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Rescheduled Games No Longer on the Main Slate
- Washington Football Team at Philadelphia Eagles
- Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams
Favorite Games
- None
Favorite Additional Spots
- 49ers at home vs. the Falcons - Implied Team Total 27.75
- Cardinals on the road against the Lions - Implied Team Total 30
- Packers on the road against the Ravens - Implied Team Total 25.25
- Dolphins at home vs. the Jets - Implied Team Total 25.25
- Bills at home vs. the Panthers - Implied Team Total 28.25
- Cowboys on the road against the Giants - Implied Team Total 27.5
- Jaguars at home vs. the Texans - Implied Team Total 22.25
CASH GAMES
Quarterbacks
Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
1 | Josh Allen | vs. Panthers | $8,100 |
2 | Jimmy Garoppolo | vs. Falcons | $5,800 |
Despite an injury scare earlier in the week, Josh Allen is all systems go for Week 15 playing at home against a struggling Panthers defense. The 7-6 Bills are now in must-win territory and will rely on Allen just like they have all season to deliver a victory. Allen ranks ninth in pass yards per game (271.1) and fifth in pass touchdowns per game (2.2) and has 531 rush yards and four rush touchdowns on the year as well.
I still think Jimmy Garoppolo is an average player being propped up by Kyle Shanahan but whether I'm right or wrong, Garoppolo deserves props for his 2021 season. Garoppolo leads a 49ers offense that ranks sixth in overall DVOA and seventh in DVOA and is in an incredible spot here at home against a Falcons defense that ranks 30th in overall DVOA and 29th in pass DVOA. Elijah Mitchell will miss another game as well which projects to push the offensive game plan a bit more toward Garoppolo's arm.
Running Backs
Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
1 | Aaron Jones | at Ravens | $6,600 |
2 | Najee Harris | vs. Titans | $7,800 |
3 | Ezekiel Elliott | at Giants | $7,300 |
4 | Cordarrelle Patterson | at 49ers | $6,900 |
Aaron Jones has only played on 49% and 45% of the Packers' offensive snaps over the past two weeks but he still has the juice. He showcased his dual-threat capability last week scoring a touchdown both on the ground and through the air. The Packers are seven-point favorites against a Ravens defense that ranks 23rd in overall DVOA.
Najee Harris ranks third in opportunities per game (24) and will use his dual-threat skill set to attack a Titans defense that ranks 18th in run DVOA. The Steelers are one-point home favorites.
Tony Pollard is Questionable after missing last week due to a torn plantar fascia in his left foot. Meanwhile, Ezekiel Elliott ranks 13th in opportunities per game (18.5) and saw 18 opportunities last week. Either way, Elliott will be the lead Running Back against a Giants defense that ranks 27th in run DVOA. The Cowboys are 10.5 point favorites against a Giants defense planning on starting Mike Glennon.
Cordarrelle Patterson's total opportunities over the past three weeks: 19, 18, 21. Patterson is in the discussion for fantasy MVP of the 2021 season as he continues to be Atlanta's top offensive weapon. Patterson has a tough matchup on tap against the 49ers run defense but San Francisco has proven vulnerable in the passing game so perhaps Arthur Smith optimizes Patterson's upside in the receiving game a bit more in this one.
Wide Receivers
Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
1 | Davante Adams | at Ravens | $8,900 |
2 | Deebo Samuel | vs. Falcons | $8,200 |
3 | Stefon Diggs | vs. Panthers | $7,700 |
4 | Diontae Johnson | vs. Titans | $7,500 |
5 | Brandin Cooks | at Jaguars | $5,800 |
Baltimore's defense only ranks 23rd in overall DVOA and 26th in pass DVOA and recently lost Cornerback, Marlon Humphrey, for the season. Davante Adams ranks third in targets per game (10.7) and is in a great position to turn his volume into massive production in this one.
Elijah Mitchell will miss another game which means Deebo Samuel is once again in line to be a dual-threat producer for a great 49ers offense playing at home against a Falcons defense that ranks 30th in overall DVOA, 29th in pass DVOA, and 23rd in run DVOA. The 49ers Implied Team Total of 27.75 is the fifth highest of the entire week, so Samuel is a good bet to find pay dirt at least once.
The 7-6 Bills are now in must-win territory and will rely on the passing offense just like they have all season to deliver a victory. That should mean a lot of Stefon Diggs, who ranks ninth in targets per game (9.3).
