This article is about a 9-minute read.
The series:
- Draft Strategy with an Early 1st-Round Pick
- Draft Strategy with a Middle 1st-Round Pick
- Draft Strategy with a Late 1st-Round Pick
How you begin a draft can alter the entire composition of your roster. And where you pick in the first round can make all the difference in your early-draft strategy.
Let's talk about strategy when you have a late pick in the first round. How do you prefer to start a draft when you pick between the 1.09 and 1.12 spots? Do you map out your first few picks? What do you like your roster to look like when drafting from these spots?
Jason Wood
I trust my projections implicitly, so picking late is very much about being flexible. The way most mocks, industry drafts, and best-ball drafts have gone, I'm taking a receiver or running back in the first round if I'm picking late, and then most likely pairing them up with the alternative (so, WR/RB or RB/WR) in the early second. But I've also targeted Travis Kelce depending.
I generally want to come out of the first four rounds with two running backs picking late in the first, and the other two positions are best player available. Usually, that means one of those two picks is a receiver, but not always. Receiver depth is great this year, and in particular, there's a very flat and wide group of pass-catchers that are at or near the VBD baseline, so as long as you have one bonafide top-12 receiver on your board, you can wait a long time to build out that position.
Jeff Haseley
One of the big advantages of picking at the turn, whether it's at the end of the draft slots or the beginning, is that you have the luxury of taking two players to solve a hole in your roster. It also makes decision-making an easier proposition. For example, during the draft, you may think to yourself, "I really need my third wide receiver, but I could use another running back before the position dries up." If you're at the turn, you can select both and remove the concern of which players may or may not make it to your next pick.
You also have the advantage of knowing or estimating what your opponent next in the draft, might do, by looking at their draft picks so far. If you have draft slot 11 and you see the slot 12 team has not drafted a quarterback yet, you may want to take a quarterback with the first pick of your two because you have reason to believe your opponent in slot 12 will select one. That can work for the tight end position as well and is a luxury when drafting at the turn.
Chad Parsons
I am still focused on running back with two or three within my first three selections. Specifically, I like Josh Jacobs and Nick Chubb in the late-first to early-second zone of 1-QB format drafts. I am much more likely to mix in my WR1 at the Round 3/4 turn than at the Round 1/2 turn from a team-building perspective.
The biggest tip for drafting at the edges of the draft order is -- since there are so many selections before you are on the clock again -- be bold and aggressive with your target players. It will be difficult to stay ahead of positional runs or projecting what players will exactly be available after 18 or 20+ picks go off the board. Therefore, clump the next 15-20 players together and ask yourself if there is one or two who you would be disappointed if they do not make it back to you. If so, prioritize that player or two, lock them up, and be flexible with the rest of the players as to which last the nearly two rounds until you are on the clock again.
Jeff Pasquino
To build on Chad's point, try to start a run at a position that you just filled with your second of two picks at the turn. This may matter a little less in the first four rounds, but taking a quarterback in Round 8 if everyone is waiting at the position virtually ensures that several will go off the board by the time you are on the clock in Round 9. So if you are taking a running back and a quarterback at the 7/8 turn, take the quarterback second, not first.
As for my outlook on how to draft late, once again if I am at 1.09, 1.10 or 1.11, I am closely tracking the teams drafting after me (Teams 10-12) to see what positional needs arise. That will impact my first pick (before these teams pick), but if I have Pick 10 and Team 11 and Team 12 lock up Kelce and Kittle in Rounds 1 and 2, there is no way I am taking a tight end in an odd-numbered round with these two teams already having an elite tight end. These little things often make a big difference.
As for mapping things out, yes, I want to have a reasonable plan for the first half of the draft (Picks 1-10, possibly to Round 12). I know that I will want three or four running backs, three or four wide receivers, at least one tight end, and one quarterback. Looking at mocks and ADP lists will help me find the rounds to target values at certain positions (similar to my 7-11 Drafting article from last year, which I will refresh for 2020 very soon), but the first five or six rounds are all about using my Top 50-60 list based on the league setup. Ideally, I will have a running back and either a stud wideout or tight end with my first two picks, then another running back and the third position that I skipped at the 1/2 turn to balance out the roster, resulting in a 2-RB, 1-WR, and 1-TE start. From there a value running back pick will emerge in the next four rounds, and there is such depth at wide receiver that almost any round can provide one. Quarterback is very deep once again this year, so waiting there often makes sense, and possibly waiting very late as well for a second quarterback.
At this stage of the draft, you are looking at having the choice between a strong running back and a non-Michael Thomas receiver. You may consider either of the top two quarterbacks and tight ends but would likely pass on them. By your third and fourth picks you may be hoping for one of those quarterbacks and tight ends, but not expecting them to be there. Depending on how your tiers work, you ideally would like either three running backs and one receiver or two running backs and two wide receivers. There is also the potential to stack up on three elite receivers, but there is considerable value at this position later in the draft.
