For the most part, curses are a load of bunk.

Lord Carnarvon didn't die because he financed the expedition that located Tutankhamun's tomb, although grave-robbing is still pretty messed up. Pope Clement V didn't die because of the Curse of the Knights Templar, although what they did to Jacques de Molay was (again) pretty messed up. The Hope Diamond had a lot less to do with Prince Ivan Kanitovski getting dead than Russian revolutionaries with guns.

And don't even get me started on the Madden Curse. That was internet idiocy at its finest. Peyton Hillis didn't have a bad 2011 season because he appeared on the cover of a video game. A contract dispute, a couple of injuries, and a so-so player regressing to the mean were far more likely causes. Never mind that no one has mentioned the curse in years after Patrick Mahomes II supposedly broke it in 2019.

However, in fantasy football, there actually is a curse--one that has stalked the landscape for years. It has claimed any number of victims. Ruined scores of seasons. And spared very few.

It is The Curse of 370. And Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley is squarely in its crosshairs.

What is The Curse of 370?

The Curse of 370 was discovered by Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders all the way back in 2004 while examining the heavy workloads Ricky Williams had racked up in 2002 and 2003. After 383 carries in 2002, Williams carried the ball 392 times the following year. His yards per carry fell by well over a yard, and his fantasy production in PPR leagues dropped by just under 24 percent.

That led Schatz to go back and look at every 370-carry back and examine their production the following season. He arrived at this conclusion.

"These backs basically fall into three categories," Schatz wrote. "Guys who got injured the next year, guys who were never as good again, and guys who are Eric Dickerson."

Ouch.

I have written about the Curse more than once over the years, but here's the Cliffs Notes version.

There have been 30 running backs since 1980 who have carried the ball over 370 times in the regular season. Of that group, one (Eric Dickerson in 1984--when he set the single-season rushing record) improved on his production from the previous season. A dozen (that's 40 percent for the math-averse) saw their production drop by over half. The average decrease in production topped 40 percent.

If that's not gross enough, over two-thirds of those 370-carry backs missed time the following year. Eight sat out at least six games, including the only 370-carry back of the past decade--Derrick Henry in 2020.

The Curse of 370 Evolves

NFL offenses have evolved in recent years. The days of running backs amassing more than 370 carries in a season are all but gone. (Henry is the lone instance in the last 10 years.) But the Curse of 370 has evolved right along with it, like bacteria becoming resistant to antibiotics.

Now, if a back records more than 370 total touches in a campaign, odds are good that the following season will be letdown-city.

Since 2007, there have been 25 instances where a running back surpassed 370 touches in a season. Of that group, two (Clinton Portis in 2008 and Ray Rice in 2011) gained more yardage the following year. An equal number (Rice and Adrian Peterson in 2009) saw an increase in PPR points.

That's eight percent who increased their production. A few others saw minimal decreases. Fantasy managers weren't pleased with that, but they didn't want to play in traffic.

For the vast majority, though? Frogger time. The bottom fell out. Missed games. Lost seasons. Precipitous drops in both yardage gained and fantasy points amassed. Doom. Despair. The feeling of being a Browns fan.

Shudder.

Let's take a look at the 10 backs who have surpassed 370 total touches over the past decade--and what that big workload meant the following year.

You may want to grab the Pepto. Or the tequila.

Man, that's just depressing.

Of that group, one back (Ezekiel Elliott in 2019) came close enough to the prior year's numbers to justify his ADP. Every other back saw a dropoff of at least 20 percent in PPR points.

Four of the nine backs (not including Barkley last year) sat out at least six games the year following their 370-touch campaign--five if you count the contract dispute that wiped out Le'Veon Bell's 2018 season. That's over half who missed a big chunk of the year--and wrecked fantasy squads. David Johnson dislocated his wrist in the season opener in 2017 and missed the rest of the year. Christian McCaffrey played in just three games in 2020 thanks to ankle and shoulder ailments. Derrick Henry was actually on a better per-game pace in 2021 than in 2020--right up until he broke his foot mid-season. Jonathan Taylor lost half a dozen games to ankle injuries in 2022.

Can you pass that tequila?

