Note: Big thanks to Draft Breakdown for all the cut-ups. A must bookmark for anyone interested in watching college players.
Ahh AJ McCarron. Skipper of the Senior Bowl presumably because that’s what top picks do. Often ranked at or near the top of the second tier of draft quarterbacks as a viable “QB of the future” option in the second round. Known for having a hot girlfriend and being a “winner”. Looks like he’ll be a good, effective quarterback in the NFL. Wait, scratch that last one.
POSITIVES
Yes, there are positives to McCarron’s game. No, being a “winner” is not one of them:
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Classic game manager in a good way. He’ll run the play faithful to the way it is drawn up - Will find the open receiver on the second or third read as long as he has a clean pocket, and can read both sides of the field - Will avail himself of the checkdown and he keeps their location prominent in his mind as he is making other reads
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Good size at 6’3 ¼” 220. Durability worries or other downsides of undersized quarterbacks are not a problem here
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Pretty good anticipation of receivers flashing through open windows in zone coverage in the middle of the field, and he usually hits with enough accuracy to set up maximum run after catch opportunity
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Displays above average arm strength, although he rarely puts enough mustard on the ball to show this
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Can locate and make a good throw to an open receiver when he breaks the pocket and has a lot of room to operate
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Placement and timing on the backshoulder throw is sometimes perfect and usually very effective
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Arm strength allows him to make good throws from a muddy pocket with bodies around him - when he keeps his composure
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Good field vision and accuracy throwing while rolling out
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Will take a hit to make a throw, but often alters delivery to cover up, which could be a problem when the game gets faster in NFL
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Displays accuracy to drop the ball over defenders in zone coverage at times, but not always
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Can alter arm slot to deliver sidearm throw from pocket when passing lanes call for it
NEGATIVES
Notice that with a few exceptions, McCarron’s positives are within the structure of a play call, or at most the ability to sometimes be functional under pressure or when he is moved off of the launch point. Unfortunately, McCarron is mostly poor when he has to improvise, and he lacks some key attributes to maximize his game manager abilities.
Velocity/Trajectory on Sideline Throws - McCarron has decent arm strength, but he likes to throw high-arcing touch passes when throws outside. This gives defensive backs the opportunity to close on open receivers and makes it easier for them make a play on the ball in flight. It also nullifies any advantage McCarron can gain by spotting the receiver coming open and getting the ball out quickly. Observe:
Deep Ball Accuracy - On the throw above, you can see McCarron’s tendency to throw off of his back foot and lean back instead of stepping into his throw. This causes his deep ball to sail. McCarron is one of the least accurate deep ball passers in this class. There are plenty of frustrating overthrows of receivers wide open deep on his tape. Here are a few:
Short and Intermediate Accuracy - Well, sure, you say, but McCarron always nails those short and intermediate throws like a good game manager, right? Not exactly. He can lose his accuracy on shorter throws with bad ball placement and timing. It's not as constant as his deep ball problems, but it's there. This wouldn’t be as big of a deal if he was a better deep passer or better at creating outside of play structure. Because of the type of quarterback he is, he has to be precise on these plays to maximize his value. Too many times on film, he isn’t:
Composure Under Pressure - McCarron is terrible under pressure. One of the worst on film in this class. He overreacts to first sight of a possibly clean rusher and will sometimes leave a clean pocket. McCarron can sense pressure sometimes, but he is not usually able to react quickly enough to effectively elude it. He is a sluggish mover, and sometimes does not even react to pressure. His instincts betray him at times, causing him to scramble right into pressure. McCarron seems to be somewhere between rushed and panicked when the pocket collapses unless he gets to space, causing his accuracy and decision-making to suffer horribly. Generally once he’s off of his launch point, a checkdown or throw away is the best outcome. When McCarron does move in the pocket or eludes pressure but not to a wide open spot, he doesn’t keep the ball in a place where he can easily load up and throw. He limits his options both mentally and physically. McCarron under pressure is some ugly film. Here are some lowlights:
THE VERDICT
At the very best, McCarron is a game manager backup, and he has to be on a team with a good offensive line. If he has to react to pressure regularly, he’ll be a mess in the NFL. His excellent offensive line at Alabama hid his flaws. He was also throwing to very good wide receivers. Amari Cooper is a first-round talent, and Kevin Norwood is an underrated prospect in this year’s class. Their natural abilities created a lot more plays in the passing game than anything McCarron did, and he left a lot of big plays for them on the table with his inaccuracy deep and slow ball to the outside.
You are going to get an unathletic quarterback with good size who can make good plays in clean pockets when he is throwing short or intermediate, as long as it’s in the middle of the field. When he has to play outside of the play call, you’ll be happy as long as he isn’t sacked or turns the ball over. A team soberly looking at his film and taking the Alabama “winner” shine off of his play should only spend a late third day pick on a quarterback who will be a third QB or practice squad player to start his career, with an upside of a competent backup quarterback in the NFL.
