Knowing ADP is one of the most underrated fantasy football skills. Most importantly, it gives you an idea of when you can expect players to go off of the board, but it also gives you a window into the level of skepticism or faith that the fantasy football hive mind has in each player's ability to meet or exceed what they have done in the past, especially in 2024. With that in mind, there are players whose ADPs don't align with their past performance and projected future. Knowing where the gaps are between perception and reality is what fantasy draft season is all about. Which ADPs don't make sense?
Baker Mayfield (QB7 - 74 overall)
Mayfield is giving a scoring level in the range of the five quarterbacks going ahead of him at a two-plus round discount. Why is the fantasy hive mind skeptical about Mayfield picking up where he left off? Offensive coordinator Liam Coen did take a head coaching job in Jacksonville. The Bucs replaced him by promoting passing game coordinator Josh Grizzard to offensive coordinator. So far, it sounds like he wants even more downfield passing. If you are fading Mayfield because of Coen, you better be in on Trevor Lawrence, who will be the beneficiary of Coen's leadership. Mayfield also got even better after Dave Canales left for Carolina. Is it personnel? Mayfield actually gained a very polished receiver in Emeka Egbuka, who should be an instant contributor. Remember, Mayfield also finished as QB4 last year, even though he didn't have Chris Godwin for half of the season. There were two weeks that Sterling Shepard, Rakim Jarrett, and Trey Palmer were his starting receivers. So there's hidden upside if everyone can stay healthy. The Bucs are one of the most stable offenses in the league, and there is reason for optimism that this year can be even better. Invest with confidence.
Baker Mayfield Verdict: Smash
Daniel Jones (QB33 - 227 overall)
It is easy to forget that Jones was a low-end fantasy QB1 in 2022 with Darius Slayton, Richie James, and Isaiah Hodgins as his top three wideouts because he ran for over 700 yards and seven scores. This is important to note because his new team has used the quarterback as a runner by design (although with disastrous results). Anthony Richardson's shoulder is acting up, so Jones is likely to start Week 1, and we'll see where it goes from there. He'll have a better supporting cast of wide receivers and could benefit from a fresh start. Jones' short stint studying under Kevin O'Connell could also help him right the ship. Even if he's a failure again, Jones has demonstrated fantasy relevance, and Richardson's rocky offseason should be enough for Jones to be significantly earlier than his dirt-cheap early ADP.
Daniel Jones Verdict: Smash
Chase Brown (RB12 - 27 overall)
Brown was a borderline first-round pick in fantasy value terms after Zack Moss went out last year. Fantasy drafters are still letting him drop to the third round. Was it that the Bengals brought back Moss? He took a pay cut from $3.4 to $1.7 million, with only $375,000 guaranteed. He's not even a sure thing to make the roster, and the Bengals certainly aren't signalling optimism about his outlook. Samaje Perine? The Bengals guaranteed $400,000 of his $1.8 million salary. That doesn't scream "core contributor". Sixth-round pick Tahj Brooks is a Matt Waldman favorite, a great late dynasty rookie pick, and a potential important player in redraft leagues if Brown goes down. But he's no threat to Brown's status as the feature back. This is a high-octane offense, and Brown is heavily involved in the passing game. Brown's ADP allows you to wait until the early third to take your RB1 and still feel like you can hang with the teams that took running backs in the top five.
Chase Brown Verdict: Smash
Roschon Johnson (RB54 - 173 overall)
Johnson had the look of a back that was going to be an important part of the Bears' backfield after a solid rookie year. His yards per carry and receiving game involvement dropped off significantly after the previous regime signed D'Andre Swift to lead the backfield. The Bears have an entirely new coaching staff. Since Ben Johnson was hired, GM Ryan Poles said that he thinks Johnson was misused last year. That's a clue that the new staff will use him more and in different ways. Johnson (or seventh-round rookie Kyle Monangai) could easily capture a David Montgomery role, with lots of early down and short-yardage work, behind a retooled offensive line that will be focused on the run. It's reasonable for Johnson to be going among the backup running backs, but he should be among the first backups taken, with the possibility of him being more, not among the last.
Roschon Johnson Verdict: Smash
Drake London (WR9 - 17 overall)
Fantasy drafters want London to be a WR1, but he hasn't been one yet. Last year, Kirk Cousins was supposed to lift him to those heights with the quarterback situation improved and Arthur Smith out in Atlanta. Cousins was more like a tripod than a quarterback, and the offense suffered. London was a high-floor WR2, but failed to come close to returning the early-mid second-round draft capital that it cost to get him. Did fantasy drafters learn anything? This year, London is back in the early second round, and Michael Penix Jr. is the savior riding in on his white horse. Don't make the same mistake we did last year. Let someone else take London at his ceiling.
