The worst pick in NFL Draft history?
Maybe . . .
If it wasn't the worst, it was the most perplexing in recent memory.
First, there was no shortage of fantasy-friendly picks early on Night 1 of the NFL Draft. We saw a record 23 offensive players taken in the first round. Fourteen offensive skill players, 10 in the first 13 picks, came off the board. Six quarterbacks, seven wide receivers, a tight end, and nine offensive linemen had their names called.
And we had that surprise.
It came when the Falcons selected Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. with the eighth pick. They did this despite having signed Kirk Cousins to a 4-year, $180 million free agent contract -- with $100 million guaranteed -- in March.
The immediate reactions were incredulous, as you might expect.
My SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio cohost, Jeff Mans, pulled zero punches as we covered the proceedings live on the air. "We're maybe witnessing the worst pick in NFL Draft history," an exasperated Mans declared as we learned who the pick was.
ESPN's Mina Kimes took a more reasoned approach, suggesting the Falcons brass were doing their team "a disservice" by not adding an immediate front-line contributor.
I'm not saying they're wrong. More that it's a matter of perspective.
Using their first-round pick on Cousins' eventual successor was not a win-now move.
The Falcons could have added a pass rusher to boost a defense that finished 25th in pressure rate. Washington wideout Rome Odunze was still available. A top offensive tackle might have helped the cause.
Those are valid NFL takes. The astonished responses came from that point of view.
But I'm a fantasy manager.
My interests lie within a narrow band of four specific players: Bijan Robinson, RB3 on the 2024 Footballguys Draft Rankings; Drake London, our WR10; Kyle Pitts, currently our TE8; and Cousins, a QB2 with upside currently going between Rounds 10 and 11, depending on where you're playing.
Otherwise?
I don't care about an edge rusher or other defensive help. The worse the Falcons' defense plays, the more Atlanta will need to lean on the players we drafted.
Beyond that, Cousins will be 36 in August. He's coming off a torn Achilles. Is he a lock to play at previous levels?
A backup with upside might best serve our fantasy needs, and the strong-armed Pennix was this year's pre-draft QB2 in Matt Waldman's Rookie Scouting Portfolio.
I get the NFL-related angst, but fantasy managers should be giddy over a pick that better ensures the outcomes of the players we're invested in.
Sorry, Falcons fans. Not sorry . . .
By the way, I discuss this situation, draft-related winners, less-fortunate outcomes, tremendous and not-so-great landing spots, and other fun stuff in my post-draft Top 5 Fantasy Headlines video. Also, the great Sigmund Bloom offers up his First-Round and Day 2 Winners and Losers and the Post-Draft Bloom 100. Gary Davenport has the IDP Winners and Losers. The incoming group of "big uglies" will impact our fortunes, too. Matt Bitonti's post-draft Offensive Line Rankings will help you sort that out.
Of course, to find more in-depth information on the 2024 class, make sure you've downloaded the Footballguys Rookie Draft Guide Version 3.0, updated to include landing spots and more.
With all that out of the way, let's get to the good stuff. We'll start with our latest look at an incoming offensive coordinator . . .
Getting Coordinated: The Eagles
In one of the most surprising collapses in NFL history, the Eagles, who had gone 26-5 since the start of their 2022 season, finished the 2023 season losing six of seven games.
The late-season meltdown led to speculation about head coach Nick Sirianni's job security and, eventually, the ousting of Sirianni's top assistants on both sides of the ball.
During his end-of-season news conference, sitting alongside general manager Howie Roseman, Sirianni acknowledged his team's offense got "a little bit stale."
Asked what offensive coordinator candidates might need to bring to the table, Sirianni explained they were looking for "a guy who has a vision, a guy who's going to call the plays, a guy who's going to be able to coach a quarterback."
Turns out, they went a step further.
As ESPN.com's Tim McManus framed it: "The hiring of Kellen Moore as offensive coordinator figures to be the most consequential move Sirianni and the Eagles make this offseason."
Indeed, Sirianni stated Moore would be "in charge of the offense" -- language he had never used before unless speaking about himself.
So Moore will have a level of power that predecessors Shane Steichen and Brian Johnson did not. The shift is understandable and necessary.
Per McManus, "Philadelphia's offense was predictable and out of sync for parts of 2023."
