enough to make up the difference.
James Brimacombe: The best part of Allen's game is his rushing touchdown ability. Over 28 career games, Allen has 17 rushing touchdowns. When you are drafting Allen, you are hoping for that 8-10 rushing touchdown season to help him pay off his current market value. Allen had a remarkable season last year passing for 20 touchdowns and rushing for nine more, and even with those numbers, he finished as the QB10. If you want Allen on your team this season you will have to pay a premium for those potential rushing touchdowns.
Andy Hicks: I see where Josh Allen is being drafted and I get nervous. If we look at his rushing stats its easy not to get giddy, but then if we focus on his efforts as a passer and we should get very concerned. Eight or nine rushing touchdowns consistently is a tough ask. The addition of the consistent Stefon Diggs should help, but we have already seen Diggs frustrated with the way the Vikings were winning, playing a consistent 4000 passing yards a season guy. Dropping to 3000 on an even heavier running team and I am worried. Allen could easily show improvement as a passer. He was raw coming into the league and showed improvement from season one to season two. The bar gets higher though and until we see Allen not relying on his rushing stats, he should be treated with caution.
Jeff Pasquino: Big things are expected from Josh Allen in his third year in Buffalo. The Bills' quarterback now has a top-notch target in Stefon Diggs to be his WR1, moving John Brown and Cole Beasley down to reasonable second and third options at receiver. Solid running back and tight end options round out the offense for Allen, whose big arm should be able to hit either Diggs or Brown deep. Allen adds extra value (and fantasy floor) with his rushing ability, eclipsing 500 yards and eight touchdowns in both of his first two seasons. All that said, weather can always impact a game in Buffalo and his fantasy playoff schedule screams it (vs. SF, at Denver, at New England). Drafting Allen as a Top 10 quarterback leaves no room for upside, so be cautious here.
Matt Waldman: Allen has exhibited steady and incremental improvement as a passer. His accuracy is trending upward as he has gained better weapons, especially the experienced veteran John Brown. He'll also gain Stefon Diggs, which should allow Allen to spread the ball around the field with greater confidence. However, it's overconfidence in his arm strength and mobility that has been the underlying problem with Allen's game. He still makes awful decisions as a game manager that has diminished in volume but not necessarily in boneheadedness. Having more veteran receivers sounds great on paper but if reading the field and multiple progressions in a timely manner remains an issue, we'll see lower numbers than expected and isolated tantrums from frustrated teammates more often than we'd like. Allen will be on the cusp of QB1 production as a fantasy option but not a rock-solid QB1 as we're seeing right now.
Jason Wood: Josh Allen improved in every facet last year, proving he has a long-term future in the league after being an athletic runner and erratic passer as a rookie. He finished as the No. 10 quarterback, throwing for 3,089 yards and 20 touchdowns while running for 510 yards and 9 touchdowns. With the offseason acquisition of Stefon Diggs, the enthusiasm is palpable. But drafting Allen at his current price assumes too much optimism. He still completed just 58.8% of his passes last year, which in today's NFL makes him one of the least accurate throwers. And his 17 rushing touchdowns in two seasons is an impossible rate to maintain. Allen is a better fantasy quarterback than a real-life contributor, but he's ideally slotted as a high-end No. 2 than your every week starter.
Players Receiving 3 Votes
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore
David Dodds: The fastest way to lose your fantasy league is selecting a quarterback within the first two rounds of your draft. Lamar Jackson's just had a season for the ages, but the chance he regresses from his obscene rushing and passing totals is high. He managed 175-1213-7 rushing and scored 36 passing touchdowns on just 401 attempts. Both of these stat lines are numbing. The fact he achieved them both in the same season is absurd. The Ravens added running back J.K. Dobbins in the second round of the NFL draft tipping their hand that they would like to lessen Jackson's 2020 rushing totals at a minimum.