If you give Bell a mulligan for 2018 and use his 2019 production instead of a goose egg, the average drop-off in PPR production for backs coming off a 370-touch campaign is over 49 percent. Half. The. Points. Go. Buh-Bye.

Seriously. Pass the Cuervo. I need a drink.

Numbers don't lie. And the sample size is big enough. The reality is this--if a running back hits 370 touches in a season, his production the next year will all but certainly drop considerably. Is it possible to avoid the "Curse of 370?" Yes. Is it likely? Not even a little.

The Curse's Next Victims

Barkley tallied 378 total touches for the Philadelphia Eagles last year on the way to becoming the ninth 2,000-yard rusher in NFL history. That alone is cause for concern. But Barkley also added another 104 total touches in the playoffs--26 per game. That included 91 carries. So all told, Barkley carried the ball a staggering 436 times last season and touched it 482 times.

That number isn't alarming. It's terrifying. I'm going to get more into the "Why?" with Barkley next week here at Footballguys (Believe it or not, there are even more reasons for apprehension. Dread. Clevelanditis.), but this analyst wants no part of Barkley at ADP--and even less with the first overall pick.

There's another Round 1 running back who sailed past 370 touches in 2024--it just wasn't in the NFL. Ashton Jeanty of the Las Vegas Raiders had 397 touches at Boise State last season. So, in the interest of seeing if a heavy collegiate workload can have the same detrimental effect on a rookie's numbers, I looked at every running back selected in the top 10 over the past decade.

We just haven't seen a rookie back enter the league in recent years coming off racking up the number of touches that Jeanty had a season ago. Elliott was closest, but he had over 80 fewer in 2015--albeit in one fewer game. Todd Gurley tore his ACL in 2014, and Leonard Fournette battled a balky ankle in his last year at LSU.

However, McCaffrey piled up 382 total touches at Stanford in 2015. In 2016, he led the nation in all-purpose yards, but he also missed a couple of games and sat out another. Make of that what you will, but the biggest takeaway from this table should be that no running back drafted among the top-10 picks since 2015 finished lower than RB10 as a rookie in PPR points.

Is Jeanty's 2024 workload a little worrisome? Maybe. But the Raiders' bottom-10 offensive line is a bigger concern than touches amassed in the Mountain West Conference.

Okay, so I may have been burning sage as I typed that. Don't judge me.

Close Might Be Close Enough

As things stand now, the first running back off draft boards in 2025 isn't Barkley--it's Bijan Robinson of the Atlanta Falcons. Robinson escaped the Curse of 370 in his second season in 2024, but just barely--his 365 total touches ranked second in the regular season behind Barkley.

Still, that means he's safe, right?

Wrong.

Given the tone of this article, did you really expect good news? Come on, y'all.

There is data to support that even at 325 touches, a running back is more likely to regress the following season than to meet or surpass the prior campaign. Don't worry, a table with scores of players isn't forthcoming. Neither is a graph that would be as much fun as watching pickleball on TV. To be fair, the ratio isn't as crushingly depressing as it is once backs hit 370 touches, and there are instances of players who amass 325-369 touches crushing it the following season. But those instances are rare. If a back hits even that threshold, the chances his production will decrease the next year are substantially higher than the chances it will increase. And the more touches he has, the worse those chances get.

If you're wondering while reaching for the vodka (Sorry, the tequila's gone.), Robinson and Kyren Williams both had at least 350 touches in 2024. Henry and Josh Jacobs both surpassed 325.

I need a tissue at this point. And maybe therapy.

The Curse of 370 isn't new. Neither is the fact that running backs (as a whole) are riskier fantasy bets than wide receivers. It's the nature of the position. But fantasy managers need a formidable backfield nonetheless if they are to bring home the title, and as they go about building that backfield, they need to bear this in mind.

The workload from the previous season absolutely matters. The more touches a back had the year before, the higher the odds he will disappoint. If that number hits 370, those odds are overwhelmingly against him.

And if you have the 1.01 in 2025, you might want to take a hard look at a wide receiver like Ja'Marr Chase of the Cincinnati Bengals or Justin Jefferson of the Minnesota Vikings.

Because while the Curse of 370 hasn't killed any more people than King Tut, it will most assuredly kill your season.

Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow Gary on X at @IDPGodfather.