Knowing ADP is one of the most underrated fantasy football skills. Most importantly, it gives you an idea of when you can expect players to go off of the board, but it also gives you a window into the level of skepticism or faith that the fantasy football hive mind has in each player's ability to meet or exceed what they have done in the past, especially in 2024. With that in mind, there are players whose ADPs don't align with their past performance and projected future. Knowing where the gaps are between perception and reality is what fantasy draft season is all about. Which ADPs don't make sense?
Baker Mayfield (QB7 - 74 overall)
Mayfield is giving a scoring level in the range of the five quarterbacks going ahead of him at a two-plus round discount. Why is the fantasy hive mind skeptical about Mayfield picking up where he left off? Offensive coordinator Liam Coen did take a head coaching job in Jacksonville. The Bucs replaced him by promoting passing game coordinator Josh Grizzard to offensive coordinator. So far, it sounds like he wants even more downfield passing. If you are fading Mayfield because of Coen, you better be in on Trevor Lawrence, who will be the beneficiary of Coen's leadership. Mayfield also got even better after Dave Canales left for Carolina. Is it personnel? Mayfield actually gained a very polished receiver in Emeka Egbuka, who should be an instant contributor. Remember, Mayfield also finished as QB4 last year, even though he didn't have Chris Godwin for half of the season. There were two weeks that Sterling Shepard, Rakim Jarrett, and Trey Palmer were his starting receivers. So there's hidden upside if everyone can stay healthy. The Bucs are one of the most stable offenses in the league, and there is reason for optimism that this year can be even better. Invest with confidence.
Baker Mayfield Verdict: Smash
Daniel Jones (QB33 - 227 overall)
It is easy to forget that Jones was a low-end fantasy QB1 in 2022 with Darius Slayton, Richie James, and Isaiah Hodgins as his top three wideouts because he ran for over 700 yards and seven scores. This is important to note because his new team has used the quarterback as a runner by design (although with disastrous results). Anthony Richardson's shoulder is acting up, so Jones is likely to start Week 1, and we'll see where it goes from there. He'll have a better supporting cast of wide receivers and could benefit from a fresh start. Jones' short stint studying under Kevin O'Connell could also help him right the ship. Even if he's a failure again, Jones has demonstrated fantasy relevance, and Richardson's rocky offseason should be enough for Jones to be significantly earlier than his dirt-cheap early ADP.
Daniel Jones Verdict: Smash
Chase Brown (RB12 - 27 overall)
Brown was a borderline first-round pick in fantasy value terms after Zack Moss went out last year. Fantasy drafters are still letting him drop to the third round. Was it that the Bengals brought back Moss? He took a pay cut from $3.4 to $1.7 million, with only $375,000 guaranteed. He's not even a sure thing to make the roster, and the Bengals certainly aren't signalling optimism about his outlook. Samaje Perine? The Bengals guaranteed $400,000 of his $1.8 million salary. That doesn't scream "core contributor". Sixth-round pick Tahj Brooks is a Matt Waldman favorite, a great late dynasty rookie pick, and a potential important player in redraft leagues if Brown goes down. But he's no threat to Brown's status as the feature back. This is a high-octane offense, and Brown is heavily involved in the passing game. Brown's ADP allows you to wait until the early third to take your RB1 and still feel like you can hang with the teams that took running backs in the top five.
Chase Brown Verdict: Smash
Roschon Johnson (RB54 - 173 overall)
Johnson had the look of a back that was going to be an important part of the Bears' backfield after a solid rookie year. His yards per carry and receiving game involvement dropped off significantly after the previous regime signed D'Andre Swift to lead the backfield. The Bears have an entirely new coaching staff. Since Ben Johnson was hired, GM Ryan Poles said that he thinks Johnson was misused last year. That's a clue that the new staff will use him more and in different ways. Johnson (or seventh-round rookie Kyle Monangai) could easily capture a David Montgomery role, with lots of early down and short-yardage work, behind a retooled offensive line that will be focused on the run. It's reasonable for Johnson to be going among the backup running backs, but he should be among the first backups taken, with the possibility of him being more, not among the last.
Roschon Johnson Verdict: Smash
Drake London (WR9 - 17 overall)
Fantasy drafters want London to be a WR1, but he hasn't been one yet. Last year, Kirk Cousins was supposed to lift him to those heights with the quarterback situation improved and Arthur Smith out in Atlanta. Cousins was more like a tripod than a quarterback, and the offense suffered. London was a high-floor WR2, but failed to come close to returning the early-mid second-round draft capital that it cost to get him. Did fantasy drafters learn anything? This year, London is back in the early second round, and Michael Penix Jr. is the savior riding in on his white horse. Don't make the same mistake we did last year. Let someone else take London at his ceiling.
Drake London Verdict: Pass
Garrett Wilson (WR13 - 29 overall)
Like London, last year Wilson was expected to perform at a level he hadn't demonstrated he could reside at yet, on the strength of a veteran quarterback addition (Aaron Rodgers) unlocking value his previous subpar quarterbacks could not. Not only was Rodgers a disappointment, but he was able to convince the team to acquire his personal #1 receiver, Davante Adams, who supplanted Wilson as the #1 receiver by a decisive 114-87 margin in targets. It's clear Rodgers wasn't good for Wilson, so much so that Wilson staying in the team seemed to be tied to Rodgers being pushed out. Yes, new Jets quarterback Justin Fields isn't known for his passing prowess, but Fields does know how to lock in on his #1 receiver and fueled DJ Moore to his career year in their last season together in Chicago. In OTAs, Wilson has been used "in much more creative ways" by new offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand. Per beat writer Connor Hughes of SNYTV, he is "a player they want to get the ball to and will find ways to do." Wilson shouldn't be going in the late first round like he was last year, but he shouldn't be falling to the third round either.
Garrett Wilson Verdict: Smash
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