Jordan McNamara: Lamar Jackson’s 2019 season was fantastic, but he is due for regression. His 36 touchdown passes on 401 passing attempts was an 8.9% touchdown rate, almost double the historical average for quarterbacks. Importantly, this stat is not predictive year over year, meaning when a quarterback produces exceptionally well in one year, it is not something we should project the next year. Recent examples of quarterbacks who threw for less than 450 attempts with more than 30 touchdowns, include Ben Roethlisberger, Russell Wilson, Carson Wentz, and Tony Romo. Each of those quarterbacks saw their touchdown rate drop by at least 2% the following season. Jackson’s 1206 rushing yards are the best for a quarterback since 1970 by 167 yards. To repeat his 2019 output, Jackson will need to repeat his historic efficiency or see significantly higher passing attempts, which seems unlikely with Vegas projecting the Ravens with 11.5 wins.
Chad Parsons: Jackson had a truly historic 2019 season amidst his Year 2 breakout. However, touchdown regression in fantasy football goes along with death and taxes and the certainty phrase goes. Jackson lapped the quarterback field with a 13.6% touchdown rate (of his completions) in 2019, where anything above 9.5% has a 94% regression rate historically and typically by 25-30% or more the following season. Pair Jackson leading the league with 36 touchdowns despite a meager 401 attempts and this is the perfect regression storm. Either Jackson's volume skyrockets through the roof or his passing touchdowns crash through the floor. As one of the top-drafted quarterbacks in 2020 and a strong collection of challengers behind him, Jackson is an easy avoid player.
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay
Andrew Davenport: The writing is on the wall in Green Bay. Rodgers is still an extremely talented quarterback, but he isn't the same fantasy powerhouse that he used to be. He continues to have an inflated ADP because of his name and his past accomplishments. Head Coach Matt LaFleur has made no secret of the fact that he wants to be a team that runs the ball well, and last year Rodgers' numbers reflected that. He recorded 10 games last year below 20 fantasy points, and outside of a couple of big games against Oakland and the Giants (9 of his 26 touchdowns), he was a very unexciting fantasy quarterback. There are so many young, explosive quarterbacks that can be had near or after Rodgers in fantasy drafts right now that it doesn't make much sense to draft him and have to deal with such a large percentage of games with disappointing results. Pass on Aaron Rodgers at his current ADP.
Justin Howe: Last season pointed at Rodgers entering the clear twilight of his career - and as a fantasy QB1. He'll still carry that upside, of course, until he hangs up his cleats. But it's no longer wise to project him as such, nor to spend a QB1 pick on him. There's just too much similar upside available down the draft board - and some with even better fantasy floors. It was telling that the Packers have opted not to address their bare-bones receiving corps outside of a Devin Funchess here and there. Coach Matt LaFleur has talked up a run-powered offensive attack, and his front office's actions seem to back that up. As a result, Rodgers may not sniff 4,500 yards or 30 touchdowns as a Packer again. And there are 8-12 other options to be had on draft day that won't require a name-recognition pick.
Jason Wood: Aaron Rodgers enters his 16th season living on prior accomplishments. Last year was supposed to re-awaken his elite status thanks to the innovative mind of Matt LaFleur replacing the old and predictable Mike McCarthy. Yet, when the dust settled the 2019 version of Rodgers looked exactly like the 2018 version. Rodgers remains an excellent quarterback, but his upside is capped by one of the league's worst receiving corps. His lack of rushing touchdowns is a stealth dampener, too. When he finished No. 1 or No. 2 for five consecutive seasons (2008-2012), he scored 18 rushing touchdowns. He's only scored three in the last three seasons. Don't be the person who overvalued what Rodgers used to be; draft him for what he is today.
Players Receiving 2 Votes
Drew Brees, New Orleans
James Brimacombe: It is hard to not like Drew Brees the quarterback but it is also hard to draft him based on his name value right now. Brees has finished as the QB10, QB8, and QB24 (missing five games) over the last three seasons and now has Taysom Hill looking over his shoulder each game. Now entering season 20, we have to start worrying about Brees' role on the team and how many passing attempts he will really see. It used to be a given that Brees would pass for over 600 attempts as he cleared that number from 2010 through 2016, but since then, his highest attempts over the last three years was back in 2017 with 537 when he finished as QB10.
