As a long time IDP dynasty league player, I understand the importance of always looking ahead and trying to be prepared for the future. Trade deadlines may be gone in most leagues, but the offseason will be here soon, and now is the time to start planning ahead.
For the next few weeks, I am going to be looking at the Buy Low/Sell High IDPs who we should be targeting during the early part of the offseason. Of course, things will change once free agency and the draft get here, but for now, it's time to peer into the future as best we can and see if there will be some deals to be made once your league's offseason begins. Beginning this week, I am going to devote one week each to DL, LB, DB, and rookies. Pay particular attention to their team's circumstances and any reports about the particular player for the rest of the season and more importantly, the early part of the offseason.
This week's article will focus on defensive linemen.
Buy Low
Derrick Morgan, Tennessee Titans: Morgan suffered a torn ACL as a rookie in 2010 and he was not fully healthy in 2011 and posted subpar numbers. But last year, Morgan racked up 35 solos, 24 assists, and 6.5 sacks en route to a top 20 finish in fantasy scoring among defensive linemen. It finally appeared that the former first round pick was going to live up to his draft status and many of us expected big things from Morgan this year. Morgan racked up a sack in each of his first two games this year and it appeared he was on his way to another solid season. But Morgan has only hads two sacks since and is not even in the top 50 in fantasy scoring. The biggest concern is that Morgan, despite playing more than 70% of the snaps, only has 17 solos. This buy low is more of a gut feel than anything, in part because Morgan has been banged up this year and also showed what he is capable of last year. He is young and was a first round pick for a reason and his value is low. That tells me it's time to take a chance and see if you can get Morgan for a relatively cheap price and my instincts say you can.
Jason Pierre-Paul, New York Giants: Pierre Paul's season has been a disaster and the biggest reason is that Pierre-Paul underwent back surgery in June and has never appeared to fully recover from it. In addition, Pierre-Paul suffered a shoulder injury which just added to his woes. He has not missed a game this season but his performance has left a lot to be desired and has caused major problems for his fantasy owners. Pierre Paul only has 20 solos and two sacks all season and that is despite playing roughly 3/4's of the snaps this year. I can tell you that the majority of Pierre-Paul owners will never move him for a low price and there are very few that will even move him at all. But some owners get frustrated and others are worried about any player that has issues with his back. I doubt many will consider trading Pierre-Paul, but if you are ever going to have a chance to acquire him it is now.
Nick Fairley, Detroit Lions: At times Fairley is one of the most dominant interior linemen in the league. Other times he is totally invisible. Despite the latter, Fairley has played much better overall this year than at any time in his career, much better than his 76th place standing in fantasy scoring among defensive linemen. Fairley seems like a player that will always take plays off but there is no denying his elite talent. I believe his numbers will eventually rise closer to the level of his talent and he is one of the few interior linemen that are capable of reaching double-digit sacks. He only has 3.5 sacks this year but he did have 5.5 in 13 games last year. There is always some risk in trading for underachievers, but Fairley's numbers are too low for his owners to ask for much and now is probably the best time to take a chance on a talent like Fairley.
Andre Branch, Jacksonville Jaguars: Branch was a huge disappointment last year and until the last two games it appeared that Branch was destined to be nothing more than a bust. But he has had a sack in each of the last two games and is playing much better than at any time in his career. Normally that would not indicate that this is a time to buy low, but Branch's overall numbers this year are so low that he is still on the waiver wire in most leagues and for that reason, many owners are not even aware of what he has done in the last two weeks. Branch was a second round pick and as I have stated many times, defensive ends often take longer to develop than players at other positions. I am listing Branch as a buy low in part to let you know to grab him off the waiver wire if he is there and do it now. Otherwise, just keep Branch in mind as you head to the offseason.