Moore's challenge will be to fuse his vision for the offense with successful staples from Sirianni's scheme while maximizing quarterback Jalen Hurts' skill set.
To succeed, Moore must connect with Hurts, whom McManus reports became frustrated when his desired offensive direction never materialized. He also saw Johnson, a longtime family friend, fired from the same post.
Given the importance of the mission, it's not hard to understand why the Eagles see Moore as a good fit . . .
A Record Of Success
The 35-year-old Moore played quarterback for the Lions and Cowboys before becoming the quarterbacks coach in Dallas in 2018. He took over as offensive coordinator the following season.
During his four-year stint as the Cowboys' play-caller (2019-2022), Moore orchestrated a unit that ranked second in the NFL in total offense, scoring offense, and touchdowns.
In 2021, Moore's offense led the league in total yards per game (407) and points per game (31.2) while tying for second in passing yards per game (282.4). Dak Prescott threw for a team-record 37 touchdowns on a career-high 410 completions. In his second season as a pro, CeeDee Lamb led the offense with 79 receptions for 1,102 yards and six scores. Tight end Dalton Schultz enjoyed a breakout season with 78 catches for 808 yards and eight touchdowns.
Moore spent the 2023 campaign as the Los Angeles Chargers' offensive coordinator.
Wide receiver Keenan Allen represented Los Angeles in the Pro Bowl after ranking sixth in the NFL with 108 receptions for 1,243 yards and seven touchdowns. Additionally, Justin Herbert compiled the sixth-best touchdown-to-interception ratio (2.9) and ninth-most passing touchdowns (20) in the NFL through Week 14 before the QB sustained a broken finger that ended his season.
Upon joining the Chargers, Moore laid out his intended approach.
"Will you be able to see the Air Coryell/Jason Garrett side? Absolutely," the coach said. "Will you see the West Coast and Mike McCarthy? Absolutely. We'll keep things in place here that [Herbert] feels really, really good about, and we'll explore."
Expect him to execute a similar plan in Philadelphia.
Best-case scenario, Moore's scheme will be innovative enough to keep defenses off balance and flexible enough to incorporate winning elements of the offense that have been in place for three years under Sirianni . . .
There Will Be Changes
One thing we're sure to see is more pre-snap motion under Moore.
The Chargers finished eighth in pre-snap motion (25.9 percent) last season, while the Eagles ranked last at 10.9 percent. Hurts will likely operate under center more, as the Chargers used that look 39 percent of the time (seventh most) compared to 7.1 percent for Philadelphia, also last.
If Moore, Sirianni, and Hurts can get it all together, it's not difficult to envision the offense rebounding.
If they can't, another offseason of change will be coming in Philadelphia . . .
Soaking It In
Hurts is excited to work with Moore and learn a new system. But he also craves continuity, which has eluded him for much of his football career. In college -- three years at Alabama and one at Oklahoma -- Hurts never had consecutive seasons with the same play-caller.
That cycle has followed him to the pros, and now Hurts is adjusting to Moore's voice and system.
"I'm just all ears. I'm a sponge. I think there's some beauty in that," Hurts said. "I'm just in sponge mode. I'm letting them do what it is they're going to do, and then we kind of adjust from there. I think the thing that we all have to understand is the importance of a foundation in something.
"So I want the coaches to declare their foundation in terms of what they want something to be, how they want it to look, and then obviously you're going to adjust from there."
It remains to be seen how the process will play out between now and September when the Eagles leave for Brazil to kick off the season against the Packers.
Still, it's no surprise Hurts opened 2024 as QB2 on the Footballguys Draft Rankings. There will be no value gained from last year's disappointing finish . . .
With Good Reason
The Eagles have spared no expense in assembling an impressive supporting cast.
The team announced before last week's draft they had agreed to terms with wide receiver A.J. Brown on a three-year contract extension worth $96 million.
The star wideout will reportedly make $84 million guaranteed, which keeps him under contract until 2029.
At $32 million per season, Brown is the highest-paid wide receiver in NFL history.
The former Titan made his third Pro Bowl last season after catching a career-high 106 passes for 1,456 yards and seven touchdowns. He also set an NFL record by recording 125-plus receiving yards in six consecutive games.
Brown's deal came less than two weeks after the Eagles signed fellow receiver DeVonta Smith to a three-year extension, taking him to 2028.