Jeff Haseley: Like Tom Brady, Drew Brees keeps on playing. As long as he's still capable of throwing the ball, he'll be successful. The desire to play Taysom Hill more, plus the presence of Jameis Winston, might mean the Saints are forecasting the need to replace him, at some point. Drew Brees is the consummate pro, just like Peyton Manning, but if you recall, Manning was benched for Brock Osweiler the same season the Broncos won Super Bowl 50, with Manning at the helm. I could potentially see a scenario where Brees has a similar drop-off in arm strength, forcing New Orleans to make a move mid-season to save him for the stretch run. I would be a little leery making Brees my only option in redraft leagues as a result.
Drew Lock, Denver
Andrew Davenport: The hype on Lock is hard to ignore after the Broncos went out of their way to acquire offensive talent for the second-year quarterback. They brought in running back Melvin Gordon, and they drafted two exciting rookie pass catchers. Those new additions, combined with returning emerging players Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant, have many in the fantasy community ready for a Lock breakout. While this is a reasonable opinion, it is far from a sure thing. The problem is that nobody really knows if he'll be able to handle NFL defenses after they've had an offseason to study him, and he's being selected ahead of veterans like Ben Roethlisberger, Kirk Cousins, and Jared Goff. Part of the appeal of a potential breakout like Lock should be a dirt-cheap price tag. But the elevation of his ADP post-NFL draft is making it too expensive to gamble on a guy with just a handful of pro starts.
Jordan McNamara: Drew Lock will get an opportunity to start in Denver. The weapons should be improved with Jerry Jeudy, K.J. Hamler and Melvin Gordon added to an offense that featured Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant in 2019. Historically, only 22% of quarterbacks drafted in the second round of the NFL Draft produce a top 12 seasonal finish. Lock has a better opportunity than some of those counterparts but is not worth the cost when you can select more proven options like Ben Roethlisberger, Kirk Cousins, and Jared Goff later in the draft.
Baker Mayfield, Cleveland
David Dodds: Mayfield regressed in 2019 and looked overwhelmed on many occasions. Despite starting all 16 games, he had just three games where he eclipsed 300 yards passing. He also had only three games without throwing at least one interception. Baker will need to learn a new offense with a new coach this season while still playing in a division full of elite defenses. For as bad as Mayfield was in 2019, the Browns running game was stellar. Cleveland only logged 393 rushing attempts last season but managed an outstanding 4.84 yards per attempt. With Kareem Hunt available for all the games this year, I expect the Browns will run more and pass less and that does not bode well for a game manager who was already struggling.
Jason Wood: It's hard to understand the Baker Mayfield enthusiasm. In two seasons, he's ranked QB17 and QB18, which is alarming in its own right. But what's more concerning is how poorly Mayfield's play declined in his second season. His completion rate (59.4%), yards per attempt (7.2), touchdowns (22), and interceptions (21) all worsened, re-igniting many of the criticisms draft pundits had when the Browns surprisingly selected him with the first overall pick. Mayfield's career arc is far from resolved, but the trend is alarming as is the Browns continued upheaval. With Odell Beckham's health and focus still in flux, Mayfield cannot be drafted as anything more than a late-round, high-upside QB2.
Kyler Murray, Arizona
Andy Hicks: Kyler Murray is expected to make a second-year leap straight into the elite fantasy quarterbacks. The addition of DeAndre Hopkins is projected to make this easier. The problem this year is that he has little room to move regarding his draft slot. If he becomes elite, well that is what he was supposed to do. If he struggles like many second-year quarterbacks do, what then? Opposing coaches aren’t idiots. They will have analyzed his strengths and weaknesses and will plan for them. Murray must show growth. Becoming a reliable passing and rushing quarterback is no easy task and his form over the last six games of the season concerns me. Rookie wall or not, over this period an average of less than 200 passing yards a game, barely a touchdown a game and around thirty rushing yards has to give you pause for thought.
Jordan McNamara: Kyler Murray showed promise in his rookie season, but his current cost bakes in little risk. Murray is presumed to take the next step forward from a QB9 finish in 2019, but of the five quarterbacks since 2008 to post a top 12 seasonal finish as a rookie, none have finished better than QB6 in year two. While the Cardinals added new WR1 DeAndre Hopkins, the truncated offseason limits both Murray’s developmental time and his time to build a rapport with Hopkins. This creates risk where it is unnecessary because there are quarterbacks later in the draft who offer just as much upside with safer floors in the form of Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott.
