It seems more fantasy-significant players are suspended in the NFL than ever before. There are several valuable dynasty players who will miss some or all of the upcoming NFL season, a couple were considered elite at their respective position before encountering the NFL's wrath. We will look at the situation of each below.
How did we get here?
Josh Gordon
Even after missing the first two games of the 2013 season due to suspension, much was forgotten as the talented receiver caught 87 of his 159 pass targets for 1,646 yards and nine touchdowns. It is amazing that Gordon was able to lead the NFL in receiving while playing only 14 games and with the horrific quarterback play in Cleveland. Toward the end of the 2013 season, he was considered a Top 3 player in dynasty circles at his position. Much was forgotten about the off-field issues. Gordon had failed a drug test in June 2013 leading to his last suspension which led to the delayed start of his season. This suspension put Gordon in Stage III of the NFL Substance Abuse Program, according to the Cleveland Plain Dealer. So, the recent failed test, for marijuana per ESPN, means the superstar pass catcher is likely out for the 2014 season. He will likely be suspended “indefinitely” and have to appeal to be reinstated. While we could argue the viability of testing for marijuana, Gordon knew the rule and the implications of another failed test. His loss will be huge for the Cleveland Browns who must now rely on Miles Austin to be a WR1, a level he is incapable of attaining. Gordon had “red flags” coming out of Baylor, but the Browns took a chance on a supreme talent.
Justin Blackmon
Blackmon was the fifth overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft. After a strong rookie season, Blackmon was suspended for the first four games of the 2013 season. He had some big outings after returning to the lineup. But, on November 1, 2013, Blackmon was suspended indefinitely for violating the NFL's Substance Abuse Policy. It was a sad ending to the season. In just four games, Blackmon caught 29 passes for 415 yards and one score. It is dangerous to prorate those numbers, but they justify the perception that Blackmon is one of the more talented players in the NFL when on the field. The silence out of the Jacksonville organization has been deafening regarding Blackmon leading many to assume the worst in the situation.
Ray Rice
Rice was considered one of the league's best running backs before enduring a trying 2013 season, battling hip and thigh injuries. All offseason reports have been very positive so far, with the veteran ball carrier looking light and nimble as in years gone by. But, the current issue plaguing Rice stems from striking his then-fiancee (now wife) unconscious in an Atlantic City elevator this past February. The Ravens need a strong running game to get the pressure off quarterback Joe Flacco, and now must rely on Bernard Pierce to shoulder the load early in the season with Rice expected to be suspended for several games.
Stedman Bailey
Bailey was a third round selection of the St. Louis Rams in the 2013 NFL Draft. In his rookie campaign, Bailey caught 17 of his 25 pass targets for 226 yards and no touchdowns. He struggled for playing time even with an injury-riddled receiving corps. This is not a good sign. On May 12, the NFL suspended Bailey four games for the use of performance enhancing drugs. He will return to the Rams in time for week six.
Fred Davis
Davis was a low-end fantasy starting tight end in 2009 and 2011, but has not been much of a factor since. He was suspended four games in December 2011, yet still caught 59 passes for 793 yards and three touchdowns. This was the last time Davis was fantasy-relevant. Washington has released Davis and his NFL future looks bleak. On Valentines Day this year, Davis was suspended indefinitely.
How should fantasy owners adjust for these players?
The question every dynasty owner must ask themselves is “How many more years do I expect each suspended player to play in his career?”. While there is much uncertainty, the answer is a balance of upside and risk. The more upside for a given player, the more risk owners are willing to accept.
Josh Gordon
His talent would warrant a ranking on par with A.J. Green, but dynasty owners must account for the loss of the 2014 season and potential risk going forward. Another failed drug test and Gordon could be out of the league for good. Since fantasy football is a game that rewards risk-taking and studs win championships, some owners see this latest occurrence as a chance to “buy low”. But, let's take a step back and survey the situation. Gordon just turned 23 years of age. He is still very young, younger even than some of the players selected in this past NFL Draft. If he can get his life together, Gordon has a very bright future in front of him. If he was not in the NFL Substance Abuse Program, dynasty owners would assume the talented receiver will be a star for at least ten more seasons. Admittedly, I am more optimistic than most on Gordon's outlook. He is even with DeAndre Hopkins in my dynasty rankings, coming in as WR10. Why so high on a risky situation? There are only a few young difference-makers at the receiver position. I would prefer to bet on him playing in the future than on a player who is “pretty good” becoming “elite”. Many owners are more risk averse. I can see that point of view and appreciate the desire to have a good starter over an uncertain situation.
Justin Blackmon
Blackmon will miss most or all of the 2014 season. The Jaguars brass have stated publicly that they are not counting on him going forward. The team showed it was more than talk when Jacksonville selected Marqise Lee and Allen Robinson in the NFL Draft. This should leave dynasty owners to wonder if the team knows more about the situation than what is said publicly. This is a very sad situation. It could be argued that the 24-year old is as talented as any wide receiver in the NFL. But, the risk is very high as well. For this reason, I have Blackmon ranked much lower than Gordon and equal to Torrey Smith. Smith is a solid fantasy performer, yet not able to dominate like Blackmon. If you are a believer in his talent, now would be a great time to buy the beleaguered pass receiver. He will likely never be cheaper.
Ray Rice
While just 27 years old, Rice is considered by many to be on the downside of his career after the injury-riddled 2013 season. Add in the expected suspension, and it is easy to see Rice as a solid “buy low” player as his value is rock bottom. Many have given up on the Baltimore runner. It is never a good thing for a strong football player to be involved in a domestic violence situation. However, the chances of another occurrence is perceived to be less than the two players above. Yes, there is risk, but Rice could easily perform as a fantasy RB1 at a great price. I have Rice in a pretty large tier with the likes of Trent Richardson, Christine Michael, and rookie Bishop Sankey. These backs are all younger than Rice, but he has been a fantasy starter when healthy.
Stedman Bailey
St. Louis brought in Kenny Britt and expect Tavon Austin to be healthy for the 2014 season. At best, Bailey may be able to vie for slot duties when he gets back from suspension. He does not have much upside and is a player to only stash at the end of the bench in the deepest of leagues. Given Bailey's limited potential, the risk just is not worth the uncertainty.
Fred Davis
Davis had very little value even before the suspension. He is a player to leave on the waiver wire. NFL teams were not clamoring to roster the veteran and neither should dynasty owners.
Feel free to email me (Tefertiller@Footballguys.com) with feedback. Also, I am on Twitter (www.Twitter.com/JeffTefertiller), LinkedIn, and Google+, so you can ask me questions on one of these as well.