Diontae Johnson ranks second in the league in targets per game (10.8) yet is priced as a second-tier receiver. Johnson is a solid cash play based on volume alone and the matchup against Tennessee isn't a tough one either.
Brandin Cooks ranks tied for 13th in the league in targets per game (8.4) yet is priced at only $5,800 in a favorable matchup against a Jaguars defense that ranks 29th in overall DVOA and 31st in pass DVOA. The Texans don't have a reliable running game and the one thing the Jaguars defense can do reasonably well is defend the run. Look for Cooks to be busy on Sunday.
Tight Ends
Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
1 | George Kittle | vs. Falcons | $7,500 |
2 | Mark Andrews | vs. Packers | $6,400 |
3 | Zach Ertz | at Lions | $5,400 |
Kittle has seen 27 targets over the past two weeks and turned them into 21 receptions, 332 receiving yards, and three touchdowns. He now gets to play at home against a Falcons defense that ranks 30th in overall DVOA and 29th in pass DVOA.
Mark Andrews has seen at least eight targets in six straight games and ranks tied for 13th in the entire league in targets per game (8.4). Regardless of who is behind center for the Ravens, Andrews projects to be needed in a big way to keep pace with Aaron Rodgers.
Zach Ertz is listed as questionable so this is one to keep an eye on. But it sounds like he's going to play and if so, he projects to benefit from the absence of DeAndre Hopkins ins a great matchup against a Lions defense that ranks 31st in overall DVOA and 30th in pass DVOA.
Team Defenses
Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
1 | Dallas Cowboys | at Giants | $3,600 |
2 | Miami Dolphins | vs. Jets | $3,700 |
Mike Glennon projects to start for the Giants, who have the third-lowest Implied Team Total (17) of the week. The Cowboys have one of the best defensive lines in football and are 10.5 point favorites.
Zach Wilson has been a mistake machine, throwing 11 interceptions and being sacked 28 times in only nine games. He now has to play on the road against a good Dolphins defense. The Jets have the lowest Implied Team Total (15.75) of the week. The Dolphins are 9.5 point home favorites.
GPPs
Quarterbacks
Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
1 | Aaron Rodgers | at Ravens | $7,500 |
2 | Kyler Murray | at Lions | $7,900 |
3 | Tua Tagovailoa | vs. Jets | $5,700 |
At first glance, Aaron Rodgers playing on the road in Baltimore doesn't look great. And that makes Rodgers a great tournament play since that initial gut reaction is dead wrong. Rodgers has been incredible once again this season, leading a Packers offense that ranks second in both overall DVOA and pass DVOA. And the Ravens defense has been decimated by injuries this year, most recently losing Cornerback Marlon Humphrey. This is a big reason why Baltimore's defense only ranks 23rd in overall DVOA and 26th in pass DVOA.
Kyler Murray struggled in prime time last week and just lost DeAndre Hopkins. Good. Push ownership elsewhere because Murray is in a phenomenal spot against a Lions defense that ranks 31st in overall DVOA and 30th in pass DVOA. Murray's upside is on par, and possibly higher than every other Quarterback in the league thanks to his scintillating dual-threat skill set, which should be on full display this week.
Tua Tagovailoa provides significant salary savings, which is very appealing in this incredible spot at home against a Jets defense that ranks dead last in both overall DVOA and pass DVOA. A steady presence making a better real-life Quarterback than a fantasy one, odds are Tagovailoa provides another good but not great stat line. But if there's any defense that can prop up an accurate field general like Tagovailoa for a spike week, it's the Jets.
Running Backs
Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
1 | Joe Mixon | at Broncos | $7,200 |
2 | Chase Edmonds | at Lions | $5,100 |
3 | James Robinson | vs. Texans | $5,400 |
4 | A.J. Dillon | at Ravens | $5,700 |
5 | Michael Carter | at Dolphins | $4,700 |
Joe Mixon ranks sixth in opportunities per game (21.4) as Zac Taylor has proven all year long he wants a balanced offensive attack that hides the Bengals' pass-protection issues and protects Joe Burrow. Mixon appears to be in line for a ton of work once again against a Broncos defense that only ranks 25th in run DVOA.