Russell Wilson, Seattle
Ryan Hester: Along with Dak Prescott and Deshaun Watson, Wilson is in the quarterback purgatory tier of fantasy drafts. The tire above them are high-priced players, but they all offer overall QB1 upside. And the players below them offer similar ranges of outcomes for less investment. Wilson also threw a touchdown on 6.0% of his pass attempts last season. That figure was the second-highest rate of any quarterback that finished the season in the Top 20. Only Lamar Jackson had a higher rate, and with the way that Jackson scores fantasy points, benchmarking him can be a difficult task. If Wilson’s touchdown rate regresses and Seattle remains a slow, run-heavy team, his fantasy production will reach disappointing lows.
Justin Howe: Wilson is a fine QB1, and I have no doubt he'll finish somewhere in the top 10 at the position. Wilson routinely grinds out those top finishes on the backs of eyebrow-raising efficiency numbers, like his scorching 7.0% touchdown rate over the past two years, third only to Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes II. Yes, he continues to put up those unsustainable numbers year after year, and it would surprise no one to see him do it again in 2020. But in most drafts, he requires a fairly premium pick, and I'm not interested in an early dive when there's so much comparable upside available later.
Players Receiving 1 Vote
Tom Brady, Tampa Bay
James Brimacombe: There is excitement in Tampa Bay with the Brady signing and rightfully so. The Buccaneers have all the weapons on offense as the team has put things in place for Brady to succeed. Entering his 21st season in the league, Brady continues to amaze with his skills and abilities to lead an offense. Over the last two seasons, he has finished as the QB12 and QB13 and has only cracked the Top 10 twice in the past seven years. With Godwin and Evans at wide receiver, it is easy to predict Brady to be a top-10 quarterback this year, but the asking price is just too high to take that chance.
Dak Prescott, Dallas
David Dodds: Is there any amount of money, Dak is going to play for? I half-joke, but this contract extension is now going on two years plus. Dallas threw 597 passes in 2019 but averaged just 510 pass attempts over 2017 and 2018. The team still has Ezekiel Elliott, a strong offensive line, and a capable backup running back in Tony Pollard. When the pass attempts come back down in 2020, so will the passing yards and touchdowns.
Matthew Stafford, Detroit
Andy Hicks: In the last two years, Matthew Stafford has either struggled or missed games with back injuries. Given the number of times he will be hit behind that offensive line, I would expect more of the same in 2020. His salary cap situation made it almost impossible to trade him in the current offseason, but given the likelihood of a new coaching group in 2021, we could see Stafford playing elsewhere next year as a new regime puts its stamp on the team. Trading or cutting him becomes a reasonable cap hit for the 2021 season. Stafford may be productive when playing, but as age and his body start catching up to him, he becomes a risky choice this year. I would prefer to see him play and not have back issues before I can trust him again.
Deshaun Watson, Houston
Ryan Hester: Houston acquired Brandin Cooks and Randall Cobb in the offseason. In theory, that should be good for Watson’s case. But he also lost DeAndre Hopkins in the offseason’s most high-profile move. Breaking in two new wide receivers while being without one of the game’s best is a significant negative for Watson. Consider also that Watson rushed for seven touchdowns last season (tied for second with Lamar Jackson behind Josh Allen’s nine). Even for a superb athlete like Watson, expecting that many rushing touchdowns to be repeatable is a tough ask. If selecting a quarterback in this tire, both Dak Prescott and Russell Wilson are better selections -- Prescott for his ceiling and Wilson for his safety.
Carson Wentz, Philadelphia
Jeff Pasquino: Carson Wentz put up impressive numbers in Philadelphia's playoff push last season, posting a career-high 4,039 yards passing, but he still has not topped the 30-touchdown pass mark since his MVP season in 2017. Wentz has had some issues staying healthy as well, and there is now a reasonable threat to his playing time with the addition of second-round pick Jalen Hurts. Hurts will be used in a Taysom Hill-style role, and he could also be used to burn down the clock late in games to protect the health of Wentz -- great for the Eagles' playoff hopes, but not so hot for fantasy production.