Even though he's playing second fiddle to Brown, Smith's numbers have been substantial. He's one of only seven receivers in the NFL with 175-plus receptions, 2,500-plus receiving yards, and 15-plus receiving touchdowns since the start of the 2022 season.
Dynasty investors take note. The Eagles also have Hurts under contract until 2029, keeping the trio together for at least five more seasons.
Smith and Brown became the first receiver tandem in Eagles history to reach 1,000 yards receiving each in 2022. They repeated the feat last season. Teamed with Hurts, they've helped fuel an offense that ranks fifth in points per game (with 26.8) over the past two seasons, even with last year's disappointing finish.
Brown is going in the first round of best-ball drafts, as he should. Smith, who finished as WR9 and WR16 the last two seasons, currently carries a WR25 Average Draft Position (ADP) on BestBall 10s.
If you're like me and value matters in these drafts, Smith will be on a lot of your rosters . . .
Going Contrarian At Running Back
The Eagles also paid to land former Giant Saquon Barkley, signing the veteran running back to a three-year, $37.75 million contract in free agency.
That's real money in a league where the top-paid back, Christian McCaffrey, makes $16 million a year on average. Only six running backs make over $10 million annually, including Barkley at $13 million.
What prompted Philly to buck the trend of devaluing the position?
Well, it turns out that devaluation was the very reason.
"Has the pendulum swung so far at this position -- I mean, the guy touches the ball 300 times a year, hopefully," Roseman said. "There's not a lot of other skill position players that are touching the ball that many times and having that effect."
Barkley rushed for over 5,200 yards over six seasons with the New York Giants and added 288 catches for 2,100 yards. He did so under less-than-ideal conditions, which was also a consideration.
"He exhibited a very special skill set both in the running and the passing game that we think certainly can be maximized by being on a team with better skill positions, quarterback, offensive line," CEO Jeffrey Lurie said.
Judging by their comments, the Eagles expect Barkley to be central to their offense, and fantasy managers believe he will.
That's why Barkley opens as our RB5, which aligns with his RB6 ADP on BestBall 10s.
Why the trust?
As Bloom recently suggested, the Eagles always have a plan -- a good plan -- and they execute it well.
No organization has shown a clearer plan and the ability to stick it and see it through this offseason than the Eagles. https://t.co/GmMxYu5WM2
— Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom) April 15, 2024
Fantasy managers expect to benefit from it . . .
It's Always Sunny In Detroit
As NFL.com's Kevin Patra framed it, "The Sun God will continue shining in Detroit."
The day before Brown signed his deal in Philadelphia, Amon-Ra St. Brown and the Lions agreed to a four-year contract extension. This deal, which keeps him in Detroit through 2028, also made St. Brown the NFL's highest-paid receiver . . .
Until Brown surpassed him 24 hours later.
Still, Dynasty managers should rejoice. This is an ideal outcome for long-term fantasy investors. It's also great for the Lions.
It's even better for St. Brown.
The $120 million extension, including $77 million guaranteed (another 24-hour record), gives him $30 million yearly in new money, matching Tyreek Hill's deal in Miami.
The 2021 fourth-round pick earned it.
St. Brown immediately became the Lions' No. 1 receiver as a rookie and raised his standing each subsequent season. In three campaigns, the USC product has a pair of Pro Bowl nods, 2023 first-team All-Pro honors, and generated 3,588 total receiving yards and 21 touchdowns.
In 2023, St. Brown raised his game to new heights, racking up 1,515 yards and 10 touchdowns on 119 catches, all career-highs, helping the Lions to their first division title since 1993.
Among all receivers, St. Brown finished the season third in yards and catches, tied for fourth in touchdowns, third in first downs (75), tied for third in catches per game (7.4), and fifth in yards per contest (94.7).
Since 2021, St. Brown is eighth in total receiving yards (3,588), fifth in receptions (315), and seventh in touchdowns (21), which puts him in the top 17 in Lions history in all three categories.
According to ESPN Stats and Information, he is one of only three players in NFL history to have 90 or more receptions in each of his first three seasons, joining Odell Beckham Jr (2014-16) and Michael Thomas (2016-18).
A precise route runner, St. Brown is an elite separator, creating clear passing lanes for Jared Goff.