Drake London Verdict: Pass
Garrett Wilson (WR13 - 29 overall)
Like London, last year Wilson was expected to perform at a level he hadn't demonstrated he could reside at yet, on the strength of a veteran quarterback addition (Aaron Rodgers) unlocking value his previous subpar quarterbacks could not. Not only was Rodgers a disappointment, but he was able to convince the team to acquire his personal #1 receiver, Davante Adams, who supplanted Wilson as the #1 receiver by a decisive 114-87 margin in targets. It's clear Rodgers wasn't good for Wilson, so much so that Wilson staying in the team seemed to be tied to Rodgers being pushed out. Yes, new Jets quarterback Justin Fields isn't known for his passing prowess, but Fields does know how to lock in on his #1 receiver and fueled DJ Moore to his career year in their last season together in Chicago. In OTAs, Wilson has been used "in much more creative ways" by new offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand. Per beat writer Connor Hughes of SNYTV, he is "a player they want to get the ball to and will find ways to do." Wilson shouldn't be going in the late first round like he was last year, but he shouldn't be falling to the third round either.
Garrett Wilson Verdict: Smash
Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR16 - 34 overall)
Harrison is yet another receiver who was overdrafted last year because he failed to live up to lofty, unproven expectations. Unlike London, he has actually fallen a round plus from his 2024 second-round ADP, but is that far enough to make him attractive, or even worth considering, at ADP? Harrison was WR43 in PPR leagues on a points-per-game basis last year. Khalil Shakir, Darnell Mooney, and Jayden Reed - all players who cost a lot less than a late third-round pick - outscored him last year. There is reason to hope for improvement from Harrison in year two, but he'll have the same quarterback and head coach who did not set him up for success in year one. Harrison has dropped about 20 spots last year, and he's still grossly overpriced, which shows you just how bad his ADP was last year.
Marvin Harrison Jr. Verdict: Pass
Jakobi Meyers (WR41 - 89 overall)
Meyers was WR42 in PPR leagues last year, and he is being drafted as WR41. What's the problem with that? First of all, he was catching passes from Gardner Minshew II and Aidan O'Connell in one of the worst pass offenses in the league. Second, the team had little to speak of in terms of a running game. Third, the team fired their offensive coordinator during the season. Now they have Geno Smith, Ashton Jeanty, and Chip Kelly. This will create a significantly better environment for offensive production. Fantasy drafters are confident enough in this offense to make two Raiders (Jeanty and TE Brock Bowers) top 16 overall picks, but they are projecting no bump for Meyers. That seems short-sighted with Meyers working in the slot and outside already for Kelly, who said Meyers does "all four" of the things a wide receiver needs to do, catching passes from Smith, who said "my job is make sure I'm feeding (Meyers) the ball".
Jakobi Meyers Verdict: Smash
Jalen McMillan (WR62 - 147 overall)
When the Bucs took Emeka Egbuka with the 19th overall pick, McMillan lost some of the wind in his sails, but judging by his drop on fantasy draft boards, you would have thought the team was souring on him. Instead, we are hearing reports that McMillan is "improved and more focused than ever" and ready to "pick up where he left off last year as a touchdown-scoring machine," per long-time Bucs beat writer Scott Reynolds. McMillan was WR14 from Week 14-17 last year, but he's an afterthought in drafts. If he continues to be one of Mayfield's favorite drive-finishing targets, that will seem foolish, and if any of the Bucs' top three receivers have trouble staying on the field, McMillan will be one of the steals of 2025 fantasy drafts.
Jalen McMillan Verdict: Smash
Adam Thielen (WR64 - 158 overall)
Fantasy players left Thielen for dead on the waiver wire when he got last year, only for Thielen to be a key to the rejuvenation of Bryce Young (and Thielen's fantasy value). Thielen was WR17 from Week 12 on in PPR leagues and helped a lot of teams win championships. He decided to return to the Panthers for one more year, but fantasy drafters aren't buying that he'll be a big part of the pass offense again. The Panthers disagree, guaranteeing over seven million dollars to Thielen to return this year, which is actually a small raise from the $6.75 million he was scheduled to earn going into the offseason. Consider him a free square in the second half of drafts.
Adam Thielen Verdict: Smash
George Kittle (TE3 - 43 overall)
What does George Kittle have to do to earn the respect of fantasy drafters? Last year, he outscored Brock Bowers and Trey McBride by over a point a game in PPR leagues, and he is still going a round or even two after them. Yes, Kittle is turning 32 during the season, but he showed no signs of decline, consistently being clocked as one of the fastest tight ends in the league. Kittle is already clearly riffing with Brock Purdy, recording his highest success rate, yards per target, and catch percentage of his career with Purdy last year. You can get an elite tight end without sacrificing a pick in the first three rounds; take advantage while you still can.
George Kittle Verdict: Smash
Travis Kelce (TE6 - 83 overall)
Kelce fell from his usual perch of a first- or second-round pick to the third or fourth round last year. How did it go? Fantasy drafters aren't taking him until the seventh or eighth round this year. Kelce did manage to finish as TE7 last year, so taking him as TE6 doesn't seem egregious. When you look closer and see that all of Kelce's good games came when Rashee Rice, who was full speed during OTAs, was out last year, it's hard to see a path to him returning to TE7 value. He is clearly a player in decline, and if it continues and Rice stays healthy this year, Kelce may not even be startable in fantasy leagues.
Travis Kelce Verdict: Pass
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