Underrated and Unshakable
It may seem surprising that the WR11 in half-PPR points per game in 2024 came from a team that led the NFL in run rate. Yet such is life with Saquon Barkley in the backfield and A.J. Brown at wide receiver. Despite the Philadelphia Eagles' run-heavy tendencies, Brown remained a fringe WR1.
His 2024 output aligned with his career averages, though early-season injury issues and volatile weekly production made for a bumpy ride. Brown finished outside the top 36 wide receivers six times, but he also landed inside the top 10 six times. Week 10's WR16 finish was a statistical midpoint in an otherwise swing-heavy season.
RELATED: See all of our 2025 Player Spotlights here.
Even so, Brown's exceptional efficiency metrics and explosive ability—highlighted by a league-best 16.1 yards per reception among high-volume receivers—helped maintain his WR1 viability. And yet, public discussion has shifted from his elite production to trade speculation and contract narratives. Let's re-center the conversation around his value to fantasy managers.
He's been as consistent as they come.
Brown has been a constant in the Eagles' offensive structure since head coach Nick Sirianni arrived. Despite three offensive coordinators in three seasons – with a fourth on the way – Brown ranks among the Top 10 receivers in just about any statistical category:
Receving Yardage Leaders (2022-2024)
| Rank | Player | Games | Targets | Receptions | Yards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tyreek Hill | 50 | 464 | 319 | 4468 |
| 2 | Justin Jefferson | 44 | 438 | 299 | 4416 |
| 3 | CeeDee Lamb | 49 | 489 | 343 | 4302 |
| 4 | A.J. Brown | 47 | 400 | 261 | 4031 |
| 5 | Ja'Marr Chase | 45 | 454 | 314 | 3970 |
| 6 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | 49 | 451 | 340 | 3939 |
| 7 | Davante Adams | 48 | 496 | 288 | 3723 |
| 8 | Mike Evans | 46 | 373 | 230 | 3383 |
| 9 | Terry McLaurin | 51 | 369 | 238 | 3289 |
| 10 | Garrett Wilson | 51 | 469 | 279 | 3249 |
If we're looking at advanced metrics, Brown was the seventh-most valuable receiver in the NFL on a per-target basis last season with +0.58 expected points added per target. In his first two seasons as an Eagle, Brown posted +0.37 EPA/target across 303 targets. His 3.3 yards per route run was the second-highest mark in the NFL behind Puka Nacua last season.
When the Eagles pass, the offense flows through Brown.
He's a big-play machine.
Brown's 16.1 yards per reception in 2024 was second among all receivers with at least 80 targets, behind only Jameson Williams. His deep-threat profile is supported by consistent tight-window success.
Yards Per Reception Leaders (2022-2024)
| Rank | Player | Yards/Reception | Targets |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alec Pierce | 17.6 | 212 |
| 2 | George Pickens | 16.3 | 293 |
| 3 | Gabriel Davis | 16.1 | 216 |
| 4 | A.J. Brown | 15.4 | 400 |
| 5 | Brandon Aiyuk | 15.3 | 266 |
| 6 | Darius Slayton | 15.3 | 221 |
| 7 | Amari Cooper | 15.2 | 345 |
| 8 | Jaylen Waddle | 15.2 | 304 |
| 9 | Nico Collins | 15.0 | 274 |
| 10 | Justin Jefferson | 14.8 | 438 |
Regardless of who is playing running back or who is calling plays, Brown's big-play ability is leaned on consistently. His ability to make contested catches is a big reason why. His tight window percentage – or targets on which he's got less than a yard of separation – was at 26.8 percent last season. He still posted a +10.5% catch rate over expected.
Here's a look at his tight window percentage and corresponding catch rate over expected since he joined the Eagles.
A.J. Brown Tight Window Percentage and Catch Rates Over Expected (2022-2024)
| Season | Tight Window % | Catch rate over expected |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 26.8 | +10.5% |
| 2023 | 22.8 | +8.0% |
| 2022 | 25.5 | +0.2% |
He'll turn 28 in June. That's still within the window of a wide receiver's physical prime. That's exactly why we shouldn't worry about the injury issues he dealt with early in the season.
Despite last season, availability is a historical strength.
Injuries were a factor in 2024, but durability is typically a strength. Brown has missed only nine games in his NFL career and did not miss a single game due to injury in his first two seasons with the Eagles. The late-season knee issue in 2024 was well-documented, but he returned for the playoffs.
The Goedert Factor
The potential departure of tight end Dallas Goedert had fantasy implications, but Goedert ultimately remained on the roster post-draft. His presence impacts Brown's output, as defenses have more to account for.
Brown's production with Goedert on the field.
| Season | Games | Tot Fan Pts | Fan Pts/Game |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 12 | 161.5 | 13.5 |
| 2023 | 14 | 208.3 | 14.9 |
| 2024 | 5 | 90.0 | 18.0 |
| Total | 31 | 459.8 | 14.8 |
Brown's production with Goedert off the field.
| Season | Games | Tot Fan Pts | Fan Pts/Game |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 5 | 82.6 | 16.5 |
| 2023 | 3 | 28.9 | 9.6 |
| 2024 | 7 | 91.0 | 13.0 |
| Total | 15 | 202.5 | 13.5 |
A.J. Brown Recent Stats
| Season | Games | Rushes | RuYds | RuTDs | Targets | Recs | ReYds | ReTDs | FumLost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 97 | 67 | 1079 | 7 | 0 |
| 2023 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 158 | 106 | 1456 | 7 | 2 |
| 2022 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 146 | 88 | 1496 | 11 | 2 |
A.J. Brown 2025 Projections
| Projector | Games | Rushes | RuYds | RuTDs | Recs | ReYds | ReTDs | FumLost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Footballguys Consensus | 16.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 83.5 | 1232 | 8.0 | 0.5 |
| Bob Henry | 16.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 83.0 | 1280 | 8.0 | 1.0 |
| Jason Wood | 16.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 84.0 | 1184 | 8.0 | 0.0 |
Final Thoughts
There are variables in Philadelphia coming off a Super Bowl win. Most notably, Kevin Patullo steps in as a first-time offensive coordinator. And there's been a substantive change on the defensive roster. But the offensive core remains intact. The blueprint for A.J. Brown's usage is already established. Even in a run-heavy offense, he produces like a fantasy WR1. Given his ceiling, consistency, and proven big-play potential, Brown offers strong value, especially if he slips outside the top 10 wide receivers on draft day.
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