He's also super-reliable. According to Next Gen Stats, St. Brown had two drops in 2023, amounting to a 1.2 percent drop rate, the lowest among wideouts with at least 125 targets.
As Patra suggested, "He's the complete package, a player who can win at every level and offers run-after-catch ability."
The Lions realize this and treat St. Brown as such. Per Next Gen Stats, they targeted him on 29.1 percent of his routes last season, the 8th-highest in the NFL (with a minimum of 400 routes).
Much like the Lions did, fantasy managers can expect to pay up.
St. Brown is currently WR5 on the Footballguys 2024 Rankings, both redraft and Dynasty formats. You'll find no discount in current best balls. He's also going as WR5, with an ADP of 7th overall on BestBall 10s.
It's reasonable to believe that price will persist into the fall.
Next, we should all start rooting for the Lions to strike a deal that ties St. Brown to current triggerman Goff for the long-term, much like Brown and Smith are tied to Hurts . . .
Along Those Lines
Three years ago, the Rams decided to move on from Goff. They found a win-win with the Lions and Matthew Stafford.
It was an immediate win for the Rams and Stafford. It has become a win for the Lions and Goff and might keep improving.
"In hindsight, [being traded to the Lions] was the greatest thing that ever happened to me, for my career and my development as a human," Goff recently said. "Being shipped off and being sent to a place to die, essentially, is what a lot of people think it was, and I was never going to allow that to happen.
"I'm fortunate enough to be around a lot of good coaches and players in Detroit that support me and help me reach my potential."
Goff, who heads into the final season of a four-year extension he signed before the trade, and the Lions have had contract talks, but Adam Schefter of ESPN reports that no deal is imminent.
Detroit wants to get something done. They've found a quarterback who has taken them to the brink of the Super Bowl. He's only 29, and the team continues to add pieces around him.
Better still, Goff, who finished last season as QB7, remains a value for fantasy managers; he's been drafted as QB14 so far this year . . .
Back To The Future In Big D
As DallasCowboys.com's Patrik Walker wrote, "He's back. There's no need to check the date on your calendar because it is indeed 2024, and, yes, Ezekiel Elliott is preparing to suit up for the Dallas Cowboys."
This after the two sides agreed to terms on a deal for the 2024 season.
"We are keenly interested in seeing what the future might look like with Zeke," said owner and general manager Jerry Jones following Day 1 of the 2024 NFL Draft.
The Cowboys released Elliott following the 2022 season due solely to a salary cap crunch. He signed with New England and delivered a solid campaign, producing 955 yards from scrimmage with five touchdowns in five starts for the Patriots. His 235 touches under Bill Belichick prove that the 28-year-old still has plenty of tread on his tires.
How much?
Well, he finished the year as fantasy's RB30. But that's not the whole story.
Elliott took on the featured role after a high-ankle sprain suffered in Week 13 sidelined starter Rhamondre Stevenson for the rest of the season.
The results might surprise you.
Elliott was fantasy's RB7 from Weeks 13 through 18. His 15.6 point-per-game average over that span was 12th best among all NFL backs.
We call that RB1 production.
So, it's no surprise the Cowboys believe Elliott can still be a starter in the NFL.
"Yes, yes," said Jones when asked that very question.
Considering none of the Cowboys' eight draft picks was a running back, Elliott reacquiring the role of RB1 in Dallas is all but promised.
We'll likely see Rico Dowdle and perhaps Deuce Vaughn or Royce Freeman get some looks, but Elliott is a proven talent who rarely misses time at the most brutal position in football.
He's also being drafted as RB60 in current best-ball drafts.
That's going to change, but Elliott rising to RB3 prices would still be a value given the anticipated workload in a high-powered Dallas offense . . .
The Final Word
That's it for this week's Fantasy Notebook. Look for my weekly Fantasy Headlines video, which will now be on The Audible Channel, one of three Footballguys YouTube channels.
That's right. Three.
Instead of an array of titles on one channel, you can now easily find the show you want to watch. We're still producing the same great content, so you won't miss a thing. Be sure to subscribe to all three channels -- The Audible, the Footballguys Dynasty, and the Footballguys Fantasy Football -- and hit the notification bell to get in on the fun in real time!
I appreciate your time and look forward to meeting you here again next week for more stories that will shape (and allow us to gain leverage over) the value of players we'll be leaning on for fantasy production.
See you then.