Bob Henry
I'm generally taking the two best players available on my board from this slot as the first six spots are pretty static with the top five running backs and Michael Thomas. In many drafts now, Clyde Edwards Helaire is now going before 1.09, which means you have another top player sliding into your decision tree.
I'm fine taking RB/RB, RB/WR, WR/RB, or even WR/WR, but more likely than not I am going running back with the first pick and then highest on my board next which could very well mean Travis Kelce. The end of the third round means that one of the two top quarterbacks could fall. At 3.09 to 3.12, I find it hard to pass on either one if they do.
In most cases, I'm coming out of the first four rounds with a combination of RB/WR, possibly Kelce and perhaps Jackson/Mahomes. If not, I'm quite happy to get Amari Cooper, Allen Robinson, or A.J. Brown in the late third and/or D.J. Moore, Calvin Ridley, or Robert Woods in the early fourth. In fact, it's one of the reasons why I like to go RB/RB at the first two picks, especially when players I covet fall into my lap. Edwards Helaire's adjusted ADP in the mid-first often means that Derrick Henry could fall ninth. Either way, a combination of Henry/Drake/Mixon/Davante Adams in the first and then Chubb/Jacobs/Sanders/Kelce/Tyreek in the second is a nice way to start.
Also, drafting near the end of the first round can be a predicament if you want to pass on Jackson/Mahomes and target the next tier of Prescott/Wilson/Watson/Murray. I'd rather not take one in the early sixth, but they're often all gone by the late seventh. If you're patient, you can be rewarded and have the last one in that tier fall while you've stocked up on running backs/wide receivers/Kelce with your prime picks.
Andrew Davenport
Drafting at the end of the first round is where I want to be this year. I like the options there, and it has become even more attractive now that Clyde Edwards-Helaire is jumping up into the first round. There will be a stronger player dropping to the end of the round now.
I still believe that I want at least two running backs before I get out of the fourth round in this year's draft. It is a little easier to make sure of that from the bottom of the round because you'll have the option of going with two running backs with your first two picks if you like what's there, or you are assured of getting someone decent at the 3/4 turn as your RB2.
I don't have a strong opinion when I'm locking up those two running backs, but I think it gets much more difficult if you attempt to go WR/WR or WR/TE with your first two picks. I'm staying away from that.
Otherwise, I'm happy with however it shakes out - RB/RB; WR/RB; RB/TE; RB/WR. The main decision point for me is how much do I like the running backs that are available when it starts to get near my selection. I'm not as excited as others to go for Miles Sanders, Austin Ekeler, and Edwards-Helaire in this zone, so typically my drafts involve me taking just one running back with my first two picks. I'm usually persuaded by either Travis Kelce on the board still (George Kittle doesn't do it for me here), or one of the elite wide receivers that are falling because of the running back craze. The limitation to this thought is that I'm only taking the wide receiver if it is Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, or Julio Jones (assuming Thomas is gone). Anyone else at receiver there would lose a tiebreaker to the best running back still on my board.
I love the flexibility that I see drafting from the end of the first round this year and it also seems to be the best value pockets that I see positionally. After the first two rounds, I want to have two running backs, but other than that I will be taking the best player on the board. Heading into Round 5, where I'll start hitting receivers, I would love it if my roster was: Kelce or Hill/Jones; Drake; Carson or another 300-touch back; JuJu Smith-Schuster/Amari Cooper/Calvin Ridley/Adam Thielen. That start is eminently achievable from the back of Round 1, and it is where I want to be.
Jordan McNamara
If I was going to go running back heavy, this might be the range I'd take four running backs in the first rounds. Nick Chubb and Josh Jacobs are targets for me at the one-turn, while early ADP has LeVeon Bell, David Johnson, James Conner, and Devin Singletary as options at the three-four turn. Of the wide receivers at the one-two turn, Julio Jones would be my target, while JuJu Smith-Schuster is the target in the three-four turn range. I'd be hesitant to go four straight running backs, but three along with one of Jones or Smith-Schuster as a wide receiver anchor would an excellent start.
Dan Hindery
My top couple of tiers of running backs runs 13 deep, and it makes a lot of sense to just grab a pair of backs with strong RB1 upside early and then feast on the wide receiver depth in the next handful of rounds. My three favorite running back targets in this range are Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Joe Mixon, and Nick Chubb. I am sold on each both in terms of talent and opportunity.
While I prefer the RB-RB start, I try not to go in with a plan set in stone. If Michael Thomas slides out of the top 8 or if there is a run on running backs that pushes Davante Adams into the early second, those are the two wide receivers I would happily take in this range.
Near the 3/4 turn, James Conner has been moving up my board in recent weeks and is my favorite target in this range. I would also be thrilled to land either Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes II if they slid to the late third, as well. If Conner and the top two quarterbacks are gone, this is an ideal part of the draft to start loading up on wide receiver. Allen Robinson, Adam Thielen, Amari Cooper, and Odell Beckham are great values in the late third round.