James Conner, listed as Questionable, reportedly will play this week despite suffering an ankle injury at the end of Monday Night Football. But Kliff Kingsbury did admit this week he "probably has played Conner too many snaps in Chase Edmonds' absence." Admittedly a projection (Which is what we must do in tournaments to get to the top), Edmonds likely plays the majority of the snaps this week upon his return. He projects to come in at low ownership percentages in an incredible matchup against a Lions defense that ranks 31st in overall DVOA and 29th in run DVOA.
Urban Meyer has been fired, Carlos Hyde is out for this game, and interim Head Coach, Darrell Bevell, told the media this week he is committed to James Robinson as the Jaguars' starting Running Back. There are no questions about Robinson's talent and it appears we no longer have to question his playing time in a phenomenal matchup at home against a Texans defense that ranks 28th in run DVOA.
A.J. Dillon has actually played on more offensive snaps than Aaron Jones in both games since Jones returned from injury and the total opportunity counts over that stretch actually aren't close: Dillon 40 and Aaron Jones 19. The Packers are seven-point favorites in a game where Lamar Jackson is legitimately questionable to play. Dillon offers a ton of upside but because of Jones' two touchdowns last week, Dillon projects to have low ownership percentages.
Michael Carter returns to the lineup this week after an extended absence. Because of the missed time, Carter is out of sight out of mind for the masses, which means his ownership percentages are going to be low. Carter ranks 23rd in the league in opportunities per game (15.7).
Wide Receivers
Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
1 | DeVante Parker | vs. Jets | $4,300 |
2 | Gabriel Davis | vs. Panthers | $3,700 |
3 | Marvin Jones | vs. Texans | $4,600 |
4 | JaMarr Chase | at Broncos | $7,100 |
5 | Tee Higgins | at Broncos | $6,500 |
6 | CeeDee Lamb | at Giants | $7,400 |
7 | Amari Cooper | at Giants | $6,400 |
8 | Brandon Aiyuk | vs. Falcons | $6,300 |
9 | A.J. Green | at Lions | $4,900 |
10 | Christian Kirk | at Lions | $5,300 |
As of this writing, Jaylen Waddle is on the COVID list (But the NFL adjusted the COVID protocols this week so players that test positive can still return to play the same week if they test negative - so keep an eye on this), which means DeVante Parker projects as Tua Tagovailoa's #1 target in a home matchup against a Jets defense that ranks dead last in both overall DVOA and pass DVOA. Priced at only $4,300, Parker is an incredible play.
Emmanuel Sanders is listed as Doubtful. After Sanders got injured last week, Gabriel Davis stepped in for Sanders and played on 83% of the offensive snaps, his highest number of the season. Davis is only priced at $3,700 and projects to be Sanders' direct replacement in this home matchup against a vulnerable Panthers defense.
Urban Meyer has been fired and Darrell Bevell has been named the interim Head Coach. Bevell has history coaching Marvin Jones in Detroit and with everyone enamored by James Robinson's great matchup, Jones is likely to go overlooked. If Bevell has the ability to unlock Lawrence, which is certainly possible since Meyer was that bad as a Head Coach, Jones could go off.
Cincinnati wants to run the ball but playing on the road in Denver as three-point underdogs, they could be forced to throw in this one to keep their playoff hopes alive. If so, JaMarr Chase and Tee Higgins both offer upside against a Broncos defense that surprisingly only ranks 21st in overall DVOA and 19th in pass DVOA. Higgins still holds the edge in targets per game (8.1 vs. 7.5 for Chase).
Mike Glennon will start for the Giants and Dallas' defense looks like once of the best units in the league at the moment so Dak Prescott and company might not be asked to do a ton in this matchup just like last week. But if the Cowboys defense sets up their offense in scoring position repeatedly, there could be meat on the bone here for CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper. Lamb is the preferred play since he ranks 18th in targets per game (8.3).
Brandon Aiyuk caught six of ten targets for 62 yards and a touchdown last week and now gets to play at home against a Falcons defense that ranks 30th in overall DVOA and 29th in pass DVOA. With Elijah Mitchell out, Deebo Samuel has been playing more Running Back snaps. Look for that to continue this week, which should mean a few more targets headed Aiyuk's way.
DeAndre Hopkins is OUT and Zach Ertz is Questionable. This is significant since Kyler Murray is one of the best Quarterback plays of the week against a Lions defense that ranks 31st in overall DVOA and 30th in pass DVOA. A.J. Green and Christian Kirk project as Murray's top two wideouts as they've played the most snaps out of all receivers on Arizona and each played over 70% of the offensive snaps last week.
