As a long time IDP dynasty league player, I understand the importance of always looking ahead and trying to be prepared for the future. Trade deadlines may be gone in most leagues, but the offseason will be here soon, and now is the time to start planning ahead.
For the next few weeks, I am going to be looking at the Buy Low/Sell High IDPs who we should be targeting during the early part of the offseason. Of course, things will change once free agency and the draft get here, but for now, it's time to peer into the future as best we can and see if there will be some deals to be made once your league's offseason begins. Beginning this week, I am going to devote one week each to DL, LB, DB, and rookies. Pay particular attention to their team's circumstances and any reports about the particular player for the rest of the season and more importantly, the early part of the offseason.
This week's article will focus on linebackers.
Buy Low
Colin McCarthy, Tennessee Titans: For whatever reason, McCarthy has fallen out of favor with the coaching staff in Tennessee and has been playing behind journeyman linebacker Moise Fokou, who has four or fewer solos in six of his eight games this year. McCarthy clearly has more talent and when Fokou missed four games due to an injury, McCarthy racked up 28 solos and looked good doing it. Many, including myself, thought McCarthy earned more playing time but he found himself right back on the bench. That is not the worst thing in the world for us that want to buy low and in fact it can drive prices way down. When a talented player is not playing much but produces when he does, you may want to inquire about his availability during the very early stages of the offseason. I also believe it would be much better if McCarthy did not play much the rest of the year because his price will drop even more.
Perry Riley, Washington: Riley has posted mid-LB3 numbers or thereabouts for most of the season and that's not all that bad when you consider he plays next to London Fletcher. Even though the 38-year-old Fletcher has obviously lost a step, he is still making enough plays to cut into Riley's numbers. Fletcher is likely to retire following the season and Riley should see more opportunities to make plays in all aspects of the game. Despite being a mid-LB3, Riley is very much under-the-radar and that generally keeps the cost of acquiring him at a reasonable rate. If there is ever an offseason to make a move on Riley, it is the upcoming one and the sooner the better. I think Riley will continue to be overlooked until Fletcher officially retires. Whenever that actually happens, Riley's name will be mentioned more and the cost to acquire him will increase. Don't wait for that to happen.
Bruce Carter, Dallas Cowboys: Carter was one of my favorite linebackers coming out of college and lost his rookie season due to a torn ACL he suffered during his senior season at North Carolina. Carter has plenty of talent, but has struggled mightily at times this year and in fact, he was benched for Ernie Sims earlier this season. I still think Carter has enough talent to play at a high level and believe he has LB2 upside. But right now he is not playing well enough to be anything more than a bench player. That is a good thing for us IDPers because Carter's value is low now and that is exactly what we like to see. If you believe in his talent, you might want to make an offer for him. Also remember that Carter missed his entire rookie year because of the torn ACL and this is only the second season Carter has actually played.
Mason Foster, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Foster seems to get lost in the shuffle in Tampa and a big reason for that is because he plays next to stud outside linebacker Lavonte David. But part is because Foster has been inconsistent and that has caused him to at times be relegated to playing two downs, especially in past years. Foster has top 20 talent but seems to post mid-LB3 numbers. He has had four or fewer solos six times this year and that is why he only puts up LB3-4 type numbers. But I tend to value talent and if the value is low enough, I don't mind taking a chance on making a trade. I think foster will cost more than anyone in this list but unless it is unreasonable, I say take a chance.
Desmond Bishop, Minnesota Vikings: I will keep this one short. Bishop has not played well at all this year and it is fair to wonder if all of the injuries have sapped his speed and athletic ability. That very well may be the case and it probably is more likely to be true than not. However, sometimes players just need more time to heal and get back to full strength. The odds that Bishop returns to his old playmaking self are probably low, but he is on waivers in many leagues and dirt cheap to acquire in others. I see no harm whatsoever in using up a roster spot on a player who has produced in the past. Just keep your expectations low and let your offer reflect that in terms of cost. Bishop's value is near zero and that is why you may want to take a chance and see what happens in offseason workouts and training camp.
Sell High
Robert Mathis, Indianapolis Colts: Mathis has 15.5 sacks and has already shattered his career high of 11, which he accomplished four times. Unfortunately for us fantasy players, those gaudy numbers are not even enough to place Mathis in the top 20 in fantasy scoring among linebackers. The fact is, very few 3-4 outside linebackers can be considered studs because most do not rack up enough tackles on a consistent basis. That more or less sums up how I feel regarding 3-4 outside linebackers. In fact, James Harrison is the only 3-4 outside linebacker in recent memory that I considered a stud linebacker and it was largely because his tackle numbers were extremely high for a 3-4 outside linebacker. Mathis only has 32 solos and that is especially low when you consider that a sack counts as a solo tackle. In addition to all that, Mathis will be 33 years old in a couple of months and that is an age when some pass rushers begin to decline. The bottom line is Mathis will never have trade value this high and he should be near the top of any sell high list that you have.
DeAndre Levy, Detroit Lions. Levy is currently posting mid-LB1 numbers and has been for most of the season. He is arguably the biggest surprise on the IDP side of fantasy football because he has never been more than a LB4-type, which is basically a matchup-dependent starter at best. For most of the season, I have been waiting for (an expecting) Levy's numbers to come back down to earth and in fact listed him as a sell high earlier this season. Now that Levy has posted LB1 numbers for almost an entire season, the question is why is he an offseason sell-high candidate? Basically, his tackle numbers are not elite and a huge part of his scoring comes from his six interceptions, which leads all linebackers, and 13 passes defended, which is third among linebackers. Big play numbers tend to vary greatly from year to year and I just can't see Levy repeating them. He is at the very top of my sell high list and that includes all positions.
Nick Roach, Oakland Raiders: Roach is posting borderline LB1 numbers and like Levy, his tackle numbers are not at a level with what I consider to be LB1 material. He has racked up 5.5 sacks and added three forced fumbles and those plays are valuable in terms of fantasy points and if that does not occur on a consistent year-to-year basis, the stats skew the total fantasy points. Roach, who will turn 29 before the start of the 2014 season, already has career highs in solos, assists, sacks, and forced fumbles. I consider Roach a marginal talent at best and that combined with big plays skewing his numbers automatically place him in the selling category. I am unsure of what kind of value you can get for Roach, but I do not expect him to be a LB1 again and that pretty much means Roach is a must sell during the early part of the offseason.
A.J. Hawk, Green Bay Packers: Hawk is yet another linebacker that is registering career-type numbers and for a player that will turn 30 years old next month, it's generally an odd time for personal bests in several major categories. Hawk is on pace to best his career high of 84 solos and he has already set or matched career bests in assists and sacks. The funny thing is there were rumblings prior to the season that Hawk may be released. He is currently ranked 15th among linebackers and that is much higher than I ever valued Hawk. Hawk has never had more than 84 solos and his career average per game is around 4.5. That is not what I want in a LB2, which is where Hawk currently ranks and that by itself tells me it's time to sell, and sooner rather than later. His name recognition along with his stats for this season should help you in negotiations.
Daryl Smith, Baltimore Ravens: After only playing in two games because of a groin injury last season, Smith has enjoyed a resurgence of sorts this year and is currently a top 10 fantasy scorer among linebackers. There are red flags and some are similar to that of Levy and Hawk. Smith only has 47 solos and the only player in the top 30 with less is Robert Mathis and he is a pass rushing 3-4 outside linebacker with 15.5 sacks. Smith has an insane 48 assists and has added 3.5 sacks and his 14 passes defended have shattered his previous best of 8. Those low solo-tackle numbers and ridiculously high passes defended numbers scream sell high to me.
