First Round Rookies or Bust
If you're reading this, there's a good chance you love football. And our collective fandom has an insatiable appetite for NFL-related content, which has turned the fantasy football industry into a 12-month, 365-day endeavor. The "offseason" is a misnomer, as we all watch free agency with feverish zeal, and then our attention turns to the NFL draft. We watch excitedly as teams use seven rounds of picks to bolster their rosters and further build training camp depth with undrafted free agent signings.
History tells us that there's no one formula for NFL success. Look no further than Tom Brady, considered by most the greatest of all time, drafted in the sixth round. Or more recently, Brock Purdy, 2022's Mr. Irrelevant, who is now entrenched as the 49ers' starter, armed with a new five-year, $265 million contract.
But here's the reality: Brady and Purdy were eventually successful, but neither was a must-start fantasy starter as a rookie. And the odds of a non-first-round rookie quarterback mattering in redraft leagues, particularly early in the season, is extremely low.
How low, you ask?
- 106 quarterbacks were drafted from 2015-2024 (10 Seasons)
- 19 of those quarterbacks (18%) finished in the top 24, which is the threshold for relevance in Superflex leagues
- Only 7 (7%) finished as top-12 quarterbacks