Tight Ends
Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
1 | Mike Gesicki | vs. Jets | $5,000 |
2 | Dawson Knox | vs. Panthers | $5,100 |
3 | Dalton Schultz | at Giants | $4,900 |
As of this writing, Jaylen Waddle is on the COVID list (But the NFL adjusted the COVID protocols this week so players that test positive can still return to play the same week if they test negative - so keep an eye on this), which means Miek Gesicki would project as a top-two option for Tua Tagovailoa sharing targets with DeVante Parker. Either way though, Gesicki is in a great spot at home against a Jets defense that ranks dead last in both overall DVOA and pass DVOA.
The 7-6 Bills are now in must-win territory and will rely on the passing offense just like they have all season to deliver a victory. That should help Dawson Knox, especially with Emmanuel Sanders doubtful to play. Knox is a full-time player in a pass-heavy offense and over the past month has had games with ten and nine targets.
Mike Glennon will start for the Giants and Dallas' defense looks like once of the best units in the league at the moment so Dak Prescott and company might not be asked to do a ton in this matchup just like last week. But if the Cowboys defense sets up their offense in scoring position repeatedly, there could be meat on the bone here for Dalton Schultz. Schultz is still a full-time player but has been quiet lately, making this the perfect time to lock him into your tournament lineup at a low ownership percentage.
Team Defenses
Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
1 | Buffalo Bills | vs. Panthers | $3,100 |
2 | Green Bay Packers | at Ravens | $3,300 |
The Bills are 12 point home favorites likely in part, because the Panthers can't figure out their Quarterback position, They continue to rotate Cam Newton and P.J. Walker, a strategy that can't inspire much confidence in the offense. The Panthers have the second-lowest Implied Team Total (16.25) of the week.
Lamar Jackson is legitimately questionable to play, which means Tyler Huntley would be in line to start against a solid Packers defense. The Packers are seven point favorites and are likely to be a bit lower owned than some of these other defenses mentioned.
Key Injuries and Suspensions
- Urban Meyer fired - Upgrade James Robinson, Trevor Lawrence, Marvin Jones, and Laviska Shenault
- Carlos Hyde OUT - Upgrade James Robinson
- Elijah Mitchell and Trey Sermon both OUT - Upgrade Jeff Wilson and Deebo Samuel
- Jaylen Waddle on the COVID list (But could still play with new protocols in place) - Upgrade DeVante Parker, Mike Gesicki, Myles Gaskin, and Albert Wilson
- Tony Pollard Questionable - Upgrade Ezekiel Elliott
- DeAndre Hopkins OUT and Zach Ertz Questionable - Upgrade A.J. Green, Christian Kirk, Rondale Moore, Chase Edmonds, Antoine Wesley, and Zach Ertz if he plays
- DAndre Swift OUT and Jamaal Williams still on the COVID list - Upgrade Craig Reynolds and Godwin Igwebuike
- Lamar Jackson and Marquise Brown both legitimately Questionable - Upgrade Packers D/ST and Rashod Bateman
- Emmanuel Sanders Doubtful - Upgrade Gabriel Davis
- TreDavious White OUT - Upgrade DJ Moore if he plays (Listed as Questionable)
- Marlon Humphrey OUT - Upgrade the Packers passing attack
- Corey Davis and Elijah Moore both OUT - Upgrade Jamison Crowder, Keelan Cole, and Braxton Berrios
- A.J. Brown OUT - Upgrade Julio Jones and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
- Calvin Ridley OUT - Upgrade Kyle Pitts, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Russell Gage
- T.J. Hockenson OUT - Upgrade Josh Reynolds, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Godwin Igwebuike
- Daniel Jones OUT - Upgrade Cowboys D/ST
- Rex Burkhead OUT - Upgrade David Johnson and Royce Freeman
Favorite Tournament Stacks and Game Correlation Plays
- Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams
- Tua Tagovailoa, DeVante Parker, and Mike Gesicki
- Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, and Gabriel Davis
- Kyler Murray, Chase Edmonds, and A.J. Green
- Jimmy Garoppolo, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk
Flag Plant Plays
- Kyler Murray
- Chase Edmonds
- James Robinson
- DeVante Parker
- Davante Adams
- Cowboys D/ST