Even though he was an undrafted player in every fantasy draft, Nick Foles saved fantasy seasons. Nick Foles won fantasy championships. LeSean McCoy was the first round pick of many top teams. DeSean Jackson was a massive value in the mid-rounds. The unexpected explosion of offense in Philadelphia calls for a look back at how such a thing happened and a look forward to identify teams for 2014 to keep in mind. Upon first glance, one team has enough forces aligning around it to merit a prominent place on our watchlists this summer.
What made Foles and the Eagles successful from a fantasy standpoint in 2013? Was it that he was nearly flawless and highly efficient? Not really, at least not to the extent that his numbers suggest. What Foles did was embrace a decisive, aggressive mindset passing downfield off of play action, set up by a relentless and explosive running game. DeSean Jackson, Riley Cooper, LeSean McCoy, and a terrific offensive line did their part, but the most important element was head coach Chip Kelly’s system that had a college-style uptempo rhythm and very defined choices and play design for a quarterback to operate true to their spirit and concept. Foles “plugged into” Kelly’s system and activated the clever edges that it created when executed competently.
Are there any other offensive head coaches like that in the NFL?
In fact, last year under first-time NFL head Coach Doug Marrone and offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett’s leadership, the Buffalo Bills led the league in rushing attempts and were third behind only Denver and New England in offensive plays per game. All this while cruising to a 6-10 record with a rookie, a journeyman, and another rookie - this one undrafted - starting games at quarterback.
The rookie, of course, was EJ Manuel, a first-round pick and the apple of Marrone’s eye, so much so that he basically married his career to Manuel’s by being part of the regime to take him in the first in his first season.
Manuel actually had a solid start to his career despite missing a good part of camp after August knee surgery. He went toe-to-toe against the division bully Patriots in his regular season debut, and Manuel led a last-second comeback win against the Panthers in Week 2, which would prove to end up being one of the best defenses in the league.
He was not a natural runner, but his athleticism still allowed him to get nice chunks of yards. Eventually he got hurt in Week 5 against the Browns and was replaced by the undrafted rookie, Jeff Tuel.
About that journeyman…
The Bills traded for Thad Lewis in late August and he was on their practice squad until he got called up to start in Week 6. Lewis was not outstanding from an NFL or fantasy standpoint, but he displayed mental toughness, a more accurate deep ball than EJ Manuel, and a more natural approach to running the ball than Manuel.
Lewis was still new to the Bills’ system in his first game, which ended up being a 27-24 overtime loss to the Bengals. He brought the Bills back from a 14-point fourth quarter deficit and led another drive in the first half that stalled out at the one. Not too shabby. He got more beat up as the season went on and the Bills offense hit the skids as other key players like CJ Spiller and Stevie Johnson wore down playing through injuries. In that first game, however, Lewis was a bonafide fantasy stud, accounting for all three of his team’s touchdowns against a tough defense.
Like Foles, Lewis doesn’t really have any special traits. He is mobile, but not a supreme athlete. He hangs tough in the pocket, but he’s not a statuesque pocket passer with a rocket arm. What Lewis does well is run the plays as designed and get rid of the ball accurately when a receiver flashes open. He’s not going to chew up yards as a runner, but like Foles, Lewis can benefit from a fantasy standpoint by an offensive scheme that sometimes asks the quarterback to be a ball carrier for the strategic purposes.
If we’re going to find this year’s Foles, probably the most important indicator will be how they riff with these coaches. What do they think of Lewis?
Hackett was “blown away” when he started asking him questions. Right off the practice squad he was “answering it all”. When the Bills had to hire a quarterbacks coach this offseason, they chose Todd Downing, who Lewis worked with from May-August of last year as a member of the Lions before they traded him to Buffalo.
But if it’s Downing’s opinion that you care about, then you might also be interested to learn that the Bills new quarterback coach also worked with Manuel at the Senior Bowl in 2013 as a member of the Lions staff. Manuel and Downing bonded . He has called Manuel a “good learner”, a “film junkie”, and Downing said the experience made him want to work with Manuel again in his career. The two stayed in touch through the pre-draft process and Downing said the two have a “connection”. Manuel even said the team talked to him about Downing before hiring him.
So there’s a case to be made that either one of these quarterbacks could click this year, and let’s remember that Michael Vick had a few huge games before going down. Still, is it merited to compare last year’s Eagles to this year’s Bills?
They don’t have DeSean Jackson, but they do have Marquise Goodwin and TJ Graham to provide deep speed. Lewis hooked up with both on big plays last year. Robert Woods is also developing, and Manuel had good chemistry with him throwing downfield. They don’t have LeSean McCoy, but they do have CJ Spiller, who confounded defenses in 2012 and looked much the same when he was allowed to rest his high ankle sprain last year.
What the Bills have that the Eagles didn’t is Sammy Watkins, who can provide the run after catch element and the deep speed that Jackson infused into the Eagles pass offense. Coincidentally, both teams have Bryce Brown’s size/speed combination that will come into play on a team that will shoot for 546 rushing attempts again this year.
The comparison falls apart when you get to the offensive line, but the fact is that this poor line made the offense functional last year under bad circumstances. The addition of Watkins is exciting because the trade up shows a sense of urgency and an offensive coaching staff that believes in itself. The fact that this team could move the ball last year with such inexperience at quarterback and injuries to key skill players in a system-driven offense speaks to the possibility that they might be onto something, as Kelly is down in Philadelphia.
So what do we do with this hunch? With this attempt to skate to where the puck is going to be in Gretzky terms?
1) Be open to a Bills quarterback having a fantasy breakout this year - I don’t know if it will be Manuel, Lewis, or both, but if this offense gets off to a hot start at Soldier Field in week 1, grab Manuel to see what happens. Likewise with Lewis if he ends up on the field and starts as hot as he did against the Bengals last year. In deep leagues, you might consider Manuel as a late pick. Add Lewis to your late pick list in 2QB leagues and your watchlist in QB premium/flex leagues.
2) Snap Spiller up in the third - If it wasn’t for Adrian Peterson we’d all be more in awe of Spiller’s 2012 campaign. We saw the elite change of direction and acceleration when he wasn’t ailing last year. The volume and tempo of the Bills offense will create a tremendous fantasy opportunity here.
3) Don’t discount Bills passcatchers not named Watkins - Sammy Watkins has #1 overall hype and the overpriced ADP that comes with it, but others could have sneaky value a la Riley Cooper last year. Woods had a thing going with Manuel at times, and Stevie Johnson’s departure makes Woods the de facto #1 among returning receivers. He’s a good late pick in leagues where you might roster six or seven wideouts. Goodwin came out as an ultra-raw track athlete and could see a leap forward with his first full offseason. If he was dropped in your deep dynasty league by someone who overreacted to Watkins being drafted, rectify that. Likewise with Mike Williams, who could also add value on deep jumpballs a la Cooper. Even Scott Chandler, who surprisingly crept into the top 13 in both yards and receptions last year, could help your team in a pinch and contribute in TE premium leagues.
4) Fred Jackson isn’t dead yet - The energizer bunny of fantasy value proved to be a reliable passcatcher and the team’s primary goalline runner again last year. If you really think Jackson has one foot in the fantasy grave (or if you think Spiller can’t stay healthy), then remember Bryce Brown.
The biggest challenge every year is adjusting to the new reality the league presents us in the first few weeks of the season. By visualizing potential perfect storms, we can be ready to take advantage of them when others are still questioning their existence.