Anthony Spencer, Dallas Cowboys: Spencer suffered a knee injury and underwent microfracture surgery in September. He was franchised by the Cowboys and wasplaying on a one-year contract, so it remains to be seen where he plays next year. In addition, Spencer very well could play on a team that runs a 3-4 defense and thus return to being as 3-4 outside linebacker. The bottom line is we don't know much and while the uncertainty doesn't necessarily help us, it does mean the cost to acquire Spencer should be dirt-cheap. That alone makles it worth the risk. After all, if you have very little if anything to lose and potentially something to gain, why not make an offer?
Sell High
Muhammad Wilkerson, New York Jets: Wilkerson is having a career year for the Jets, racking up 32 solos, 14 assists, and 10 sacks in his 11 games. He has already doubled his career high in sacks and still has five games left. Wilkerson is in his third season and is only 24 years old so the question that I know everyone will be asking is why on earth I would want to suggest trading a young defensive lineman with double-digit sacks? There are several reasons and the first is that Wilkerson is a 300-plus pound interior lineman that is currently playing defensive end in the Jets 3-4 defense. Second, I generally do not expect 3-4 defensive ends to be consistent top ten defensive linemen nor do I expect them to have many double-digit sack seasons. I do not consider Wilkerson an elite pass rusher despite his gaudy numbers and I think this season is the exception rather than the rule. Wilkerson's value will never be this high and that is the best time to sell.
Justin Smith, San Francisco 49ers: Smith has been remarkably consistent during his career, having racked up 40 or more solos in each of his first 11 seasons. Smith has also been among the most durable players in the league, missing just three games in his career. Smith is still playing at a high level, but has lost a step and at age 34 it is time to think about moving him. Smith will not have much trade value but when player's are approaching 35 years old you may have to bite the bullet and get what you can for him. Just so you know, the term "sell high" does not always mean sell because his value will never be higher. In the case of Smith, it means his value will keep dropping and this is as high as it will be going forward.
Osi Umenyiora, Atlanta Falcons: After spending his first nine seasons with the Giants, Umenyiora signed with the Falcons as a free agent and basically filled the void left by the departure of John Abraham. Umenyiora has given the Falcons a much-needed edge rusher and even at age 33, Umenyiora has shown he can still play at a high level. But Umenyiora will turn 34 during the 2014 season and it's just a matter of time before his pass rushing skills begin to decline. I would not expect a huge trade market for Umenyiora, but it is getting more and more difficult to find elite, pass rushing defensive ends. I don't think I would just give Umenyiora away for that reason, but he should bring decent value in return or add value to a larger trade.
Jason Hatcher, Dallas Cowboys: Hatcher spent his first seven years playing defensive end in the 3-4 defense, but moved inside to defensive tackle when the Cowboys decided to employ a 4-3 defense this season. The move has paid off big as Hatcher's nine sacks is already double his career high and he is only one solo tackle away from matching his personal best of 27, which he set last year. Hatcher is currently a borderline DL1 and although this could be a sign of things to come, Hatcher will be 32 years old and defensive tackles are rarely DL1s on a consistent basis. Hatcher's value will probably never be this high and unless you believe he will repeat these numbers, you should be planning on trying to move him.
Rob Ninkovich, New England Patriots: This one is a bit tougher because Ninkovich was a top-five defensive lineman last year and is in the top five again this year. He is 29 years old so age is not an issue at this time. Last year, Ninkovich moved from outside linebacker in a 3-4 defense to defensive end in the 4-3 and registered 33 solos, 26 assists, and a career-high 9 sacks. But this year's numbers are concerning because Ninkovich already has a whopping 41 assists and is a top five defensive lineman despite only having five sacks. No other defensive lineman has even racked up 30 assists this year. I do not think of Ninkovich as an elite pass rusher and those generally make up the majority of the top fantasy scorers among defensive linemen. When you have a player that is in the top five for two consecutive years and do not believe his talent or skills match the stats, it is definitely time to sell. I will add that moving productive players like this is among the toughest things to do in fantasy football, but if you share my opinion of Ninkovich, then you should be looking to move him and you could get a very high price in return.
